What is holding back OIC from asking Israel to stop its atrocities?

Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan has condemned Israeli attack on Palestinians outside the Al Aqsa mosque during the holy month of Ramazan and reiterated his call on the international community and the Muslim world to take steps to protect the Palestinians and their legitimate rights.

One of my critics asked this question; even if they convene a meeting and pass a resolution condemning Israeli acts, will it make any difference? I insisted that holding an emergency meeting may prove that Muslim countries are united and support the Palestinians cause.

Having said that I could not resist from saying, “They may show lukewarm response and send low ranking official to attend the meeting, but wording of the resolution will be non-consequential.”

In support of my rational I have the following arguments:

It is no secret that for more than seven decades residents of, Palestine and Kashmir have been bearing the brunt of divided Muslim Ummah. Their miseries have persisted because of the vested interest of those countries, which enjoy the power to convince the global and regional super powers to resolve these long outstanding issues.

Today, I will not talk about Kashmir issue because it does not have common border with countries located in Arabian Peninsula. My heart is bleeding on the apathy of these countries towards killing of their Arab brothers by Israel in the occupied territories. I will not talk about heinous crimes against Palestinians over the last seven decades, but the most recent one, indiscriminate killing of Muslims in Jerusalem on last Friday.

It is known to all and sundry that Jews paid a heavy amount to the then US president, Donald Trump to do two things: 1) recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and 2) relocate the US embassy to newly recognized capital. All the oil rich Arab countries didn’t resist this move. In fact they were advised to normalize relationship with Israel, some have already done this, while others have also accepted but waiting for an opportune time to make the declaration.

Another friend said, “Iran is anti-United States and can be convinced to draft a heavily worded resolution.” I also have my doubts because most of the Arabs believe “Iran is a bigger threat as compared to Israel” and may not even like to invite it.

Many ardent followers of Imran Khan in Pakistan believe that he is capable of leading Muslim Ummah. However, many Arab countries also may not like the idea. Regrettably, some of these countries believe only they have the right to lead Muslim Ummah.

Therefore, I don’t expect any encouraging response from oil-rich Arab countries on holding an emergency meeting of OIC. They may not like making Khan a leader of Muslim Ummah.

Hillary and Condoleezza express concerns over withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan

Two of the former US Secretaries of State, Hillary Clinton and Condoleezza Rice told members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee they're worried about President Biden's plan to withdraw all US troops from Afghanistan, with Rice suggesting the US may need to go back. 

The position puts two former Secretaries of State — one from the Obama and other from Bush administrations at odds with one of Biden's most significant foreign policy moves to date.

The new president has vowed to complete the withdrawal by 11th September 2021, the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attack. U.S. forces were sent to Afghanistan by Rice's then-boss, former President George W. Bush, to destroy havens used by the attack's organizers.

Clinton and Rice offered their reactions during a members-only Zoom call.

Rice's office did not want to comment on a private briefing. Clinton's spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

"We had Secretaries Clinton and Condi Rice Zoom with the committee," one committee member told. "A little disagreement on Afghanistan, but they both agreed we're going to need to sustain a counterterrorism mission somehow outside of that country."

“Condi Rice was like, you know, we’re probably going to have to go back, amid a potential surge in terrorism,” the member said.

Rep. Mike McCaul (R-Texas), the top Republican on the committee, told "With the potential for an Islamic State, coupled with what they're going to do to our contractors in Yemen and Afghanistan is, sadly, it's going to be tragic there and we all see it coming."

Another member of the committee confirmed both Clinton and Rice raised concerns about the potential fallout from a quick removal of all US troops.

Both also expressed concerns about protecting US diplomats on the ground following the withdrawal and what the move will mean for the global war on terrorism.

Both Rice and Clinton supported military intervention in the Middle East following the attacks on 11th September 2001.

Rice, who was Bush's national security adviser at the time, helped craft the administration's wartime response.

Then Senator Clinton — considered by many as a military hawk — voted in 2002 to give Bush the authority to go to war, a vote she later said she regretted while on the presidential campaign trail.

Clinton also supported surging additional troops to Afghanistan in 2009.

Unending saga of ship that stuck in Suez Canal

Evergreen mega container ship that grounded in Suez Canal on 23^rd March 2021, despite being afloat after six days and resumption of traffic, has not been allowed to move out of Suez Canal. While there is talk about the claim filed by Suez Canal Authority (SCA), no one seems bothered about fate of the cargo loaded at the ship.

Lately, an Egyptian court has rejected an appeal by the owner of the mega container ship that has been impounded by SCA for blocking the channel for nearly a week in March 2021.

The SCA said the vessel would not be allowed to leave the country until a compensation amount is settled on with the vessel’s Japanese owner, Shoei Kisen Kaisha.

A court in Ismailia had ordered the seizure of the vessel. The Ever Given’s owner filed an appeal on April 22 in hopes of overturning the decision.

The SCA has demanded US$916 million in compensation that covers salvage operation, costs of stalled canal traffic and lost transit fees for the week the Ever Given blocked the canal.

Negotiations between the SCA and the ship owner were still ongoing to settle the compensation claim. Shoei Kisen said it has notified a number of the owners of the approximately 18,000 containers on the ship to assume part of the damages demand.

The Ever Given was on its way to the Dutch port of Rotterdam and on 23rd March 2021 it slammed into the bank of a single-lane stretch of the canal about 6 kilometers north of the southern entrance, near the city of Suez.

A massive salvage ended the crisis after six days, allowing hundreds of waiting ships to pass through the Canal.

The blockage of the canal forced some ships to take the long alternate route around the Cape of Good Hope at Africa’s southern tip, requiring additional fuel and other costs. Hundreds of other ships waited in place for the blockage to end.

In a statement, Osama Rabie, the SCA chairman, expressed hopes that a solution acceptable to all parties will be found.

“The Authority is dealing with all the specific requirements of the negotiation with complete flexibility, in full respect for international norms in these sorts of situations,” Rabie said.

Rabie denied claims that the ship’s crew had been arrested, and said that the authority has no objection to crew members leaving or being replaced, provided that a sufficient number of sailors needed to secure the ship is present. He said that the ship’s captain needs to be present as the guardian of the vessel and its cargo.

The ship’s protection and indemnity insurer, UK Club, and its technical manager, Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement (BSM), have said they were disappointed that the ship was being held.

UK Club has filed an appeal in an Egyptian court against its detention, citing a lack of supporting evidence for the SCA’s claim.

 Suez Canal chiefs on Tuesday implemented an Egyptian court order to seize the giant cargo ship that blocked the waterway for almost a week in March.

 “On April 12, a carefully considered and generous offer was made to the SCA to settle their claim. We are disappointed by the SCA’s subsequent decision to arrest the vessel today.”

Reinsurers are set to foot most of the bill for the grounding of the ship that halted traffic in the Suez Canal, industry sources said, with payouts expected to run into hundreds of millions of dollars.

Analysts at DBRS Morningstar said that total insured losses “will remain manageable given the relatively short period of time that the canal was blocked.”

Lloyd’s of London last week said the incident would likely result in a “large loss” for the commercial insurance and reinsurance market of at least US$100 million.

Istanbul Canal: Benefits and pitfalls

Turkey has signaled that it intends to start work this year on Istanbul Canal project, an artificial canal connecting the Black Sea to the Sea of Marmara. 

The project has faced controversy within Turkey for its cost, environmental impact and potential for corruption. But its international implications could be substantial as well, threatening the delicate regional military balance and impacting maritime trade with the Caucasus and Central Asia. 

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said in early April that a tender would be issued and preliminary construction work would begin this year on the 45-kilometer ship canal. 

The stated purpose of construction of this canal is to create a safer transit route for oil tankers to transport crude from the Black Sea to global markets, which now traverse the narrow, occasionally treacherous Bosphorus straits through the country’s largest city, Istanbul. Construction of the canal and associated infrastructure is estimated to cost more than US$20 billion.

Most recently, the canal became the source of political turmoil in Turkey when a group of 104 retired admirals published an open letter warning that it would undermine the Montreux Convention, the treaty which since 1936 has governed passage between the Aegean and Black seas and given Turkey geopolitical heft in the region.

The convention stipulates that all merchant ships must be given free passage during peacetime through the Turkish straits, the Bosphorus through Istanbul and the Dardanelles further to the southwest that separate the Sea of Marmara from the Aegean Sea. It also restricts the movement of military vessels, limiting them to 15,000 tons or under, with additional curbs on the size and type of weaponry they can carry, and places a limit of 21 days in the Black Sea for military vessels from countries not bordering the sea. 

Following the admirals’ letter, Erdogan responded that Turkey remains committed to the Montreux Convention. But he also confirmed that the Turkish government sees the planned canal as not subject to the convention’s regulations.

That admission could give credence to the admirals’ warning that the canal would expand access for military vessels into and out of the Black Sea. It could thus both upset the regional security balance and pit Ankara against its neighbors and other international players.

The convention’s restrictions limit NATO members’ naval activities in the Black Sea, as well as Russia’s ability to send large vessels from its Black Sea fleet into the Mediterranean.

If the planned canal turns out not to be subject to the Montreux Convention, it would allow Turkey to permit larger and more powerful naval vessels, like aircraft carriers, in and out of the Black Sea, and for longer periods.

The public rationale for the project, though, has little to do with security. Its ostensible logic is instead rooted in the Bosphorus’s key role in international trade.

Currently, crude oil from Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan arrives in the Black Sea via five separate pipelines from central Russia and the Caspian Sea, where it is loaded onto tankers.

Turkish officials have argued that flow through these pipelines is going to rise, which would lead to increased tanker traffic through the Bosphorus.

Turkish officials insist that the canal will offer a safer option for transit than the Bosphorus, and have suggested that the canal would allow shippers to avoid the delays from which Bosphorus traffic occasionally suffers. 

While it’s true that navigation through the planned canal will not entail the same tricky 90-degree turns that the Bosphorus requires, accidents in the straits are nevertheless extremely rare.

The last major incident involving a tanker – a Russian fuel oil tanker, not a super tanker carrying crude oil, was back in 1999, before a radar vessel transit system (VTS) was installed to track vessels and help aid safer navigation. Over the 19 years since the VTS has been in operation there have been no major incidents involving tankers and no oil spills at all. 

Delays are not uncommon on the Bosphorus, which can be closed due to bad weather or the passage of unusually large vessels which require traffic to be restricted to one direction only. But they rarely last more than a few hours and the canal, if built, would likely face similar limitations.

Ankara says it will not allow tankers carrying liquid natural gas (LNG) to transit the Bosphorus, a stance that technically violates the Montreux Convention. Interestingly no Black Sea littoral state has an LNG import or export terminal. A point also to ponder is this canal will be narrower than and potentially just as dangerous as the Bosphorus.

And the recent incident on the Suez Canal, which was blocked for six days after a container vessel ran aground, demonstrates that even the best managed canals are not immune from accidents. 

Is Israel losing resilience?

Once upon a time Israel was considered invincible, but now it is being said openly that its security has eroded and its safety bubble burst in the last few months. The situations demands an assessment of Israeli vulnerability and the weakening of other US allies and partners in the region.  

It is being said that Israel faces political and social disintegration. It has suffered strikes against its maritime interests and also witnessed cyber security vulnerabilities.

The fragility and vulnerability of the Israeli national security system is getting exposed.

The country had held four elections to appoint a prime minister, but still unable to do so and probably go for the fifth election. The system has received extraordinary injuries.

It is not the first time that Israeli strategic installations have been attacked. While Tehran claims it is retaliating against Israel, most of these have been termed accidents or total myths by Israel.

Several Israeli-owned ships have been attacked in the Gulf of Oman. This includes a February incident involving the MV Helios Ray. The Hyperion Ray was allegedly attacked in April, after a Wall Street Journal report claim that Israel had struck a dozen Iranian ships.  

Israel seems to be collapsing from within and may face further problems with the US gradually leaving the region.

It seems the US is not willing to support its allies. It is distancing from Saudi Arabia, after having achieve self sufficiency in crude oil production.

Political balance seems to be emerging in Syria and the country is getting ready to hold election.

There is political unity in Iraq and resistance movements seem to getting further strength.

The US faces pressure from Iraqi groups who are trying to expel it from the region.

As the US losing influence, Iran is getting ready to play a new role in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Afghanistan.

Corona virus likely to move from India to neighboring countries

The world is watching India’s coronavirus crisis but Asia’s developing nations are all at risk. From Laos, Vietnam and Thailand in Southeast Asia to Bhutan and Nepal bordering India, countries have been reporting significant surges.

The reported spikes in these handfuls of nations have been steep enough to raise the alert against potential dangers of an uncontrolled spread. The increase is mainly because of more contagious virus variants, though complacency and lack of resources to contain the spread have also been cited as reasons.

In Laos last week, the health minister sought medical equipment, supplies and treatment, as cases jumped more than 200-fold in a month.

In Nepal hospitals have been quickly filling up and running out of oxygen supplies. With infections surging, will Nepal be the next Covid-19 hotspot?

In Vietnam, authorities on Tuesday closed schools in Hanoi as Vietnam battles its first wave of Covid-19 cases via community transmission in more than a month.

In Thailand health facilities are under pressure, as 98% of new cases are from a more infectious strain of the pathogen, while some island nations in the Pacific Ocean are facing their first Covid waves.

Although nowhere close to India’s population or flare-up in scope, the reported spikes in these countries have been far steeper, signaling the potential dangers of an uncontrolled spread. The resurgence – and first-time outbreaks in some places that largely avoided the scourge last year – heightens the urgency of delivering vaccine supplies to poorer, less influential countries and averting a protracted pandemic.

Also on top of the list are Bhutan, Trinidad and Tobago, Suriname, Cambodia and Fiji, as they reported the epidemic erupting at a high triple-digit pace.

All countries are at risk as disease appears to be becoming endemic and will likely remain a risk to all countries for the foreseeable future.

The situation is very serious as new variants require a new vaccine and a booster for those already vaccinated. The economic hardship of poorer countries makes the battle even tougher.

The new cases emerged shortly before a three-day public holiday in Vietnam when many families travel across the country, raising the risk of a wider outbreak.

In Sri Lanka, authorities have isolated areas, banned weddings and meetings and closed cinemas and pubs to cap a record spike following last month’s local New Year festivities. The government says the situation is under control.

The Covax program to distribute vaccines around the world had planned to ship 1.9 million doses in the first half of this year. However, India’s surge in cases has resulted in global shortages.

The situations in many countries prove that vaccines are far from a panacea. Some vaccines, which had been considered highly effective, caused severe side effects, including even death, leading many countries to stop their use.

Commemorating Nakba Day

Every year on May 15, millions of Palestinians around the world commemorate Nakba Day, or the catastrophe that befell them in 1948. This catastrophe resulted in the dispossession of an estimated 750,000 refugees from historic Palestine, and the uprooting of two-thirds of the Palestinian Arab population and their society in the process of the creation of the State of Israel. 

73 years later, the Nakba remains central to Palestinian national identity and political aspirations, as evidenced by the 2018-19 Gaza March of Return and even the recent protests in Jerusalem. However, despite being a core Palestinian grievance, the Nakba continues to be whitewashed or denied outright by pundits, lobbyists, and even policymakers. 

Commemoration of the day has been taught by Arab citizens of Israel who were internally displaced as a result of the 1948 war has been practiced for decades, but until the early 1990s was relatively weak. Initially, the memory of the catastrophe of 1948 was personal and communal in character and families or members of a given village would use the day to gather at the site of their former villages. Small scale commemorations of the tenth anniversary in the form of silent vigils were held by Arab students at a few schools in Israel in 1958, despite attempts by the Israeli authorities to thwart them. Visits to the sites of former villages became increasingly visible after the events of Land Day in 1976.

As early as 1949, one year after the establishment of the State of Israel, 15 May was marked in several West Bank cities (under Jordanian rule) by demonstrations, strikes, the raising of black flags, and visits to the graves of people killed during the 1948 war. These events were organized by worker and student associations, cultural and sports clubs, scouts clubs, committees of refugees, and the Muslim Brotherhood. The speakers in these gatherings blamed the Arab governments and the Arab League for failing to "save Palestine". By the late 1950s, 15 May would be known in the Arab world as Palestine Day, mentioned by the media in Arab and Muslim countries as a day of international solidarity with Palestine.

In the wake up of the failure of the 1991 Madrid Conference to broach the subject of refugees, the Association for the Defense of the Rights of the Internally Displaced in Israel was founded to organize a March of Return to the site of a different village every year on 15 May so as to place the issue on the Israeli public agenda.

By the early 1990s, annual commemorations of the day by Palestinian Arab citizens of Israel held a prominent place in the community's public discourse.

It is believed that Israeli Arabs taught the residents of the territories to commemorate Nakba Day. Palestinians in the occupied territories were called upon to commemorate 15 May as a day of national mourning by the Palestine Liberation Organization's United National Command of the Uprising during the First Intifada in 1988. The day was inaugurated by Yasser Arafat in 1998.

The event is often marked by speeches and rallies by Palestinians in Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, in Palestinian refugee camps in Arab states, and in other places around the world. Protests at times develop into clashes between Palestinians and the Israel Defense Forces in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. In 2003 and 2004, there were demonstrations in London and New York City. In 2002, Zochrot was established to organize events raising the awareness of the Nakba in Hebrew so as to bring Palestinians and Israelis closer to a true reconciliation. The name is the Hebrew feminine plural form of "remember".

On Nakba Day 2011, Palestinians and other Arabs from the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Syria marched towards their respective borders, or ceasefire lines and checkpoints in Israeli-occupied territories, to mark the event. At least twelve Palestinians and supporters were killed and hundreds wounded as a result of shootings by the Israeli Army. The Israeli army opened fire after thousands of Syrian protesters tried to forcibly enter the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights resulting in what AFP described as one of the worst incidents of violence there since the 1974 truce accord.

The IDF said troops "fired selectively" towards "hundreds of Syrian rioters" injuring an unspecified number in response to them crossing onto the Israeli side.

According to the BBC, the 2011 Nakba Day demonstrations were given impetus by the Arab Spring. During the 2012 commemoration, thousands of Palestinian demonstrators protested in cities and towns across the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Protesters threw stones at Israeli soldiers guarding checkpoints in East Jerusalem who then fired rubber bullets and tear gas in response.