Germany became one of Ukraine’s leading weapons suppliers in
the 11 months since Russia’s invasion, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz also gained a
reputation for hesitating to take each new step — generating impatience among
allies.
Berlin’s
perceived foot-dragging, most recently on the Leopard 2 battle tanks that Kyiv
has long sought, is rooted at least partly in a post-World War II political
culture of military caution, along with present-day worries about a possible
escalation in the war.
On Friday, Germany inched closer to a decision to deliver
the tanks, ordering a review of its Leopard stocks in preparation for a
possible green light.
There was still no commitment, Defense Minister Boris
Pistorius rejected the suggestion that Germany was standing in the way and
said, “We have to balance all the pros and contras before we decide things like
that, just like that.”
It’s a pattern that has been repeated over the months as
Scholz first held off pledging new, heavier equipment, then eventually agreed
to do so.
Most recently, Germany said in early January that it
would send 40 Marder armored personnel carriers to Ukraine — doing so in a
joint announcement with the US, which pledged 50 Bradley armored vehicles.
That decision followed months of calls for Berlin to send
the Marder and stoked pressure for it to move up another step to the Leopard
tank.
“There
is a discrepancy between the actual size of the commitment and weapons
deliveries — it’s the second-largest European supplier — and the hesitancy with
which it is done,” said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, a Berlin-based senior analyst
with the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank.
Scholz,
an unshakably self-confident politician with a stubborn streak and little taste
for bowing to public calls for action, has stuck resolutely to his approach. He
has said that Germany won’t go it alone on weapons decisions and pointed to the
need to avoid NATO becoming a direct party to the war with Russia.
As pressure mounted last week, he declared that he
wouldn’t be rushed into important security decisions by excited comments. And
he insisted that a majority in Germany supports his government’s calm,
well-considered and careful decision-making.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland,
on Wednesday, Scholz listed some of the equipment Germany has sent to Ukraine,
declaring that it marks a profound turning point in German foreign and security
policy.
That
is, at least to some extent, true. Germany refused to provide lethal weapons
before the invasion started, reflecting a political culture rooted in part in
the memory of Germany’s own history of aggression during the 20th century —
including the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union.
“No German chancellor, of no party, wants to be seen out
front in pushing a military agenda — you want to try all other options before
you resort to that,” Kleine-Brockhoff said. “And therefore for domestic
consumption, it is seen as a positive thing for a German chancellor not to lead
on this, to be cautious, to be resistant, and to have tried all other options.”
Scholz does face calls from Germany’s center-right
opposition and some in his three-party governing coalition to be more proactive
on military aid; less so from his own center-left Social Democratic Party,
which for decades was steeped in the legacy of Cold War rapprochement pursued
by predecessor Willy Brandt in the early 1970s.
“Scholz decided early on that he does not want to lead
militarily on Ukraine assistance,” Kleine-Brockhoff said, though “he wants to
be a good ally and part of the alliance and in the middle of the pack.”
But the
cautious approach drives allies crazy and raises questions over whether they
can count on the Germans, Kleine-Brockhoff acknowledged.
Berlin kept up its caution on the Leopard tank even
after Britain announced last week that it would provide Ukraine its own
Challenger 2 tanks.
The
hesitancy isn’t just an issue between Berlin and Kyiv, since other countries
would need Germany’s permission to send their own stocks of German-made
Leopards to Ukraine. On Wednesday, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz
Morawiecki said Warsaw would consider giving its tanks even without Berlin’s
permission.
“Consent is of secondary importance here. We will either
obtain it quickly, or we will do the right thing ourselves,” Morawiecki said.
British historian Timothy Garton Ash wrote in The Guardian
and other newspapers this week that to its credit, the German government’s
position on military support for Ukraine has moved a very long way since the
eve of the Russian invasion.
But he argued that the tank issue has become a litmus test
of Germany’s courage to resist (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s nuclear
blackmail, overcome its own domestic cocktail of fears and doubts, and defend a
free and sovereign Ukraine, and that Scholz should lead a European Leopard
plan.
Whether that will eventually happen remains to be seen.
Scholz’s government has insisted on close coordination with the United States,
a possible reflection in part of the fact that Germany — unlike Britain and
France — relies on the US nuclear deterrent.
On Friday, Scholz’s spokesman, Steffen Hebestreit, denied
reports that Germany had insisted it would only deliver Leopard tanks if the US
sends its own Abrams tanks. He rejected the notion that Berlin is trailing
others and insisted it is taking the right approach.
“These are not easy decisions, and they need to be
well-weighed,” he said. “And this is about them being sustainable, that all can
go along with them and stand behind them — and part of a leadership performance
is keeping an alliance together.”
