Iran says won’t negotiate terms of JCPOA

Mahmoud Vaezi, Chief of Staff of Iranian President said, the nuclear agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which was signed in July 2015, is not open to new rounds of negotiations. The negotiations were held in the past that led to the deal, Vaezi told reporters after a cabinet meeting.

Vaezi also said while Iran has welcomed US President Donald Trump’s defeat, but it is not optimistic about the US administration unless it acts differently.

“President Rouhani announced that if the other JCPOA parties return to January 20, 2017, the day Trump came to power, Iran is ready to step back to the same date as well,” the presidential chief of staff said.

Vaezi, who was a high-ranking diplomat in the Rafsanjani administration, said Trump has disturbed the international order and ruined international relations, including those in the Middle East. “He has put intense pressure on the Iranian people over the past three years,” he added.

Tensions soared between Tehran and Washington when Trump unilaterally withdrew the US from the JCPOA on May 8, 2018. The US president not only exited the deal but has since targeted Iran with a series of harsh economic sanctions Trump has called the sanctions his “maximum pressure” campaign aimed at forcing Iran to renegotiate the nuclear deal. However, Tehran has rejected renegotiating the terms of the deal.

Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has insisted that “under no circumstances” would Tehran consider renegotiating the terms of the deal which was adopted as a UN Security Council Resolution.

“If we wanted to do that [renegotiate], we would have done it with President Trump four years ago,” Zarif told CBS News earlier this month.

Former European Union foreign policy Chief Catherine Ashton has said there will be resistance to further “asks” of Iran, especially if the US is not offering more in return.

“Yet the Iranians will be relieved to have survived the Trump administration’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign and undoubtedly many will hope Biden’s election represents the opening of a new chapter,” Ashton wrote in an article published by Time magazine on Monday. “But there will be little appetite in Tehran to do more, if asked.”

She confirmed that until President Trump withdrew the US from the nuclear deal, Iran kept to its side of the bargain.

Ashton added, “Finding a way to get support in Congress will be challenging when, as things stand, the Democrats may not have control of the Senate. To put a revived JCPOA on firm foundations, he needs to be able to guarantee that if Iran sticks to its part of the bargain, the US will too.”

She also called on the incoming Biden administration to work with Congress, saying, “Returning to the JCPOA with only Presidential authority to keep it in place might work for the short term, but it is not a sustainable approach.”

Israeli mantra against Iran aimed at convincing Saudi Arabia to buy more arms

Saudi Arabia is vehemently denying normalization of relationship with Israel, but Iran is being projected a threat by Jerusalem, Riyadh and Washington. Analysts term Israeli mantra against Iran aimed at convincing Saudi Arabia to buy more arms. Over the years Israel has brainwashed the monarchy by constantly hammering, “Iran is a bigger treat as compared to Israel.

Following the weapons deal signed between the UAE and the US, many analysts have raised concerns that it would bring about a new cycle of arms proliferation in a region already flooded with weapons and where major powers have no reservations about using proxy groups to fight their wars.

With Iran being portrayed as a global threat by Jerusalem and Riyadh, the United States may once again succeed in making another large scale arms sale to the kingdom to tilt the power balance even further against Tehran.

Over the years, Saudi Arabia's appetite for weapons has grown and with normalization with Israel no longer being a pipe dream, the Kingdom will likely ask for something from Washington in return.

Though Washington has been selling billions of dollars military hardware to Saudi Arabia, the US has been bound to preserve Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME) in the Middle East before selling any advanced weaponry to regional states.

But this summer, following normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, the administration of US President Donald Trump announced an arms package to UAE valued at almost US$23.4 billion, which includes F-35 stealth fighter jets, drones with anti-submarine warfare kits, stealth cruise missiles and more.

A March report published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute found that arms imports by states in the Middle East increased by 61% between 2015–19 over 2010–14. Saudi Arabia received 35% of all arms transfers to the region followed by Egypt (16%) and the UAE (9.7%).

American arms exports to the Middle East increased by 79% over the last decade and accounted for 51% of total US arms exports during 2015-19.

Last year the Institute found Middle East arms imports almost doubled in the previous five years, with Saudi Arabia becoming the world’s largest arms importer during 2014-18.

Arms sales to Saudi Arabia are nevertheless controversial, as the Kingdom has an atrocious human rights record and is leading an alliance of Arab states (including the UAE) in a war in Yemen. That war has sparked one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world and has led to dozens of countries imposing bans on arms sales to the Saudis.

But Riyadh imports most of its arms, such as fighter jets, tanks, missiles, advanced intelligence-gathering equipment and more, from the United States, and Washington has not imposed any restriction yet.

Not only are the Saudis’ arms purchases taking place against the background of war in Yemen, but Iran’s increasing hostility has led the Kingdom to procure more and more weapons.

With Israel giving Washington the green signal to sell the F-35 to the UAE, Saudi Arabia will likely demand the same. In addition to advanced precision missiles, Riyadh has also expressed interest in active protection systems for its armored vehicles, missile defense batteries, electronic interference systems and advanced radar and other detection systems. It might also want advanced armed drones like the MQ-9 Reaper drones and maritime weaponry.

Chabahar port of Iran an emerging hub of transit trade and foreign investment

Transit of goods through Southeastern Chabahar port of Iran has increased significantly in recent years due to offered incentives and the development of the port’s infrastructure. Loading and unloading figure have reached two million tons, while it was merely 200,000 tons just a few years ago. The port aimed at attracting regional markets that include India and Afghanistan as well as the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization (PMO) Deputy Head for Ports and Economic affairs said, transit of goods through Southeastern Chabahar port has increased significantly in recent years due to offered incentives and the development of the port’s infrastructure.

“A 70% discount on tariffs and lowering transit costs through Chabahar port have been so effective that Chabahar loading and unloading figure has reached two million tons, while it was merely 200,000 tons just a few years ago,” Farhad Montaser Kouhsari told IRNA. According to Kouhsari, many of the country’s neighbors are currently choosing Chabahar port as the main route to ship their imported and exported goods, as well as raw material.

He emphasized that the goal of the port is now to attract regional markets including India and Afghanistan, Iran's big trade partners, and also the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) which can use Chabahar port to transit their goods with an average of 70% discount.

Montaser Kouhsari went on to say that the costs of commodity transit through Chabahar have been lowered and at the same time the infrastructure of the port has been improved so that it could load and unload all varieties of goods in a reasonable time.

Although, Chabahar is not directly on the US list of sanctions, it has been affected by them, he said adding that the PMO has identified potential customers and various incentives are offered so that they choose Chabahar as their main base.

Chabahar is Iran’s only ocean port, which is located in the southeastern Sistan-Balouchestan Province near the Indian Ocean. The port provides unique opportunities for investment of the private sectors of Iran and other regional countries.

In line with the development of the port, five big projects were recently started. The projects include petrochemical storage reservoirs, a goods warehouse, two oil products tanks, and a decontamination terminal of trucks. Implementation of eight other big projects in the port is in progress as well.

Managing Director of Chabahar Free Zone Organization said that through implementation of development programs, this organization is preparing the ground for the attraction of investors. Abdul-Rahim Kordi said these programs are creating trust for the investors in the zone.

Located on the coast of the Gulf of Oman in Iran’s southeastern Sistan-Baluchestan Province, Chabahar is the country’s only oceanic port and given its strategic location in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) development of the port is of high significance for Iran. The government has some major projects to create multi-dimensional transportation facilities in this port.

In addition, Chabahar Free Zone has been suggested as a transit and logistic gateway for Iran's domestic market which, while reducing the cost and time of transportation it has also provided profitable economic opportunities in the development of logistics facilities. It is a multi-purpose zone with educational, industrial, tourism and transportation sectors.

Chabahar Free Zone Organization has a plan for the development of specialized industrial parks with the participation of the private sector in the fields of industry, logistics, education, healthcare, tourism, etc., which the establishment of logistics industrial park is followed in the framework of upstream programs and documents.

At present Chabahar Free Zone is considered as a transit gateway in eastern Iran and based on national plans and also the interest shown by international parties, it is noteworthy as a center for providing logistics support, transportation and transit services.

Chabahar Free Zone with the aim of facilitating trade and minimizing transportation costs and focusing on services has allocated 150 hectares of land to create a logistics industrial park. This industrial park will be assigned to the international investors and or Iran-foreign joint venture.

Considering the geographical location, this industrial park can be connected to the Chabahar railway and will be established to have full support services. Centers such as public warehouses, cold storages, special warehouses for storing liquid and bulk goods, container warehouses, required laboratories, as well as personnel service facilities have been predicted.

Chabahar-Zahedan railway is expected to become operational in the next Iranian calendar year (begins in March 2021). Keeping in view the important role that the free zones play in promoting the country’s export and employment, Iran is seriously pursuing development of its existing free zones and establishment of new zones as well.

More development measures in this field have been taking since the US re-imposition of sanctions on the Iranian economy in November 2018, as Iran is reducing its dependence on the oil income, while elevating its domestic production and non-oil exports.

Although, the sanctions have disrupted Iran’s economic activities, they could not impede the development of Iranian free zones; in fact, the development of these zones has been even accelerated. Many strides made for increasing activities in the free zones have played a significant part in boosting the country’s non-oil exports and brought prosperity in the other economic sectors.

Is sending heavy bombers to Middle East part of pressurizing Iran?

Reportedly, the United States has sent heavy bombers to the Middle East in an apparent threat to Iran, amid swirling speculation that US President Donald Trump plans to take military action against its foe before President-elect Joe Biden enters office. US Central Command said the planes were sent into the region “to deter aggression and reassure US partners and allies.”

In a highly irregular move, the B-52H planes were seen flying toward Israeli airspace on Saturday en route to the base where they will be stationed, likely in Qatar. The aircraft were spotted on civilian tracking software approaching Israel before they apparently turned off their transponders, rendering them invisible on those applications.

It was the third time in the past year and a half that B-52 bombers, which are capable of carrying nuclear weapons and other powerful munitions, have been deployed to the region in tacit threats to Iran.

In previous cases, the bombers were not seen flying through Israeli airspace. It was not immediately clear what accounted for the change in route.

The planes were ordered on short notice to fly to the Middle East nonstop from their home base in North Dakota, refueling along the way in mid-air. The bombers were accompanied on the mission by F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, as well as KC-10 and KC-135 refueling planes, said US Central Command (CENTCOM).

“The ability to quickly move forces into, out of and around the theater to seize, retain and exploit the initiative is the key to deterring potential aggression,” Lt. Gen. Greg Guillot, commander of the US military’s 9th Air Force, said in a statement.

The general said deploying bombers to the region allows their crews to better acquaint themselves with the area and work better with local units.

“These missions help bomber aircrews gain familiarity with the region’s airspace and command and control functions and allow them to integrate with the theater’s US and partner air assets, increasing the combined force’s overall readiness,” Guillot said.

The US has previously deployed B-52 bombers to the region during periods of heightened tensions. This occurred in early 2020 after the US killed top Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike in Iraq. The strategic aircraft were also sent to the region in May 2019, when Iran allegedly attacked a number of US allies in the Persian Gulf and shot down an American spy drone that flew near its airspace.

The deployment of the long-range heavy bombers came amid reports that the Trump administration — and Israel — planned to carry out military operations against Iran before Biden enters office. The US president-elect is expected to take a somewhat softer, more diplomatic approach than Trump, who pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal world powers signed with Iran and employed a so-called “maximum pressure” campaign of heavy economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

Though, analysts say this effort has created leverage for future negotiations, the tactic has not yet borne fruit in terms of halting Iran’s nuclear efforts — indeed the Islamic Republic has amassed far more nuclear material and at higher levels of enrichment under the campaign — nor has it curbed Tehran’s regional hegemony ambitions.

Biden, who was Vice President to Barrack Obama when the 2015 accord was signed, has said that he plans to return to the agreement as a basis for further negotiations with Iran.

The Trump administration is reportedly planning a bevy of wide-ranging sanctions on Iran to make it more difficult for the incoming administration to rejoin the nuclear deal.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited the region over the past week, including a stop in Israel, in which he told the Jerusalem Post that the US would consider a military strike against Iran.

“The administration has been clear on that for its entire four years. There is no reason that would change today or tomorrow,” Pompeo said.

Last Friday, Channel 13 reported that Israel and the US were planning to increase pressure on Iran with “covert operations” and economic sanctions during Trump’s final weeks in office. Jerusalem and Washington assess that Tehran will not respond militarily before the end of Trump’s term. The report did not elaborate on the nature of actions that may be taken.

Among other covert operations against Iran’s rogue nuclear program, Israel and the US were reportedly responsible for introducing the Stuxnet computer virus to sabotage parts of Iran’s nuclear enrichment process a decade ago, and for more recent sabotage attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel’s Mossad spy agency spirited out a vast trove of Iranian documentation regarding the regime’s nuclear program, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu revealed in 2018. Israel has also been linked in reports to the killings of several Iranian nuclear scientists, and last week The New York Times reported that Israeli agents killed Al-Qaeda’s No. 2 Abu Muhammad al-Masri in Tehran in August at the behest of the US.

Last Monday, it was reported that Trump asked top advisers if he had options to strike Iranian nuclear sites during his last weeks in office, but was dissuaded with warnings it could lead to a wider conflict. Trump convened the officials a day after the UN nuclear watchdog said Iran had stockpiled over 12 times more enriched uranium than the 2015 nuclear deal allows, the report said, citing four current and former US officials.

 

Joe Biden names his foreign policy team

US President-elect Joe Biden has named his top foreign policy staff on Monday. He announced, as expected, Antony Blinken would serve as secretary of state.

“We have no time to lose when it comes to our national security and foreign policy,” the president-elect said in a press release. “I need a team ready on Day One to help me reclaim America’s seat at the head of the table, rally the world to meet the biggest challenges we face, and advance our security, prosperity, and values.”

Biden also tapped former secretary of state and former senator, John Kerry, as Special Presidential Envoy for Climate. He will sit on the National Security Council as well. “This marks the first time that the NSC will include an official dedicated to climate change, reflecting the president-elect’s commitment to addressing climate change as an urgent national security issue,” the transition team said in a press release.

Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield, a veteran member of the Foreign Service, would serve as ambassador to the UN. Thomas-Greenfield served in many positions during her 35-year service, including as ambassador to Liberia. She was posted in Pakistan, Nigeria, Kenya, and at the US mission to the UN in Geneva. In 2013, she was appointed as assistant secretary for the Bureau of African Affairs, where she led the policy on sub-Saharan Africa. Thomas-Greenfield also served as Director General of the Foreign Service and Director of human resources and as Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Population, Refugees and Migration Bureau.

Ambassador Barbara Bodine is the Director of the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown, where Thomas-Greenfield was the inaugural Distinguished Resident Fellow in African Studies from 2017 to 2019. “She has a background and experience directly with multilateral institutions,” Bodine said. “After serving in Africa, as she has as assistant secretary and ambassador, she also has seen how multilateralism or multilateral collaboration is how we operate in the field, on the ground every day,” she added.

According to Bodine, the fact that her name came out at the same time as Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan and before all the other members of the administration, “signals that diplomacy is going to be a fundamental tool, not a secondary tool, and that we want to reengage credibly, collaboratively, with our partners, our friends and the rest of the world.”

She noted that Thomas-Greenfield is experienced in “conflict areas and worked on how you craft sustainable agreements to bring about peace.”

One important element for her work, Bodine noted, is that the US is going to chair the Security Council starting in March, which would require a knowledgeable person to hold the position. She added that Thomas-Greenfield doesn’t have experience with Israel or the Near East, “but she is going to represent the policy of the administration” when it comes to the region.

Biden also named Jake Sullivan as a national security adviser, according to media reports. Sullivan has gone a long way with Biden and Hillary Clinton. He advised Clinton during her 2008 primary bid and later Obama in his general-election bid. When Clinton was appointed secretary of state, Sullivan served as her deputy chief of staff and director of policy planning. When Clinton left the administration during Obama’s second term, he served as Biden’s top security aide. In 2016, he again advised Clinton during her presidential campaign. He was instrumental in shaping the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. He had defended the agreement.

“Under the deal, Iran’s nuclear program was in a box, it was frozen,” Sullivan wrote. “Under the deal, there were no rocket attacks killing Americans in Iraq... Today, Iran is attacking shipping in the Gulf and threatening the rest of the region.”

In August, he spoke at a webinar hosted by Democratic Majority of Israel, and said that Biden believes that “it is not a concession of leverage to sit down with Iran at the bargaining table.”

Sullivan said that at the end of the day, “what has been proven out over the past few years is that the United States has immense capacity, through the financial sanctions tool, to very swiftly ratchet up pressure. We did that in the Obama administration; the Trump administration did it; Iran knows that.

“He fundamentally believes that there’s a way to interplay the diplomacy side of this equation and the pressure side of this equation in a way that will help us secure the objectives that we’re trying to achieve,” Sullivan added.

According to Sullivan, diplomacy backed by pressure that creates leverage “is the kind of formula that could work again to make progress, not just on the core nuclear issues, but on some of these other challenges as well.

“One of the vice president’s commitments and all of this is to get to the table to be able to negotiate a follow-on agreement that does materially advance the security of the United States, of Israel, and our other regional partners as well, and does hold Iran to account.

“And he believes that that is the best way to actually produce a durable outcome,” he added.

Sullivan – together with two other former Obama officials, ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro and under-secretary of state Wendy Sherman – played a role in shaping the Democratic Party’s foreign-policy platform.

Following the signing of the Abraham Accords to normalize relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, Sullivan praised the move, saying the deal was a “positive accomplishment” for the president’s foreign policy.

“It’s good for the region, it’s good for Israel, it’s good for peace,” said Sullivan during an interview on the Yahoo News podcast Skullduggery.

Netanyahu trip to Saudi Arabia signifies importance of ties between two countries

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad chief Yossi Cohen met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in Neom, Saudi Arabia on Sunday, Israeli sources confirmed. Netanyahu used a private plane belonging to businessman Udi Angel, which he has used for past diplomatic trips. The plane left Israel at 5.00 pm on Sunday and returned after midnight.

The trip was kept tightly under wraps, with Netanyahu not informing Defense Minister Benny Gantz or Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi before it took place. "Gantz is doing politics while the prime minister is making peace," Netanyahu's social media adviser tweeted as reports of the visit came out.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also met with Netanyahu and MBS in Neom, a new city in northern Saudi Arabia on the Red Sea meant to show of the Kingdoms’ technological advancement.

A trip by Netanyahu to Saudi Arabia showcased the importance of Israel-Saudi Arabia ties in the last months of the Trump administration. This is important for numerous reasons, including regional alliances and security and economic ties that are flowering between Israel the Gulf States after the Abraham Accords.

Topaz Luk, Adviser to Israeli Prime Minister tweeted about Netanyahu “doing peace.” KAN correspondent Amichai Stein tweeted that the Prime Minister traveled to Saudi Arabia for a meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Pompeo tweeted about his “Constructive visit with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Neom. The United States and Saudi Arabia have come a long way since President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and King Abdul Aziz Al Saud first laid the foundation for our ties 75 years ago.”

The meeting came as Iranian-backed Houthi rebels fired ballistic missiles at an Aramco installation in Jeddah, which is far south of Neom, where the apparent meeting took place. Boris Johnson had noted during the recent G20, hosted by Saudi Arabia, that he wished he could have visited.

In this sense the center of the story is also about Saudi Arabia’s future. Riyadh has been talking more about climate change and trying to showcase the city of the future, the planned city of Neom which will cost hundreds of billions to build but will show what Saudi Arabia’s future can be.

While Riyadh has suffered diplomatic setbacks on the world stage in recent years, it has been trying to shore up support. Working with the current US administration and supporting peaceful outreach from Bahrain and the UAE to Israel have been part of that.

Saudi Arabia was the main engine behind the Arab peace initiative of 2002 and supported the concept of peace and normalization with Israel, with a Palestinian state being created. It doesn’t want to go back on that promise.

The UAE has posited that peace has helped stop Israeli annexation. Yousef al-Otaiba, the UAE ambassador to the US and Hend al-Otaiba, the spokesperson at the Foreign Ministry who recently penned an op-ed in Tablet, have stressed this point.

The Emirates and Bahrain are deeply investing in coexistence and interfaith initiatives, and Israelis are running to embrace them. Saudi Arabia, the larger of the countries and a global power in the Muslim world, has been more cautious, but has the same overall agenda as it speaks about reform and change.

However, Saudi Arabia has challenges abroad. It has been critiqued for human rights abuses in recent years, especially in the wake of breaking relations with Qatar in 2017.

Qatar and Turkey have mobilized state media and allies in Western governments, academia and media to portray Saudi Arabia as a human rights violator. The truth is more complex. Riyadh has been a monarchy for the last century and has had the same human rights issues in the 1990s as it has today.

The sudden daylight in relations that Riyadh feels from Western powers is about more than just an objective view of the situation in the kingdom, it is about some agendas being pushed by those in the West who seek a redress to decades of the West being close to Middle East Gulf countries. There are also claims that those who are more close to Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood have driven this narrative, trying to portray Riyadh more negatively than Qatar and Turkey.  

The result  has been much closer visible work between Saudi Arabia and Egypt, as well as between the UAE, Bahrain, India, Jordan, Greece and Egypt and Israel. This system of countries is juxtaposed with the Iranian alliance that includes its proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, and the Turkey-Qatar alliance that includes Hamas.

These countries work on opposite sides in Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon. Riyadh is a supporter of Sunnis in Lebanon and Iraq, for instance, but must seek to fight for their hearts and minds against Turkey. This is a global struggle that also involves Pakistan and Malaysia. And it also involves Israel.

That is why the Pompeo visit, fresh from meeting the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Saudi hosting of the G20, the Houthi missile fire and reports of Netanyahu’s trip are all part of the same story. Saudi Arabia appeared to be moving toward peace with Israel. That would open many doors. But there are questions in Riyadh about what will change next year under President-elect Joe Biden.

Biden has been critical of Saudi Arabia and also of Turkey. US commentators critique the Riyadh-led war against the Houthis in Yemen. Major think tanks, some of which are warmer toward Iran or Qatar, seek to tarnish Saudi Arabia’s image. But at the G20 meeting Riyadh and Ankara appeared to be getting along better.

Many wonder what comes next. Closer Saudi-Israeli ties could be on the list. Riyadh has been flexible about flights and more openly supportive of the Abraham Accords. There is a role that Israel could play in the Saudi economy and cities like Neom if there were normalization. It could also mean a re-alignment of other issues from Iraq to Lebanon.

Clearly the willingness to be more open about these types of meetings is part and parcel of a movement in a direction that has been paved by Abu Dhabi and its innovative approach to rapidly expanding ties. Flights begin on 26th November to Dubai, for instance. That is symbolic, as symbolic as the business jet that left Israel at five in the afternoon yesterday and appeared headed to Neom.

Likely members of Joe Biden foreign policy team

In these blogs I often talk about the US foreign policy and the damage it causes, a look at Biden's foreign policy team seems inevitable. Susan Rice of Benghazi fame, National Security Advisor under Barak Obama, is likely to become Secretary of State.

Others likely selections is Michele Flournoy, co-founder of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) as Secretary of Defense. Flournoy is a hawk and CNAS is financed by donations from who-is-who of the military industrial complex. She also co-founded WestExec Advisors, a consultancy that pulls strings to help companies to win Pentagon contracts. 

Also at WestExec Advisors was Tony Blinken who is set to become the National Security Advisor. He was National Security Advisor for then Vice President Biden, Deputy National Security Advisor for Obama and Deputy Secretary of State. 

All three, together with Joe Biden, promoted the 2003 war on Iraq and supported the wars the Obama administration launched or continued against some seven countries. They will continue to wage those wars and will probably add a few new ones.

Biden has said that he will re-instate the nuclear agreement with Iran but with 'amendments'. A realistic analysis shows that Iran is likely to reject any modification of the original deal.

The Biden administration will face the harsh reality that the amendments to the JCPOA that it needs to make its return to the agreement politically viable are unacceptable to Iran. The new US administration will more than likely find itself in a situation in which sanctions, including those on oil exports, must be maintained in an effort to pressure Iran to yield to US demands to modify the JCPOA.

There will be much pressure from the liberal hawks to finish the war they had launched against Syria by again intensifying it. Trump had ended the CIA's Jihadi supply program. The Biden team may well reintroduce such a scheme.

Susan Rice has criticized Trump's Doha deal with the Taliban. Under a Biden administration US troop levels in Afghanistan are therefore likely to increase again.

One possible change may come in the US support for the Saudi war on Yemen. The Democrats dislike Mohammad bin Salman and may try to use the Yemen issue to push him out of his Crown Prince position.

Biden and his team have supported the coup attempt in Venezuela. They only criticized it for not being done right and will probably come up with their own bloody 'solution'.

After four years of Russiagate nonsense, which Susan Rice had helped to launch, it is impossible to again 'reset' the relations with Russia. Biden could immediately agree to renew the New START treaty which limits strategic nuclear weapons but it is more likely that he will want to add, like with Iran's nuclear deal, certain 'amendments' which will be hard to negotiate. Under Biden the Ukraine may be pushed into another war against its eastern citizens. Belarus will remain on the 'regime change' target list.

Asia is the place where Biden's policies may be less confrontational than Trump's.

China would have a big sigh of relief if Biden picks Rice as his secretary of state. Beijing knows her well, as she had a hands-on role in re-molding the relationship from engagement to selective competition, which could well be the post-Trump China policies.

For the Indian audience, which is obsessive about Biden’s China policy, I would recommend Rice’s oral history where she narrates her experience as NSA on how the US and China could effectively coordinate despite their strategic rivalry and how China actually helped America battle Ebola.

Interestingly, the recording was made in April this year amidst the “Wuhan virus” pandemic in the US and Trump’s trade and tech war with China. Simply put, Rice highlighted a productive relationship with Beijing while probably sharing the more Sino-skeptic sentiment of many of America’s foreign policy experts and lawmakers.

All together the Biden/Harris regime will be a continuation of the Obama regime. Its foreign policies will have awful consequences for a lot of people on this planet.

Domestically Biden/Harris will revive all the bad feelings that led to the election of Donald Trump. The demographics of the election show no sign of a permanent majority for Democrats.

It is therefore highly probable that Trump, or a more competent and thereby more dangerous populist republican, will again win in 2024.