Will China and Russia be the next targets if United States succeeds in imposing sanctions on Iran?

Reportedly on 14th August 2020, the 15-member UN Security Council (UNSC) unanimously rejected a resolution moved by United States to extend an arms embargo on Iran. All other JCPOA participants and most of the UNSC members argued that since the US was no longer a JCPOA participant it cannot use these provisions.

The majority of the UNSC members said they would not support the US move to snapback sanctions. One can still recall that US President, Donald Trump had signed a document reinstating sanctions against Iran after announcing its withdrawal from JCPOA on 8th May 2018. It is also on record that the US after ending its participation in the JCPOA had spared no effort to destroy the agreement.

One has to explore the validity of the US claim. It is believed that there is no legitimacy of the US claim. The imposition of sanctions and the defacto blockade of Iran is a long-standing act of the US to usher regime change, similar to those it had carried out in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya. 

The next question to be explored is; will other members of the UNSC back the US move? It is doubtful that Russia or China would back anything the US aims at hitting Iran. The repeated failures of the US in UNSC have prompted it to move unilaterally to pursue its agenda against Iran.

Yet another question arises, can the US force other JCPOA members to back its actions? Historically, the US has used a variety of tools to threaten and coerce nations around the globe to support its demands. Its current trade war with China is in many ways designed to pressurize Beijing to make concessions. It is becoming evident that both China and Russia know that if the US is successful in imposing sanction on Iran, it will also become easier to take similar actions against them.  

The last question to be answered is, why has Trump focused on the Iran issue months before the 2020 presidential election? Trump had started talking about "ending the Iran deal" even before becoming president. If one looks at US foreign policy agenda, all US presidents eventually end up adopting the US policy papers like the Brookings Institution's "Which Path to Persia?" Declaring a desire to first create, then withdraw from a deal with Iran in order to make the US look like it tried to be reasonable before moving on to more extreme tactics. 

Barack Obama and Donald Trump merely played their role in this game - Obama created the deal and Trump withdrew from it. There are reasons to believe that the US had no intention of honoring its commitments even before its representatives sat down with their Iranian counterparts. Trump may win or lose the upcoming election, maximum US pressure will continue on Iran. Other JCPOA participants will have to deal with the US aggression pragmatically.

US aircraft carrier enters Persian Gulf

Reportedly a US aircraft carrier has entered the Persian Gulf for the first time in ten months, as tensions soar between Tehran and Washington over a number of issues.

US 5th Fleet announced on Friday that USS Nimitz passed through the Strait of Hormuz with the guided-missile cruisers USS Princeton and USS Philippine Sea and guided-missile destroyer USS Sterett.

“The [Carrier Strike Group] will operate and train alongside regional and coalition partners, and provide naval aviation support to Operation Inherent Resolve,” the statement said.

Nimitz is the first carrier to operate in the Persian Gulf since USS Abraham Lincoln made the Strait of Hormuz transit last November. The last capital ship to sail in the Persian Gulf was USS Bataan in April.

“The Nimitz Strike Group has been operating in the 5th Fleet area of operations since July, and is at the peak of readiness,” strike group commander Rear Admiral Jim Kirk said.

“We will continue our support to the joint force while we operate from the (Persian) Gulf alongside our regional and coalition partners,” he added.

Tehran and Washington have been at loggerheads since Donald Trump became president. The Trump administration is set to re-impose UN sanctions against Iran under the Iran nuclear deal, despite the fact that other parties to the deal have resoundingly rejected the US measure as illegal.

It is the latest move in the “maximum pressure” campaign against Tehran, which the US pursued after it withdrew from the nuclear deal, officially called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), in May 2018.

It came after Washington failed to extend the conventional weapons embargo set to expire next month under the JCPOA.

“We expect every nation to comply with UN Security Council resolutions -- period, full stop,” US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Thursday. 

“And the United States is intent on enforcing all the UN Security Council resolutions. And come Monday, there will be a new series of UN Security Council resolutions that we enforce, and we intend to ask every country to stand behind them,” he added.

Meanwhile, Britain, France and Germany told the UN Security Council on Friday that UN sanctions relief for Iran would continue beyond September 20, when the US asserts that the sanctions should be re-imposed.

In a letter to the 15-member body, the three European parties to the JCPOA said any decision or action taken to re-impose UN sanctions “would be incapable of legal effect.”

Iran has also dismissed the US bid, with President Hassan Rouhani congratulating the Iranian people on the imminent defeat of the US to trigger the so-called snapback sanctions against Tehran.

“In advance, I congratulate the Iranian nation on the upcoming Saturday and Sunday victory [of Iran] and the US humiliating defeat,” Rouhani said during a cabinet session on Wednesday morning.

Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Pompeo was wrong to think that the UN sanctions on Iran would be re-imposed on September 20.

“Wrong again, Pompeo. Nothing new happens on 9/20. Just read Resolution 2231. Bolton—who convinced the boss to order you to ‘CEASE US participation’—did. In his words: Process is not ‘simple’, automatic or snappy, but intentionally ‘complex and lengthy’. US is not a participant,” Zarif tweeted on Thursday.

On Tuesday, Zarif wrote in a tweet that Trump is being pushed toward a war with Iran by “the habitual liar”, referring to Pompeo.

“The habitual liar bamboozled @realdonaldtrump into assassinating ISIS' enemy #1 by raising a false alarm,” Zarif said, adding, “Now he's trying to sucker him into mother of all quagmires by leaking a new false alarm, time to wake up.”

It came hours after Trump threatened Iran with a “1,000 times greater” attack in response to a fake story, which claimed Iran is planning to assassinate the US ambassador to South Africa.

US Dollar Gaining Strength

The record breaking moves in the S&P 500 have drawn investors into US assets and in turn the USD. The greenback extended its gains against all of the major currencies on Wednesday with EUR and AUD experiencing the steepest declines. 

Non-farm payrolls will be released on Friday and ADP is an important barometer of labor market health. According to the private payroll provider, US companies added 428,000 workers last month, about half the forecasted amount. When the number was initially released investors reacted by selling USD, but the rally resumed quickly as buyers returned.

Even if non-manufacturing ISM report shows service sector activity slowing and employment gains weakening, the general sentiment in the market is that the rally in stocks signal a more durable recovery that should lead to lower unemployment.  While there are a lot of problems with this theory including the possibility of a second wave as schools re-open, sheer optimism is the main reason why investors are buying US stocks and the greenback. According to Beige Book released by the Fed, economic gains were modest. Business contacts had mixed expectations for staffing in the months ahead with manufacturers expecting staff increases and the service sector anticipating the need for reductions.

The reversal in EUR gained traction with the single currency headed for a test of 1.18 versus the USD. Eurozone retail sales are scheduled for release, it could miss expectations. Signs of the Eurozone recovery losing momentum are worrying investors and with the single currency rising to heady levels, there’s a strong sense of profit taking especially after ECB Chief Economist Lane said EUR/USD rate would matters. 

Last but certainly not least, GBP followed EUR lower. As it was said at the start of the week, there’s very little on the UK calendar but the data that one has seen so far has been better with house prices following mortgage approvals higher. Still GBP is taking its cue from the market’s appetite for USD. 

Dollar bomb can burst any time

The scale of money being printed in the United States has become unprecedented; the government is spending more money than ever before. It is being said that more than 60 cents out of every dollar the government spends is printed. The US Federal Reserve is printing more money than the government is collecting in taxes.

Critics are challenging the myth that the US economy was strong before Covid-19. They say it wasn’t strong at all; it was the weakest it has ever been. It was the biggest bubble that has ever existed, that’s the reason economy imploded after Covid-19 pandemic. The air has started leaking in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the dollar is being wiped out now.

It is being said openly that everything the US government did in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis was imprudent. Its monetary as well as fiscal policies were faulty. As a consequence, the US economy never recovered from the crisis, which was caused by the Fed and the government.

The US is about to experience inflation on an unprecedented scale. The cost of living is going to skyrocket and it’s going to happen very quickly, but people are not going to see this.

More people will be blindsided by the dollar crisis than by the financial crisis. The dollar crisis will be much worse than the financial crisis. When the dollar crisis happens, printing dollars will not help because nobody wants them.

Analysts warn that there will be a sovereign debt crisis. The dollar will fall through the floor and inflation is going to ravish the US. If this happens the world will go off the dollar standard and go back to the gold standard, it has already started happening.

The entire US economy is built on the perception that the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Once the dollar become just like any another currency, it will be the end of the game for US. The fear is growing that the dollar may collapse any day. That is the reason individuals, corporate and governments are buying gold to hedge the financial risk.

The world response to UAE - Israel agreement

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has become the first Persian Gulf Arab country to reach a deal on normalizing relations with Israel. It is also the third Arab nation to reach such a deal with Israel, after Jordan and Egypt. The "Abraham Agreement", was made public by United States President Donald Trump on Thursday, securing an Israeli commitment to halt further annexation of Palestinian lands in the occupied West Bank.

However, addressing reporters later in Tel Aviv, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he agreed to "delay" the annexation as part of the deal with the UAE, but the plans remain "on the table". It is necessary to see how other nations and the various stakeholders in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict reacted to the Israel-UAE deal. The UAE's minister of state for foreign affairs, Anwar Gargash, defended the deal. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince's Mohammed bin Zayed decision to normalize ties with Israel reflected badly needed realism.

"While the peace decision remains basically a Palestinian-Israeli one, the bold initiative of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed has allowed, by banishing the specter of annexing Palestinian lands, more time for peace opportunities through the two-state solution," Gargash said in a series of tweets. "Developing normal ties in return for this is a realistic approach forwarded by the Emirates," he said. "The successful decision is to take and give. This has been achieved."

In a statement, Democratic United States presidential candidate Joe Biden said, "The UAE's offer to publicly recognize the State of Israel is a welcome, brave, and badly-needed act of statesmanship ...  A Biden-Harris Administration will seek to build on this progress, and will challenge all the nations of the region to keep pace." Biden also said, "Annexation would be a body blow to the cause of peace, which is why I oppose it now and would oppose it as president," he said.

United Kingdom Prime Minister Boris Johnson praised the agreement between Israel and the UAE. He said, "The UAE and Israel's decision to normalize relations is hugely good news."  "It was my profound hope that annexation did not go ahead in the West Bank and today's agreement to suspend those plans is a welcome step on the road to a more peaceful West of Asia."

The Persian Gulf state of Bahrain welcomed the accord between the UAE and Israel. The small island state of Bahrain is a close ally of Saudi Arabia, which has not yet commented on the agreement.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, a close ally of the UAE, welcomed the agreement. "I followed with interest and appreciation the joint statement between the United States, United Arab Emirates, and Israel to halt the Israeli annexation of Palestinian lands and taking steps to bring peace in the West of Asia," said Sisi.

Jordan said that the UAE-Israel deal could push forward stalled peace negotiations if it succeeds in prodding Israel to accept a Palestinian state on land that Israel had occupied in the 1967 Arab-Israeli War.

"If Israel dealt with it as an incentive to end occupation ... it will move the region towards a just peace," said Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi. Israel's failure to do this would only deepen the decades-long Arab-Israeli conflict and threaten the security of the region as a whole. The agreement must be followed by Israel ending any unilateral moves to annex territory in the occupied West Bank that that obstruct peace prospects and violate Palestinian rights.

In a statement issued by his spokesman, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas denounced the accord, saying the Palestinian leadership rejects and denounces the UAE, Israeli and US trilateral, surprising announcement. He also termed the deal a "betrayal of Jerusalem, Al-Aqsa, and the Palestinian cause."

Hamas rejected the US-brokered deal establishing formal ties between Israel and the UAE saying it did not serve the cause of the Palestinians. This agreement encourages the occupation by Israel to continue its denial of the rights of Palestinian people, and even to continue its crimes against our people.

Oman said it backed the normalization of ties between the neighboring United Arab Emirates and Israel and hoped the move would help achieve a lasting West of Asia peace.  A foreign ministry spokesman expressed the sultanate's "support for the UAE's decision regarding relations with Israel", according to a statement on Oman's official news agency.

US Naval Ship getting too close to China

Reportedly, for the first time since 2017, the US Navy has positioned three of its aircraft carriers on the doorstep of the disputed South China Sea, as tensions between Washington and Beijing continue to soar. The dispatch to the Western Pacific of the three vessels was likely intended to send a message to China that, despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the United States military would continue to maintain a strong presence in the region.

According to reports, two of US Navy’s ships, USS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Nimitz carrier strike groups had begun dual carrier flight operations in the Philippine Sea.

The two strike groups were scheduled to conduct air defense drills, sea surveillance, replenishments at sea, defensive air combat training, long-range strike drills, coordinated maneuvers and other exercises.

“This is a great opportunity for us to train together in a complex scenario,” said Rear Adm. Doug Verissimo, commander of Carrier Strike Group 9. “By working together in this environment, we’re improving our tactical skills and readiness in the face of an increasingly pressurized region and COVID-19.”

While it was not clear where in the Philippine Sea the US carriers were operating or where they would head to next — the Luzon Strait between Taiwan and the Philippines is the entryway into the flash point South China Sea.

Beijing claims much of the South China Sea, though the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have overlapping claims in the waters where the Chinese, US, Japanese and some Southeast Asian navies routinely operate.

The US Navy has angered Beijing by regularly conducting training and so-called freedom of navigation operations close to some of the islands China occupies in the waterway, including its man-made islets, asserting that freedom of access is crucial to international waterways.

Washington has lambasted Beijing for its moves in the waterway, including the construction of the man-made islands, some of which are home to military-grade airfields and advanced weaponry.

The US fears the outposts could be used to restrict free movement in the waterway, which includes vital sea lanes through which about $3 trillion in global trade passes each year.

Chinese state-run media lashed out last week as news emerged that the three carriers were simultaneously operating in the Pacific. In a report, the hawkish Global Times said that the deployment could put Chinese troops at risk.

“By massing these aircraft carriers, the US is attempting to demonstrate to the whole region and even the world that it remains the most powerful naval force, as they could enter the South China Sea and threaten Chinese troops on the Xisha and Nansha islands as well as vessels passing through nearby waters, so the US could carry out its hegemonic politics,” the report quoted Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie as saying.

The Xisha and Nansha Islands are the Chinese names for the Paracel and Spratly chains in the South China Sea. But the report also said that China could counter the US by holding its own naval drills in the waters at the same time, Li said.

It also highlighted the weapons at Beijing’s disposal, notably mentioning its “wide range of weapons designed to sink aircraft carriers,” including the DF-21D “carrier killer” and DF-26 “Guam killer” ballistic missiles.

The US military has in recent months grappled with the coronavirus as it battled to maintain its formidable presence in the Western Pacific, while both reassuring allies and preventing China from capitalizing on any perceived opening.

The Navy has rebounded after cases of COVID-19 were detected on some of its ships, including infections aboard all three carriers currently in the Philippine Sea, with many of the hard-hit vessels returning to action.

“Our operations demonstrate the resilience and readiness of our naval force and are a powerful message of our commitment to regional security and stability as we protect the critically important rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea for the benefit all nations,” said Rear Adm. James Kirk, commander of Carrier Strike Group 11.

US carriers have conducted dual carrier strike group operations in the Western Pacific, including in the South and East China seas and Philippine Sea for several years, according to the navy. These operations typically occur when strike groups deployed to the 7th Fleet area of operations from the US West Coast link up with the forward-deployed carrier strike group from Yokosuka.

This month’s deployment to the Pacific is the largest since 2017, when the US sent three carriers to the region amid tensions with nuclear-armed North Korea.

Have Trump and Adelson cut a deal on annexation of West Bank?

As back as May 2019, I had written a blog and its title was “Sheldon Adelson: Jackpot for Israel”. Its opening paragraph was, “A bet on Donald Trump for president may have seemed risky two years ago, but for billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson the payout has been spectacular. Adelson (85-year old) and his wife Miriam gave around US$82 million to Republicans and candidate Trump in 2016 and within two years his two major asks were met: moving the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, and withdrawing of US from Iran nuclear deal”. Today I have managed to gather some details, which are worth reading.

Sheldon Adelson, the Israel-loving, Iran-war-craving casino baron, talks to Donald Trump all the time, and for good reason, he and wife Miriam are the biggest Republican donors, poised to give as much as US$200 million this year. Now that the White House appears to be lying down for the Israeli government as it moves to annex portions of the West Bank despite a growing chorus of international condemnation, the focus should be on Adelson. He has always been a strong supporter of Israeli expansion, a man who says, “There’s no such thing as a Palestinian.”

Adelsons have gotten everything they wanted from US President: tearing up the Iran deal, moving the embassy to Jerusalem, defunding Palestinians, recognizing the Golan annexation, treating settlement expansion as legitimate, even a presidential medal of freedom for Miriam, etc. Right up to yesterday — a Trump attack on the ICC in the name of Israel. As Trump once said when a Republican rival was getting Adelson’s money, Adelson wanted a “perfect little puppet.”

Most important, the Adelsons got the Trump “peace plan,” which paves the way for annexation of the West Bank. When Trump announced his “vision,” there they were in the front row. Especially if Trump loses in November, as appears more and more likely — this is the Adelsons’ last chance to get annexation. They speak to Trump all the time.

Look at it from Trump’s point of view. He doesn’t care about peace in the Middle East or Palestinian human rights. He wants one thing, to win in November, and he needs money. Why would the Adelsons risk US$200 million on a loser? Well, because it’s not a losing cause; they get their payback now. They figure that Israeli annexation is permanent no matter what happens to Trump. “Facts on the ground” is the Israeli way of expansion. The embassy move will never be reversed by a Joe Biden. So let’s annex.

Sheldon’s Israeli newspaper Israel Hayom is promoting annexation. He believes, annexation is Israel’s right, and it poses no threat to the interests of either the United States or the Jewish state. The paper is an important rightwing voice in Israel, and the Adelsons have been big supporters of Benjamin Netanyahu. So they may also play a role in Netanyahu’s zeal to annex, when he had a lot of opportunities to dismiss that policy.

The Guardian said in February that insiders expect the Adelsons to donate between US$100 and US$200 million to Trump’s reelection hopes this year. If that seems like a big lift, look at their track record: The Adelsons gave more than US$100 million to Republican causes in 2016 and another US$123 million during the 2018 election.

McClatchy reported last year that the Adelsons were putting off their big donations in 2020 until as late as possible, so as not to excite negative publicity. Adelson is a funder and board member of the Republican Jewish Coalition that calls Trump the most pro-Israel president ever and, big coincidence, the RJC “is launching a lobbying effort on Capitol Hill to rally support for Israeli annexation.

The RJC is chaired by the ex-senator Norm Coleman. . . who is said to have strong ties to Adelson that benefit the RJC and other Super Pacs and dark money outfits where Coleman is a big player.

Coleman helps lead fundraising for a Super Pac, the Congressional Leadership Fund, and a dark money outfit, the American Action Network, that respectively back Republican House members and their policies and have received seven-figure checks from the Adelsons in recent elections.

The Adelsons have seemed to have their way on annexation so far. Annexation of large parts of the West Bank is green lighted in Trump’s deal of the century. Adelsons wanted the plan out well ahead of the election, Dan Raviv of i24 said, so that Israel would be freed to set its own border this year before November comes and possibly limits its autonomy. Adelsons may be the most important actors in this entire foreign policy discussion. Maybe the media should be telling us more about them now. . .