For Trump, the objectives are straightforward: 1) secure a
massive US$500 billion Saudi investment, 2) persuade the Kingdom to join the
Abraham Accords, and 3) lock in lucrative arms deals. His administration is
presenting the visit as an opportunity to “broaden ties,” spanning commerce,
technology, and even nuclear cooperation.
It is MBS’s first US trip since Jamal Khashoggi’s killing in 2018 — an event that caused global outrage but has now been diplomatically “moved past” in Washington’s narrative. Trump is expected to again sidestep human rights concerns, focusing instead on transactional gains.
Saudi investment on the scale of half a trillion dollars carries inherent risks for the Kingdom. Such deep financial exposure would place Riyadh firmly within Washington’s strategic orbit, making it vulnerable to political pressure from the US and, by extension, from Israel. The Kingdom knows that once its capital becomes entrenched in the American economy, it loses critical room for maneuver in foreign policy.The second US priority — coaxing Riyadh into the Abraham
Accords — remains far more complex. Saudi Arabia has outlined clear conditions
for recognizing Israel, yet Trump’s approach relies more on pressuring Riyadh
than moderating Israeli policies. MBS is acutely aware of the domestic,
religious, and geopolitical sensitivities tied to formal ties with Israel.
Entering the Accords without significant concessions from Tel Aviv would carry
unpredictable consequences at home and across the Muslim world.
Washington’s third objective, securing large defence deals,
is no longer guaranteed. The longstanding US narrative portraying Iran as the
Kingdom’s chief threat justified decades of American arms sales. But with
Riyadh and Tehran now engaged in détente — shifting from “foes” to “friends” —
the rationale for massive weapons purchases has eroded. The Kingdom today sees
no imminent adversary that requires US arsenals.
The old oil-for-security arrangement has weakened. Saudi
Arabia now seeks more — a formal defence pact ratified by Congress, nuclear
cooperation, and access to advanced AI technologies central to its Vision 2030
aspirations. Washington may instead offer a limited executive-order commitment,
far from the ironclad guarantee Riyadh desires.
MBS arrives United States with ambition but also clarity.
Trump may push hard, but the Kingdom is no longer willing to operate under
outdated assumptions. The Washington–Riyadh dialogue is indeed entering a new
phase — one defined not by dependence, but by negotiation, recalibration, and a
shifting balance of power.
