Peace in Palestine must for regional stability, says King of Bahrain

Bahrain supports a just peace for the Palestinians as an important step in maintaining regional stability, the country’s monarch, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, told Israel's President Isaac Herzog when the two met at Al-Qudaibiya Palace in Manama on Sunday.

There is firm support in Bahrain for “achieving a just, comprehensive and sustainable peace that guarantees the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people and that will lead to stability, development and prosperity for both the Palestinian and Israeli people as well as for the people of the region," Khalifa said.

Herzog said his visit to Bahrain symbolized a message of peace for the region and was a historic step that expanded Israeli ties with the Arab world.

He spoke at first on the tarmac at Ben-Gurion Airport on Sunday morning, then repeated the message as he sat with Bahrain's Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani. 

This trip marks the first time that an Israeli president has visited Bahrain.

Herzog recalled that Zayani signed the Abraham Accords, who in turn said it had been a "bright day."

"This is another historic step in the relationship between Israel and Arab states, signed with the Abraham Accords, and another step toward more and more nations joining the circle of peace with the State of Israel," Herzog said earlier that day. "I will be the guest of the King of Bahrain and his government, and I hope to discuss issues of mutual interest."

Herzog will then be flying to the UAE to attend a space conference. "Israel and the UAE are both regional powers in this field, and if one looks ahead, one sees an incredible vista of cooperation between so many industries of Israel, the UAE, Bahrain, and other nations that have signed the Abraham Accords, with the hope of including more and more nations in future," he said.

 

US shale producers just can’t beat OPEC Plus

Shale oil drillers turned from scrappy wildcatters into multi-millionaires over the past two decades, propelling the United States to become the world's largest producer, but now they are running out of runway. Oil output gains are slowing and executives from some of the largest firms are warning of future declines from overworked oilfields and less productive wells.

On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meets to decide whether to hold the line or cut its output, no longer afraid that their policy decisions might provoke a surge in shale production in the way they did in the years before the pandemic.

The sidelining of US shale means consumers around the world may face a winter of higher fuel prices. Russia has threatened to block oil sales to countries supporting a European Union price cap, and the United States is winding down releases from emergency oil stockpiles that helped cool energy inflation.

US shale production costs are soaring and there is no sign that tight-fisted investors will change their demands for returns rather than investment in expanding drilling.

During a decade of stunning growth, shale consistently defied production forecasts, and opposition from environmentalists, as technology broke open more and more shale plays and revolutionized the global energy industry.

But there appears to be no new industry-transforming technologies in the works or cost-savings that could change the picture this time around. Inflation has pushed up costs by up to 20%, and less productive wells are crimping the industry's ability to produce more.

Industry spending on new oil projects, said analysts last week at Morgan Stanley is modest at best and the absolute level of investment is still historically low.

Shale has proven naysayers wrong in the past. After the 2014-2016 OPEC price war put hundreds of oil companies into bankruptcy, shale innovated with less expensive ways of operating. Their subsequent gains gave the United States by 2018 the title of world's largest crude producer, a distinction it still holds.

Shale can't come back to become a swing producer, because of the investors' unwillingness to finance growth. The demand for payouts and repeated price busts has forced oil producers and service companies to cut back on science projects that fed past production breakthroughs.

The industry also has less time to regain its former leadership, said Hess Corp CEO John Hess. He estimates rivals have about a decade of running room before they fizzle out. Shale is no longer in the driver's seat with OPEC regaining control over the market, said Hess.

Shale's waning influence is clear in North Dakota. Once the vanguard of the US shale oil industry, poor well productivity in the state's Bakken region and labor shortages have left it far from its boom days.

As the number of prime drilling locations decline across all shale fields, the outlook is grim. Shale production declines rapidly after peaking compared to conventional oil wells, falling about 50% after the first year.

The Permian Basin of west Texas and New Mexico, the largest and most important US oilfield, is the only US shale region to exceed its pre-COVID-19 pandemic oil production levels, according to US Energy Information Administration data. Even that field is showing signs of stress.

Chinese Zero Covid Policy Hinders Global Supply Chain, says Powell

China’s stringent zero-Covid restrictions have affected the American economy by dragging on global supply chains, the top central banker of the United States said, reports South China Morning Post.

When China has shutdowns in regions that are deeply connected to the world economy, supply chains are less efficient, less effective and the prices of goods manufactured or assembled in the country are affected, said US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell.

“It does have an implication for the US,” he said at an event where he gave a closely watched speech before policymakers enter a quiet period before the December 13-14 gathering on the next interest rate decision.

Powell added, “It’s hard to say how big that will be without knowing how persistent, how long the lockdowns will last”.

He spoke as signs increased that Beijing’s zero-Covid policy was taking a toll on the world’s No 2 economy, leading to weaker consumer demand, disrupted production and sluggish expectations.

The latest official surveys showed that both China’s factory and services activities contracted to seven-month lows and worse than market estimations in November.

Experts warned that the inevitable costs of Chinese cities being forced to impose restrictions amid a surge in coronavirus cases have already started to appear.

The International Monetary Fund last week urged Beijing to recalibrate its Covid-19 policy to the economy while relying on market reforms to raise productivity and deliver medium and long-term growth.

Analysts now expect the Chinese economy to grow only 3.3%YoY in 2022, far below the official target of around 5.5% set by the central authorities in March.

The investment bank Nomura said that weaker demand from China would exacerbate the export downturn and add to disinflationary pressures for the rest of Asia.

On November 23, Nomura cut its forecast for China’s fourth quarter growth rate to 2.4% from its previous estimate of 2.8%. It also trimmed the forecast for China’s annual economic growth rate in 2023 to 4.0% from 4.3%.

After protests in several major Chinese cities over the weekend, the country’s central and local authorities appeared to have taken steps to improve their coronavirus strategy.

The cities of Guangzhou and Chongqing announced an easing of Covid restrictions on Wednesday; a move also seen in Shijiazhuang, which at one point was expected to be a pilot city for reopening.

When meeting with health officials and experts on Wednesday, Chinese Vice-Premier Sun Chunlan, the most senior official in-charge of Covid response, uncommonly highlighted that the pathogenicity of the Omicron variant weakens and said the country was facing a new situation and new tasks in pandemic controls.

 

Football World Cup a slap in the face of Israel

With the world cup in Qatar well underway, Israel occupying Palestine got an opportunity to try and further extend its occupying hand toward the Arab and Islamic world. But events at the world's most popular sporting event have painted a completely different picture, reports Tehran Times.

The few Arab countries officially normalizing relations with Israel over the past several years stands in contrast with a growing lack of public support for the Abraham Accords in the Persian Gulf. The reality is even some monarchies in some Kingdoms have embarrassed themselves by normalizing ties with Israel, despite strong opposition from their citizens. There would have been no normalization if the people of these monarchies have the right to voice their opinion on such controversial matters.

 Such is the disgust toward Israeli policies at the prestigious occasion that even reporters dispatched by the apartheid regime have been investigating and reporting on the 'Cup of Hatred' (as one Hebrew newspaper headline put it) towards Israelis on the streets of Doha. 

Instead, soccer fans in particular Arabs, at the first World Cup in West Asia are steering well clear of Israeli journalists in Qatar who have been trying to interview them in an attempt to send home attractive headlines to the war criminals in Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories.

Before the event even kicked off, Israeli officials had expressed hope that the US-brokered Abraham Accords reached with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020, and later Sudan and Morocco, would inspire further normalization, with a lot of that hope pinned on one of the region's influential player Saudi Arabia.

Attempts to try and even interview some Arab fans have fallen flat with Israeli reporters from the regime's biggest news broadcasters saying they are being snubbed reflecting the strong boycott and opposition by the people of the rulers of Arab and Islamic countries that normalized ties over the past two years.

One Israeli reporter said Palestinian fans held a protest next to him, waving their flags and chanting "go home", in reference to the European and American countries from which Israeli settlers migrated to Palestine over the past decades, prompting the brutal Israeli ethnic cleansing campaigns against the native Palestinians.

The widespread support for the oppressed Palestinian people has been displayed with Palestinian flags being waved inside and outside stadiums despite the fact that Palestine did not qualify for the tournament. Fans from many Arab and Islamic countries have carried Palestinian flags prominently at matches and worn them as capes around their necks. 

Saudi national Khaled al-Omri, who works in the oil industry and was in Qatar to support his home team, told Reuters, “Some "countries in the Arab world are heading towards normalization – but that's because most of them don't have rulers who listen to their people," 

Aseel Sharayah, a 27-year-old Jordanian at the tournament, said he would have also refused to talk to Israeli journalists, though Amman signed a peace deal with the regime in 1994.

"If I did see any of them, there'd be absolutely no time of interaction," said Sharayah, who works for the European-Jordanian Committee in Amman. "Israeli policies are closing the door on any opportunity for more ties between the countries."

An Israeli journalist also claims that security guards were sent to remove him and his filming crew from a Qatari beach. The report says security guards were sent to remove him and his filming crew from a Qatari beach after he asked a local restaurant to film on its premises. "The owner asked to know where we're from...he called for security guards to escort us away after finding out we were Israeli," the journalist said.

The restaurant beach owner also took the journalist's phone, demanding he deletes every photo taken in his restaurant; the reporter claimed "I felt threatened."

One video circulating online shows an Egyptian football fan smiling serenely as an Israeli broadcaster introduces him live on air. Then he leans into the microphone with a message: “Viva Palestine.”

Another clip that has gone viral from the streets of Doha this week shows a group of Lebanese men walking away from a live interview with a reporter after they learned he is Israeli. One shouts over his shoulder: “There is no Israel. It’s Palestine.”

During the opening ceremony before the first match, a phalanx of Qatari men came to the Al Bayt Stadium chanting, “Everyone is welcome,” carrying with them a large Palestinian flag. “We are taking care of people in Palestine, and all Muslim people and Arab countries are holding up Palestinian flags because we’re for them,” the flag bearer told the media.

One Israeli man, who gave only his first name, told the Guardian newspaper “the majority of the masses here do not accept the presence of Israelis.”

"The Iranian team will be in the World Cup and we estimate that tens of thousands of fans will follow it, and there will be other fans from [Persian] Gulf countries that we don’t have diplomatic relations with,” said Lior Haiat, a senior Israeli official.

“Downplay your Israeli presence and Israeli identity for the sake of your personal security,” Haiat added, addressing the Israeli fans.

With the extent of so many other incidents involving Israeli settlers going viral at the tournament, it appears that things are not going as "smoothly" as the Israeli regime had anticipated. 

It also shows the immense show of solidarity with Palestinians and the resentment toward Israeli war crimes and massacres against children. Qataris themselves have a history of support for the Palestinian cause.

More importantly, what has been highlighted in Doha is that despite a few Arab rulers and monarchies normalizing ties with Israel, the people of those countries are against any form of normalization with the regime.

Palestinian flags have been waved in matches involving even Western teams who play Israel, perhaps most notably in the stands at Celtic Park in Scotland. This is despite rules introduced by the UK authorities to ban Palestinian flags inside the stadium in the Scottish city of Glasgow.

At times, entire sections of fans at Glasgow Celtic's stadium displayed Palestinian flags to protest Israeli occupation. During games against Israeli teams, Scottish fans turned whole sections of the stadium into a sea of Palestinian flags, ignoring the official ban.

Demonstrations for Palestine in Scottish football matches have been organized by several groups including one that usually posts on social media platforms the words “Fly the flag for Palestine, for Celtic, for Justice.”

Research conducted by the Qatar-run Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies shows how large majorities across the Arab world have disapproved of and are strongly opposed to any form of the normalization process. 

It found that an overwhelming majority of Arabs disapprove of recognition of Israel by their home countries, with only 6% accepting formal diplomatic recognition.

The study also finds powerful support for the Palestinian cause among ordinary Arabs, who identify the conflict as an Arab issue. “Over three-quarters of the Arab public agree that the Palestinian cause concerns all Arabs, and not the Palestinians alone,” the report says. 

“When asked to elaborate on the reasons for their positions, respondents who were opposed to diplomatic ties between their countries and Israel focused on several factors, such as Israeli racism towards the Palestinians and its colonialist, expansionist policies,” 

The study confirms how much the colonialist past and the Western hegemony over the Arab world following World War I have driven the political sentiments of the Arab and Islamic worlds toward the aggression and expansionist policies Israel is committing today.

Many other polls over the past two years show a similar pattern after the signing of the controversial "Abraham Accords" between Israel and some Arab states.

A poll by The Washington Institute shows the already shaky support for normalization among Arab public opinion has dropped further.

Pakistan facing the toughest time of its history

According to a report by Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, Topline Securities, falling foreign exchange reserves and rising external funding gap is worrisome. Though, current account deficit is coming down, the biggest worry is external debt servicing.

Pakistan economy is passing through one of the toughest times in its 75-year history. Large external financing gap, challenging global financial markets, devastating floods and local political instability has increased the risk of timely external debt payments.

According to IMF data, Pakistan’s external debt repayment obligations are estimated US$73 billion over the next three years (FY23-25) as against prevailing foreign exchange reserves hovering US$8 billion at present.

The huge repayment are due to large external borrowings that have doubled in 7-years from US$65 billion in FY15 (24% of GDP) to US$130 billion (40% of GDP) in FY22.

Resultantly, Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities (domestic & external) have increased from Rs19.9 trillion (72% of GDP in FY15) to Rs60 trillion as of June, 2022 (90% of GDP).

Considering this external debt repayment crisis, the brokerage house think Pakistan will do a Debt Rescheduling (Base Case) with its bi-lateral lenders especially China as it forms 30% of government external debt and the repayment to China will be huge in next few years.

Pakistan must capitalize on its friendly relationship with China and must seek IMF led Debt Restructuring of at least US$30 billion for next 3 to 5years. Finance Minister has already hinted at rescheduling of bi-lateral loans without any haircuts.

The Sooner the government starts this process the better it will be. In case, current coalition Government delays it for political reasons than new Govt. coming to power after 2023 Elections will have to do this. The new government will have to enter into a new and a bigger IMF program to execute this much needed rescheduling.

Commercial lenders, Eurobonds investors, local lenders and others may or may not be affected from this rescheduling depending upon the negotiations.

Pakistan credit rating that was recently downgraded (Moody’s downgraded to Caa1 from B3) may also be adversely affected. 

The brokerage house claims to have seen precedence from other countries like Argentina, Angola, and Zambia etc. that also undertook restructuring of loans. Even in past, Pakistan restructured its Eurobond and rescheduled certain portion of Paris Club payments post nuclear tests in 1998.

Under the new IMF program along with debt restructuring, Pakistan will have to follow stringent monetary, exchange rate and fiscal policies. The economic growth is anticipated to remain slow. On top of all, while PKR will remain under pressure, interest rate may spike to higher levels despite receding inflation.

According to the brokerage house, under the Best-Case scenario if commodity prices fall 25% and financial markets improves that will provide the much-needed relief and the country may not require debt restructuring.

If the debt is not restructured on time, Pakistan’s debt crisis could worsen further which could hamper Pakistan’s ability to pay on time.

 

G-7 agrees US$60/barrel price for Russian oil

The Group of Seven (G7) nations and Australia on Friday said they had agreed a $60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil after European Union members overcame resistance from Poland and hammered out a political agreement earlier in the day. The price cap would take effect on December 05, 2022 or very soon thereafter. Details of the deal are due to be published in the EU legal journal on Sunday.

The Group of Seven (G7) is an intergovernmental political forum consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom and United States; additionally, the European Union is a "non-enumerated member". It is officially organized around shared values of pluralism and representative government, with members making up world's largest IMF advanced economies and liberal democracies. As of 2020, G7 members account for over half of global net wealth (at over US$200 trillion), 32 to 46 percent of global gross domestic product, and 10 percent of the world's population (770 million people). Members are great powers in global affairs and maintain mutually close political, economic, diplomatic, and military relations

The nations said they anticipated that any revision of the price would include a form of grandfathering to allow compliant transactions concluded before the change.

"The Price Cap Coalition may also consider further action to ensure the effectiveness of the price cap," the statement read. No details were immediately available on what further actions could be taken.

The price cap, a G7 idea, aims to reduce Russia's income from selling oil, while preventing a spike in global oil prices after an EU embargo on Russian crude takes effect on December 05, 2022.

Warsaw had resisted the proposed level as it examined an adjustment mechanism to keep the cap below the market price. It had pushed in EU negotiations for the cap to be as low as possible to squeeze revenues to Russia and limit Moscow's ability to finance its war in Ukraine.

Polish Ambassador to the EU Andrzej Sados on Friday told reporters Poland had backed the EU deal, which included a mechanism to keep the oil price cap at least 5% below the market rate. US officials said the deal was unprecedented and demonstrated the resolve of the coalition opposing Russia's war.

A spokesperson for the Czech Republic, which holds the rotating EU presidency and oversees EU countries' negotiations, said it had launched the written procedure for all 27 EU countries to formally green light the deal, following Poland's approval.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the price cap would significantly reduce Russia's revenues.

"It will help us stabilize global energy prices, benefiting emerging economies around the world," von der Leyen said on Twitter, adding that the cap would be "adjustable over time" to react to market developments.

The G7 price cap will allow non-EU countries to continue importing seaborne Russian crude oil, but it will prohibit shipping, insurance and re-insurance companies from handling cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold for less than the price cap.

Because the most important shipping and insurance firms are based in G7 countries, the price cap would make it very difficult for Moscow to sell its oil for a higher price.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the cap will particularly benefit low- and medium-income countries that have borne the brunt of high energy and food prices.

"With Russia’s economy already contracting and its budget increasingly stretched thin, the price cap will immediately cut into Putin’s most important source of revenue," Yellen said in a statement.

A senior US Treasury Department official told reporters on Friday that the US$60 per barrel price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil will keep global markets well supplied while institutionalizing discounts created by the threat of such a limit.

The chair of the Russian lower house's foreign affairs committee told Tass news agency on Friday the European Union was jeopardizing its own energy security.

The initial G7 proposal last week was for a price cap of $65-$70 per barrel with no adjustment mechanism. Since Russian Urals crude already traded lower, Poland, Lithuania and Estonia pushed for a lower price.

Russian Urals crude traded at around $67 a barrel on Friday.

EU countries have wrangled for days over the details, with those countries adding conditions to the deal - including that the price cap will be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, according to diplomats and an EU document.

The document also said a 45-day transitional period would apply to vessels carrying Russian crude that was loaded before December 05 and unloaded at its final destination by January 19, 2023.

United States Navy faces mental health crisis

The United States Navy and local authorities are investigating the suspected suicide deaths of four sailors all assigned to the same ship maintenance center in Norfolk, Virginia, in the span of less than a month. 

All four were assigned to Mid-Atlantic Regional Maintenance Center (MARMC) at Naval Station Norfolk, the Navy confirmed to The Hill on Friday. 

The most recently deceased of the four, Janelle Holder, was found dead on November 26, 2022 according to Lt. Cmdr. Rochelle Rieger, a public affairs officer with MARMC. 

The three other sailors, Kody Lee Decker of Virginia; Cameron Armstrong and Deonte Autry of Monroe, were found dead on October 29, November 05 and November 14, respectively.

“The circumstances surrounding these separate incidents are currently under investigation by local police departments and the US Navy,” Rieger said.  

“We mourn the loss of our shipmates and friends. Our thoughts and our deepest condolences are with these Sailors’ families, loved ones, and coworkers during this extremely difficult time,” she added. 

NBC News first reported on the deaths. 

Kayla Arestivo, a licensed counselor brought to the center in mid-November to help sailors in the unit, told NBC that she was inundated with the amount of hopelessness at that command.

She added that toxic leadership was an issue highlighted by the sailors she saw, including feeling overworked and undervalued by leaders.

A Navy spokesperson confirmed to The Hill that Arestivo, who is not typically on staff, was brought in along with other experts as part of a suicide prevention stand-down at MARMC between November 14 and 16. 

The stand-down included presentations from different mental health organizations — including the command’s own suicide prevention coordinator — which all of the center’s assigned 3,000 sailors and civilian staff were required to receive, the spokesperson said.  

They added that there were also counseling services made available, including one-on-one sessions and other resources. 

About 1,500 uniformed sailors and 1,500 civilian staff are assigned to MARMC, of these 1,500 sailors, about 500 are on limited duty for a variety of reasons, including mental or physical disabilities, are pregnant or postpartum mothers unable to be stationed aboard a ship or are dealing with personal circumstances such as a sick spouse. 

All four sailors suspected of dying by suicide were on limited duty, the spokesperson confirmed.

This is the Navy’s second major string of suicides within a year. 

In April, three sailors assigned to the USS George Washington — about 30 miles away from Norfolk in Newport News, Virginia — died by suicide within less than a week of each other.

 “One suicide is too many and MARMC leadership is taking a proactive approach to support the team, improve mental fitness, and manage the stress of its sailors,” Rieger said.

“We remain fully engaged with our sailors and their families to ensure their health and well-being, and to ensure a climate of trust that encourages sailors to ask for help.”

She added that leadership, chaplains, psychologists, and counselors are currently providing support and counseling to MARMC’s workforce and for anyone in need of help.