Bolton urges Congress to take closer look at cipher

The US Congress should look at the allegedly leaked cipher about ousting of Imran Khan, former prime minister of Pakistan, when it returns from summer recess, said a former US national security adviser John Bolton.

In an interview with VoA broadcasting service, recorded this week, Bolton said he worries about the Biden administration’s foreign policy about South Asia because it’s not clearly defined.

Asked if the language used in the cipher was usual for a State Department official, the former Trump and Bush administrations official said he saw the report published by The Intercept news site and noted that it was about an effort to get Pakistan’s support against Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

“I would be stunned if that’s exactly what they said. It would be remarkable for the State Department, under any administration, but particularly under the Biden administration, to be calling for Imran Khan’s overthrow.”

The purported cipher that the Pakistan Embassy in Washington sent to Islamabad in March last year, contained the embassy’s account of a meeting between US State Department officials, including Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu, and Pakistani envoy Asad Majeed Khan.

It quotes Lu as telling the Pakistani envoy, “I think if the no-confidence vote against the Prime Minister succeeds, all will be forgiven in Washington because the Russia visit is being looked at as a decision by the Prime Minister. Otherwise, I think it will be tough going ahead.”

Bolton said even if the text published by The Intercept was close to being true, it would be a problem. So, I hope that when Congress comes back from summer recess in early September, perhaps they can take a look at that and find out how accurate that report was. 

In reply to another question, Bolton said Biden administration officials don’t know what their strategic imperatives are. And it’s been confused and inarticulate on the situation in Pakistan.

Explaining his position on the current political situation in Pakistan, he said, “I do not agree with Imran khan on everything he has ever said, and he doesn’t agree with me but when the military take it to the point of dismantling a legitimate political party (and) putting … an elected leader like Imran khan in jail for no apparent reason, they are contributing to delegitimizing their own institution.”

Commenting on the demand by some US lawmakers that Washington should raise this issue with Pakistani authorities, Bolton urged the Biden administration to take a clear position before the terrorists, China and Russia take advantage of the situation.

 

Iran requires US$9 billion for developing Makran Coast Line

The Secretary of Makran Coast Development Council said developing the cost line requires three years of work and US$9 billion of investment, Fars News Agency reported.

Speaking to Fars, Hossein Dehghan said the need for developing the cost line came under the spotlight nearly 15 years ago when stressed by the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Seyyed Ali Khamenei.

“Over the past 15 years, important measures have been taken in this regard, however, it has not been enough,” Dehghan noted.

According to the official, distance from the center and lack of infrastructure have been the two main obstacles in the way of attracting investment in the mentioned region.

Makran is a historical region in Iran that runs from mountains west of Jask all the way to parts of Pakistan's Baluchistan province in the southwest along the Sea of Oman.

Iran has recently constructed significant nautical and commercial infrastructure in a number of Makran districts, particularly at Chabahar port, which serves as a vital trade route between the Indian Ocean and landlocked nations in Central Asia.

Earlier in June, the head of Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization (PMO) announced a plan for attracting over US$390 million of domestic investment in the Makran Coast.

Ali-Akbar Safaei said that so far, the private sector has invested more than US$215 million in the region and the country’s small ports.

He also noted that good measures have been taken in the foreign investment sector, which will hopefully bear results soon.

Back in November 2022, President Ebrahim Raisi called for a quick development of the south and southeastern shores of Iran, namely the Makran coastline.

Raisi stated that plans for the development of the Makran coasts by the government and the private sector might assist the comparatively underdeveloped region.

Saudi crown prince meets Iranian foreign minister

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on Friday in the highest-level talks since the countries reconciled in March after years of bitter rivalry that destabilized the region.

The unscheduled meeting in Jeddah came a day after Amirabdollahian had declared ties between the countries were on the right track as he met his Saudi counterpart Prince Faisal bin Farhan.

After the meeting, Iran's semi-official news agency Tasnim reported Abdollahian as saying the de facto Saudi ruler had accepted his invitation to visit Tehran.

The Saudi crown prince has pushed to reorient Saudi foreign policy in recent years amid troubles in its historically close relationship with the United States.

"Discussions were frank, beneficial and productive," Abdollahian said in a social media post after meeting the prince, adding that the countries agree on the security and development of all in the region.

Footage of the meeting on Iranian state media showed Prince Mohammed and Amirabdollahian smiling as they spoke, while Prince Faisal and the Iranian delegation looked on.

Rivalry between Iran's revolutionary, Shi'ite Muslim leaders and Saudi Arabia's Sunni ruling family dominated the Middle East for years as they competed for influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Bahrain amid a wave of sectarian bloodshed.

However, China brokered a rapprochement in March this year leading to a resumption of full diplomatic relations, which Saudi Arabia had broken off in 2016 when protesters attacked its Tehran embassy over Riyadh's execution of a prominent Shi'ite cleric.

Prince Faisal visited Tehran in June and said he hoped Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi would visit the kingdom at the appropriate time.

After years of rivalry, and with some of the main regional arenas for their competition more stable than in previous years, both sides have reason to change tack.

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wanted to end political and economic isolation pushed by the United States and saw new relations with Saudi Arabia as a way to do so, Iranian officials have said.

Saudi Arabia had meanwhile lost confidence in United States commitment to shared regional security concerns and wanted to bolster ties with China, which has retained good relations with Iran. This month it succeeded in getting China to attend a diplomatic meeting on Ukraine that Beijing had earlier avoided.

Prince Faisal also spoke by phone with US Secretary General Antony Blinken, with the pair discussing more coordination to boost security and stability in the Middle East region, Saudi state media reported on Friday.

 

 

Saudi Arabia discusses defense cooperation

Saudi Assistant Minister of Defense Eng. Talal Al-Otaibi discussed various aspects of defense cooperation with senior officials of Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran. The discussions were held on the sidelines of the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security.

Eng. Al-Otaibi, headed the delegation of the Saudi Ministry of Defense that participated in the conference. More than 800 delegates from 76 countries and six international organizations took part in the conference.

They included 26 defense ministers and 16 deputy defense ministers and chiefs of general staff in addition to senior defense and security policy makers from various countries.

Delegations from 12 more countries, led by department chiefs, as well as ambassadors and military attaches accredited to Russia also attended.

The conference aimed to discuss modern military challenges and threats, and to enhance the benefit and keep abreast of all that is proposed by decision-makers and experts interested in the fields of politics, defense and security in the world.

On the sidelines of the conference, Assistant Defense Minister Al-Otaibi met with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin. During the meeting, they discussed ways to enhance defense cooperation between the two friendly countries.

A number of issues of common concern also figured in the talks.

During the meetings, they reviewed the bilateral relations between the Kingdom and friendly countries in the defense fields, and ways to develop and enhance them.

Al-Otaibi also met with Minister of Defense Li Shangfu, head of the Chinese delegation; Secretary General and Deputy Minister of Defense Hammood Uz Zaman Khan, head of the Pakistani delegation; and Deputy Chief of the General Staff Brig. Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh, the head of the Iranian delegation.

 

Pakistan Stock Exchange returning to business as usual

The week ended on August 18, 2023 witnessed investors’ sentiments swaying in either direction owing to major developments on the political front. The caretaker set up was finally announced with Anwaarul Haq Kakar taking charge as Prime Minister and announcement of portfolios of 24-member cabinet. However, general elections seem to be delayed owing to higher population numbers requiring fresh constituency delimitations.

The first gift of the interim government was hike in fuel prices, said to be in line with global oil price hikes and IMF SBA requiring fiscal discipline. Further, hikes in power tariffs added to an already high inflationary environment, coupled with high interest rates have been hurting industrial output particularly the textile sector, which has been hit with added gas curtailments.

The latest LSMI numbers stand at 114.83 for FY23, indicating a drop of 10.26%YoY. Further, PKR remained under pressure against the US$ with the biggest issue being the spread between interbank and open market rate, at PKR295.78/US$, down 2.46%WoW).

The benchmark index opened the week at 48,424 points, and closing at 48,218 points, down 205 points or 0.43%WoW.

Average daily traded volume was recorded at 175 million shares, as compared to 255 million shares a week ago, down by 31.50%WoW.

The other key news driving the market during the week included: 1) RDA inflows exceeded US$6.5 billion, with accounts crossing 600,000 in number; 2) K-Electric recovering PKR24.5 billion from consumers, through PKR1.52/unit surcharge imposed; 3) Federal Government debt spiked by 21.38%YoY to PKR60.8 trillion in the last month of last financial year; 4) Debt servicing reached PKR5.8 trillion; 5) Pakistan’s total debt, liabilities surged to PKR77 trillion at the end of last financial year; 5) Foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank were up by US$12 million to US$8 billion; 6) SNGPL based AGL and Fatima Fert (Sheikhupura plant) gas supply extended to March 2024 to address urea production shortfalls and 7)PRL dismissed news regarding inability to manage Russian crude oil processing.

Buying was witnessed in Automobile Parts & Accessories, emerging as the top performer recording gains, whilst Woolen saw major selling. Major selling was recorded by Banks/DFI with a net sell of US$3.89 million. Insurance companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$4.05 million.

Top performing scrips during the week were: SYS, PABC, THALL, JDWS, and AIRLINK, while laggards included LOTCHEM, FCEPL, CNERGY, ENGRO, and BOP.

Volume leaders were: YOUW; OGDC; DGKC; PPP; KHYT.

Analysts anticipate the market to remain on positive trajectory owing to a safe passage towards the caretaker setup. However, due to the IMF’s strict conditions with regards to fiscal discipline and a move towards the general elections, market performance may remain volatile with some cushion coming from bilateral/ multilateral inflow commitments and elevated reserves’ level compared to prior periods.

They continue to reiterate following a cautious approach to stock picking and continue to advocate dollar-denominated revenue stream scrips (Technology and E&P sector) to hedge against currency risk or high dividend yielding scrips.

Pakistan: Interim setup likely to remain in place a little longer

Over the months I have been saying that current account deficit and budget deficit are the outcome of “Confidence Deficit”. However, the team headed by Shehbaz Sharif, spent most of the time talking about non-issues.

Please allow me to say that Pakistanis were ready to bear the brunt, but unwillingness of the ruling junta to cut contain its extravaganzas, created rebellious attitude. Now, top of the agenda items should be bridging the confidence deficit, curtailing extravaganzas, facilitating the local manufacturers and exporters.

The economic managers must stop saying “these are the conditions of IMF” and come up with a home grown plan. Restoring the competitiveness of the local manufactures can not only help in boosting exports but containing inflation and generating new employment and taxes.

It is encouraging that the Caretaker Prime Minister, Anwaarul Haq Kakar, has assembled a small cabinet comprising of 24-members, which sworn in on Thursday. This can also be termed the implementation of a technocratic framework. One has all the reasons to believe that the setup has been put in place to serve the country beyond 90 days due to the potential delay in holding scheduled elections.

This extended period presents a unique opportunity to the caretaker government to spearhead essential economic reforms. Unburdened by political considerations, they can make tough but necessary decisions to jumpstart the economy. Notably, the caretaker setup comprises of accomplished professionals, particularly in key ministries such as Finance, Foreign Affairs, and Power. This strategic placement underscores their significance in the forthcoming period.

The Prime Minister's unwavering commitment to address pressing economic concerns is evident in his swift actions. His decision to transfer DISCOs (Distribution Companies) to provincial authorities, his efforts to attract investments through the SIFC, and the prompt convening of the inaugural cabinet meeting on Friday, all reflect the priority he places on resolving these issues.

 

 

Resumption of Saudi Iran ties pivotal for regional security

Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan has affirmed Saudi Arabia's desire to strengthen bilateral relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran and his country's keenness to discuss ways to activate agreements between the two countries.

Addressing a joint press conference with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in Riyadh on Thursday, Prince Faisal said the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran marked a pivotal moment for regional security.

Amir-Abdollahian’s visit to Riyadh follows the reestablishment of diplomatic relations between Riyadh and Tehran, brokered by China in March, after seven years of no formal ties.

"Within the framework of the implementation of the agreement, the missions of both countries have resumed their work, and so have the ambassadors-designate," Prince Faisal said.

Prince Faisal said that the Kingdom is keen to activate security and economic agreements that were inked with Iran. He also conveyed Saudi Arabia’s gratitude to Iran for its support of the Kingdom’s bid to host World Expo 2030.

For his part, Amir-Abdollahian described the discussions in Riyadh fruitful. He said that the Islamic Republic values the role Saudi Arabia plays in the region, adding that the two countries can work together to resolve lingering regional issues.

Amir-Abdollahian said that relations with Saudi Arabia were moving in the right direction and stressed that his country was determined to strengthen relations with the Kingdom.

He added that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi will visit Saudi Arabia soon.

Prince Faisal had made a landmark visit to Tehran in June, where he met with Amir-Abdollahian and President Ebrahim Raisi.

Under the deal signed in March, Riyadh and Tehran agreed to reopen embassies and consulates in each other’s territories and implement security and economic cooperation agreements that were signed over 20 years ago.

Saudi Arabia severed ties with Iran in 2016 following an attack on its embassy in Tehran and consulate in Mashhad.