Two-state solution for lasting peace in Middle East

Israel hasn’t expressed interest in following the advice of world leaders that it revives the two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians.

In the past wars against Hamas, Israel moved quickly to invade Gaza, seeking to degrade the militant group’s ability to fire rockets into the country, now Tel Aviv’s stated aim is Hamas’s destruction.

In the three weeks since the group killed 1,400 people in Israel, it has staged several limited ground incursions into Gaza, the latest on Friday night.

The stakes are high for Israel, from the lives of some 200 hostages to worries about triggering a regional war.

While US President Joe Biden has expressed strong support for Israel’s professed goals, he also advised delay of any full-scale invasion as he seeks to win release of the hostages and insure the flow of much-needed humanitarian assistance to Palestinians.

The Pentagon is also scrambling to put defensive measures in place for US assets that may come under attack (Iran has warned of such escalation, and skirmishes between the two are increasing).

At the same time, global outrage has been rising at the massive number of Palestinian casualties inflicted by Israel, with more than 7,000 dead—including thousands of children.

As the Israel Defense Forces lay waste to large swathes of the Gaza Strip, Biden has urged Israel to consider America’s mistakes after the 9/11 attacks–and to have a clear plan for the aftermath.

“Anything that could lower risks and collateral damage, while still attaining the goal of crippling Hamas, is worth consideration.” Marc Champion writes in Bloomberg Opinion.

Arab states support two-state solution for lasting peace

The participating nations, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Mauritania, and the United Comoros Republic, collectively condemned and rejected the targeting of civilians, all acts of violence and terrorism against them, and any violations or transgressions of international law, including international humanitarian law, by any party. This condemnation extends to the targeting of civilian infrastructure.

They stressed the importance of the international community, especially the Security Council, assuming its responsibilities to seek peace in the Middle East. This includes expeditious, genuine, and collective efforts to resolve the conflict and implement a two-state solution based on relevant UN resolutions, ensuring the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state with contiguous territory, viable for life, along the lines of pre-June 4, 1967, borders with its capital in East Jerusalem.

The statement denounced forced individual or collective displacement and policies of collective punishment. It strongly opposed any attempts to settle the Palestinian issue at the expense of the Palestinian people and the peoples of the region. The forced displacement of the Palestinian people is deemed a grave violation of international humanitarian law and a war crime.

The signatories underscored the need to fully commit to ensuring the complete respect for the Geneva Conventions of 1949, particularly concerning the responsibilities of the occupying force. They also stressed the importance of the immediate release of hostages and civilian detainees, ensuring safe, dignified, and humane treatment for them in accordance with the international law. The role of the International Committee of the Red Cross in this regard is highlighted.

The statement emphasized that the right to self-defense, as outlined in the UN Charter, does not justify flagrant violations of international law and humanitarian law, or the deliberate neglect of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people, including the right to self-determination and an end to the decades-long occupation.

The signatories called on the UN Security Council to compel parties to the conflict to an immediate and sustainable ceasefire. They stressed that hesitation in characterizing blatant violations of international humanitarian law serves as a green light for the continuation of such practices and complicity in their commission.

Furthermore, the statement urged action to ensure and facilitate rapid and sustainable access for humanitarian aid to Gaza without obstacles, in accordance with relevant humanitarian principles. It called for the mobilization of additional resources in collaboration with the UN and its affiliated organizations, especially UNRWA.

Expressing deep concern over the possibility of the current confrontations expanding and the conflict spreading to other areas in the Middle East, the signatories appealed to all parties to exercise maximum restraint. They underscored that the expansion of this conflict would have severe consequences on the peoples of the region and international peace and security.

The statement also expressed profound concern about the escalating violence in the West Bank and called on the international community to support and enhance the Palestinian Authority. Financial assistance to the Palestinian people, including through Palestinian institutions, is deemed to be of utmost importance.

The signatories affirmed that the absence of a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict led to the recurrence of violence and suffering for both the Palestinian and Israeli peoples and the peoples of the region.

Israel preparing for ground invasion of Gaza, says Netanyahu

Israel is preparing a ground invasion of Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised statement on Wednesday, but he declined to provide any details on the timing or other information about the operation.

He said the decision on when forces would go into the Palestinian enclave, controlled by the Islamist movement Hamas, would be taken by the government's special war cabinet, which includes the leader of one of the centrist opposition parties.

"We have already killed thousands of terrorists and this is only the beginning," Netanyahu said.

"Simultaneously, we are preparing for a ground invasion. I will not elaborate on when, how or how many. I will also not elaborate on the various calculations we are making, which the public is mostly unaware of and that is how things should be."

Israel has carried out days of intense bombardment of the densely populated Gaza Strip following the October 07 Hamas attack on Israeli communities that killed some 1,400 people. More than 6,500 Palestinians have been killed in the bombardments, according to Gaza's health ministry.

Netanyahu, who has so far not taken responsibility for the security failures that led to the Hamas attack, said all involved would be called to account.

"The scandal will be fully investigated," he said. "Everyone will have to give answers, me too. But all this will happen only after the war."

Earlier, citing US and Israeli officials, the Wall Street Journal reported that Israel had agreed to delay the invasion of Gaza for now, so the United States could rush missile defences to the region.

Reuters reported on Monday that Washington advised Israel to hold off on a ground assault and is keeping Qatar - a broker with the Palestinian militants - apprised of those talks as its tries to free more hostages and prepare for a possible wider regional war.

Saudi Crown Prince stresses importance of ensuring Palestinian rights

According to Saudi Gazette, Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman engaged in a phone conversation with US President Joe Biden, highlighting the imperative for de-escalation in Gaza and a commitment to international humanitarian law in light of the current regional tensions.

The Crown Prince, expressing deep concern over the situation, underscored the necessity to halt the current escalation, preventing any further deterioration that could adversely affect the security and stability of the entire region.

He emphasized the importance of upholding the principles of international law, particularly in protecting civilians and vital infrastructure.

President Biden, in turn, extended his appreciation to Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman for his efforts in reducing and containing escalation in the region.

Furthermore, Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman affirmed Saudi Arabia's rejection of all forms of targeting civilians and infrastructure, emphasizing the need for a swift resolution to the crisis.

He stressed the urgency of restoring peace and ensuring the Palestinian people's legitimate rights.

The diplomatic conversation also touched upon the vital need to lift the blockade on Gaza, a move seen as essential for addressing the humanitarian crisis in the region

The Crown Prince asserted that such measures are crucial for fostering a just and comprehensive peace, echoing a sentiment of peace and stability for the entire Middle East.

What if Iran closes Strait of Hormuz?

The Israel-Hamas war has raised the concerns of a wider regional conflict which could embroil Iran and other regional factions. Analysts and market observers say the conflict could prompt the United States to tighten sanctions on Iran, which may spur Tehran to take retaliatory action against ships in the Strait in Hormuz.

The Marshall Islands registry, one of the world's top shipping flags, last week flagged that vessels with links to Israel or the United States may face a heightened threat of attack within Israeli territorial waters, the Mideast Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman and Red Sea areas.

The strait lies between Oman and Iran. It links the Gulf north of it with the Gulf of Oman to the south and the Arabian Sea beyond. It is 21 miles (33 km) wide at its narrowest point, with the shipping lane just two miles (three km) wide in either direction.

The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have sought to find other routes to bypass the Strait, including building more oil pipelines.

About a fifth of the volume of the world's total oil consumption passes through the Strait on a daily basis. An average of 20.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, condensate and oil products passed through Hormuz in January-September 2023, data from analytics firm Vortexa showed.

OPEC members Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the Strait.

Qatar, the world's biggest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, sends almost all of its LNG through the Strait.

 

 

 

Saudi Crown Prince calls for Palestinian state on 1967 borders

According to Saudi Gazette, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has called for creating conditions that lead to stability in Gaza and lasting peace that ensures a just solution to the Middle East conflict by establishing a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders.

Prince Mohammed affirmed the Kingdom's categorical rejection of targeting civilians under any pretext and stressed the importance of adhering to international humanitarian law and the need to stop military operations against civilians and their infrastructure that directly affects their lives.

The Crown Prince made the remarks during his opening speech at the GCC-ASEAN summit in Riyadh on Friday.

"As we are holding this meeting, we are pained by the escalation of the ongoing violence in Gaza, the price of which is being paid by innocent civilians," he said.

Deputizing for Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman, Prince Mohammed chaired the Riyadh Summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The Crown Prince received the leaders and heads of delegations participating in the summit upon their arrival at the summit's venue.

At the outset of the summit, verses of the Holy Qur'an were recited, following that the Crown Prince delivered the opening speech.

He said, "On behalf of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz, I am delighted to welcome you to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We are pleased to hold this summit that is a testimony to the friendship and cooperation between the GCC states and ASEAN.

"Our meeting today aims to further develop cooperation and partnership in a way that fulfills the interests of peoples, increases opportunities for development, and consolidates security and stability."

He added, "The GCC-ASEAN countries have achieved a milestone in economic development, with the collective GDP of our countries exceeding US$7.8 trillion. We have witnessed economic growth that has increased our countries' contribution to the global GDP; the economies of the GCC and ASEAN countries have grown by 7.3% and 5.7%, respectively in 2022, motivating us to work together toward a more prosperous economy."

The growing GCC-ASEAN trade relations are evident by the volume of trade with the ASEAN countries, amounting to US$137 billion, 8% of GCC's global trade. The GCC exports to the ASEAN countries constitute 9% of its total exports; the GCC imports from ASEAN amount to 6% of the total GCC imports.

Over the past 20 years, the GCC invested 4% of its total foreign investments in ASEAN countries, amounting to US$75 billion. The ASEAN investment in the GCC accounts for 3.4% of the total foreign direct investments in the GCC countries, amounting to US$24.8 billion.

"We look forward to strengthening our economic relations, taking advantage of the available opportunities, and opening new scopes of cooperation in all fields, in light of the human resources, commercial opportunities, and promising investment projects that our countries possess."

Prince Mohammed commended "the level of coordination and cooperation our countries enjoy when it comes to international developments," while reaffirming the keenness to further advance joint action "to realize our goals and meet the aspirations of our peoples."

The Crown Prince appreciated ASEAN countries' support for the Kingdom's bid to host the Expo 2030 in Riyadh.

"The joint GCC-ASEAN action plan for 2024-2028 sets out a clear road map for increasing cooperation and partnership, which we are all keen to do, in various fields in order to serve our interests," he said.

He pledged that GCC countries will continue to be safe and reliable sources of energy, and contribute to maintaining the stability of global energy markets. "We are striving, at an accelerated pace, to meet, in a sustainable way, the requirements for developing clean, low-carbon energy technologies and petrochemical supply chains," Prince Mohammed said.

"We also look forward to achieving the maximum benefit from logistical resources and infrastructure, for expanding cooperation in tourism and cultural activities, enhancing communication among our peoples and establishing partnerships among the business sectors in our countries, to contribute to achieving the goals of our ambitious visions for a better future of prosperity, development and progress."

  

Saudi Arabia rejects forced displacement of Palestinians

The Cabinet, chaired by Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman in Riyadh on Tuesday, renewed the Kingdom's categorical rejection of calls for the forced displacement of the Palestinian people, and demanded an immediate ceasefire, lifting the siege on Gaza and advancing the peace process in accordance with the UN Security Council resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative aimed at establishing an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

The Cabinet went over the content of the talks between the Kingdom and a number of countries concerning the ongoing escalation in Gaza and other related developments, including the phone calls the Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed Bin Salman received from the presidents of Turkiye, Iran and France, as well as the meeting he held with the US secretary of state.

The Cabinet was briefed on the content of the message the Crown Prince received from the UAE vice president, prime minister and ruler of Dubai concerning ties between the two countries and their peoples, and ways to strengthen them.

In a statement to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) following the session, Minister of Media Salman Bin Yousef Al-Dosari said that the Cabinet discussed the overall foreign policy of the Kingdom, including strengthening ties with various countries.

The Cabinet reviewed the outcome of the eighth Saudi-Russian Joint Committee meetings, which aim to boost cooperation in vital areas, to achieve desired future goals.

The Cabinet highlighted the Kingdom's stand during the Council of Ministers meeting of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), when it renewed its support for efforts to confront the challenges facing maritime safety and global trade, and to secure the freedom of global navigation.

Concerning the UN's selection of Riyadh to host the 19th edition of the Internet Governance Forum (IGF) in 2024, the Cabinet said it is testimony to the Kingdom’s global leadership in this field, and to its efforts to create an infrastructure capable of nurturing sustainable development goals and serving communities and the business sector.

Saudi Arabia rejects forced displacement of Palestinians

Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal Bin Farhan in a meeting with US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken in Riyadh on Saturday, categorically rejected calls for the forced displacement of the Palestinian people from Gaza.

During the meeting, the Saudi foreign minister also expressed his condemnation of targeting civilians in any way.

Prince Faisal stressed Saudi Arabia’s demand for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and its surroundings, and to lift the siege on the Strip in line with international law.

This, he added, is in addition to work to ensure the entry of urgent humanitarian aid, including food and medicine.

The priority now is to work to prevent more innocent civilians from being affected as a result of the ongoing spiral of violence, the Saudi foreign minister said.

He called for the need to make a rapid collective effort to stop this spiral, and all forms of military escalation against civilians to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

“Israel must abide by international humanitarian law,” he emphasized.

“Any actions that contradict international law and international humanitarian law will deepen the current crisis and increase the suffering in that region.”

Prince Faisal stressed that dialogue is the only way to finding a just and comprehensive political solution to the conflict.

He noted that the international community must assume its responsibility to stop the violence and advance the peace process in accordance with the resolutions of the Security Council, the United Nations General Assembly, and the Arab Peace Initiative.

The meeting was attended by Saudi Arabia's Ambassador to the United States Princess Reema Bint Bandar and the Deputy Minister for Political Affairs Ambassador Dr. Saud Al-Sati.

Saudi Arabia-Israel deal in doldrums

According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia has put US-backed plans to normalize ties with Israel on ice due to rapid rethinking of its foreign policy priorities as war escalates between Israel and Palestinian group Hamas.

The conflict has also pushed the kingdom to engage with Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman took his first phone call from Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi as Riyadh tries to prevent a broader surge in violence across the region.

There would be a delay in the US-backed talks on normalization with Israel that was a key step for the kingdom to secure what Riyadh considers the real prize of a US defence pact in exchange.

Until Iran-backed Hamas sparked a war on October 07 by launching a devastating attack on Israel, both Israeli and Saudi leaders had been saying they were moving steadily towards a deal that could have reshaped the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia, had until the latest conflict indicated it would not allow its pursuit of a US defence pact be derailed even if Israel did not offer significant concessions to the Palestinians in the their bid for statehood.

But an approach that sidelined Palestinians would risk angering Arabs around the region, as Arab news outlets broadcast images of Palestinians killed in Israeli retaliatory airstrikes.

It is believed that talks could not be continued for now and the issue of Israeli concessions for the Palestinians would need to be a bigger priority when discussions resumed.

US National Security advisor Jake Sullivan told a White House briefing this week that the normalization effort was not on hold but said the focus was on other immediate challenges.

Reportedly, Washington had pressed Riyadh to condemn the Hamas attack but said Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan pushed back.

The regional conflict has also prompted the Saudi crown prince and Iran's president to speak for the first time after a Chinese-brokered initiative prompted the Gulf rivals to re-establish diplomatic ties in April.

A Saudi statement said the crown prince told Raisi, “The kingdom is exerting maximum effort to engage with all international and regional parties to halt the ongoing escalation".

The Saudi statement said the crown prince stated the kingdom's opposition to any form of civilian targeting and the loss of innocent lives and expressed Riyadh's unwavering stance in standing up for the Palestinian cause.

Saudi Arabia has been seeking to ease tensions elsewhere in the Middle East, including seeking to end a conflict Yemen, where Riyadh has led a military coalition in a war against the Iran-aligned Houthis.

Asked about Raisi's call with the crown prince, a senior US State Department official said Washington was in constant contact with Saudi leaders.

The official said Washington was asking partners with channels to Hamas, Hezbollah - a Lebanese armed group aligned with Tehran that fought a war with Israel in 2006 to get Hamas to stand down from its attacks, to release hostages, keep Hezbollah out (and) keep Iran out of the fray."

Gulf states, including those with Israeli ties, were worried Iran could be drawn into a conflict that would affect them.

Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the last week showed how the Saudi and Iranian visions for the region diverged.

"The Saudis are still convinced the region, and Saudi Arabia itself, needs to shift toward regional cooperation and economic development. Iran seems to think the priority is to take the fight to the Israelis first," he said.

 

 

What is endgame in Gaza?

As these lines are being written, tens of thousands of IDF soldiers are stationed near Gaza, ready to enter. Israel’s security cabinet has met multiple times and made decisions that have remarkably not been shared press. It appears that the actual goals of the war remain top secret.

Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, closest to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, spoke generally about his government’s objectives in an interview with CNN’s Dana Bash on Sunday, thw day he attended security cabinet meetings and was on the phone when US President Joe Biden called Netanyahu.  “We need to cripple the capacity of the terrorists,” Dermer said, without revealing too many details.

Israeli military warns Gazans to relocate south for safety. It means there has been a change in the paradigm, because if not, what is the point of risking the lives of Israel’s soldiers and the reservists who left lucrative jobs to fight for the country?

The IDF has been advised to craft a security zone around the Gaza Strip to prevent future infiltrations. The security zone would be no man’s land and would not enable additional surprises. 

It was not safe to have communities so close to the Gaza Strip that has been controlled by terrorists since the 2007 Hamas takeover. Such a security zone would obviously not stop rocket attacks, but it would give the Iron Dome missile defense system additional precious seconds to protect people. 

Israel has had security zones on its border before, including in Lebanon. A security zone on the Lebanese border can be restored.   

During the time the security zone is in place, international efforts must be made to inculcate a culture of peace in the next generation of Gazans and eliminate a culture of terrorism.

It is interesting that after betting pools were created on whether the potential agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia would be sabotaged by Israel, the Palestinians, or Biden, it ended up being Iran. Biden, of course, did his part, too.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s attacks after authorizing them at a meeting in Beirut last Monday. 

The Biden administration admitted on Saturday that there was no doubt Tehran has been providing support for Hamas in the form of funding and arms, the Journal reported.

What connects these two reports is that the Biden administration has enabled Iran to receive access to billions of dollars that were frozen in South Korea. It also distributed hundreds of millions of dollars in US taxpayer funds to the Palestinians.

Internal documents obtained by the Washington Free Beacon in August found that despite internal assessments that such funding could boost Hamas, the Biden administration allocated the money anyway. The internal documents included the draft of the exemption request and internal emails about the need for the Treasury Department to grant it.

“We assess there is a high-risk Hamas could potentially derive indirect, unintentional benefit from US assistance to Gaza,” the State Department wrote in a draft sanctions exemption request circulated internally in March 2021, shortly after Biden took office, according to the report. “Notwithstanding this risk, State believes it is in our national security interest to provide assistance in the West Bank and Gaza to support the foreign policy objectives.”

It must make up for this strategic error by giving full support to Israel to do everything necessary to ensure that Hamas and Islamic Jihad will never be able to attack Israel again from Gaza, Judea, or Samaria.

Finally, Biden must seek a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia along the parameters of the Abraham Accords, with no Palestinian involvement or concessions to the corrupt Palestinian Authority or the terrorist organizations. 

Israel adamant at erasing Gaza

In the aftermath of Hamas’s assault over the weekend, officials from Israel and the United States are saying the group must not be allowed to survive.

“Just as the forces of civilization united to defeat ISIS, the forces of civilization must support Israel in defeating Hamas,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in an address to the nation this week. 

Israeli officials and regional experts are warning of, at least, a months-long Israeli military campaign in the Gaza Strip. And there are immediate fears the conflict could spill out across the region and beyond.

While Hamas’s main base of military operations is in Gaza — a narrow strip of sandy land sandwiched between Israel, Egypt and the Mediterranean Sea — its leadership lives across the world.

Its funding and military materials are largely provided by Iran, whose militant network extends to Hezbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. 

“We understand that you cannot kill ideas, but you absolutely can demolish the regime or the leadership,” said Neumi Neumann, former director of research for Israel’s internal security agency, the Shin Bet, now a visiting fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

She said a narrow campaign could avoid a larger conflict, focused on targeting Hamas’s two top leaders, Yahya Sinwar, the group’s leader based in Gaza, and Saleh al-Arouri, deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau, who lives in Lebanon.  

“They both are trying to incite Palestinians in the West Bank, they incite Israeli Arabs inside east Jerusalem. They are trying to do a multi-front campaign against Israel,” Neumann said.

The group needs to be “taken off the battlefield, that could mean kill or capture, whatever the Israelis need to do,” Jason Crow said to reporters Tuesday evening after a classified briefing on Israel. 

“It’s clear that Hamas needs to be fully neutralized here, and there’s bipartisan consensus around that issue.”

Joni Ernst, speaking to Fox News from Jerusalem after leading a congressional delegation across the Middle East, said Israel will not be safe until Hamas is gone.

“It is extremely important that Israel proceed and make sure that they are absolutely destroying Hamas,” she said.

“This organization I would equate to ISIS. They are barbarians, and yes there will be some horrible tragedies along the way, but Israel is warning the people of the Gaza Strip, please move away from those Hamas targets. But Israel will not be safe; the people will not be safe until Hamas is gone.” 

The European Union and United Nations have already warned that Israel is committing war crimes in its response to Hamas, pointing to Jerusalem’s announcement of a sweeping siege on Gaza.

Biden has avoided similar public statements, giving Israel space to target Hamas in what is likely to be a brutal military operation on the densely populated Gaza Strip, where the terrorist group has blended its infrastructure among the civilian population. 

Israel is reportedly preparing to launch a ground assault on Hamas-controlled territory, which would begin a bloody new phase in the war. 

“The calls in Israel to topple Hamas now are loud. I do not know if they will win the day, but I would not rule it out,” said Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, on a panel Tuesday. 

“It is possible that Israel will try to go all the way in or find itself going all the way in to Gaza. And what would be the day after? I don’t know. And more importantly, the Israeli leadership doesn’t know. It would be an extremely difficult, possibly terrible scenario afterwards.”

Shibley Telhami, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings and a former senior adviser to the State Department, said in the panel discussion that the US has a critical role as a level-headed advisor to Israel. 

“I also think that one cannot be confident that the policies that are being made right now — whether it’s by Hamas or by Israel, anybody else — is sound policy,” Telhami said.

“It’s on the fly. This came as a shocker. The urge to respond is not necessarily going to lead to wise decisions. And I think the United States has a critical role in counseling.”

Israeli hearts are hardened amid the trauma of Hamas’s assault, a barrage of missile attacks alongside more than 1,000 of its fighters infiltrating nearly a dozen communities in the south and attacking a music festival. Hamas massacred people in their homes and kidnapped others, with estimates putting the dead in Israel at more than 1,000 and at least 150 hostages taken into Gaza.

And now, Palestinians in Gaza are suffering under punishing Israeli air strikes against Hamas targets and are caught behind a hermetically sealed blockade. 

Gaza’s Ministry of Health, which operates under Hamas’s control of the strip, said that more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed since Saturday — when Hamas launched its assault on Israel — and more than 5,000 injured, with 60 percent of those women and children. Nearly 200,000 Gazans are believed displaced amid punishing Israeli air strikes.

US officials are so far silencing calls for a cease-fire and holding back criticism of Israel’s decision to cut off electricity, water and supplies to Gaza and to send extra military support for the Israel Defense Forces.

“Israel has a right to conduct an aggressive response to respond to the terrorism that’s been committed against its citizens,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters Tuesday when asked whether cutting off supplies to Gaza constituted a war crime.

“We expect them to follow international law, we believe that they will, and we will remain in close contact with them about it.” 

Biden is also challenged with avoiding a larger outbreak of war in the region, sending the most advanced carrier strike group to deter Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon from trying to open up separate fronts against Israel.

“Let me say again — to any country, any organization, anyone thinking of taking advantage of this situation, I have one word: Don’t. Don’t,” the president said in Tuesday remarks at the White House. 

American and Israeli officials say there’s no evidence Iran had a direct hand in the Hamas attack, even as they acknowledge Tehran’s longtime military backing of the terrorist group. 

It’s a delicate distinction. A more direct Iranian role in the attack could push the US and Israel into a direct confrontation with Tehran — particularly with at least 14 Americans believed to have been killed in Hamas’s assault and at least 20 Americans taken hostage.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan said the US acknowledges Iran is complicit in Hamas’s assault, but said there’s no confirmation that Iran knew about the attack in advance or helped plan or direct this attack.

Even as Republicans are irate at the Biden administration’s policy towards Iran, their calls for action have largely centered around freezing US$6 billion of Iranian funds the US freed up in exchange for releasing American prisoners, along with calls for imposing more sanctions. 

There’s near-unanimous support in Congress to fulfill what is likely to be a White House request for more aid to Israel. However, the request may also inflame ongoing debates about US support for Israel, and how it should be balanced with America’s other military commitments, like aid for Ukraine.

The House is largely paralyzed until Republicans can elect a new Speaker after ousting Kevin McCarthy earlier this month. However, interim Speaker Patrick McHenry has suggested Congress might act to support Israel without a permanent speaker if necessary. 

Meanwhile, the White House has dispatched Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Israel in a signal of solidarity.

“In the days ahead, we will continue to stand with our Israeli partners,” Blinken said in a statement ahead of his departure Wednesday.

“As I head to Israel, I will be working to ensure they are equipped to defend themselves and making sure any hostile parties know they must not seek to take advantage of the situation.” 

 

Saudi Crown Prince discusses Gaza situation with Iranian President

Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi discussed the ongoing Gaza military escalation in first phone call on Wednesday.

During the conversation, the Crown Prince underscored the Kingdom's commitment to deploying maximum efforts in engaging with both international and regional stakeholders to bring an end to the escalating crisis. He explicitly voiced Saudi Arabia's strong opposition to any targeting of civilians and the tragic loss of innocent lives.

Emphasizing the imperative adherence to the principles of international humanitarian law, the Crown Prince expressed deep concern for the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza and its severe impact on the civilian population.

In addition to addressing the immediate crisis, the Crown Prince reiterated the Kingdom's unwavering stance in standing up for the Palestinian Cause.

He affirmed Saudi Arabia's continued support for initiatives aimed at achieving a comprehensive and equitable peace, ensuring the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people.

 

Saudi Crown Prince affirms unwavering support for Palestinian legitimate rights

In a series of diplomatic discussions, Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman reaffirmed Saudi Arabia's unwavering support for the Palestinian people's legitimate rights during a phone call with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Monday.

The leaders engaged in a comprehensive dialogue, addressing the military escalation in Gaza and its adjacent areas. They expressed deep concern over the deteriorating situation, recognizing the threat it poses to civilian lives and regional security and stability.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman underscored the Kingdom's proactive efforts to collaborate with international and regional stakeholders, aiming to bring a swift end to the ongoing escalation and prevent its further proliferation in the region.

He emphasized the significance of upholding international humanitarian law and refraining from targeting civilians.

Moreover, the Crown Prince reiterated Saudi Arabia's commitment to standing by the Palestinian people in their pursuit of legitimate rights, advocating for a dignified life, the realization of hopes and aspirations, and the achievement of a just and lasting peace.

President Mahmoud Abbas expressed heartfelt gratitude to the Kingdom's leadership, acknowledging its steadfast stance and dedicated efforts in supporting the Palestinian people and their just cause.

In a separate conversation, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and King Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein of Jordan delved into the escalating situation in Gaza, reiterating concerns about its impact on civilian lives and regional stability.

Additionally, in talks with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt, the leaders concurred on the imperative to intensify both international and regional efforts to halt the escalation in Gaza and its surroundings, emphasizing the need to prevent its expansion in the broader region.

 

Riyadh concerned about Tehran's response to normalizing ties with Israel

An ex-Iranian envoy to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) said that Saudi Arabia was worried about Iran’s response to the establishment of relations between Riyadh and the Israeli regime.

In a recent interview with Jamaran news outlet on Saturday, Sabah Zanganeh noted, “Saudi Arabia agreed to restore ties with Iran to be able to pursue the normalization of relations with Israel is not a precise analysis.”

“Such an analysis would be an exaggeration,” he added. “Saudi Arabia is, has been and will be worried about Iran’s reaction. The other countries which have pursued the same policy are still concerned about Iran’s stance, too,” he averred.

Additionally, the ex-envoy addressed Riyadh’s attitude on Washington as saying, “Saudi Arabia seeks to gain concessions from the United States; namely, it seeks the privilege of atomic energy enrichment from the US.”

He stated that the Saudis were making an effort to obtain concessions in order to justify their choice. 

“The Saudis want Israel’s cutting-edge technologies as well as a trade and oil transit line to the Mediterranean,” he said.

The former Iranian OIC ambassador remarked that the improvement in ties between the two countries has left the Saudis without any excuses to gain more concessions and justify forming an alliance with Israel.”

“Israel, for its part, lost an element which it used to provoke Arab countries to adopt harsh stances against Iran,” he added. 

In a meeting with a group of foreign guests attending a Muslim unity conference in Tehran lately, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian said Iran aims to further strengthen relations with Saudi Arabia with the purpose of blocking normalization with the Zionist regime of Israel.

He continued, “Today, we are witnessing the resumption of Iran-Saudi relations, our intention is to have deep and extensive relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia with an eye on the interests of the Islamic world and with the aim of disappointing the enemy and blocking the way to normalize relations.”

Back in September, Iran’s new ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Alireza Enayati, said that Tehran views Saudi Arabia as a strategic partner in the West Asia region. 

In remarks to the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, Enayati said, “We consider the Kingdom a strategic partner of great importance within the framework of the good neighborliness policy pursued by the current government.”

Enayati told the Saudi paper that he intended to dedicate his efforts in the upcoming period to enhance and foster relations between Tehran and Riyadh.

He emphasized that both sides are strongly determined and sincerely willing to develop these relations, expressing optimism about a promising future.

The ambassador pointed out that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi had instructed him to do his utmost to strengthen brotherly and friendly relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

 

Saudi Arabia extends voluntary cut

Saudi Arabia on Wednesday extended its one million barrel per day (bpd) voluntary crude oil production cut until the end of the year 2023.

An official source at the Ministry of Energy announced that the Kingdom would continue with its voluntary oil output cut of one million bpd for the month of November and until the end of the year and that it would review the decision again next month.

The Kingdom’s production for November and December will be approximately 9 million bpd, the ministry said in a statement, carried by the Saudi Press Agency. “This voluntary cut decision will be reviewed next month to consider deepening the cut or increasing production,” the statement said.

Saudi Arabia first implemented the additional voluntary cut in July and has since extended it on a monthly basis. The cut adds to 1.66 million barrels per day of other voluntary crude output declines that some members of OPEC have put in place until the end of 2024.

The source also explained that this reduction is in addition to the voluntary reduction that the Kingdom had previously announced in April 2023 and which extends until the end of December 2024.

Russia also pledged to voluntarily reduce exports by 500,000 barrels per day in August and by 300,000 barrels per day in September. The cuts are described as voluntary because they are outside of OPEC Plus official policy, which commits every nonexempt member to a share of production quotas.

The ministry source confirmed that this additional voluntary reduction comes to strengthen the precautionary efforts made by OPEC Plus countries with the aim of supporting the stability and balance of oil markets.

 

 

Iran to block normalization with Israel

Iranian foreign minister has said that his country aims at further strengthening relations with Saudi Arabia with the purpose to block normalization with the Zionist regime of Israel.

Hossein Amir Abdollahian made the remarks in a meeting with a group of foreign guests attending a Muslim unity conference in Tehran. 

Amir Abdollahian and a number of foreign ministry officials met with the guests of the 37th International Islamic Unity Conference. The annual conference was held in Tehran with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in attendance. 

In the meeting, Amir Abdollahian appreciated the efforts of the secretary general of the Association of Ecumenism in holding the unity conference, and considered this conference as a banner of unity and ecumenism in the Islamic world, according to a statement by the Iranian foreign ministry.

The foreign minister said, “According to scientific indicators, the international world order and system is changing, and in the change and evolution of the world order, United States, as a superpower that has been striving for unilateralism for decades, still has the characteristics of a hegemon, but it is not able to apply it.” 

Amir Abdollahian considered the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani by United States, and Iran’s decisive response to this act in targeting the Ain al-Assad base and the inability of the US to show the slightest reaction to it as an example that the US is not able to exercise hegemony and this is as an example of the changing world order.

“Today, the world is in a sharp historical turn that has multiplied the mission of scholars and thinkers all over the world,” he added. 

“We have entered a new stage of developments in the region and the world, and today the understanding is being strengthened that if we do not think about our security, others will not help,” the foreign minister pointed out.

He continued, “Today, we are witnessing the resumption of Iran-Saudi relations, our intention is to have deep and extensive relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia with an eye on the interests of the Islamic world and with the aim of disappointing the enemy and blocking the way to normalize relations.”

He also pointed to the improvement of relations between Iran and Egypt. “We have met with the Egyptian foreign minister and made good agreements that we hope to witness a good development for the benefit of the two nations.” 

Amir Abdollahian held talks with his Egyptian counterpart on the sidelines of the annual UN conference in New York last month.

Referring to the speech delivered by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi at the session of the UN General Assembly in New York, Amir Abdollahian said, “Dr. Raisi, the president of our country, had two important initiatives while attending the United Nations; in addition to raising the Quran in this meeting, he raised the important issue of the family, because the global movement of solidarity with the family should be launched in the world. We are pursuing this issue in cultural institutions so that it becomes a global movement.”

 

Iranian oil output hits 3.15 million bpd

Reportedly, Iran has managed to push its oil output to 3.15 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest since 2018, the year Washington re-imposed sanctions on the country.

Analysts say the higher Iranian exports appear to be the result of Iran's success in evading U.S. sanctions and Washington's discretion in enforcing them.

As reported, OPEC oil output rose for a second straight month in September, led by increases in Nigeria and Iran despite ongoing cuts by Saudi Arabia and other members of the wider OPEC Plus alliance to support the market.

Last month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 27.73 million bpd, up 120,000 bpd from August. Production in August had risen for the first time since February.

The rise in September was led by Nigeria, which has been battling with crude theft and insecurity in its oil producing region.

Iran pumped more, with output hitting the highest level since 2018.

Iraq and the United Arab Emirates increased output slightly, while Angolan supply showed the largest decline in the group of 50,000 bpd due to a drop in exports.

OPEC's output is still undershooting the targeted amount by about 700,000 bpd, mainly because Nigeria and Angola lack the capacity to pump as much as their agreed level.

 

US oil reserves plunge to a 40 year low

The Biden administration has been draining the strategic petroleum reserves since the start of the Ukraine war in February 2022 to cap energy prices. At present the super power faces a double edged sword because its oil reserves have plunged to a 40-year low and global crude prices hover around US$100/barrel.

Reportedly, there has been a steep drop in US strategic petroleum reserves. The plunge in oil stocks highlights the mounting risks to US energy security. Low domestic reserves could increase reliance on imports, potentially making it more vulnerable to supply disruptions and price volatility in the global oil market.

The international crude benchmark has charged upward in recent months, jumping almost 30% since late May this year.

Oil prices have been climbing as top global producers, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, extend production cuts announced earlier this year in a bid to maintain price stability.

After the Ukraine war broke out in early 2022, the US government has used its Strategist Petroleum Reserve as its biggest buffer against global energy-price volatility.

Last year, it had released 180 million barrels from the SPR to hedge against expensive oil prices, and cool decades-high inflation.

While the Biden administration has been planning to replenish the SPR, the amount of barrels left in the reserve is currently less than half of the all-time highs reached in 2010.

 

United States-Iran relations driven by US domestic politics

The United States is one of the very few countries having most long-term tensions with other countries. The reasons are diversified, some of which are actually rooted in US domestic politics. The tensions between Iran and the US are a typical example.

According to Jin Liangxiang, a Senior Research Fellow and Deputy Director at the Center for West Asian and African Studies, Shanghai Institute for International Studies, Iran had tried but has failed many times to reach a détente with the US, and the reason actually was on the US side.

It is US domestic politics that had disrupted several processes of potential rapprochements. In other words, Iran-US relations had long been kidnapped by US domestic politics.

The meddling of US domestic politics in its foreign policy takes place in two ways. The first one is party politics. There are two major parties in the United States, namely the Republican and the Democratic parties. For the interests of its own party, one party would always challenge the actions, decisions and policy of the administration led by the other party within the context of party politics. As a result, an international multilateral agreement or a solution on one particular hotspot reached by an administration led by one party could be easily intentionally sabotaged by the other party in Congress.

The second is transition politics. An international solution of one administration could be abandoned by the next administration as the successor would legitimatize its own actions, decisions and policy by de-legitimatizing those of the predecessors. Usually, this kind of challenge takes place early before taking office. Anyway, it is always the best way to win the election by criticizing the policy of the incumbent.

The above-mentioned two scenarios take place in many US foreign policy issues. In climate change issues, the agreements reached by administrations led by the Democrats had been often challenged by the Republicans, and even overthrown by the Republicans in Congress.

US-Saudi policy of the Republican presidents could very easily be reversed by the Democrats either in Congress or by the president of Democrats in the name of human rights. US policy toward China, Russia and numerous other countries is also affected by US domestic politics.

Iran-US relations and US policy toward Iran are typical examples of how US domestic politics disrupted its foreign policy.

The last two decades had seen that US administrations had intended to negotiate a solution to various issues related to US-Iran relations, for instance, the nuclear issue, but had been strongly resisted by Republicans in Congress.

In 2018, the Trump Administration even withdrew from the JCPOA negotiated arduously by Barack Obama’s Democratic administration.

History also had seen how US domestic politics affected the improvement of Iran-US relations.

In the mid-1990s, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, when he was president, had intended to reverse and improve Iran’s relations with the US even by promising US companies to develop Iran’s energy projects, which was regarded as a big business. Albeit this favorable offer, Iran had been rewarded with Iran and Libya Sanctions Act by Congress and then was signed by President Clinton. The ACT prohibited companies from the US and other parties from investing in Iran’s oil sectors.

From 2001 through 2002, President Khatami saw the 9/11 attacks as an opportunity to reverse and improve its relations with the US and gave very substantial support to the US in its military actions to fight against Al Qaeda and for regime change in Afghanistan. But Iran was not rewarded with goodwill from the US side, instead, junior Bush in his 2002 State of the Union address unreasonably labeled Iran together with Iraq and DPRK as “Axis of Evils”, which later served as the beginning of US policy to further isolate Iran in the two decades.

A similar cycle also occurred to Hassan Rouhani’s efforts to reverse Iran-US relations. It is not deniable that Barack Obama’s administration had seriously meant to have a deal with Iran on the nuclear issue, and to have a comprehensive dialogue as a second step after the deal.

It was with this spirit that Iran and the US together with other parties finally reached the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also dubbed as the Iran nuclear deal, on July 04, 2015. If implemented reasonably, Iran could have reversed and improved its relations with the US, which might be something serious in then Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s mind.

Donald Trump criticized fiercely his predecessor for negotiating the JCPOA as benefiting Iran, and he believed that such criticism could enhance his position in the presidential campaign in 2016. Immediately after taking office in early 2017, Donald Trump declared that he would withdraw from the deal, and really did so in 2018 while launching the “maximum pressure” policy on Iran, which triggered Iran’s suspension of implementation of the deal step by step. History had seen the US had lost another opportunity to reverse its relations with Iran, a great civilization.

Despite efforts on the Iranian side from Rafsanjani to Khatami and Rouhani, the relations between Iran and the US had seen a very strange rationale.

Every time the real change could happen, the positive trends had been reversed. It seemed that a very strong force had been blowing back against the trends, which finally put Iran-US relations into a worse scenario each time.

The reasons actually lie in US domestic politics. There are three categories of anti-Iran forces in the US.

The first should be those political liberalists, who regard any non-Western political system as authoritarian and the Islamic system is no exception.

The second should be pro-Israel political lobbyists, advocating counter-Iran policy for the interests of Israel.

The third should be those who had negative memories of the Islamic Revolution, and they would like to take every opportunity to defame the Islamic Revolution.

The movie Argo even won several Academy Awards, which in some way reflected the anti-Iran social sentiments in the US.

Though some US administrations did want to improve relations with Iran, they failed to do so in a sustainable way. Those anti-Iran forces would not only promote anti-Iran policy on a regular basis but also take the advantage of US party politics, congressional politics and transition politics to reverse any trends to change their relations for the better. 

That explains the nexus of problems in Iran-US relations. Though Iran had tried many times to make changes in Iran-US relations, the efforts were strongly either resisted or reversed by anti-Iran political forces in the US via its domestic politics. The root causes of Iran-U.S. relations lie in the US side, particularly its domestic politics. To put it another way, it was the US itself that had lost Iran, which though was detrimental primarily to the interests of the US itself.

Two state solution blocks Saudi-Israel peace deal, says Pompeo

It could be impossible to establish a Saudi Arabia-Israel peace deal if a prerequisite is the Palestinians receiving or accepting a Palestinian state, according to former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo.

Pompeo helped orchestrate the Abraham Accords under former US president Donald Trump, which normalized relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Bahrain.

Pompeo told The Jerusalem Post that it is impossible to imagine a two-state solution with the current Palestinian leadership who is underwriting terrorism, taking money from Iran, paying citizens to kill Israelis.

“It is very difficult to imagine how one would strike a deal with the very leaders that have rejected every reasonable offer with which they have been presented.”

Pompeo spoke to the Post the day after Saudi Arabia’s first ambassador to the Palestinian Authority, Nayef al-Sudairi, visited Ramallah. During his visit, al-Sudairi emphasized that creating a Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital would be a fundamental cornerstone in any prospective agreement with Israel.

“The Arab Peace Initiative is the central point of any upcoming agreement,” al-Sudairi said.

Saudi Arabia Peace Initiative was initially ratified by the Arab League in 2002 and subsequently reaffirmed in 2007 and 2017. It requires a complete withdrawal of Israel from the West Bank and Golan Heights, establishing a Palestinian state with eastern Jerusalem as its capital, and a just settlement of the Palestinian refugee crisis.

In speaking about normalization with Saudi Arabia at the United Nations General Assembly last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “We must not give the Palestinians a veto over new peace treaties with Arab states. The Palestinians could greatly benefit from a broader peace. They should be part of the process, but they should not have a veto over the process.”

Similarly, in an interview with Fox News, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did not mention a Palestinian state but only said that the Palestinian issue is very important. We need to solve that part.

He said, “We got to see where we go. We hope that we will reach a place that will ease the life of the Palestinians and get Israel as a player in the Middle East.”

Pompeo said every American president would support a normalization agreement – Democratic or Republican. He said it is in America’s interest to have security relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia and between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

He said peace would be more easily attainable with a Republican president, meaning one that understands the greatest threat to peace in the region is Iran.

He explained that the Abraham Accords advanced due to the Trump administration’s acknowledgment of Israel as America’s primary democratic ally in the region while identifying Iran as the leading state sponsor of terrorism and a significant threat to all other countries.

“When we isolate Iran, the region becomes more peaceful and prosperous,” Pompeo said.