Tracking turmoil in global trade

Optimism among US small businesses retreated in October 2022 for the first time in four months as the sales outlook worsened, but there were glimmers of hope that supply-chain disruptions showing more signs of subsiding.

That’s according to the latest economic trends report by the National Federation of Independent Business, released Tuesday. While 31% of owners reported that supply-chain disruptions have had a significant impact on their business and another 31% said the effect was moderate, that’s lower than in July and the three months before.

And for the first time since 2019, a net figure of zero owners viewed current inventory stocks as too low in October, after reporting depleted stockpiles for months on end owing to the pandemic-era snarls.

The survey’s metrics on inflation — a top issue in this year’s midterm elections — were mixed. (Read more about the US midterm election results and for Bloomberg’s US Election Risk Index.

The net share of owners rising prices ticked down for a fifth month to 50%, the lowest since September 2021 but still well-elevated. However, the share of firms planning to increase prices in the next three months rose for the first time since May, and about a third plan to raise compensation, the most this year.

A similar share see inflation as the single most important issue impacting small businesses, up from 30% in September 2022.

Labor remains the next biggest problem. Owners continued to report difficulty attracting qualified applicants and filling open positions. However, hiring plans retreated for the first time since June, though the figure remains elevated.

After setting records earlier in the year, retail shipments arriving at US container ports are set to keep slowing for the rest of 2022, the Global Port Tracker by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Association showed.

That’s because retailers stocked up far in advance of the holiday shopping season to avoid a repeat of pandemic-era port congestion and potential disruption from West Coast dockworker and US rail-employee talks, they said in a report.

They trimmed the forecast for container arrivals for November 2022 to 1.92 million 20-feet equivalent units, the first time imports may come in below 2 million since February 2021. For the year as a whole, 2022 arrivals may total 25.9 million units, which would just exceed last year’s record of 25.8 million.

Volumes for February 2023 are forecast at 1.71 million TEUs, 19% lower than the same month in 2022, when US ports were still congested.