Following the weapons deal signed between the UAE and the US, many analysts have raised concerns that it would bring about a new cycle of arms proliferation in a region already flooded with weapons and where major powers have no reservations about using proxy groups to fight their wars.
With Iran being portrayed as a global threat by Jerusalem and Riyadh, the United States may once again succeed in making another large scale arms sale to the kingdom to tilt the power balance even further against Tehran.
Over the years, Saudi Arabia's appetite for weapons has grown and with normalization with Israel no longer being a pipe dream, the Kingdom will likely ask for something from Washington in return.
Though Washington has been selling billions of dollars military hardware to Saudi Arabia, the US has been bound to preserve Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME) in the Middle East before selling any advanced weaponry to regional states.
But this summer, following normalization of relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, the administration of US President Donald Trump announced an arms package to UAE valued at almost US$23.4 billion, which includes F-35 stealth fighter jets, drones with anti-submarine warfare kits, stealth cruise missiles and more.
A March report published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute found that arms imports by states in the Middle East increased by 61% between 2015–19 over 2010–14. Saudi Arabia received 35% of all arms transfers to the region followed by Egypt (16%) and the UAE (9.7%).
American arms exports to the Middle East increased by 79% over the last decade and accounted for 51% of total US arms exports during 2015-19.
Last year the Institute found Middle East arms imports almost doubled in the previous five years, with Saudi Arabia becoming the world’s largest arms importer during 2014-18.
Arms sales to Saudi Arabia are nevertheless controversial, as the Kingdom has an atrocious human rights record and is leading an alliance of Arab states (including the UAE) in a war in Yemen. That war has sparked one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world and has led to dozens of countries imposing bans on arms sales to the Saudis.
But Riyadh imports most of its arms, such as fighter jets, tanks, missiles, advanced intelligence-gathering equipment and more, from the United States, and Washington has not imposed any restriction yet.
Not only are the Saudis’ arms purchases taking place against the background of war in Yemen, but Iran’s increasing hostility has led the Kingdom to procure more and more weapons.
With Israel giving Washington the green signal to sell the F-35 to the UAE, Saudi Arabia will likely demand the same. In addition to advanced precision missiles, Riyadh has also expressed interest in active protection systems for its armored vehicles, missile defense batteries, electronic interference systems and advanced radar and other detection systems. It might also want advanced armed drones like the MQ-9 Reaper drones and maritime weaponry.
