What joining of SCO means for Pakistan?

Pakistan’s admission in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has been termed ‘a historic occasion’ and ‘an important foreign policy milestone’.  Pakistan’s foreign office and analysts term SCO’s importance as a regional political and security bloc. They term Pakistan’s full membership ‘significant’. However, I am not carried away by the fanfare and wish to relate it to the harsh ground realities, top most being: Pakistan’s foreign policy, economic development and security threats.

I have a strong feeling that Pakistan’s foreign policy has always remained subservient to the United States in the past and Saudi Arabia during the regime of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharf. Pakistan joined the US to avert USSR assault in Afghanistan and since then has been fighting a proxy war. One does not see any prospects of US-led forces leaving Afghanistan, though the withdrawal was supposed to be completed in 2014.

Pakistan’s relationship with Iran have not been ‘cordial’ since toppling of the Shah’s regime. Bilateral trade, despite enjoying a common-boarder, has reduced and reduced to the minimum in the aftermath of impositions of sanctions by the US and followed by other countries. This brought Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project to halt. India very smartly walked away on ‘security threats’ and Pakistan didn’t accept Iran’s financial assistance to complete the pipeline. The situation has not changed even after easing/withdrawal of sanction imposed on Iran by the superpowers.

Russia, under the leadership of Putin is trying to establish cordial relationships with Pakistan by offering financial assistance, but the ruling junta still has certain apprehensions, may be due to the US pressure and Russia’s most cordial relationships with India and Iran. There is also a fear that its re-approaching may also offend China.

Since independence, Pakistan has remained under ‘war like situation’ with India and booth the countries  have fought three wars. Pakistan alleges that RAW agents intrudes from Afghanistan and Iran for undertaking cross-border terrorist attacks. The most embarrassing situation was created by the arrest of a Raw agent at the Pakistan-Iran boarder on the day of visit of Iranian President to Pakistan.

Some analysts say that now India surrounds Pakistan from three sides, India, Afghanistan and Iran. Their point is that India was an enemy, but Pakistan’s tweaked foreign policy has given India opportunities to make the home in the hearts of Afghans and Iranian. While Pakistan is still fighting a proxy war in Afghanistan and refusing to open up trade with Iran, India is doing extensive development work in Afghanistan and Iran, its involvement in the construction of Iranian port Chabahar, even when sanctioned were imposed on Iran is not a secret.

As regards economic development in Pakistan, it remains a dream. Doubts are being created by groups having vested interest about CPEC. Some of the opponents even go to the extent of calling it another ‘East India Company’. It may be suspected that these groups are supported by India, which is opposing CPEC because some of its sections pass through ‘Pakistan held Kashmir’. There have been attacks on Chinese Engineers working in Pakistan. India’s sole objective remains weakening Pakistan’s economy in lieu of any military assault.

Pakistan’s economy has flourished on grants, aid and lending by the multilateral financial institutions, rather than any home grown-plan, its textile industry has flourished during the textile quota regime. Over the last three decades the country continues to suffer from the worst energy crisis, not because of limited power generation capacity, but rampant pilferage and none payment of bills by those enjoying support of linguistic, religious and political groups.

Since the attack on Afghanistan by USSR, the US terms Pakistan ‘front-line partner in the war against terror’, but the country has suffered the most because of bomb blasts, suicide attacks and targeted killing of people. There is a growing perception that all the militants enjoy financial support and arms supplies from outside, by the groups adamant at spreading sectarian conflict and anarchy.

Economic development of Pakistan is not dependent on foreign assistance, but developing a ‘united nation’ strong enough to avert all sorts of aggression at its own, i.e. linguistic, cultural, sectarian. This demands, formation of an independent foreign policy, establishing cordial relationship with immediate neighbors and creation of interfaith harmony. Unless all these priorities are placed in order and collective efforts are made, Pakistan will not be able to gain any benefit from being part of any association, group or bloc.

SOC, China, Russia, Pakistan, India, Iran, Afghanistan,

Ascertaining identity of those attacking Iran

On Wednesday, 7th June 2017 gunmen and suicide bombers attacked Iran's parliament and the shrine of its revolutionary leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Reportedly, at least 12 people were killed and dozens wounded. All the four attackers were also killed. According to media reports IS group has claimed the responsibility, marking it the first ever assault in Iran. The militants are at war with Iranian-backed forces in Syria and Iraq.

According to another media report IS group's Aamaq news agency has released a 24-second video purportedly shot inside the parliament building during the siege. The video, circulated online, shows a gunman and a bloody, lifeless body of a man lying on the ground next to a desk. A voice on the video says in Arabic: "Do you think we will leave? We will remain." This was a slogan used by IS spokesman Abu Mohammad al-Adnani, who was killed in Syria last year.

I have repeatedly written in my blogs that western media mostly comprises of ‘embedded journalists’ or those who tow the lines of media houses owned and operated by Zionists. I live in Pakistan that is often termed ‘front line partner in the war against terror’, which has also been the worst victim of terrorism. In Pakistan various banned outfits have claimed responsibility of hundreds of suicide attacks, the most notorious  of these outfits are TTP and Jundallah.

Today I would like to refer to one of my blogs  written as back as on 17th December 2012. Its title was 'Tattoos on the body of attackers on Peshawar Airport'http://shkazmipk.blogspot.com/2012/12/tattoos-on-body-of-attackers-on.html. I had questioned the presence of tattoos on the bodies of the attackers who called themselves Muslims.

It is interesting to note that IS often claims attacks around the world, even when links to the group cannot be confirmed and appear dubious. I have all the reasons to suspect that those involved in attacks in Iran may belong to any country or religion, but were trained by Mossad, Israeli spy agency. In the past  Mossad has killed Iranian nuclear scientists in Iran and UAE. It is often alleged that the Israeli spy agency has also been godfathering Jundallah, operating in Pakistan as well as Iran.

Shunning Qatar is beginning of another proxy war

About two days back I had posted a link to one of my blogs “Arabs Falling in Deadly US Trap” posted as back as in July 2012. One of my critics asked the reason for my obsession for proxy wars. In my various blogs I have stated that after the World War II, superpowers have learn a lesson “fight a war away from their homelands”.

Termination of diplomatic relationship with Qatar by various Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia is aimed at achieving two objectives, dragging Iran into another proxy war and stopping energy supplies from Qatar to hike oil prices through geopolitical maneuvering. Let everyone remember that the biggest beneficiery of yet another proxy war will be the United States. If anyone doubts my words he/she should peep into the history of Iraq’s attack on Iran and Kuwait.

Another conspiracy theory is that the reason for making an attempt to isolate Qatar is the ongoing transmission of Al Jazeera TV, which is critical of the atrocities of Arab monarchs, particularly in Yemen and Bahrain.

The latest acquisition that Qatar is supporting the extremist groups does not look very different from the allegation of the presence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and OBL residing in Afghanistan. The allegation against Qatar also appears a hoax call. However, one just can’t rule out bloodshed in Qatar like it was done in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Pakistan Stock Market Takes a Dip of Nearly 8 Percent

With announcement of FY18 Deferal Budget and Pakistan’s formal inclusion in the MSCI EM Index, the week ended 2nd June 2017 remained eventful. Contrary to the expectations, fiscal prudence superseded election year populist measures in the Budget, while unexpected tax restructuring for the stock market induced further volatility (15% CGT regardless of the holding period, enhancement of tax on dividend to 15%). On the other hand, the transition to MSCI EM Index triggered a sell‐off on the likely rebalancing of the portfolios. The benchmark of Pakistan Stock Exchange index lost 4082 points or 7.75%WoW to close the week at 48,555. The average daily volumes declined to around 295 million shares, but the average traded value soared to its decade high of over US$240 million. Other key news flows during the week included: 1) Hussain Nawaz appearing before the JIT, 2) CPI based inflation in May’17 rising to over 5%, at 30‐month high, 3) GoP reducing the MOGAS/HSD prices, 4) LHC dismissed petitions filed by commercial importers against the anti‐dumping duty on flat steel products, 5) MoF reportedly agreed to provide Rs45 billion to IPPs and OMCs in lieu of circular debt. MSCI Pakistan EM index large and mid‐cap constituents were major losers during the week, where: HBL, LUCK, UBL, MCB and OGDC.With Pakistan formally part of MSCI EM Index, analysts expect short‐term volatility to continue where the market is likely to take guidance from foreign activity. That said, any development with regards to the revised margin financing product along with Panama‐gate’s JIT proceedings are likely to drive sentiments accordingly.

As eventful as it was, the market gained 2.6%MoM during May'17 in anticipation of a populist budget while gearing up for Pakistan's formal inclusion in the MSCI EM index. However, gains remained limited (the market lost 4% since the presentation of Budget FY18) where, contrary to expectations, fiscal prudence superseded election year populist measures in

Budget FY18. Also, an unexpected tax restructuring for the stock market induced further volatility. On the other hand, the transition to MSCI EM Index triggered a sell‐off with the benchmark index losing 1.7%, just a day before formal inclusion of Pakistan in MSCI EM. In this regard, profit taking was evident in MSCI EM stocks with traded value recorded at US$508.7 million, touching its decade high. Going forward, foreign activity is likely to guide the market sentiments in the short term with the market seeing increased volatility until complete re‐balancing of portfolios. However, analysts expect key themes like: 1) materialization of CPEC projects, 2) healthy corporate earnings growth, 3) interest rate reversal and 4) the pressures on the PkR to take center stage until general elections next year.

Despite widening trade deficit, rising by nearly 37% in 10MFY, focus on export‐oriented sectors remained missing in the recently announced FY18 budget. While relief measures under the export package (zero‐rating regime, discounted EFF & LTTF and duty‐free machinery import) were extended and new protectionist measures introduced (GST @10% on import of fabric and 5% RD on import of filament yarn), no solid initiatives were undertaken with regards to energy subsidy (to reduce power cost) and refund claims except allowing of payment of refunds. Moreover, the 1% increase in GST on retail sales to 6% further add to the woes of industry players having a  higher proportion in the local sales mix should they choose not to pass on the cost increment to consumers.

Britain must keep Tony Blair out of Brexit discussion

Having roots in Pakistan, once upon a time a British Colony and a member of Common Wealth for a long time, I believed that Britain was the oldest democracy. However, this belief has been shattered after hearing that its ex-prime minister Tony Blair would steer the country out of the turmoil. In my opinion, he should have been punished for committing war crimes, the worst being his support for Iraq invasion on the premise of having weapons of mass destruction. Ideally, he should be hiding his face because tendering an apology could not save him from the ultimate fate.

In the recent past, I was engrossed with other topics that included Pakistan’s prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, facing disqualification, US president not behaving in the desired manner and his visit to Saudi Arabia, elections in Iran and ongoing war in my country’s neighborhood, Afghanistan. I confess that I missed statements of Tony Blair saying that he plans to become more involved in the debate surrounding Britain’s departure from the European Union because of the harm it would cause the country.

The 63-year-old, who was speaking on the 20th anniversary of his landslide win over John Major in the general election of 1997, told the Daily Mirror, “I am going to be taking an active part in trying to shape the policy debate and that means getting out into the country and reconnecting. This Brexit thing has given me a direct motivation to get more involved in politics. You need to get your hands dirty, and I will.” I believe Britishers should not pay any heed to his uttering.

I regret that Britisher, who are the custodian of democracy and good behavior gave him a chance to resurface, whereas he should have been completely dumped for bringing the worst disgrace to them. I will even ask a question, are the politicians from treasury and opposition benches incapable of bringing the country out of the turmoil?

My question to Tony Blair, if he is such an ardent supporter of Britain remaining in the European Union (EU), why did he keep his country out of the common currency, euro? I understand that somewhere at the back of his mind was that if Britain joins euro; it would become subservient to Germany and France.

At this juncture, both Germany and France are adamant at punishing Britain out of the EU or be ready to pay a huge cost to stay its member. If Tony Blair committed a mistake of becoming the spokesman of war monger George Bush and now living in isolation, Britain also faces isolation for its decision to quit the community. Even if the new parliament wishes to reverse the process, it would only be at the stringent conditions of the EU.