Russia warns US against deploying its troops in Central Asian States

Reportedly, Russia has strongly warned the United States against deploying its troops in the former Soviet Central Asian nations following their withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow conveyed the message to Washington during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s summit with US President Joe Biden in Geneva last month.

The warning comes as the US military said that 90% of the withdrawal of US troops and equipment from Afghanistan is complete. Biden said the US military mission in Afghanistan will conclude on 31st August 2021.

“I would emphasize that the redeployment of the American permanent military presence to the countries neighboring Afghanistan is unacceptable,” Ryabkov said. “We told the Americans in a direct and straightforward way that it would change a lot of things not only in our perceptions of what’s going on in that important region, but also in our relations with the United States.”

He added that Russia has also issued the warning to Central Asian nations. “We cautioned them against such steps, and we also have had a frank talk on the subject with our Central Asian allies, neighbors and friends and also other countries in the region that would be directly affected,” Ryabkov said in an interview published in a magazine.

On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are all members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and any presence of foreign troops on their territories must be endorsed by the security pact. He added that none of those countries have raised the issue.

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan both host Russian military bases. Kyrgyzstan, which hosted a US military base that supported operations in Afghanistan, closed it in 2014.

Uzbekistan, which also hosted a US base, ordered it shut in 2005 amid tensions with Washington.

“I don’t think that the emergence of new American military facilities in Central Asia would promote security in the region,” Lavrov said.

The Biden administration has reportedly considered Uzbekistan and Tajikistan that border Afghanistan, as well as Kazakhstan, as possible staging areas for monitoring and quickly responding to possible security problems that may follow the US military’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.

“I don’t think that anyone is interested in becoming a hostage to such US policy and intentions, and in inviting retaliation,” Lavrov said.

The Russian foreign minister questioned what results would be achieved with a small US presence outside Afghanistan when a 100,000 strong NATO force inside the country “failed to do anything.”

“Most probably, they simply want to ensure their military presence in Central Asia and be able to influence the situation in this region.”

As the American and NATO troops were swiftly pulling out, the Taliban have made quick gains across the country. They claimed on Friday that they now control 85% of Afghanistan’s territory.

Russian officials have expressed concern that the Taliban surge could destabilize Central Asia.

Taliban advances already have forced hundreds of Afghan soldiers to flee across the border into Tajikistan which called up 20,000 military reservists to strengthen its southern border with Afghanistan.

Last week, a senior Taliban delegation visited Moscow to offer assurances that the insurgents’ advances in Afghanistan do not threaten Russia or its allies in Central Asia.

Iran dissidents seeking Israeli support

A group of Iranian dissidents last Thursday published a congratulatory letter to Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, urging him to support democracy in Iran and continue Israel’s campaign to stop Tehran’s state sponsored terrorism.

The opponents of the theocratic state, who are based outside the Islamic Republic, wrote, “For more than four decades, threatening the existence of the State of Israel and hatred of the Jewish people has been an inseparable component of the Islamic Republic’s rule. In addition to its promotion of international terrorism, the regime has produced nothing but poverty, economic bankruptcy, suppression and a myriad of social problems for the people of Iran.”

“Iranians, specifically in the past several years, have gone out onto the streets many times and bravely protested against the Islamic Republic – protests that were suppressed in the most ruthless manner possible,” they wrote. “For these reasons, both the prosperity and democratic future of Iranians and the safety of Israeli citizens and the Jewish people require the overthrow of this ideological, medieval regime that is on the cusp of acquiring a nuclear bomb.”

The dissidents called on Bennett to “continue your nation’s correct policy of the past several years of weakening the terrorist forces of this regime, especially the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), with increased decisiveness. The regime that massacres Iranian protesters in streets across our country is the head of the octopus, whose tentacles are the terrorists who extend insecurity to the State of Israel and other nations in our region.”

“To that end, we ask that you decisively and comprehensively support the protests of the varying, but united, groups of the Iranian people, bravely fighting to take charge of their own destiny through a democratic government, which will reestablish peaceful relations with its neighbors and the international community,” the signatories wrote. “We also request that you support the Iranian people with anti-filtering and anti-censorship technology.”

The letter concluded with a call for diplomatic relations to be established between a post-Islamic Republic Iranian government and Israel under the title “Cyrus Accords,” a phrase coined by Victoria Coates and Len Khodorkovsky in a February opinion article in The Jerusalem Post.

“The Iranian people have consistently and clearly expressed their opposition to the regime’s anti-Israel and antisemitic policies,” the signatories wrote. “We believe that a democratic Iran, supported by its rich culture and history, will be a strategic ally of Israel and a productive member of the international community in establishing peace and stability, specifically in the Middle East. We await the day when the two ancient nations of Iran and Israel, under the auspices of the Cyrus Accords, establish serious political, cultural, economic and technological relations, and we believe that day is closer than ever.”

The letter was signed by prominent Iranians in the diaspora, including Saba Farzan, an Iranian-German journalist; Cameron Khansarinia, the US-based policy director of the National Union for Democracy in Iran; Maryam Memarsadeghi, a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute; Majid Mohamadi, a retired academic, writer and Iran analyst; and Fred Saberi, an Iranian-Swedish political analyst of Middle East affairs. 

Afghan interpreters or spies

 

While I am certainly concerned about the security and well being of these ‘interpreters’, a question also comes to mind, are these interpreters or spies? The concern of the US administration weakens their case, especially because these will not go to United States, but to other countries. Does the US administration believe these will be safe in any third country?

Biden's administration is also grappling with its plan for expedited visas for Afghan people most at risk of being attacked by the Taliban, including translators who worked with foreign forces. Rights groups are pushing to add up to 2,000 vulnerable women to the list.

US Representative Mike McCaul, speaking to Reuters after discussing the plan with administration officials, said the evacuees will comprise some 9,000 interpreters who have applied for Special Immigration Visas and their families.

"You are probably talking about 50,000 people. There's no way to expedite their visas on a timely basis that would save their lives," said McCaul, the top Republican on the House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs and a leading advocate of evacuating US-affiliated Afghans.

Nearly 20 US senators now back legislation to help protect Afghan civilians who supported US forces during the 20-year-long war in their country, a lead sponsor of the bill said on Friday, a day after President Joe Biden set a target date of August 31, 2021 for withdrawal.

Democratic US Senator Jeanne Shaheen said at least 17 Democratic and Republican senators are now sponsoring her bill to increase the number of authorized visas and take other steps to improve the efficiency of a program to help bring to the United States Afghans who helped US troops.

In a speech on Thursday, Biden strongly defended his decision to pull US military forces out of Afghanistan, and set a target date of the end of next month for the final withdrawal of US forces.

A growing number of Biden's fellow Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and House of Representatives have been urging his administration to do more for thousands of civilians who helped US troops, often risking their lives and those of their families.

"We have a moral imperative to act now – before it’s too late – and fulfill our promise of safety for the Afghans who stood shoulder-to-shoulder with our troops," Shaheen said in a statement.

Senators co-sponsoring the bill include Democrats Dick Durbin, Patrick Leahy, Jack Reed, Mark Kelly, Kirsten Gillibrand and Tim Kaine, as well as Angus King, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.

Republicans signed on to the measure include Joni Ernst, Roger Wicker, Steve Daines, Ben Sasse, Tim Scott, Dan Sullivan, Cynthia Lummis, Rob Portman and Todd Young.

Members of the House are also working on legislation to help the Afghan civilians. Many lawmakers have voiced support for evacuating interpreters and others who worked with US forces to third countries to protect them while their applications for visas to reach the United States are reviewed.

Jordan joins Egypt for handling Iraqi oil

On 27^th June 2021, King Abdullah II of Jordan met with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Baghdad. All three announced an agreement to cooperate on transporting Iraqi oil through pipelines from Iraq to Jordan to Egypt, from where it will be exported to Europe through the Mediterranean.

This agreement is King Abdullah’s “coming out of the closest” with Iran. It is now official: Jordan is allied with Iran because Iraq is actually under Iran’s control. Exporting Iraqi oil through Jordan to Europe is simply exporting oil controlled by Iran, which rules Iraq through its Shi’ite militias and controls the country’s resources.

One day after this happened, Jordanian state media began promoting full financial cooperation with Iran. This is as shocking to the Jordanian public as it was to the Egyptian public 40 years ago when then-president Anwar Sadat announced peace with Israel.

King Abdullah’s adviser, Zaid Nabulsi, a member of the newly appointed “king’s Advisory Board,” told the media, “Iranian religious tourism will breathe life back into Jordan.” Government-controlled media sites began speaking about one million expected religious tourists. Those are meant to visit the southern village of Kerak, 120 km south of Amman, to visit the shrine of Jaffar Ibn Abu Taleb. In addition to that, the Jordanian and Arab press began speaking of an Iranian proposal to build an airport in Kerak.

Jaffar Ibn Abu Taleb was the Prophet Muhammad’s cousin who died fighting against the Byzantine Empire in Kerak. His shrine is considered most holy to the Shi’ite faith. Nonetheless, the Sunni faith generally bans visiting graves for worship and considers it an act of infidelity toward God, hence the shrine is mostly closed. Nonetheless, the king himself went for a visit to promote and help legitimize these future visits

It went further, with a monarchy-supported campaign to even promote the Shi’ite faith itself. This is what Iran did in both Syria and Iraq. This is exactly how it all began.

A Jordanian journalist known for his close ties to the Hashemite monarch, Mouafaq Mahadeen, appeared on TV two nights after the king’s visit and said “80% of Lebanon’s Shi’ites are originally from Kerak.” Jordanian media sites repeated that Iran was considering building an airport in Kerak. Old news stories resurfaced of Iran allegedly promising to supply the kingdom with free oil for 30 years

On July 3, Jordanian TV broadcast a show in which the speakers claimed it was not at all dangerous to welcome the Iranians into Jordan as tourists. This was in response to mutual threats and warnings issued by the leaders of the Palestinian majority of the country as well as the Bedouin native minority. Both issued messages to the king on 1st July 2021 warning him against bringing Iran into Jordan. In a normal situation, both sides would not dare criticize the king, let alone send him a warning.

The king of Jordan believes that opening the door to the Shi’ites will save his country from various crises facing the country. But analysts say this will be a double-edged sword, and it will not take long for Jordan to sink into darkness just like Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen have. Israel fears of opening another front, sending drones, or even digging tunnels in the areas bordering Jordan, which will be under the control of the Shi’ites.

Can India-Iran alliance bring peace in Afghanistan?

Santosh Mehrotra, an Indian professor said, India and Iran ‑ two emerging Asian powers ‑ can play a key role in establishing peace in Afghanistan, he was talking to The Tehran Times. 

Mehrotra said, “This regional role might emerge if there was a strong role of Iran and India in a transition to peace and progressive development in Afghanistan. However, the Taliban's whole effort would be to prevent that, so that they can keep the support of Pakistan.”

“Both Iran and India can be forces for good in Afghanistan, where peace and development will benefit all the people of Afghanistan.” the visiting professor in the Center for Economic Development at the University of Bath noted.

Talking about India’s economic rise amid the China-US row in Asia,  Mehrotra said, “This balancing act for India would have been easier if China's rise as an economic and military power was accompanied by less, not more, aggressiveness in international affairs. But China's behavior has become more aggressive in many dimensions in Asia and the world. India was left with little choice to joining with the Quad (United States, Japan, Australia and India). China's entering Ladakh territory in 2020 totally disturbed the border equilibrium between India and China prevailing for decades. 

“India and Iran have historically enjoyed very close and warm relations. This has been evident in the long-standing economic relations, especially, India's long agreements to import Iran oil. The US sanctions against Iran have queered this pitch, unfortunately. Nevertheless, India still pressed ahead with the agreement on the Chabahar port development project. With the 2020 election result in the US, the likelihood of US sanctions on Iran continuing may diminish. This will again enable a further deepening of the Indo-Iran ties, which have centuries-old and deep historical roots,” Mehrotra added
 
As regards, Asian emerging powers like Iran, Turkey and India forming a coalition, Mehrotra said, “Asian emerging powers can have a regional role. This regional role might emerge if there was a strong role of Iran and India in a transition to peace and progressive development in Afghanistan. However, the Taliban's whole effort would be to prevent that, so that they can keep the support of Pakistan. Both Iran and India can be forces for good in Afghanistan, where peace and development will benefit all the people of Afghanistan.”
  

What caused fire at ship at Jebel Ali?

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the explosion and subsequent fire on board a container ship anchored at the quay side in Jebel Ali was caused by a container load of fireworks. The ship, thought to be the 210 teu Ocean Trader owned by Sash Shipping Group, based in Dubai endured a loud explosion that shook buildings in the city.

An industry source said that the vessel was a feeder ship and the cargo would have been transshipment freight. He suggested the vessel had called at a number of ports in the Gulf and at Karachi in Pakistan before arriving in Jebel Ali.

Dubai media office Director General, Mona Al Marri said, “The fire at Dubai’s Jebel Ali port was caused by an explosion from a ‘normal accident’ in a container holding flammable material.”

After the explosion, emergency services quickly brought the fire under control – in less than an hour, according to a Jebel Ali Port statement.

Director General of Dubai Civil Defense Maj Gen Rashid Thani Al Matrooshi confirmed the fire was fully under control and the cooling process is under way.

No deaths or injuries were reported and the security company Dryad Global, investigating early reports that Israel had retaliated following last week’s attack on the CSAV Tyndall in the ongoing Israel/Iran shadow war, was adamant that there was no military involvement. “It is not how they [the Israeli armed forces] would target a vessel or Iran,” said a spokesman.

Jebel Ali port is owned and operated by the Dubai-based DP world. The port is located at the northern tip of Dubai and has 4 tumbling container terminals that can dock some of the largest vessels present globally. This busiest American warship's port of call outside the US is the largest established deep-water harbor on the globe.

DP world often describes the Jebel Ali port as the lifeline for Dubai and "gateway hub", as it has some vital links connecting the eastern and western markets, serving as the point of entry to the global trade network. The state-run company didn't issue any public declaration immediately after the explosion.

Taliban seizing key border crossings of Afghanistan

In addition to militarily taking control of key districts throughout the country, Taliban is cutting off the key revenue sources to the Afghan government by taking control of important border crossings that serve as dry ports for goods shipped overseas. Taliban now controls three of Afghanistan’s eight dry ports, including two on the border with Iran.

In the past 24 hours, the Taliban took control of the Islam Qala and Turghundi border crossings, both in Herat province and bordering Iran. The Taliban seized the Shirkhan Bander crossing in Kunduz province which borders Uzbekistan two weeks ago, and has maintained control of the crossing.

Afghan forces protecting all three dry ports put up little resistance. In all three instances, the Afghan security forces and customs officials abandoned their posts and fled across the border.

There are eight dry ports in Afghanistan, two of which are inland and located in Kabul City and Mazar-i-Sharif (Hairatan Dry Port). The other three dry ports, Torkham in Nangarhar, Aqeena in Faryab, and Spin Boldak in Kandahar are currently under government control. However, heavy fighting has been reported in Spin Boldak district and the Taliban is slowly advancing on the Spin Boldak crossing.

The dry ports are major sources of revenue for an impoverished Afghan nation. The Islam Qala Dry Port generates an estimated US$20 million a month.

The security situation has deteriorated rapidly since President Biden announced the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan on 14^th April 2021.

At present, Taliban control 204 districts and contests another 124 districts, according to the real time assessment by FDD’s Long War Journal.

Prior to the Taliban’s offensive, which began in earnest on 1^st May 2021 – upon expiration of the date that the US government originally committed to completing its withdrawal under the Doha Agreement – the Taliban controlled only 73 districts and contested another 210.

Afghan Districts	As of May 1, 2021	As of July 5, 2021
Taliban Controlled	73	204
Contested	210	124
Government Controlled	115	70

The Taliban’s strategy of seizing rural districts has not only allowed it to surround major cities and put pressure on population centers, it has also enabled it to squeeze the Afghan government’s revenue from goods crossing the border.