Netanyahu’s ‘Godfathers’ Still Working to Keep Him in Power

Benjamin Netanyahu’s marginal lead in Israel’s parliamentary election has not secured his political future. With neither major bloc reaching the 61 seats required for a majority, Arab-led parties have emerged as potential kingmakers. Their 19 projected seats could prove decisive, although ideological differences and opposition leaders’ reluctance to cooperate with Arab representatives complicate the formation of an alternative government.

The coming days may witness intense political bargaining. Netanyahu and his supporters will have strong incentives to prevent the opposition from assembling a majority. Political promises, incentives and pressure could all feature in negotiations, although any claim of coercion or attempts to buy political loyalty would require evidence. Arab representatives, meanwhile, have an opportunity to demand meaningful commitments on equality, public services and civil rights.

Yet Netanyahu’s political survival cannot be examined in isolation from his regional ambitions. His government has pursued policies aligned with Israel’s nationalist and Zionist constituencies while seeking to expand diplomatic normalization through the Abraham Accords. The question is whether these ambitions are strengthening Israel’s regional position or creating new strategic liabilities.

The UAE illustrates this dilemma. It invested heavily in becoming a secure, technologically advanced and internationally connected business hub. The regional conflict and threats to critical infrastructure have exposed the vulnerability of even sophisticated Gulf economies. Any perception that Israel’s actions have undermined the UAE’s security and standing could encourage other Gulf monarchies to approach normalization with greater caution.

Saudi Arabia has additional reasons to reconsider its strategic calculations. The Kingdom has traditionally relied on its partnership with Washington for security assurances. If Saudi leaders conclude that the United States has failed to protect their strategic assets, whether through deliberate restraint or serious security shortcomings, confidence in that partnership could suffer.

Consequently, Saudi participation in the Abraham Accords should not be taken for granted. Riyadh would have to weigh the benefits of normalization against credible security guarantees, regional stability and progress towards Palestinian statehood.

Netanyahu’s ‘Godfathers’ may continue working to preserve his political position, but keeping him in office is not the same as securing Israel’s long-term strategic interests. The real test is whether political survival at home can be reconciled with diminishing confidence among neighbouring Arab states.