As speculation builds around what Speaker Nancy Pelosi
will do next year, many Democrats say the party’s surprisingly strong
performance in this week’s midterms yields a simple answer, whatever she wants.
Pelosi, who has served as the Democratic leader for the past
two decades, has previously pledged to withdraw from the top of the party at
the end of this term, clearing space for a younger crop of ambitious lawmakers
to climb into the leadership ranks. And a number of Democrats intend to hold
her to the promise.
Yet the unexpectedly strong turn for House Democrats in
Tuesday’s elections has strengthened Pelosi’s hand as questions churn around
her political fate, according to sources on and off of Capitol Hill. The
party’s good night, many Democrats said afterwards, means Pelosi can remain the
top leader — if she so chooses.
“She’s in the power position. We over performed, and the
wave never materialized,” said Ashley Etienne, Pelosi’s former communications
director. “So, the choice is hers to make.”
While Republicans remain the favorites to control the lower
chamber next year, Democrats stunned the political world Tuesday by clinging to
dozens of seats in tough battleground districts and deflecting the type of
midterm wave that routinely hammers the party of the incumbent president.
The development has buoyed Democrats, who have been on the
ropes for most of the cycle amid a volatile economy, and frustrated Republicans
who were hoping a considerable majority would help them neutralize President
Biden through the second half of his first term.
No
single figure was more crucial to the Democrats’ defense than Pelosi, who had
blanketed the country over the course of the cycle showering enormous amounts
of campaign cash — from a massive haul of roughly US$276 million raised — onto
vulnerable lawmakers.
As GOP leaders spent Wednesday sniping over what went wrong
with their campaign strategy, Democrats were coming around to a more unified
sentiment, Pelosi is now in a place to decide her own future, on her own terms.
“She will be asked to come back, and she will stay if she
wants,” said a second former leadership aide, who spoke anonymously to discuss
a sensitive topic.
A
Democratic lawmaker delivered a similar assessment, noting that Pelosi’s
ability to raise money for the party — more than US$1.2 billion since she entered
leadership — is unprecedented in Congress, and gives her outsized leverage to
decide her own political fate.
“She earned her ticket to stay 10 years ago when she was
raising more money than any Speaker had ever raised before,” the lawmaker said
on background. “In respect for all that she has been to the Democratic Caucus
and how she has led … she needs to be able to make the decision when she wants
to leave.”
Pelosi is famously guarded about her future, and this year
has been no exception.
The Speaker has repeatedly deflected questions about whether
she’ll seek to remain in power next year. And that reticence has continued even
in the wake of the violent assault on her husband, Paul Pelosi, late last
month.
The Speaker has said only that her decision will be affected
by the attack. But that’s only fueled more conjecture, will she bow out of
Congress to join her recovering husband? Or stay in place to send the message
that no act of political violence can push her out?
“I’m sure that her decision is going to weigh the impacts on
her family,” said the lawmaker, “but that would not be a reason for her to bail
out.”
Heading into Tuesday’s elections, Democrats were not
optimistic about their chances.
They
have razor-thin margins in both chambers. Historical trends have predicted that
the party of the president routinely loses seats in the midterms, frequently in
wave numbers. Biden’s approval numbers have been below 50 percent for more than
a year.
Economic anxieties, particularly surrounding inflation and
gas prices, were expected to overshadow other issues on voters’ minds to the
detriment of the Democrats, who control all levers of power in Washington.
However, Democrats defied most of the predictions for
Tuesday, securing victories in battleground districts across the country and
denying Republicans a huge majority if the House does change hands after all
the outstanding races are decided.
On Wednesday — a day when Republicans hoped to be popping
champagne, launching leadership races and sharpening plans to confront Biden on
countless key issues next year — they were forced instead to ponder the reasons
for their lackluster performance.
If Republicans had prevailed clearly and quickly Tuesday
night, there would have been immediate pressure on the Speaker to announce her
intentions for next year. Instead, she announced she was leaving the country
for a climate summit in Egypt.
Pelosi
is not guaranteed a leadership spot in the next Congress. The younger, restless
lawmakers who want the chance to join the party brass, will likely revolt if
she seeks another term at the top.
“But the race for leader in the minority is
very different from the contest for Speaker, requiring support from a majority
of the party, not a majority of the full House — a much lower bar.
Whatever Pelosi decides, her supporters and detractors are
in agreement on one thing: No one will know until
This really solidifies her legacy as the most accomplished
Speaker in US history, by all measures — all measures. There’s no question,”
Etienne said. “Two things I know about Pelosi though, the decision will be made
on her terms, and she’s going to keep us guessing.”
