India acquiring strength to monitor movement of Chinese vessels in Malacca Strait

The grant issued by the Japanese government just could not go unnoticed by the stakeholders of Indo-Pacific. The US$36 million in aid to install a battery energy storage system on India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands ‑ Japan's first-ever grant to the strategically located islands ‑ is much more than clean energy. 

Sitting at the mouth of the Malacca Strait, arguably the most important chokepoint in the world, the islands give India and its friends a front-row view of Chinese vessels going into and out of the narrow waterway.

On 26^th March, Japanese Ambassador Satoshi Suzuki and C. S. Mohapatra, an Additional Secretary at India's Ministry of Finance, exchanged notes in New Delhi concerning grant/aid of US$36 million to install a battery energy storage system at the Phoenix Bay Power House on the island of South Andaman to utilize renewable energy and stabilize energy supply.

"It contributes to our shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific, and also contributes to Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga's goal of offering climate change assistance," the official said.

"The real advantage the Andamans provide to India is the ability to conduct surveillance over critical waters," said Darshana Baruah, an associate fellow with the South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"The islands offer unparalleled advantage in surveillance and monitoring the Malacca Strait. It is also close to the Straits of Indonesia, the alternate route into the Indian Ocean, especially for submarines," she said.

"A coherent monitoring and response mechanism will help India detect Chinese vessels upon their entry into the Indian Ocean."

But to maximize their potential, and to host more personnel on the islands, they will need to develop infrastructure, including water, electricity, housing and internet access. "The Japanese grant addresses a key requirement on the ground that will help India better utilize the strategic potential of the Andaman and Nicobar," Baruah said.

Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow and director of The India Project at the Brookings Institution, noted that while the power grid funded by the grant contributes to civilian infrastructure, "it serves a dual purpose."

Madan said that the grant comes at a time when India is stitching in Andaman and Nicobar into its strategic tapestry in a much more significant way and reflects a change in attitude on both the Indian and Japanese sides.

India was the first country Japan extended official development assistance to in 1958. But India has always been reluctant to bring external actors into the Indian Ocean. Japan, for its part, has been hesitant to be too active in India's strategic periphery, to avoid being unnecessarily provocative to China, Madan said.

On India's side, two things are clear, Madan said. One, there is recognition that China, including through its navy, will be increasingly active in the Indian Ocean region. Second, because India cannot tackle that growing presence on its own, "you have now seen a broader switch in Indian strategy that has involved both developing its own capabilities and welcoming other external actors."

China has been boosting its presence in the Indian Ocean, opening its first overseas military base in Djibouti and building a series of commercial ports in Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives that could eventually serve a military purpose.

India to begin full scale operations at Iranian port Chabahar in May 2021

India is getting ready to begin full-scale operations of its first foreign sea port venture Chabahar in Iran by May end this year. This facility located on the Gulf of Oman aims at facilitating South Asia, Central Asia and West Asia trade.

Indian US$500 million investment represents a clear and potent commercial challenge to China’s massive port investment in Gwadar port located in Pakistan, a key component of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

According to a report by Asia Times, India has nearly completed development of two terminals at Chahabar’s Shahid Beheshti complex that opens onto the Gulf of Oman.

The 10-year lease agreement, a deal first clinched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Tehran in 2016, has until now been hobbled by US sanctions imposed under the Donald Trump administration.  

Indian suppliers and engineers, some with interests in the US, were reluctant to deliver essential machinery and services to Iran on fears they could face sanctions, despite clear exemptions on Chabahar in Trump’s sanction order. That led to certain speculation that China may take over the project from India.

Now, New Delhi has accelerated the project with the shift from Trump to Joe Biden, banking like others on a new breakthrough on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and a broader US-Iran warming trend.

“I will inaugurate the fully operationalized Chabahar port in April or May,” Mansukh Mandaviya, Indian Ports & Shipping Minister, said in a recent virtual discussion on Iran’s Chabahar port.

India has supplied two large cargo-moving cranes and will deliver two more in the coming weeks before the facility’s expected ceremonial opening next month.

New Delhi is already promoting the port’s potential humanitarian role, noting it was used to send emergency shipments of wheat to Afghanistan during the COVID-19 crisis and pesticide to Iran to deal with a recent locust infestation.

Chabahar has seen limited operations since 2019 due to the US restrictions imposed on Iran’s energy exports. The port handled a mere 123 vessels with 1.8 million tons of bulk and general cargo from February 2019 to January 2021, well below its operating capacity, according to reports.

New Delhi ultimately aims to link Chabahar to its International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a project initially proposed by India, Russia, and Iran in 2000 and later joined by 10 other Central Asian nations.

Some see the INSTC as a less talked about rival to China’s BRI, which has invested heavily in Pakistan’s road, power and trade infrastructure, including huge multi-billion-dollar investments at Gwadar port.

INSTC envisions a 7,200 kilometer-long, multimode network comprised of shipping, rail, and road links connecting India’s Mumbai with Europe via Moscow and Central Asia. Initial estimates suggest INSTC could cut current carriage costs by about 30% and travel times by half.

Iran has already started working on a 600-kilometer-long railway line connecting Chabahar port to Zahedan, the provincial capital of Sistan-Baluchestan province close to the Afghan border.

Chabahar port consists of Shahid Kalantari and Shahid Beheshti terminals, each of which has five berth facilities. The port is located in Iran’s Sistan-Balouchestan Province and is about 120 kilometers southwest of Pakistan’s Baluchistan province, where the China-funded Gwadar port is situated.

In May 2016, India, Iran, and Afghanistan signed a trilateral agreement for the strategically-located Chabahar to give New Delhi access to Kabul and Central Asia.

The original plan committed at least US$21 billion for Chabahar–Hajigak corridor, which included US$85 million for Chabahar port development, a US$150 million credit line for Iran, an US$8 billion India-Iran MOU for Indian industrial investment in a Chabahar special economic zone, and US$11 billion for the Hajigak iron and steel mining project awarded to seven Indian companies in central Afghanistan.

Hajigak is the best known and largest iron oxide deposit in Afghanistan. It is located near the Hajigak Pass, with its area divided between Maidan Wardak and Bamyan provinces.

Unlike Chabahar, which is designed more to serve the economic and trade interests of the wider region, Gwadar is more tilted toward Beijing’s ambitions, analysts and traders say.

Riaz Haq, founder and president of PakAlumni Worldwide wrote in a recent blog that “China is looking to build and use Gwadar in Pakistan as Hong Kong West to serve as a superhighway for China’s trade expansion in [the] Middle East (West Asia), Africa and Europe.”

Gwadar port’s planned capacity will accommodate a massive 300 to 400 million tons of cargo annually, comparable to the combined annual capacity of all Indian ports. It also dwarfs the 10-12 million tons of cargo handling capacity now planned for Chabahar.

In another comparison, the largest US port at Long Beach, California, handles 80 million tons of cargo, about a quarter of what Gwadar could handle upon completion of a project that is designed largely to receive and move China’s trade.

Bizarre situation in Israel: Netanyahu being asked to form government 5th time

To begin with, I am obliged to say that the situation in Israel highlights two serious faults of country's dysfunctional system, first, that the vote is split between so many parties that a clear winner does not emerge, and second, whatever is developing is ‘trading and bargaining’ which will end up in making inappropriate choices to run the ministries. 

The idea of 5th election is disgusting, but this faulty system has failed in providing a sustainable solution.

A skeptical Israeli President, Reuven Rivlin invited Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday to form a new government, after another inconclusive election deepened political stalemate in the country.

In his speech, Rivlin lamented that he could not have imagined when he was elected seven years ago that he would appoint a candidate to form a government five times during his term.

He said his main consideration is formation of a government that could receive the trust of the Knesset, but no candidate can currently obtain a majority of the Knesset.

The country’s longest-serving leader, in power consecutively since 2009, now faces the toughest challenge of enlisting enough allies for a governing coalition.

Under law, Netanyahu will have 28 days to do so, with the possibility of a two-week extension before President picks another candidate or asks parliament to choose one. Continued deadlock could ultimately result in a new election.

Israel’s election on March 23, its fourth in two years, ended with neither a Netanyahu-led right-wing and religious bloc nor a prospective alliance of his opponents capturing a parliamentary majority.

 “To my great regret, I have the impression that none of the candidates, at this stage, has a real chance of putting together a government, one that would win a confidence vote in parliament,” Rivlin said.

In his televised remarks, Rivlin said that under Israeli law, Netanyahu, as the current prime minister, was not disqualified from being assigned the task despite his indictment on corruption charges.

“The president fulfilled his duty and he had no choice, but granting Netanyahu the mandate is a shameful stain on Israel,” Netanyahu’s strongest rival, centrist politician Yair Lapid, said.

Alternative to Suez Canal: Another canal through Israel

The United States considered a proposal to use 520 nuclear bombs to carve out an alternative to the Suez Canal though Israel in the 1960s, according to a declassified memorandum. The plan never came to fruition, but having an alternative waterway to the Suez Canal could have been looked into once again, after a cargo ship stuck in the narrow path, blocking one of the world's most vital shipping routes.

According to the 1963 memorandum, which was declassified in 1996, the plan would have relied on 520 nuclear bombs to carve out the waterway. The memo called for the "use of nuclear explosives for excavation of Dead Sea canal across the Negev desert."

The memorandum was from the US Department of Energy-backed Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. It suggested that an "interesting application of nuclear excavation would be a sea-level canal 160 miles long across Israel."

Conventional methods of excavation would be "prohibitively expensive," the memo said. "It appears that nuclear explosives could be profitably applied to this situation."

The memo added that "such a canal would be a strategically valuable alternative to the present Suez Canal and would probably contribute greatly to economic development."

As part of the pricing model, the memorandum estimated that four 2-megaton devices would be needed for every mile, which Wellerstein calculated as meaning "520 nukes" or 1.04 gigatons of explosives.

One possible route the memorandum proposed stretched across the Negev desert in Israel, connecting the Mediterranean to the Gulf of Aqaba, opening access to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. 

The laboratory noted that there were 130 miles of "virtually unpopulated desert wasteland, and are thus amenable to nuclear excavation methods." 

The "crude preliminary investigation" suggested that using bombs to create a canal through Israel "appears to be within the range of technological feasibility," the memo said.

But the memo conceived that one problem, which the authors had not taken into consideration, might be "political feasibility, as it is likely that the Arab countries surrounding Israel would strongly object to the construction of such a canal."

The memo came as the US Atomic Energy Commission was investigating using "peaceful nuclear explosions" to dig out useful infrastructure, Forbes reported in 2018. There were also plans to use this method to dig out a canal in Central America, Forbes reported.

But the PNE project remained experimental, after the US found that 27 experiments with PNEs heavily irradiated the landscape. The Atomic Energy Commission was also abolished in 1974. 

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory still exists. According to its website, it is dedicated to "ensuring the safety, security and reliability of the nation's nuclear deterrent."

The 1963 memorandum had also come less than a decade after the Suez crisis, a conflict for the control of the strategic waterway which was a defining event in the Cold War.

Arab League declares annexation ‘war crime’

Israeli plan to apply sovereignty to any part of the West Bank will end the two-state solution and eliminate the possibility of establishing an independent, sovereign and geographically viable Palestinian state, said Riyad Malki, Foreign Minister of Palestinian Authority.

In a speech before an emergency videoconference meeting of the Arab League foreign ministers, he said if implemented, the Israeli plan would also place al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem under Israeli control “before it is demolished and replaced by the ostensible Temple.”

The meeting was held at the request of the Palestinians to discuss the “dangers” of the Israeli plan.

The Arab ministers condemned the plan as a “new war crime” and “flagrant violation of United Nations resolutions and international law.” They urged the United States to back away from supporting the plan and said the Arab countries will support by all political, diplomatic, legal and financial means any decisions taken by the Palestinians to confront it.

The foreign ministers also called on the Quartet (United States, Russia, European Union and United Nations) to convene an urgent meeting to save the chances of peace and a two-state solution and to take a position consistent with international decisions to compel Israel to “stop implementing its colonial plans, including annexation and settlement expansion.”

Malki warned that if the Israeli plan is implemented, it would “transform the conflict from a political to a religious conflict that will go on forever because the Palestinians would not accept it and won’t accept anything less than the borders of 1967 to establish their state, with East Jerusalem as its capital.”

The Israeli plan to apply sovereignty to any part of the West Bank “would never guarantee stability, security and peace,” he said.

Malki accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of exploiting the coronavirus pandemic “to pass his decisions to annex large parts of the occupied Palestinian territory to Israel.”

 He also urged the Arab states to provide financial aid to the Palestinians as they face difficult financial conditions “due to the restrictions of the occupation.”

Any Israeli decision to annex parts of the West Bank would not change the status of these lands, Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit said in a speech during the meeting, adding that they will remain “occupied territories in accordance with international law.”

The purpose of Thursday’s meeting was to warn about the “dangers of the Israeli schemes to annex parts of the West Bank and the possible repercussions on regional stability,” he said. 

Turmoil in Jordan or coup sponsored by Israel

Former Mossad agent Roi Shpushnik was allegedly involved in the attempted coup in Jordan, according to reports in Jordan reported by Maariv, The Jerusalem Post's sister publication. According to the reports, the former Israeli agent offered Prince Hamza a plane to escape from the kingdom.

Earlier on Sunday, Jordan's Deputy Prime Minister Ayman Safadi said that Prince Hamza had liaised with foreign parties over a plot to destabilize the country.   

On Saturday the military said it had issued a warning to the prince over actions targeting "security and stability" in the key US ally. Prince Hamza later said he was under house arrest. Several high-profile figures were also detained.

"The investigations had monitored interferences and communications with foreign parties over the right timing to destabilize Jordan," Safadi said.

These included a Mossad agent contacting Prince Hamza's wife to organize a plane for the couple to leave Jordan, he said.

Many Jordanians were still grappling for answers in the aftermath of reports that Jordanian security forces foiled an attempt by Hamzah and some of his associates to topple the regime of King Abdullah.

People around Hamzah communicated with entities calling themselves “external opposition,” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said Sunday. He did not provide details about the “external opposition.”

Sixteen Jordanians have been detained in connection with the case, including Bassem Awadallah, a former head of the royal court, and Sharif bin Zaid, a member of the royal family, Safadi said. He accused the detainees of planning to “undermine the security” of Jordan.

Safadi accused Hamzah of sending out a video message on Saturday night as part of an attempt to “distort the facts and gain local and foreign sympathy.”

Abdullah received phone calls on Sunday from the kings of Morocco and Bahrain and the emirs of Qatar and Kuwait, who expressed their countries’ “full solidarity” with Jordan.

The leaders also voiced support for all measures and decisions taken by Abdullah to safeguard Jordan’s security and stability, the Jordanian news agency Petra reported.

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the Gulf Cooperation Council also voiced full support for Abdullah in maintaining security and stability in Jordan.

Trade with India: A debacle caused by lack of coordination among government functionaries

The reversal of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) decision on imports from India by the cabinet not only proves absence of coordination within the government, but also shows absence of comprehension and prudent thinking of serious matters that require sensible and level-headed approach.

A few days ago, at a press conference, Hammad Azhar, the newly appointed finance minister, had talked about ECC’s decision on trade with India, was based on economic factors. Interestingly, the summary moved in this regard was signed by Prime Minister himself.

The announcement made headlines both at home and in the neighboring country. The decision was viewed as part of recent measures to deescalate hostilities between Pakistan and India. Earlier, there was agreement of ceasefire across the line of control (LoC) as well as speeches were delivered by the Prime Minister and the Army Chief at the Islamabad Security Dialogue.

Ironically, the Federal Cabinet rejected the idea of opening trade between the two countries, leaving both the nations and the world stunned at the incongruence among the key facets of the government.

The debacle raises several questions that cannot be shrugged off by ministers. It has caused embarrassment. It points to a faulty system and also creates the impression that the key job of decision-making is conducted in a juvenile manner.

The explanations from Federal Ministers that ECC decisions can be overturned by the cabinet look novice. In fact Azhar at no point gave the impression that the ‘decision’ to trade with India was just a proposal under review.

It has now transpired that the foreign minister and some key members of government are against the idea of trading with India until New Delhi reviews its Kashmir policy and rescinds its decision to revoke special status of Indian held Kashmir.

While this approach may be in line with Pakistan’s stance on Kashmiris’ right to self-determination, it is also true that historically CBMs have been a part of the Pakistan-India equation.

The ECC decision may have been ostensibly about trade, but it would have needed input from all government departments, including the security establishment. Any decision having long-term consequences just can’t be made in isolation.

The fiasco is casting a cloud of uncertainty over Khan’s leadership skills. As demonstrated by this latest U-turn, communication problems, an inability to make and stick to decisions and poor conflict-resolution skills are becoming the hallmark of this government.

The nation has a right to know who is responsible for this debacle and what action will be taken to avoid such blunders in the future.