Israel takes aim at ruining Iran Turkey ties

In the recent past, Israel has launched an all-out media campaign against Iran that included bizarre claims of Iranian threats against ordinary tourists in neighboring Turkey. 

Israeli media and officials first issued warnings of imminent alleged threats from Iran to Israeli tourists in Turkey and then claimed that several attacks were foiled as a result of Turkish-Israeli security cooperation.

“The operational efforts with the Turkish security forces have borne fruit,” Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett claimed.  “In recent days, in a joint Israeli-Turkish effort, we thwarted a number of attacks and a number of terrorists were arrested on Turkish soil.”

Neither Bennett nor other Israeli officials have offered any kind of evidence to support their claims.

The string of warnings began last week when several Israeli officials alleged that there were concrete threats that Iran was allegedly trying to target Israelis in Istanbul over the weekend, and urged all Israeli citizens to leave Turkey immediately.

Iran has officially responded to Israeli hyperboles. Iran believes that Israel is openly spreading lies unworthy of a response.

Nour News, a news outlet close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said Iran is determined to avenge the assassination of Colonel Sayad Khodaei but it’ll not target innocent people. 

“Given the past experiences, Israel is well aware of the certainty of Iran’s response to this regime’s mischief and terrorist moves such as the martyrdom of Sayad Khodaei,” Nour News said, adding, “The officials of this regime also know that the Islamic Republic of Iran will not punish innocent individuals when taking vengeance on the Zionist government’s crimes.”

The outlet said the leaders of Israel know that only the perpetrators and those who issued orders will be punished. This is why Israeli officials seek to mobilize the public with unfounded claims to increase the cost of Iran’s revenge, according to Nour News. 

The Israeli claims are intended to achieve another goal. According to Nour News, Israeli officials want to pitch Turkey and Iran against each other through unfounded claims. This is while the Iranian and Turkish foreign ministers have recently spoken over the phone and discussed ways to boost bilateral ties. 

This month, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and his Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu spoke over the phone twice in less than a week. In the first call, they discussed the latest developments in bilateral relations, according to the Iranian foreign ministry.

Amir Abdollahian stressed the need to keep up the consultations between the two countries and promote cooperation, especially in bilateral trade and consular issues. The top Turkish diplomat invited his Iranian counterpart to visit Ankara for talks on issues of mutual interest in the near future.

In the second call, Cavusoglu once again extended an invitation to Amir Abdollahian to visit Turkey and expressed hope that continued negotiations between the officials of the two countries will help boost bilateral ties and increase their cooperation.

Amir Abdollahian reaffirmed Tehran’s determination to boost ties with Turkey more than ever before. The top Iranian diplomat also expressed hope that the two sides will hold more consultations over the matter.

The Israeli claims come against a backdrop of broader tensions between Iran and Israel. Israeli officials have ramped up their threats against Iran and, recently, even boasted about taking the battle into Iran. Bennett and other Israeli officials are now talking of ‘Octopus Doctrine’ a new strategy allegedly aimed at dealing with Iran directly instead of countering its allies in the West Asia region.

“The past year has been a year of changing course in Israel’s strategy vis-à-vis Iran,” Bennett said on June 7 at a meeting of the parliamentary defense and foreign affairs committee, according to the New York Times. “We have shifted into a higher gear. We are acting at all times and places, and we will continue to do so.”

Iran has said it will respond to Israeli provocative measures. Amir Abdollahian has recently said Israel must stop its provocative and hostile behavior.

In late May, IRGC chief Major General Hossein Salami vowed revenge for Sayyad Khodaei. He blamed the assassination of Khodaei on Israel, underlining that Iran will avenge his killing.

 

Iraq clears US$1.6 billion Iranian debts

Both, Iran and Iraq have announced that Baghdad has cleared its debts to Iran after months of talks over how to move forward with the financial issue. The move came after intensive diplomacy between Iran and Iraq.

A few weeks ago, Iranian Ambassador to Iraq Mohammad Kazem Al Sadeq met with the Governor of Iraq’s Central Bank Mustafa Ghaleb Mokhif in Baghdad to discuss ways to clear Baghdad’s gas and electricity debts to Iran.

During the meeting, they discussed aspects of banking and economic cooperation between the two countries, the payment of financial dues from Iraq, and overcoming the obstacles facing the work of Iranian companies in Iraq.

The repayments of Iraq’s debts faced two major problems: first, the Iraqi Parliament’s delay in approving the country’s fiscal budget and Second, US unilateral sanctions on Iran. 

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi had sought to find a solution to both issues. He said, “One of the problems that caused the delay in the payment of dues to Iran is the absence of the budget.” 

It seems that this issue has been resolved in recent weeks. Al-Kadhimi said Iraq’s debts date back to before 2020. Al-Kadhimi had cleared the responsibility of his government, which was formed in May 2020, from Iran's gas debt, amounting to about US$1.6 billion. He said, “There are no debts owed by the current government regarding Iranian gas.”

Iraq’s Electricity Ministry echoed a similar point in its statement announcing the repayment of debts. “The ministry announces the start of the payment procedures that will be completed within the next two days, bearing in mind that the issue of financial obligations towards neighboring Iran is one of the problems carried over by previous governments, and the current government has borne it, by heading towards internal borrowing to pay off debts, which were not paid due to the scarcity of financial allocations resulting from not approving the budget for that year,” it said. 

After much bickering, Iraq paid its debts to Iran and Tehran confirmed that it received its money from Iraq. 

Iranian Oil Minister Javad Oji announced that Iran had received US$1.6 billion in arrears for gas exports to Iraq. 

“In light of the active energy diplomacy, and after several months of negotiations, we received, hours ago, US$1.6 billion in arrears due from past years regarding gas exports to Iraq,” Oji wrote on Twitter. 

“Since the beginning of current Iranian year, as compared to the same period last year, the country's gas exports have increased by 25%, and the receipt of hard currency earnings from it has increased by 90%,” he added. 

Iraq relies on Iranian gas to operate electric power plants. Earlier, the Iraqi Minister of Electricity Adel Karim announced that Iraq needs Iranian gas for 5-10 years while confirming the ministry’s agreement with the Iranian side to supply the country with 50 million cubic meters of gas per day.

The repayment of Iraq’s debts to Iran came at a time when US unilateral sanctions against Iran are still in place. This may be the reason why some analysts underlined the need for South Korea to follow in the footsteps of Iraq. South Korea owes Iran US$7 billion in oil debts and has been reluctant to clear its debts. Iran has called on Seoul to pay its debts but the Iranian demand has fallen on deaf ears. 

South Korea has linked the repayment of debts to the outcome of talks in Vienna over reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh pointed to South Korea’s stonewalling in his Monday presser. “A new government has come to power in South Korea and they have made promises that they want to pay off Iran's debt, but we have not seen any move,” he said.

Khatibzadeh noted, “We are waiting to see the difference between the new government and the previous non-compliant government in terms of debt repayment.”

He then appeared to compare South Korea with Iraq. “We give the new Korean government time to show in practice what it is doing to repay its debts, like the friends we had in the region,” he said. 

 

Is Pakistan at the verge of technical default?

This mornings I was alarmed to listen to three rumours: 1) banks are unable to buy foreign exchange for their clients from the inter-bank market, 2) whatever US dollars are still held by the central bank just can’t be used and 3) most probably the PML-N will do, what it did in nineties ‑ freezing of foreign currency accounts of Pakistanis till the time forex starts flowing into Pakistan.

I had brief chat with some of the senior analysts and the conclusion was, “Pakistan is at the verge of technical default”.

The overwhelming consensus was, “It is not because of any weakness of the economy of the country, but due to the inability of the decision makers to make prudent and timely decisions”.

The consensus was, “If the casual attitude of the policy planners is not changed immediately, they will only hasten the default”.

The first and the worst habit of the incumbent government is that it spends more time on blaming the previous government, but does not take into accounts its own acts.

It talks about austerity, but indulges in extravaganzas.

It even fails in listening to what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and friendly countries (also willing to support Pakistan) are saying.

The coalition partners were too keen to control the reigns, but neither had the plans to take the country out of the crisis.

Someone was indecent but may be right, “They wanted to take their names out of Exit Control List (ECL) as well get immunity to rule the country”.

They neither have the will nor the spine to make difficult decisions.

Raising POL prices and electricity tariffs are the easiest decisions because all their expenses are borne by the government.

Their thinking is still not synchronized with what the IMF is saying.

They have not only failed in containing the twin deficits (budget deficit and current account deficit) which is also proliferating the third deficit – confidence deficit.

War in Ukraine could last years, NATO chief

From the very beginning, I have the strongest belief that Russia-Ukraine conflict has been instigated by the United States to weaken one of the largest crude oil producing country. I also have sympathy with the people of Ukraine who have been dragged in this war by offering a ‘lollipop’. NATO/European Union membership. 

While no efforts have been made by United States to solicit ceasefire, tons of ‘outdated’ arsenals have been hurdled into Ukraine. My faith gained further strength after reading one of the statements Head of NATO, “War in Ukraine could last for years’.    

Reportedly, the Head of NATO said on Sunday, the war in Ukraine could last for years, as Russia stepped up its assaults after the European Union recommended that Kyiv become a candidate to join the bloc.

Jens Stoltenberg said supplying state-of-the-art weaponry to Ukrainian troops would boost the chance of freeing its eastern region of Donbas from Russian control, Germany's Bild am Sonntag newspaper reported.

"We must prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not let up in supporting Ukraine," Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of the military alliance, was quoted as saying.

"Even if the costs are high, not only for military support, also because of rising energy and food prices."

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who visited Kyiv on Friday, also spoke of a need to prepare for a long war.

This meant ensuring "Ukraine receives weapons, equipment, ammunition and training more rapidly than the invader," Johnson wrote in an opinion piece in London's Sunday Times.

"Time is the vital factor," he wrote. "Everything will depend on whether Ukraine can strengthen its ability to defend its soil faster than Russia can renew its capacity to attack."

Ukraine received a significant boost on Friday when the European Commission recommended it for candidate status, decision EU nations are expected to endorse at a summit this week.

That would put Ukraine on course to realize an aspiration seen as out of reach before Russia's February 24 invasion, even if membership could take years.

The industrial city of Sievierodonetsk, a prime target in Moscow's offensive to seize full control of Luhansk — one of the two provinces making up the Donbas — faced heavy artillery and rocket fire again, the Ukrainian military said.

"Russian forces will likely be able to seize Sievierodonetsk in the coming weeks, but at the cost of concentrating most of their available forces in this small area," analysts at a Washington-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, wrote in a note.

Serhiy Gaidai, the Ukrainian appointed Governor of Luhansk, told Ukrainian television, "All Russian claims that they control the town are a lie. They control the main part of the town, but not the whole town."

In the twin city of Lysychansk across the river, Gaidai said on the Telegram messaging app, residential buildings and private houses had been destroyed, adding, "People are dying on the streets and in bomb shelters."

Ukraine's military acknowledged that "the enemy has partial success in the village of Metolkine," just southeast of Sievierodonetsk.

Russia's state news agency TASS said many Ukrainian fighters had surrendered in Metolkine, citing a source working for Russian-backed separatists.

One of Russian President Vladimir Putin's stated goals in ordering troops into Ukraine was to halt the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance and keep Moscow's southern neighbour outside the West's sphere of influence.

However, the Western media continue to say, the war has killed thousands, reduced cities to rubble and sent millions fleeing. It is having opposite effect — convincing Finland and Sweden to seek to join NATO — and helping to pave the way for Ukraine's EU membership bid.

 

US Ambassador readying people of Bangladesh for an ‘engineered’ election

On June 13, 2022, I had posted a blog titled “United States starts playing regime change mantra in Bangladesh”. I quoted Jamie Raskin, Member of US House of Representatives, urging his colleagues to join him in standing with the people of Bangladesh, especially those bravest and most vulnerable. 

Today, I am quoting what the US Ambassador to Bangladesh, Peter Haas has said lately.

US Ambassador said the sanctions on Rab will not damage the bilateral relationship and that the two countries, which have deep ties, will move on and work together based on shared values of democracy and human rights.

“…A lot of people ask me if I think this will damage our bilateral relations. And I just say, I don’t think it has to,” he said in a talk show titled AmTalk. Video of the event has been uploaded to the Embassy’s Facebook page.

The envoy said there are frictions in the relationship. “And that’s okay when you have a relationship as broad and deep as ours. But what I want to see us do both on Rab and every other aspect is to sit down and to talk about… what do we need to do to resolve this issue.”

Last year, Washington imposed sanctions on Rab and some of its current and former officials.

Haas said his country heard a lot of times how Bangladesh was surprised when the US imposed sanctions.

“And maybe we’re almost surprised they’re surprised, because already in 2018, we stopped providing training to the Rab, because of our concerns on human rights.

For several years, we’ve published in our human rights reports our concerns. We’ve raised it with them in bilateral meetings. And so, while the sanctions may have come as a surprise, the idea that we had concerns should not have.”

The envoy said the US is also not perfect when it comes to democracy but that the striving for democracy must continue.

Referring to Bangladesh, he said there are things that the Bangladeshi people and the government can work on as well and the elections provide a good framing for that, because they’re still more than a year out.

“We don’t favour any particular party, or platform, or anything else … But what we would like to see is what I think all Bangladeshis would like to see, which is an election run at international standards that allow the people of Bangladesh to choose their next leaders in an open, competitive process free of violence and free of coercion.”

Haas said he welcomes some of the signs, some of the signals that they have been receiving.

“Foreign Minister [Abdul] Momen has made it clear that Bangladesh will welcome international observers. And I think that’s critical.

“But the election actually has already started. And so, it’s important to be looking at it all the way from now to make sure that everyone feels safe and secure in their decision on whether or not to participate in any aspect of the upcoming elections,” he added.

 

Israel using gas exports to boost its diplomatic influence

A visit to the Leviathan gas rig off the coast of Haifa illustrates Israel’s opportunity to up its gas game and wield its diplomatic power across the globe. The gas rig is actually quite big.

With three main levels and pipes that seem to go on forever – leaving one wonder how someone figured out how to connect them all.

Leviathan is the largest gas rig in Israeli waters that receives gas from the country’s largest gas reservoir located well over 100 km away. The gas flows through the rig where it is cleaned and then propelled directly to Israel where it immediately powers the country.

Russian invasion of Ukraine has opened what some in the industry call “historic opportunities” for the Jewish state to up its energy game and, in return, increase its diplomatic value and standing in the Middle East and beyond.

The illustrations are bountiful, but two are important: In March, President Isaac Herzog flew to Turkey and met with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Last month, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu visited Jerusalem for talks with Foreign Minister Yair Lapid.

Ankara is heavily reliant on Russia for energy – including 45% of its natural gas and 17% of its oil. Reconciliation with Israel and improving relations is the key for Turkey to be able to potentially diversify its suppliers and cut back its dependence on Russia.

The second example was the flip-flop that Israeli Energy Minister Karin Elharrar did on May 30 when she announced that her ministry would be issuing licenses for new exploration of natural gas in Israeli waters. It was a sharp turn from what the Yesh Atid had announced just six months earlier in December 2021.

Elharrar said, “In the coming year we will focus on the future, on green energy, on energy optimization and on renewable energy, and while we do so we will put aside the development of natural gas, which, as is known, is a short-term solution.”

By May 30, Elharrar was singing a different mantra, “The global energy crisis provides an opportunity for Israel to export natural gas, along with the honest and real concern for what is going on in Europe.”

A global energy crisis and the recognition that Israel can play a role in resolving it and at the same time improving its international standing, makes the big difference.

“The world changed and we cannot ignore it,” said Energy Ministry Director General Lior Schillat. “There is a rise in the demand for gas especially in Europe since the Russia situation and they need a steady supply and the minister did a reassessment in the middle of the year instead of at the end of the year since we think it is possible to increase the supply.”

Oded Eran, Israel’s former Ambassador to the European Union, said that the developments in Europe are a historic opportunity for Israel and the energy minister’s policy reversal needs to be looked at through that prism. On the one hand, Eran explained, was the populist-driven decision last December to stop exploration which had wanted to put Israel on track with the climate change camp while ignoring the economic and diplomatic opportunities that gas provides the country.

Until now, Eran added, Israel was not viewed as an international energy player but just as a regional one. “But now with the war in Ukraine, you can see that Israel is not unimportant,” he said.

As an example, Eran referred to US President Joe Biden’s promise in March to transfer 15 billion cubic meters (BCM) of liquefied natural gas to Europe by the end of 2022 to help with the shortfall caused by the war in Ukraine. Israel, he said, already exports about 10 BCM of natural gas to Jordan and Egypt.

“This is not far from the amount that Biden promised Europe,” he said.

Rising Indian purchases of Russian coal and crude oil

According to a Reuters report, Indian purchases of Russian coal have spiked in recent weeks despite global sanctions on Moscow, as traders offer discounts of up to 30%.

Russia, facing severe Western sanctions, had warned the European Union in April against sweeping sanctions on coal, saying they would backfire as the fuel would be redirected to other markets.

India has refrained from condemning Russia, with which it has longstanding political and security ties, but urged an end to violence in Ukraine. New Delhi defends its purchases of Russian goods as part of an effort to diversify supplies and argues a sudden halt would jack up prices and hurt its consumers.

The US officials had told India there was no ban on energy imports from Russia but they (US administration) do not want to see a rapid escalation in imports from Russia.

As European importers shun trade with Moscow, Indian buyers are mopping up huge quantities of Russian coal despite high freight costs.

Its purchases of coal and related products jumped more than six-fold to US$331.17 million in the recent 20 days from the same period a year earlier, according to unpublished Indian government data reviewed by Reuters.

Similarly, Indian refiners have snapped up cheap Russian oil shunned by Western countries. The value of India's oil trade with Russia during the period under review jumped more than 31-fold to US$2.22 billion, the data showed.

"The Russian traders have been liberal with payment routes and are accepting payments in Indian rupee and United Arab Emirates dirham," one source said. "The discounts are attractive, and this trend of higher Russian coal purchases will continue."

Offshore units of such Russian coal traders as Suek AG, KTK and Cyprus-based Carbo One in places including Dubai and Singapore offered discounts of 25% to 30%, triggering bulk purchases of Russian thermal coal by traders supplying to utilities and cement makers, the sources said.

Another source said the Singapore-based unit of Suek was also accepting payments in dollars.

Suek and KTK did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Reuters could not immediately reach Carbo One.

The EU ban has barred new coal contracts and by mid-August will force the member nations to terminate existing ones.

India bought an average US$16.55 million of Russian coal a day, more than double the US$7.71 million it bought in the three months after Russian invasion on Ukraine on February 24, this year, according to Reuters calculations.

Oil purchases averaged US$110.86 million a day in the 20-day period, more than triple the US$31.16 million it spent in the three months ended May 26, 2022.

Indian bulk buying of Russian coal is set to continue, with June imports expected to be the most in at least seven and a half years, Refinitiv Eikon ship tracking data showed.

Bulk shipments of Russian thermal coal started reaching India in the third week of May, with orders mainly from cement and steel firms and traders, according to shipping data compiled by an Indian coal trader.