Can United States keep Niger under its claws?

The United States appears to be caught in the horns of a dilemma, trying to balance a desire to maintain relations with Niger whose government cannot legally receive US aid, and the consequences that would accrue if US-Niger relations were severed. The clock is ticking on the fate of US-Niger relations, and there seems to be little any US official can do to change the outcome.

Lately, Acting Deputy Secretary of State for the United States Victoria Nuland made her third visit to Niger in the past two years. She was in the African country to respond to the July 26 military coup, which saw the ouster of the constitutionally-elected President Mohamed Bazoum by a group of military officers, operating under the umbrella of the newly-formed National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland, led by the commander of the presidential guard, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, who subsequently declared himself to be the new head of state. 

Niger and Nigeria are two separate countries in the African continent. Since they are neighboring countries with similar names, most people get confused about the difference between Niger and Nigeria. Niger is located in Western Africa. It is a landlocked country surrounded by Libya, Chad, Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Algeria. Niger is the biggest country in the West Africa with a land area of almost 1,270,000 square kilometers. However, about 80% of its land area lies in the Sahara desert. It has remained a French colony. The religion of the majority of the population in Niger is Islam. Niger ranks bottom in the United Nation’s Human Development Index. This country faces many challenges such as desert terrain, inefficient agriculture, overpopulation, poor educational level, poverty of people, poor health care, and environmental degradation. The main agricultural exports of Niger are peanuts and cotton. It is a big exporter of Uranium.

Nuland had sought a meeting with the ousted president, Bazoum, as well as the leader of the new military government, General Tchiani. She was denied both, and instead held a very strained dialogue with Tchiani’s military chief, General Moussa Salaou Barmou, who headed a delegation of lesser officers.

The reasoning behind the American game of semantics is that, by law, if the US recognizes the coup as a coup, then it must cease all military-to-military interactions between a force of some 1,100 US military personnel currently stationed in Niger, and its military counterparts, as well as all other forms of US-funded aid.

The law known as Section 7008 (of Public Law 117-328, Division K), specifically states that no funds appropriated by Congress in support of State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs (SFOPS) “shall be obligated or expended to finance directly any assistance to the government of any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup d’état or decree.” 

During her 2-hour discussions with the Tchiani government delegation, Nuland made it clear that while US relations were currently suspended, they were not permanently halted. In a post-meeting video press conference, Nuland emphasized the consequences of the failure to return President Bazoum to power with General Barmou, a Nigerien special forces officer who had been trained at US military schools and had extensive interaction with US military trainers in Niger.

Barmou’s personal experience with the US military is in many ways the personification of a relationship that today serves as the foundation of America’s military presence and mission in West Africa.

The US, France, and other European partners have been engaged in a years-long campaign, together with their West African partners, to combat Islamic extremism in the Sahel region of Africa. Niger, which hosts two major US bases, one outside the capital of Niamey known as Base 101, and a second, Air Base 201, in Agadez – a city located on the southern edge of the Sahara. Both bases support US intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations conducted by MQ-9 Reaper drones and fixed-wing aircraft flown by a Joint Special Operations Aviation Detachment, as well as other US military operations, including military airlift and special forces training detachments (France also maintains a significant military presence in Niger, numbering over 1,000, and there are several hundred other military personnel from a variety of European Union (EU) nations.

With the collapse of the US, French, EU, and United Nations military presence in neighboring Mali, and in the aftermath of a military coup in Chad, Niger has emerged as the last remaining bastion of the US-led anti-terrorism effort in the Sahel. If the US were to cut relations with Niger because of the coup, there would be no Western-oriented anti-terrorism efforts remaining to counter the threat of Al Qaeda and Islamic State terrorism in the region.

From Washington’s perspective, the greatest threat that would emerge from any break in the military-to-military assistance between the US and Niger is not the potential spread of Islamic fundamentalist-inspired terrorism, but rather Russian influence, especially in the form of military security support allegedly provided by Wagner Group, a private military company whose African operations appear to operate in sync with Russian foreign policy objectives.

Prior to last month’s Russian-African Summit, Prigozhin had met with Wagner forces who had relocated to Belarus in the aftermath of the abortive June 23-24 insurrection – which resulted in halting Wagner operations in Donbass – during which he emphasized the importance Africa would play in future Wagner activities. Wagner's presence has been reported in several African countries, including the Central African Republic, Libya, and Mali. Members of the senior leadership of the coup have reportedly met with Wagner officials in Mali, to discuss security cooperation between Wagner and Niger. During her meeting with the coup government, Victoria Nuland singled out the potential deployment of Wagner into Niger as a worrisome development and indicated that she pressed upon her Nigerien counterparts her assessment regarding the detrimental role played by Wagner regarding African security. The reported meeting between Wagner and Niger representatives indicates that Nuland’s message did not resonate with hosts.

There is an option that neither Nuland nor her boss, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have yet given voice to. In early 2003, the US Congress amended Section 7008 to provide for the Secretary of State to seek a waiver on the grounds of the national security interests of the United States.

There are two major obstacles for the US when it comes to any such waiver. First is the amount of political capital that the US has expended in trying to return President Bazoum to power – to reverse now would be the kind of nod to Realpolitik that the Biden administration is loath to do. Second is the fact that Niger, having evaluated its options going forward, may no longer be interested in maintaining the close relations it previously enjoyed with the US.

Niger, like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea before it, has thrown off the mantle of its post-colonial relationship with France, a relationship that was closely linked with US national security policy in West Africa and the Sahel.

 

Iran applauds UN removal of oil from rusting vessel off Yemen coast

The Iranian Foreign Ministry has lauded the United Nations for successfully transferring the oil from the FSO Safer supertanker to a new vessel and thereby preventing a humanitarian and environmental catastrophe.

In a statement, the ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said three years ago Iran had stated its willingness to voluntarily carry out the operation under the supervision of the United Nations at its own expense in order to avert an environmental disaster.

The Iranian official also restated Tehran’s position on resolving Yemen’s human tragedy peacefully.

The United Nations said on last Friday it had completed the removal of more than one million barrels of oil from the decaying supertanker off Yemen's Red Sea coast.

UN officials and activists had been warning for years that the entire Red Sea coastline was at risk, as the rusting tanker could have ruptured or exploded, spilling four times as much oil as the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster off Alaska.

"It is a major moment of having averted a potentially catastrophic disaster," said Achim Steiner, administrator of the UN Development Programme, which coordinated complex efforts to remove the oil from the ship.

Salvage crews operated for 18 days in a coastal conflict zone riddled with sea mines, amid high summer temperatures and strong currents, to offload the oil from the vessel.

After the conflict began in 2015, the FSO Safer was abandoned off the Red Sea port of Hudaydah.

“Iran conducted various negotiations to put an end to the Safer oil tanker woe to prevent a potential environmental, humanitarian, and economic catastrophe for Yemen and the region,” Kanaani stated.

He expressed hope that the recent coordinated effort to end a humanitarian and environmental disaster could act as a springboard for tackling other humanitarian challenges, such as a total lifting of the Yemen embargo.

On June 21, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Amir Abdollahian, held talks with senior Omani officials in Muscat, discussing a wide variety of issues, including bringing political stability to Yemen and establishing lasting peace in the country.

Amir Abdollahian and his Omani counterpart Sayyid Badr Albusaidi discussed a wide range of topics.

Additionally, the Iranian foreign minister spoke with Sultan bin Mohammed al Numani, the royal office minister of Oman. The two ministers talked about the current events in the region, notably in Yemen.

Both of them highlighted the necessity of teamwork to alleviate Yemeni people’s suffering and support political processes, stability, and long-term peace.

 

Saudi Arabia: Largest Islamic Finance Market

In his opening remarks, the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) Governor and Chairman of the Islamic Financial Services Board’s (IFSB) Council Ayman Al-Sayari welcomed IFSB council members at the IFSB 20th Anniversary Symposium.

Al-Sayari noted that the global Islamic finance sector has witnessed accelerated growth, with the value of its assets standing at over SR11.2 trillion, displaying an average growth of 9.6% over the last 3 years.

He added, “Saudi Arabia has a deep-rooted and historical relationship with Islamic finance. It houses the largest Islamic Finance market in the world, with total Islamic assets across sectors exceeding SR 3.1 trillion”.

“The Islamic banking sector alone accounts for 33% of the global Islamic bank assets,” Al-Sayari said.

The governor also noted that Saudi Arabia is the largest sovereign Sukuk issuer in the world and its cooperative insurance sector is the fastest growing worldwide, with a growth rate approaching 27% in 2022.

The IFSB’s annual meetings, hosted by SAMA from August 14 to 16, 2023, were held in Riyadh to discuss developments in the Islamic finance sector and boost the resiliency and stability of the Islamic Financial Services Industry (IFSI).

Al-Sayari expressed his appreciation for the dedicated work of contributors in achieving the IFSB objectives over the past two decades. He also assured SAMA’s commitment to support the IFSB’s efforts to develop a resilient and sound Islamic finance market.

This year’s annual meetings featured several sideline events and dialogue sessions with participation from experts and decision-makers from the industry.

The sessions explored the historical developments of the Islamic financial industry and its role in the economic development of the member countries, emphasizing more international cooperation in developing the industry.

During the meetings, the board members reviewed the IFSB’s 2023 Report and the outlooks amid the tightened global financial conditions.

They asserted the importance of evaluating the soundness, resiliency and interlink ages of the industry sectors, including Islamic banking, capital markets and Islamic insurance. 

Egypt and Jordan affirm full support for Palestinians

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah have affirmed their full support for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and urged Israel to fulfill its obligations in accordance with international law and to honor all agreements signed with the Palestinians.

Finding a suitable solution to the Palestinian cause and achieving a just and comprehensive peace is a strategic option and a regional and international requirement, the three leaders said in a joint communiqué after the tripartite summit in the Egyptian city of El Alamein.

The summit was held amid ongoing talk about a possible normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. In their communiqué, Sisi, Abdullah, and Abbas did not make any direct reference to reports about US efforts to broker a deal between Jerusalem and Riyadh. They stressed their “adherence” to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which stipulates that the Arab states would normalize their relations with Israel only after a full Israeli withdrawal to the pre-1967 lines and the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.

In the past, the Palestinian leadership accused the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Sudan of violating the terms of the Arab Peace Initiative by reaching separate normalization agreements with Israel.

Last weekend, Saudi Arabia said it had named its ambassador to Jordan, Nayef al-Sudairi, as Ambassador Extraordinary to the State of Palestine and Consul-General in Jerusalem.

Some Palestinians are convinced that the move is linked to US efforts to broker a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. They view the appointment of the envoy as part of a Saudi attempt to placate the Palestinians ahead of a normalization agreement with Israel.

At Monday’s summit, Sisi, Abdullah, and Abbas lashed out at Israel over its policies and measures against the Palestinians.

In their statement, the three leaders called on Israel to halt military incursions into Palestinian cities in the West Bank, saying it was undermining the ability of the PA government and security forces to carry out their duties.

They urged Israel to release Palestinian tax revenues it had seized because of payments made by the PA to security prisoners and the families of those killed while carrying out attacks against Israelis.

The three leaders condemned “the ongoing and escalating Israeli illegal practices” against the Palestinians and warned that Israel’s actions were “undermining the two-state solution and instigating violence and chaos.”

They called for halting Israeli settlement activities and emphasized the necessity of ending settler “terrorism.”

They also denounced Israel for violating the legal and historical status quo in Jerusalem and its holy sites and demanded an end to the “storming” of al-Aqsa Mosque, a reference to visits by Jews to the Temple Mount.

According to the communiqué, Sisi and Abbas emphasized the importance of the Hashemite custodianship of Jerusalem’s holy sites, including the Haram al-Sharif/Noble Sanctuary (Temple Mount).

Israel, the Palestinians, and several Arab countries recognize Jordan’s role in administering the holy sites.

In recent years, unconfirmed reports in Israeli and Arab media outlets said the Saudis were also seeking a role in administering the Islamic sites in Jerusalem, a move that would end Jordan’s exclusive and historical status in the city.

 

Pakistan Refinery expresses inability to process Russian crude

Pakistan Refinery (PRL) has reportedly raised concerns about its capacity to process more quantities of Russian crude oil, a setback for the Shehbaz Sharif government’s attempts to increase reliance on cheaper Russian crude to cut domestic fuel prices.

Analysts say the processing of Russian crude oil — available at a discount after it was banned from European markets due to Russia’s war on Ukraine — has been hampered by a shortage of foreign currency and limitations at Pakistan’s refineries and ports.

Another obstacle is that local refineries cannot extract as much petrol and diesel out of Urals crude — a type of crude oil from Russia — as they produce from Middle Eastern crudes.

Pakistan’s first crude cargo from Russia arrived in June and the payment was made in yuans. The target was to import 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Russia, nearly two-thirds of Pakistan’s total 154,000 bpd of crude imports in 2022.

The first shipment did not immediately lead to any significant savings for consumers. Instead, just over a week before the National Assembly’s dissolution, the outgoing coalition government raised petrol and diesel prices by up to Rs20 per litre.

According to sector experts, PRL failed in gaining any notable financial gains from processing the Russian crude, adding that the move to increase imports was allegedly a political stunt by the PDM government to appease consumers.

Musadik Malik, the minister of state for petroleum in the previous cabinet, told Dawn that PRL had not refused to further process Russian crude imports as long as he was in charge. The National Assembly was dissolved at midnight on Wednesday.

Some sources estimate the financial benefit to the PRL from this import was too paltry.

According to informed sources, PRL had taken the stance that other refineries should also bear the responsibility and challenges of processing Russian crude oil, which had not resulted in any significant financial benefit for the PRL.

Given the minimal benefits in terms of reducing local fuel prices, experts believe the interim government may shy away from importing more Russian crude until after the general elections.

Annually, local refineries process about 3 million tons of locally extracted crude oil. Besides, the country imports up to 8 million tons crude from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Zahid Mir, Chief Executive Officer PRL last month told Reuters that the refinery would need around two months to fully process its first batch of 100,000 tons equivalent to 730,000 barrels of Urals crude.

This oil needs to be mixed with Middle Eastern crude to balance the high fuel oil output from the Russian variant. “Our optimum processing solution is to blend Urals with Middle Eastern imported crude while not exceeding 50% Ural in the blend,” Mir told the news agency.

 

Upcoming Saudi Maritime Congress

The maritime and logistics sectors in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia are experiencing unprecedented growth, driven by economic diversification efforts, policy reforms, and foreign direct investment commitments.

As the Kingdom fast-tracks its way to becoming a world-leading maritime hub, all eyes are on Saudi Arabia's ambitious plans. The upcoming 4th edition of the Saudi Maritime Congress is poised to be a central event in these developments.

Taking place in Dammam from September 20-21, 2023, the Saudi Maritime Congress will illuminate the tremendous scope of opportunity within the fast-growing maritime logistics sector. Chris Morley, Group Director Seatrade Maritime, emphasizes the integral role of maritime transport infrastructure as part of the strategy to bolster the domestic ports and logistics sector, in line with the government's ambitious goal of making Saudi Arabia the leading regional logistics hub.

The Congress's comprehensive and free-to-attend conference program will provide an in-depth analysis of Vision2030 and its objectives for the maritime and logistics sectors.

Among the planned improvements are initiatives to boost port revenue, enhance rail connectivity, and quadruple the country's annual container throughput to 40 million TEU by 2030.

Mega projects like the US$500 billion Neom scheme and plans for the Oxagon port, the world's largest floating structure, signify the scale of Saudi Arabia's aspirations.

Building on the success of the 2022 event, which attracted 3,757 international visitors, this year's exhibition and conference at Dhahran Expo, Dammam, KSA, promises to be a vital gathering of maritime executives, leading suppliers of marine equipment and services, and key influencers in the KSA maritime landscape.

The two-day program features industry and keynote addresses by prominent figures such as Nancy W. Karigithu, Principal Secretary State Department for Shipping and Maritime, Kenya; Erik Jensby, Head of Business Development and Membership, BIMCO; John McDonald, EVP and COO, ABS. With over 30 speakers lined up, topics ranging from ship management to mega strategies for the maritime industry's future in the Kingdom will be explored.

The bustling exhibition will include companies like MAWANI; IMI; Transport Global Authority; Saudi Global Ports Co; Grandweld; Naghi Marine Company; DP World Middle East; ASRY, and more, showcasing the latest in maritime technology and services.

The Saudi Maritime Congress 2023 promises to be a vital forum for understanding and engaging with the Kingdom's ambitious maritime and logistics goals. By offering a platform for dialogue, innovation, and collaboration, it plays a pivotal role in shaping the future of the region's maritime landscape.

Registration is free for both the exhibition and conference program, highlighting the Congress's accessibility and dedication to fostering industry growth.

 

US losing power to control crude oil prices

Historically, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia had remained under the US pressure to move crude oil prices, the way the super power wanted. The recent history includes, Iran-Iraq war, imposition of sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, political turmoil in Nigeria and Libya and the latest being imposition of sanctions on Russia. Lately, there are growing evidences that the US power to maneuver crude oil prices is on the decline.

Oil prices tumbled about one percent on Monday as concerns about China's faltering economic recovery and a stronger dollar, after seven weeks of gains driven by tightening supply from OPEC Plus cuts.

Brent crude futures slipped 93 cents, or about 1.1% to US$86.46 a barrel by 1237 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell US$1.03, or roughly 1.2%, to US$82.81 a barrel.

"Crude has been in overbought territory for some time now, defying expectations of a correction. It has been singularly focused on US economic optimism, to the exclusion of the increasingly stronger headwinds blowing in the eurozone and China," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

"A rebalancing is overdue but it may need a reality check in the markets stateside," she said.

China's sluggish economic recovery and a stronger US dollar could depress prices, but OPEC Plus has indicated it would do whatever it takes to tighten supply and stabilize markets, CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said.

The US dollar index extended gains after a slightly bigger increase in US producer prices in July lifted Treasury yields despite expectations the Federal Reserve is at the end of hiking interest rates

A stronger dollar pressures oil demand by making the commodity more expensive for buyers holding other currencies.

Meanwhile, supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, part of the alliance between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, or OPEC Plus, are expected to erode oil inventories over the rest of this year, potentially driving prices even higher, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report on Friday.

Last week’s encouraging demand estimates, falling OPEC supply, declining inventories and mitigated inflationary pressure, said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, "is a warning signal that unless China joins the party the path upwards will be paved with pitfalls".

Separately on Monday, a Shell spokesperson said exports of Nigeria's Forcados crude oil resumed on Sunday, roughly a month after loadings of the medium sweet grade were suspended because of a potential leak at the export terminal.

The suspension of Forcados loadings contributed to Nigeria becoming the second-biggest contributor to the drop in OPEC crude oil output in July.