Widening breach between Israel and Jordan

Israeli ties with Jordan have not been good for a long time. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and King Abdullah do not publicly meet and do not publicly speak. It looks as if Israel’s relations with its neighbor are non-existent; there is barely any trade, tourism, or diplomatic cooperation.

The reasons behind the tension vary. There is the Palestinian issue and lack of progress on the peace track, which the King seems to blame on Netanyahu. There is continued settlement construction which the King blames on Netanyahu. There are other issues like Jordanian concern that the Hashemite Kingdom is losing its hold over al-Aqsa Mosque as well as the way Netanyahu gave a hero’s welcome to an Israeli security guard who shot and killed two Jordanians in Amman in 2017.

The origins of the latest round can be found last Wednesday when Jordanian Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah had planned to visit al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount following coordination with Israel on his security. However, the prince arrived at the Israeli border with more armed guards than had been agreed on, Israeli sources said. The additional guards were not permitted to enter Israel and Hussein canceled his visit.

As a result – and possibly in response – Jordan canceled the permission it had given Israel for Netanyahu’s plane to pass through its airspace on its way to the United Arab Emirates where he was supposed to meet on Thursday with the UAE leader and Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.

As a result, Netanyahu had to cancel what was supposed to have been a historic first visit to the UAE. It was the fourth time the visit was canceled or postponed, not exactly a positive sign when it comes to building new relations between the two countries.

Israel’s decision to prevent a large number of armed Jordanians from entering the Temple Mount was likely done to try and preserve an image of Israeli sovereignty over the holy site. In response, and due to the insult, the Jordanians banned Netanyahu’s plane for the same reason, if you don’t let us into your sovereign territory, we won’t let you into our sovereign territory.

All of this is bad for Israel, bad for Jordan and bad for the region. One of the pillars of stability for Israel over the last few decades has been the fact that it does not face a conventional military threat from the East due to the peace it has with Jordan. As a result, Israel has been able to focus its military where it really needs to – from Gaza in the South to Hezbollah and Syria in the North.

Jordan has also gained from its peace with Israel. It improved its relations with the United States, began to purchase American military hardware and reaps benefits from the close military relationship between Jerusalem and Amman.

For too long, the peace between Israel and Jordan has been cold. It has existed almost exclusively on a government-to-government level with very little public expression or people-to-people exchange.

Normalization between Israel and the UAE shows what is possible but also the type of investment that is needed to make it work. Israel and Jordan need to set aside their differences and reestablish common ground. They will not agree on everything, but working together will be more beneficial for the two countries.

Biden not likely to take any bold action against Iran or Saudi Arabia

Within a very short span of time, it has become evident that President of United States, Joe Biden is not likely to take any bold actions, especially with regard to the Middle East. 

Khashoggi killing was a test case for Biden, who had promised to penalize the Saudi crown prince, but his administration exempted him. This raises serious questions about his proclamation of upholding human rights.

In his election campaign, Biden pledged to reverse Trump's policies and make fundamental changes in US foreign policy. Some observers doubt he can make any significant difference. There is hardly any difference between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to foreign policy of the United States. The conservative-liberal divide appears more significant when it comes to domestic policies.

Biden administration has imposed a ban on some Saudi officials for the Khashoggi killing. But it was not extended to bin Salman. Many believe Biden is not serious when he is talking about human rights, especially with reference to Saudi Arabia.

It may not be wrong to say human rights issues never determine the US foreign policy, it is just a propaganda tools. The mantra is used against hostile states and not the friendly ones. Saudi Arabia is still a US ally and the US does not want to undermine its relations with Riyadh.

It was the United States that pulled out of JCPOA unilaterally in 2018, but Biden administration is not taking concrete steps to rejoin and lifting the sanctions imposed on Iran unilaterally. Biden wants to use the existing sanctions to force Iran to agree to talks on other issues.

Biden policies towards Iran seem even more confusing because he is trying to keep Trump's sanctions in place as well as talking about diplomacy. He wants to force Iran to make some basic concessions, such as reducing its missile program and changing its regional strategy. Biden wants to achieve these goals through diplomacy. Trump, too, wanted to talk to Iran, provided Tehran agreed to his conditions.

Presidents of United States are generally more receptive to Israeli Mantra. Israel has been advising the US not to return to the JCPOA without significant concessions from Tehran. Some hardliners in Israel still hope to trigger a military confrontation between Iran and the United States.

Israel’s military chief has warned of a new plan to strike Iran's nuclear facilities. Some Iraqi groups have claimed that Israel is behind some provocative attacks on US military bases in the Iraqi territory. All this is aimed at derailing the process of revival of JCPOA.

Tehran-Islamabad working on expanding bilateral trade

Iranian Deputy Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs, Hassan Abqari said, “Iran and Pakistan are working together to remove the obstacles in the way of expanding mutual trade”. Abqari said, “Ways to address exchange and banking problems have been identified and pursued by the governments of both the countries.”

Abqari, who traveled to Islamabad on Friday to meet with Pakistani officials and discuss economic relations, pointed to the positive measures taken by the Pakistani government. He said, “Fortunately, relations between the two countries are at a very good level under the Government of Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, and we are hopeful about the outcomes of these mutual efforts.”

The official noted that Iran and Pakistan have a joint venture company, 50 percent of which is owned by the Iranian government and the other 50 percent by the Pakistani side.

“The Company is in a good condition and the works pertaining to the financial and credit institutions of the two sides are conducted through this joint venture” he added.

According to Abqari the major focus of the governments of Iran and Pakistan is the expansion of trade, especially in border areas.

He noted that this issue was addressed in a meeting with Abdul Hafiz Sheikh, Minister of Finance and Revenues of Pakistan in Islamabad on Friday.

Referring to the new conditions facing trade and economic relations of countries due to the outbreak of the coronavirus over the past year, the official said, "We consider these conditions as an opportunity for Iran and Pakistan to improve their previous level of trade relations; we are determined to move forward to resolve some issues related to financial and banking exchange."

In the meeting with Abdul Hafiz Sheikh, the two sides had also discussed the issues related to the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the two countries' trade.

During the discussions, Sheikh informed Iran's Deputy Economy Minister about his country’s comprehensive economic reform program that is aimed at achieving sustainable economic development.

Considering Pakistan’s relatively large consumer market, expansion of trade with the country and boosting exports to its market has become one of Iran's priorities in recent years.

Iran's exports to Pakistan in the past Iranian calendar year were reported at US$1.18 billion, but in the meantime, financial and banking problems have still created obstacles in the way of trade relations with this country.

Earlier this month, the two sides have held an online meeting to discuss issues related to developing border trade and reached an agreement to establish the two countries’ first joint border market.

* Abqari is also Head of Iran Foreign Investment Company (IFIC).

Quad holds first virtual summit

Member countries of the Quadrilateral Framework (Quad) held a virtual summit on Friday. Addressing the meeting, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, US President Joe Biden, Japanese Premier Yoshihide Suga and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison highlighted cooperation among the member countries to beat the global COVID-19 pandemic, with joint partnership on vaccines, and emphasized the need for an open and free Indo-Pacific region. 

“We are united by our democratic values and our commitment to a free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific. Our agenda, covering areas like vaccines, climate change, and emerging technologies make the Quad a force for global good. We will work together, closer than ever before on advancing our shared values and promoting a secure, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” said Modi, who described the Quadrilateral Framework as an “important pillar of stability in the region.”

The member nations agreed to ensure equitable access to vaccines to counter the pandemic. A joint statement, titled ‘The Spirit of the Quad’ said, “We will join forces to expand safe, affordable, and effective vaccine production and equitable access to speed economic recovery and benefit global health.”

Addressing the meeting, President Biden emphasized that the Indo-Pacific region should be governed in accordance to human rights.

 “And we're renewing our commitment to ensure that our region is governed by international law, committed to upholding universal values and free from coercion. We’ve got a big agenda ahead of us,” said Biden.

Addressing the gathering, Morrison laid out the agenda of the Quad in the near future and said, “We join together as leaders of nations to welcome, what I think will be a new dawn in the Indo-Pacific through our gathering.”

Prime Minister Suga acknowledged the new dynamism that Quad has received because of the meeting of the top leaders of the member countries.

 “With the four countries working together, I wish to firmly advance our cooperation to realise, a free and open Indo Pacific, and to make a tangible contribution to the peace, stability, and prosperity of the region, including overcoming COVID-19,” he said.

The ‘Quad’, has been taken to the apex level, said Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla during a special briefing on the leaders’ summit.

“We are all committed to free and open, inclusive, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific. Today’s summit adopted a positive vision to address contemporary issues with vaccine cooperation. Leaders agreed to strengthen, peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” said Shringla, who described the focus on the vaccines as the “most pressing”.

He informed that Japan, US and Australia will finance the vaccine initiative that India has welcomed.

“We look forward to participating in the initiative whole-heartedly. During the discussion there was wholesome appreciation of the Vaccine Maitri initiative,” said Shringla.

The vaccine expert working group, a critical and emerging technology working group, and a climate working group for technology, capacity building and climate finance have been cleared during the summit. The Foreign Secretary also said the Quad leaders have agreed to meet in person during the coming months.

“The Quad does not stand against anything, it stands for something,” said Shringla, explaining that Quad is a value-based grouping that is trying to deal with the need for vaccines, climate change and other such issues. He informed that the issue of military takeover in Myanmar came up during the discussion among the leaders.

Ending Afghan war remains daydreaming

The United States recently drafted proposals to end the conflict in Afghanistan, but its several features are being opposed by Taliban. The ‘Peace Plan’ calls for the current Afghan constitution to serve as the framework for a future constitution, elections and power sharing, all of which have been flatly rejected by the Taliban in the past.

The plan was sent on 28th February this year to Afghan government and Taliban by Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation.

The proposal includes three parts: 1) Guiding Principles for Afghanistan Future, 2) Transitional Peace Government and Political Roadmap, and 3) Permanent and Comprehensive Ceasefire. All the three negate Taliban’s interpretation of Islam.

The Islamic Emirate has been engaged in a struggle and Jihad for the past one and a half decade to establish an Islamic government in Afghanistan. They have increased political efforts to come to mutual understanding with the world in order to solve the current ongoing situation.

Taliban insist that this understanding does not mean stopping Jihad or accepting the constitution of the stooge Kabul administration. Islamic Emirate is utilizing its political wing alongside its military presence and Jihad to realize the national and Islamic aspirations of the nation and its martyrs.

At the Moscow conference in November 2018, Taliban had said that the Afghan constitution has been copied from the West and has been imposed on Afghanistan’s Muslim society under the shadow of occupation.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan believes that the Constitution must be based on principles of Islamic religion, national interests, historical achievements and social justice. The Taliban has insisted that only Islamic scholars of its liking can draft a new constitution.

The future Constitution should provide for free and fair elections for Afghanistan’s national political leadership. Ultimate authority to take decisions of paramount national importance rests with the country’s elected government officials. 

In March 2020, just one week after signing Doha Agreement, Taliban issued a religious decree calling for installation of an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which will be led by Taliban Emir Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada.

Iranian oil exports to China expected to hit 856,000 barrels per day in March 2021

Iranian crude oil exports to China are surging and expected to hit record highs in March despite the US sanctions on the country’s oil industry. Chinese imports of Iranian crude oil are expected to hit 856,000 barrels per day in March, the most in almost two years and up 129% from last month, Bloomberg reports.

Iranian shipments to the province of Shandong, which accounts for a quarter of China’s refining capacity, have surged so much this month they’re causing congestion at ports and filling up storage tanks.

The surge in China’s crude imports from Iran comes as many of other Iranian oil buyers are still waiting for the US President Joe Biden to remove sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

“The surge is related to lower costs but also, politically, to a sense that this might be an interim period between the outgoing administration and the Biden administration figuring out its position on Iran,” said Michal Meidan, Director of the China Energy Program at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Iranian oil production and exports have been both increasing over the past few months despite the US sanctions and the Iranian Oil Ministry has announced its readiness for boosting the country’s crude oil output to the pre-sanction levels in case of the US rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Back in January, the data from SVB International and two other firms indicated that Iranian oil exports were climbing in January after a boost in the fourth quarter despite US sanctions.

Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia had said earlier that the country started boosting its oil production and would be able to reach pre-sanction levels within two months.

Iranian oil won’t create any surplus in the oil market and the market will be able to accommodate the country’s maximum oil output of up to four million barrels a day, Bloomberg quoted Zamaninia as saying on the sidelines of the Iran Oil Show in Tehran in late January. 

Brewing Israel Jordan crisis

The fragility of one of Israel’s most important regional allies ‑ Jordan ‑ with whom security ties are often described as a cornerstone of regional stability – was underscored by a series of apparent tit-for-tat diplomatic price-tag attacks, most recently.

On Wednesday, Israel prevented Hashemite Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah from visiting the Temple Mount. Jordan in retaliation refused on Thursday to authorize Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flight path to the United Arab Emirates, causing the trip's cancellation.

It's the latest diplomatic skirmish in a 26-year relationship fraught with crises brought on by religion, geo-politics and violence.

Netanyahu might have glossed over the incident, pointing out that the flight path was later approved, but it's harder to brush away the persistent simmering tensions.

Here is a look at 10 Israeli-Jordanian crisis points, many of which center around the Temple Mount, as the present crisis does.

1. Prince Hussein denied access to Temple Mount

Israel might have barred Hussein from entering Israel because he wanted to bring a security retinue that was larger than agreed. But the issue at the heart of the dispute is about control of Jerusalem’s Temple Mount, the most holy site for Jews and third-holiest site for Muslims.

There were those in Israel who felt the size of the security details was a deliberate show of Jordanian power and a statement against its authority over the site, which lies within Israel’s sovereign borders.

Israel wants Jordan to accept its sovereignty over the Temple Mount.

The Hashemite Kingdom’s special custodial relationship to the Temple Mount, known to Muslims as al-Haram al-Sharif, is one of the central pillars on which rests a monarchy whose family claims to descend from the Prophet Mohammed, and which takes pride in a long history as the keeper of holy Islamic spaces.

The British in 1924 during its rule over Mandatory Palestine granted the Hashemite Kingdom a special custodial role over the al-Aqsa compound.

The 1994 Israeli-Jordanian Peace Treaty enshrined that role, but events over the last decade have made Jordan nervous about the future status of that relationship. Wednesday's border snafu was a stark reminder that its custodial relationship could be in jeopardy.

2. West Bank annexation

Israeli willingness to advance a plan to annex 30% of the West Bank over the last two years, including the Jordan Valley, created an immediate public backlash among the Jordanian public that could have threatened to undermine the Hashemite Kingdom, had Netanyahu not suspended the plan in August 2020.

Palestinians make up over 50% of the population in Jordan, so tensions in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict often translate into public pressure on the Jordanian leadership to take a hasher tone with Israel.

3. A Saudi role on the Temple Mount?

There was public speculation that in order to entice Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel, the Trump administration had considered weakening Jordan’s sole role as custodian of al-Aqsa Mosque compound by offering a role to the Saudi Arabian monarchy, the House of Saud.

It was a move that would have been a violation of the 1994 peace treaty, and which struck a particularly sensitive nerve because of the competition between the Hashemites and the House of Saud as the spiritual keepers of the Islamic faith.

A century ago, Hashemites lost control of Mecca and Medina to the House of Saud, so its only foothold on Islamic holy spaces is now its special custodial role over the al-Aqsa compound in Jerusalem.

4. Israeli drive to change Temple Mount status quo

The Temple Mount, where the biblical Temple once stood, is one of the most volatile flash points in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

It is governed by a very careful arrangement among Israel, Jordan and the Islamic Wakf (Islamic trust), which administers the site that everyone can visit but where only Muslims can worship. The ban on non-Muslim worship has been in place since the aftermath of the Six Day War.

Former US president Donald Trump’s peace plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict alluded to a change in that status quo that would allow for those of all faiths to pray there, including Jews.

There has been a growing political movement within the Israeli Right, including by ministers of Netanyahu’s own Likud Party, to allow Jewish worship at the site.

Netanyahu has continually spoken of maintaining the status quo, but persistent comments by his ministers as well as legislative drives in the Knesset has given Jordan cause for concern.

Jordan's persistent warnings about the erosion of the Temple Mount status quo has, in turn, inflamed Palestinians and helped spark violent incidents in Jerusalem and the West Bank.

5. Temple Mount metal detector crisis

A brief crisis erupted in the summer of 2017 after two Israeli policemen were shot to death by the Lion’s Gate entrance to Jerusalem’s Old City by three Israeli-Arabs, who had just visited al-Aqsa Mosque compound for the weekly Friday prayers. After the attack they ran back in the direction of the Temple Mount, where they were killed by Israeli police.

To prevent further such attacks, Israel placed metal detectors at the entrance to the Temple Mount to ensure that Muslim worshipers were not armed. The decision sparked immediate violent protests in Jerusalem and the West Bank, and created an immediate diplomatic backlash with Jordan. By July 25, Israel decided to remove the detectors and calm was restored.

6. Dispute over Jordanian detained

In 2019, a dispute broke out between the two countries when Israel detained but initially refused to release two Jordanians it suspected of security transgression, Hiba Labadi and Abdul Rahman Miri. Israel released them only after Jordan recalled its ambassador.

7. Violence at the Israeli Embassy compound in Amman

In July 2017, a violent incident occurred in an apartment within the Israel Embassy compound in Amman that left two Jordanians dead. According to Israel, a Jordanian worker violently stabbed the embassy’s deputy director of security, while moving furniture in his home. The landlord was also present. The security guard defended himself, fatally shooting 16-year-old Mohammad Jawawdeh, and also mortally wounding the landlord, Bashar Kamel Hamarneh.

8. Jordan shuts down Island of Peace

In light of Israeli-Jordanian tensions, King Abdullah in 2019 refused to extend a land lease with Israel that had been an annex to the 1994 peace treaty between the two countries. Under the terms of the deal, privately owned Jewish land near the Sea of Galilee was given to Jordan, but Israelis were allowed to farm the site and tourists could visit what had become known as the Island of Peace.

9. Island of Peace massacre

In 1997, during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s first term in office, a Jordanian soldier killed seven Israeli school girls who were on a field trip to the Island of Peace. Ahmed Daqamseh was tried and convicted in Jordan, which released him 20 years later in 2017.

10. Failed poison plot by Mossad against Khaled Mashaal in Jordan

A Mossad plot to poison former Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal in Jordan in 1997 was foiled by the country’s security forces, but only after the poison had been injected. Israel gave Jordan the antidote and freed Palestinian prisoners, including Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, in exchange for the release and return of the two Mossad agents.