The coming days may witness intense political bargaining.
Netanyahu and his supporters will have strong incentives to prevent the
opposition from assembling a majority. Political promises, incentives and
pressure could all feature in negotiations, although any claim of coercion or
attempts to buy political loyalty would require evidence. Arab representatives,
meanwhile, have an opportunity to demand meaningful commitments on equality,
public services and civil rights.
Yet Netanyahu’s political survival cannot be examined in
isolation from his regional ambitions. His government has pursued policies
aligned with Israel’s nationalist and Zionist constituencies while seeking to
expand diplomatic normalization through the Abraham Accords. The question is whether
these ambitions are strengthening Israel’s regional position or creating new
strategic liabilities.
The UAE illustrates this dilemma. It invested heavily in
becoming a secure, technologically advanced and internationally connected
business hub. The regional conflict and threats to critical infrastructure have
exposed the vulnerability of even sophisticated Gulf economies. Any perception
that Israel’s actions have undermined the UAE’s security and standing could
encourage other Gulf monarchies to approach normalization with greater caution.
Saudi Arabia has additional reasons to reconsider its
strategic calculations. The Kingdom has traditionally relied on its partnership
with Washington for security assurances. If Saudi leaders conclude that the
United States has failed to protect their strategic assets, whether through
deliberate restraint or serious security shortcomings, confidence in that
partnership could suffer.
Consequently, Saudi participation in the Abraham Accords
should not be taken for granted. Riyadh would have to weigh the benefits of
normalization against credible security guarantees, regional stability and
progress towards Palestinian statehood.
Netanyahu’s ‘Godfathers’ may continue working to preserve
his political position, but keeping him in office is not the same as securing
Israel’s long-term strategic interests. The real test is whether political
survival at home can be reconciled with diminishing confidence among
neighbouring Arab states.
