Sit in against Shia genocide in Karachi

Numaish Chorangi at Karachi in Pakistan seems to have become Tehrir Square.  It is one of the unique displays of commitment and solidarity that a sit in against killing of Shia in Karachi now surpass 34 hours. The sit in, which began after Friday prayers, continues as the protesters refused to disperse, calling it a sit in for an indefinite period.

Strangely mainstream media is not giving enough coverage of the event but regular updates and photographs are being posted at social media. The point most emphasized is gathering of women and children in such a large number despite chilling nights.

One of the posts says, “Amazing sit in protest going on at Numaish Chorangi against Shia Genocide since the last 32 hours or so, was there for a good 3, 4 hours, wish people from all communities can join in to support a call against injustice concerning humanity and our country, even for just 10 minutes”.

On Saturday Karachi gave a deserted look. Fear and panic that began spreading in the city on Friday evening failed to deter the demonstrators. Young men riding motorcycles forced closure of shops and markets. Life in Karachi remained at a standstill as public transport remained off the roads.

The participants are present at Numaish Chorangi. It looks Incredible because hardly so many women come out to protest. According to some eyewitnesses the number of demonstrators exceeds 50,000. These people are demanding an operation against the banned outfits killing Shia.

Shias are being targeted regularly by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan; the latest attack was at Ashura procession in D I Khan. In the prevailing conditions gathering of such a large number of people demonstrates strength of their faith.

Geopolitics fueling Pakistan's energy crisis

A closer look at post fall of Dacca era indicates that the strategic plans followed by the successive governments in Pakistan were dictated from outside. From super powers to multilateral lenders and from locals seeking power to policy planners followed strategic plans that were not in the larger interest of the country.

One of the latest evidences is that President Asif Ali Zardari skipped his visit to Tehran and went to UK to meet Malala Yousufzai. He was scheduled to stopover in Tehran to sign some important agreements pertaining to Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. There is a consensus in Pakistan that the pipeline has not become reality only because of opposition of United States.

Examining the power sector alone supports this perception. Everyone knows that Pakistan enjoys enormous potential to produce 40,000MW electricity from hydel plants. In the earlier days country succeeded in constructing three dams/hydel plants i.e. Warsak, Mangla and Tarbella. The plan was to complete one dam in a decade. Mangla was completed in mid sixties and Tarbella in mid seventies but then no more funds were made available for contraction any mega size das after Kalabagh Dam project ran into controversy.

Over the years also came a paradigm shift in the policies of multilateral donors. They decided not to lend more funds to WAPDA and encouraged contraction of fossil oil based thermal power plants by the private sector. Pakistan faces double edged sword as more than 75% of total power generation capacity is oil based and oil prices are hovering around US$100/barrel. It the recent past oil price also touched record level of US$147/barrell.

Pakistan is blessed with natural gas but turmoil in Balochistan affects drilling of new wells in the province. Fortunately reasonably large oil/gas reserves have been discovered in Sindh but excessive reliance on gas has led to present gas crisis. Gas can’t be produced from some of the mega fields discovered lately due to ongoing litigation.

Little has been the progress on exploitation of Thar coal, capable of producing 50,000MW electricity over the next half a century. Over the years enough funds were not allocated for the construction of required infrastructure and lately Chinese working in the area were forced to stop their work.

The latest controversy about the quality of Thar coal and process of mainlining seems to be driven by groups having vested interest. While things were moving smooth for establishing mine-mouth power plant, entered a group insisting of coal gasification process. Though, the available data suggests coal gasification technology can’t be used for commercial purposes, this group is insisting on release of millions of dollars for the deployment of economically unviable technology.

Some of the groups are also suggesting exploitation of other sources of energy i.e. introduction of E-10 and granting sugar mills IPP (independent power plant) status. The entire required infrastructure is present in the country but oil lobby is opposing this, it knows very well that going for E-10 and granting sugar mills IPP status will hurt its interest.

Some experts also say that much of the hype about shortage of gas is aimed at creating a justification for the import of LNG and creation of LNG handling infrastructure. Earlier Rental Power Plants (RPPs) melodrama was created that fizzled out due to credible evidence of massive corruption.

US pressurize Zardari to skip Iran visit

According to Financial Times, the visit of Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari to Tehran to seal a US$1.5 billion gas pipeline deal was unexpectedly cancelled due to extreme pressure from the United States. The news has been received in Pakistan with extreme disgust and some of the quarters term it an attack on country’s sovereignty.

Pakistanis are fully aware that Iran has offered hundreds of millions of dollars to finance the long-delayed gas pipeline and Iranian stance has offended United States. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's president visited Islamabad last month to offer the financing. It was said to be just the first installment. There were also clear indications that if Pakistan show determination and seriously go ahead with this project it could get more money.

Reportedly President Zardari skipped his visit to Iran on some flimsy excuse. While President House official sources said the Iran trip was not on the itinerary but it looked all certain that he would stop over in Tehran on way to UK, France and Turkey as he was expected to sign some agreement pertaining to Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Earlier on Tuesday, Presidential Spokesman Farhatuallah Babar had confirmed to IRNA that President Zardari will visit Iran on December 7 for talks on bilateral and regional issues.

Many Pakistanis wanted President Zardari to go to Iran to sign this crucially important agreement. They are losing patience due to inordinate delay in implementation of the project primarily because of stiff US opposition. The agreement was to be inked between Tehran and Islamabad during the November visit to Pakistan by Iranian President Ahmadinejad but was differed due to text of contract not being ready.

It sounded like a big joke that the President met Malala Yousafzai, a 14 year old peace activist, who is being treated at Birmingham’s Queen Elizabeth Hospital in UK rather than stopping over in Iran. Critics termed the visit an unprecedented gesture by the president because he did not have any diplomatic engagements in the UK other than meeting Malala.

Pakistan is keen in going ahead with the project. Dr. Asim Hussain, Advisor to Prime Minister on Petroleum and Natural Resources has recently visited Tehran to finalize text. He met several Iranian officials, including President Ahmadinejad. A delegation of Iranian oil industry experts also visited Islamabad early in November to discuss the agreement on the payment of a $250mln loan to Pakistan to fund the project.

In addition to the investment, Iran is also due to build the Pakistani part of the multi-billion-dollar pipeline. A special team has been set up in the Iranian oil ministry to specify the method of investment and credit line for the pipeline on Pakistani soil.

United States Fueling Iran Arab Animosity

There exists an overwhelming perception that Gulf States like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are deeply worried about Iran and ask the United States to take care of the problem.  The usual causes of conflict are cited to be Sunni-Shiite divide, Iranian subversion, its support for Hezbollah, and omnipresent fear about Iran's nuclear energy program.  United States has been successful in creating these fears and also doing well in projecting Iran as a growing monster that can eat Arab monarchs.

Reading an article of Stephen M. Walt printed in Foreign Policy reveals that oil producing Arab countries are keen in keeping oil prices high to finance budgets in a period where heightened social spending and other measures are being used to insulate these regimes from the impact of the Arab Spring. According to the IMF, these states need crude prices to remain above U$80 a barrel in order to keep their fiscal house in order. 

The Article also discusses the potential interest of Saudi Arabia that wants to keep Iran in the doghouse, so that Iran can't attract foreign companies to refurbish and expand its oil and gas fields and also make it more difficult for Iran to market its petroleum in the global markets. It is but obvious that if UN and other sanctions are lifted and energy companies start operating freely in Iran, its oil and gas production would boom, overall supplies would increase, and the global price would drop.

If this happens Iran can emerge a more formidable power in the Gulf region but lower oil and gas prices would make it much harder for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states to stave off demands for political reform through social spending. Saudi Arabia could cut production to try to keep prices up, but that would still mean lower overall revenues and a budget shortfall.

When one hears how worried the Gulf states are about Iran, and how they support the efforts to keep tightening the screws, remember that it's not just about geopolitics or historical divide between Sunnis and Shiites or between Arabs and Persians. It is only to keep inflow of petro dollars high but why should United States be conniving with Arabs?

However, Stephen forgot to mention one point.  By keeping Iranian threat high United States is able to sell more arms to Arab countries. It is on record that United States is the biggest arms seller in the world and Arab monarchies are the major buyers, Saudi Arab being the biggest buyer.

Diverting attention of Arabs towards Iran also helps in saving Israel. At a recently held conference some of the Arab countries termed Iran a threat bigger than Israel. In the latest bid of the United State is fully supported by Arabs to topple government in Syria, and earlier in Libya. Over the years Arabs have been giving charity to Palestinians living in refugees’ camps but not supporting in the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state.

Absurdity and Terrorism

One often feels that most of the statements regarding terrorists, their game plan and involvement of third hand are nothing but acceptance of the fact that perpetrators are smatters than people working for law enforcing agencies. One also gets the feeling that mantra of involvement of ‘third hand’ is only to close the file rather than taking the pain to investigate, round up the criminals and giving them exemplary punishment. One of the conspiracy theory is that ‘militants, to be precise perpetrators, are embedded in law enforcing agencies. If that is the reality, one does not know who can establish government’s writ.

To begin with one point has to be made very clear that putting the blame on external forces is accepting failure of the law enforcing agencies. If perpetrators can just walk into Pakistan from any neighboring country and manage to reach as far as Karachi, it is a big question mark on the performance of more than three dozens of intelligence agencies operating in Pakistan. This also highlights the inherent weakness of the surveillance system. While one could find police collecting ‘Bhatta’ on main arteries, roads and even streets, one completely fails to understand why the criminals can’t be intercepted? May be the police is keener in collecting the booty rather than checking the movement of criminals.

Same goes for the arms, which is pouring into Karachi in tons. It is said that that arms are made in United States, dissolved USSR and India as well as from smaller arms factories operating in the tribal areas. The influx of most lethal and modern arms into Karachi also raises question about the performance of law enforcing agencies. Politicians often demand de-weaponization of Karachi but hardly bother to find out how the weapons reach Karachi. One of the suspicions is that trucks and trawlers carrying goods for northern parts of the country bring the arms to Karachi.

Another conspiracy theory is that vehicles taking Nato supplies to Afghanistan carry the arms on their return journey. Some of the cynics even to the extent of saying that a large percentage of arms, meant for distribution among various groups operating in Afghanistan never leave Pakistan. There are ‘rent a weapon’ operators located throughout the country and carrying arms while crossing border or moving from one city to another is not necessary. These vendors are located in the heart of most thickly populated areas having concentration of different ethnic groups. It is also alleged that residents of the areas are also used as ‘human shields’ and often personnel of law enforcing agencies are hesitant in entering these areas.

A closer watch on the recent happenings and working of rebel groups has established beyond doubt that their sponsors provide them funds as well as arms and also give them training. If rebel groups in Syria have anti aircraft guns and missiles, possession of similar equipment by perpetrators in Pakistan just can’t be rules out.

It is suspected that various militants groups operating in Pakistan get support from external sources. It may not be wrong to say that a proxy war is being fought in Pakistan. The missions include from establishing supremacy of Shariah laws to liberation of oppressed groups and from creation of independent Pakhtunistan to Greater Balochistan. One of the outfits ‘Jundullah’ wears different caps. In Pakistan it is said to be working for the liberation of Balochs and in Iran it is fighting against Shias, who have usurped rights of Sunnis.  

Courtesy: The Financial Daily

Israel must be brought back to its original size

The latest announcement of Israel to build 3000 new settlement homes on occupied land is a slap on the face of international community that has just recognized Palestine State, accepting the philosophy of two sovereign states, Israel and Palestine. The latest announcement once again proves that Israel is a usurper and also responsible for any realization by Palestinians.

If the international community, particularly United States wants Palestinians to behave diligently,  they must asked Israel to stop construction of settlements of occupied land also bring Israel back to its original boundaries demarcated at the time of creation of a state for the Jews.

Israel's moves serves as a harsh reminder to Palestinians that while they now have a state on paper, most of it remains very much under Israeli control. "This is a doomsday scenario," Daniel Seidemann of Ir Amim, a group that promotes coexistence in Jerusalem, said of the building plans.

Israel's decision also embarrasses the United States, which was among just nine countries in the 193-member General Assembly to vote against accepting Palestine as a non-member observer state. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland criticized the Israeli announcement. "These actions are counterproductive and make it harder to resume direct negotiations or achieve a two-state solution," she said.

Among the projects is an expansion of Maaleh Adumim, known as E-1. Successive US administrations have pressured Israel not to build in E-1 because it would effectively cut off east Jerusalem from the West Bank, and split the northern part of the territory from the southern part. "E-1 will be the death of the two-state solution," said Seidemann, referring to the establishment of a state of Palestine alongside Israel.

Tzipi Livni, Israel's former foreign minister and chief negotiator with the Palestinians warned that "The decision to build thousands of housing units as punishment to the Palestinians only punishes Israel ... (and) only isolates Israel further."

Following Israel's decision to accelerate settlement building, however, Abbas aide Saeb Erekat said the Palestinian leadership was studying its options. He would not elaborate. Erekat accused Netanyahu of "defying the whole international community and insisting on destroying the two-state solution."

The UN endorsed a Palestinian state in territories Israel captured in 1967. Abbas has said he is ready to negotiate the final borders with Israel, provided Netanyahu drops his refusal to use the 1967 lines as a starting point. Abbas asserted Friday that a Palestinian demand for a settlement freeze ahead of negotiations still stands.

On the Israeli side, compromise on settlements seemed unlikely. Netanyahu is seeking re-election two months from now at the helm of a Likud party turned more hawkish since primaries earlier this week and in an electoral alliance with an ultra-nationalist pro-settler party.

Shia mourners attacked again in D I Khan

Ashura procession in D I. Khan, a city close to Afghan border faced blast today, causing six deaths and serious injuries to fifty persons. 

Mourners were attacked yesterday in which nine persons were killed. 

The blast took place despite claims of foolproof security system.

 It is being reported that improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have been used in both the incidents.

 While people have faith in the security forces, there are growing suspicions that perpetrators have been supplied state of the art devices by foreign forces.

The objective is to prove that the government is helpless before perpetrators.