Pakistan stock market up 3% in 3Q2024

According to Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, topline Securities, the benchmark KSE-100 index has posted 3.4%QoQ in rupee and 3.7% in US dollar terms in 3Q2024, marking the sixth consecutive quarter in positive trajectory.

Continuation of positive momentum is attributed to: 1) firstly the completion of staff level agreement with IMF at start of 3Q2024, 2) IMF board approval and disbursement of first tranche to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) at the end of quarter, 3) Inflation entering single digits for the first time since October 2021, 4) reduction in policy rate by 300bps to 17.5%, 5) improvement in country’s credit rating according to major credit rating agencies Moody’s and Fitch, 6) better than expected current account number, which entered surplus in August, and 7) stability in currency amidst strong dollar inflows.

As per Bloomberg data, Pakistan market remained 4th best performer in 2Q2024 with total US$ return of 17% However in 3Q2024 the ranking stood at 66 in World Equity Index.

The continuation of positive momentum in stock market has been accompanied by healthy trading activity with average daily traded volumes in the Cash and Ready market increased by 74%YoY to 490 million shares. The average traded value also jumped by 86%YoY to PKR18 billion/ day during 3Q20204.

The average volumes in the Futures market also increased by 61%YoY and by 8%QoQ to 172 million shares/ day. The average traded value of the same increased by 57%YoY and by 4%QoQ to PKR7.2 billion/ day. Increase on a QoQ basis is due to lower interest rates in 3Q2024.

During 3Q2024, foreigners emerged net sellers of PKR4.68 billion (US$16.8 million) as against net buyers of PKR18.3 billion (US$65.8 million) in 2Q2024. Reversal of positive trend was due to FTSE rebalancing related foreign selling during the quarter which is expected to trail off into 4Q2024 as well.

Investor concerns regarding FTSE rebalancing related selling were mitigated by selling being absorbed by both local and foreign investors and the market maintaining its positive momentum.

On the local front, mutual funds were major buyers with net buy of US$14.2 million followed by Banks and DFIs with net buy of US$7.5 million. Individuals were the biggest net buyers to the tune of US$45.8 million. However, Insurance and Companies remained sellers of US$15.5 million and US$15.5 million respectively in the quarter under review.

The key scrips of KSE-100 index that outperformed market in 3Q2024 included National Bank (NBP) up 62%, Mari Petroleum (MARI) up 44%, and Fauji Fertilizer (FFC) up 42%.

Key sectors that outperformed market during the quarter included Jute, Pharmaceuticals and Transport.

Market outlook

State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in its last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held on September 12, 2024, decided to reduce the policy rate by 200bps to 17.5%. This was the third consecutive rate cut announced by central bank in response to receding inflation readings in past few months due to high base effect, falling food prices and comfortable external position.

Interest rate: The Committee noted that the pace of disinflation has exceeded committee’s earlier expectations due to delay in implementation of planned increases in administered energy prices and favorable movement in global oil and food prices. Since inflation is expected to remain in single digit in next quarter, further policy rate cut cannot be ruled out.

Rating Revision: IMF’s executive board approved Pakistan’s US$7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) on September 25, 2024. Following this approval, an upgrade of Pakistan’s rating by international agencies like Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P cannot be ruled out.

MSCI Inflows: MSCI Semi-Annual Index Review is scheduled for Nov 07, 2024 where we are expecting further increase in weight of Pakistan due to continued bull-run of market.

Commodity Prices: Outlook of Pakistan's economy will also be dependent upon commodity prices going forward. Brent oil prices have declined from average of US$85/bbl in 2Q2024 to US$79/bbl in 3Q2024. The petroleum group makes up a major portion of Pakistan’s imports and was 30% of total imports in 2MFY25.

 

Israel becoming a threat to world peace

When war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu spoke before the UN Assembly and claimed that there was a missile in every kitchen in Lebanon, the subtext of this absurd assertion was loud and clear – Israel will claim Hezbollah is using civilians as human shields as cover to expand their genocidal killing spree to Lebanon with impunity, just as they have done to excuse their massacres of civilians in Gaza. 

Shortly after that speech on Friday, Israel dropped 87 tons of United States supplied bombs on the suburbs of southern Beirut, Lebanon, assassinating Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah and a yet undetermined number of innocent civilians.

This is not the first political assassination carried out during this nearly yearlong terror campaign by Israel. In July, Israel assassinated Hamas’ chief negotiator, Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. Nasrallah’s assassination will certainly add yet more fuel to the fire burning out of control in the Middle East.

Kamala Harris’ response to this dangerous escalation was swift – she praised the assassination of Nasrallah, claiming that today Hezbollah’s victims have a measure of peace while reiterating her unwavering support to Israel, assuring that she will continue to provide them with US weapons and billions upon billions of taxpayers’ money to fund their carnage across the region.

Lately the Biden-Harris administration approved another 8.7 billion dollar weapons transfer to aid and abet Israeli war crimes.

What was missing from Kamala’s statement was any measure of concern for the people of Lebanon as they’re victimized by the kind of shock and awe bombing campaigns reminiscent of George W. Bush and prominent Kamala Harris endorser Dick Cheney in the early 2000s when they launched their illegal invasion of Iraq.

In fact, even George Bush demonstrated more concern for the loss of 12 innocent lives in 2002, when he condemned a residential bombing in the West Bank that assassinated a leader of Hamas. At least 1000 people have been killed since Israel started its onslaught of violence in Lebanon two weeks ago, and the death toll of this most recent bombing of six residential buildings is still unknown as teams comb through the rubble for human remains.

Biden and Harris are following Netanyahu headlong into an escalating cycle of violence that can only lead to more war, death, and suffering.

As Israel slaughters tens of thousands of innocent civilians with full US backing, they are creating more enemies than they can ever assassinate.

The United States need new leadership to stop this military madness by cutting off all US arms and funding to Israel to force an immediate ceasefire and end to the illegal occupation of Palestine.

 

 

Israeli strike on Hezbollah good for the world

US National Security Spokesperson John Kirby joined CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday morning, where he said Israel’s recent strikes that killed Hezbollah leaders were “good for the world” and called for a ceasefire.

“I think having decimated the command structure of Hezbollah certainly works to the Israeli’s advantage,” Kirby said.

“It’s actually good for the region, good for the world.”

Kirby’s appearance followed Israel’s recent attack on Hezbollah. The Lebanese militant group confirmed over the weekend that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah and other top officials, were killed in strikes.

In statements online, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said Nasrallah was killed in the suburb of the capital in a strike that targeted the command center used by the group.

A day later, another leader, Nabil Kaouk, was also confirmed by the IDF to have been killed.

Kirby said Sunday he doesn’t think “anyone is mourning” the death of Nasrallah but continued his calls for Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire before the tensions in the region expand to a regional war. 

Hezbollah will likely rebuild after the deaths, and Kirby said the United States is “watching to see what they do to try to fill this leadership back in.”

 

Israel brings the world to a ghastly war

The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, alongside Iranian General Ali Nilforushan, has escalated tensions in the Middle East to dangerous levels, potentially triggering a regional conflict involving numerous proxies. Some analysts now even refer to the United States as an Israeli proxy.

On Friday, a large-scale Israeli strike in Beirut resulted in the death of Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah. Given Nasrallah’s pivotal role in Lebanese politics, regional geopolitics, and Hezbollah’s position as a central figure in the 'Axis of Resistance,' his assassination is poised to send shockwaves throughout the Middle East.

Since October 7, 2023, Hezbollah has been exchanging fire with Israel following Hamas’s armed incursion into Israeli territory. In the ensuing weeks, Israel has intensified its operations inside Lebanon, launching a brutal bombing campaign that, as of Monday, has claimed hundreds of lives and displaced tens of thousands of people. Israeli forces have been systematically targeting key Hezbollah commanders for months, with Nasrallah’s killing being the most significant blow to the movement.

While Israel may have secured a tactical victory with Nasrallah’s assassination, it risks unleashing a cycle of violence that could spiral out of control. This echoes the assassination of Abbas Musawi, Nasrallah’s predecessor, by Israel in 1992, which, despite Musawi’s death, only strengthened Hezbollah. Under Nasrallah’s leadership, the group became one of the most formidable armed non-state actors in the region, playing a key role in ending Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon in 2000.

Similarly, Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin was assassinated by Israel in 2004, yet his organization remains a powerful political and military force within the Palestinian territories. Israel’s strategy of targeted killings has repeatedly backfired, as these movements often emerge more resilient, committed to retaliation.

While Hezbollah may be reeling from this latest loss, the group remains defiant. In a statement, they vowed to continue “confronting the enemy.” Iran’s Supreme Leader has also pledged continued support for Hezbollah and Lebanon, pushing the region into highly volatile territory.

Israel’s actions, including its unrelenting bombing campaign in Gaza and the targeted killings of Nasrallah and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, suggest it is seeking a broader confrontation with Iran and its allies. Moreover, some argue that Israel is attempting to drag the United States—its staunchest ally—into the conflict.

Israel’s aggressive posture has now brought the world to the edge of a major war.

Iranian General killed alongside Nasrallah

A prominent Iranian general in the Revolutionary Guard, Gen. Abbas Nilforushan, was killed in an Israeli airstrike that also claimed the life of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, according to Iranian media reports on Saturday.

The strike occurred in Beirut on Friday as part of the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, which has pushed the conflict closer to becoming a full-scale regional confrontation.

Nilforushan, 58, held a senior position as the deputy commander for operations in the Revolutionary Guard, overseeing ground forces. His presence in Lebanon during the strike has raised questions, although his role in the region highlights Iran’s long-standing support of Hezbollah.

The Tehran Times and other state-run media confirmed his death, with Iranian officials, including Ahmad Reza Pour Khaghan, deputy head of Iran’s judiciary, describing him as a "guest to the people of Lebanon." Khaghan stressed that Iran reserves the right to retaliate under international law.

Nilforushan’s death adds to the growing list of casualties within Iran's military leadership as Israel continues its operations against Hezbollah, which has been heavily involved in the conflict. Iranian support for Hezbollah has long been a source of tension, with the Guard’s Quds Force arming and training the militia in Lebanon.

The airstrike marks a significant blow to Iran’s military presence in the region, coming on the heels of the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was reportedly killed in Tehran earlier this year.

Both Hezbollah and Iran have vowed retaliation for these high-profile losses, intensifying concerns of a broader Middle Eastern war. 

World reaction on killing of Hezbollah Leader

The Lebanese group Hezbollah has confirmed the death of Hassan Nasrallah, its longtime leader, in an air strike on the group’s underground headquarters near the capital, Beirut.

Hours after Israel claimed killing the 64-year-old Nasrallah on Saturday said its leader “has joined his fellow martyrs” and pledged it would “continue the holy war against the enemy and in support of Palestine” amid fears that a regional war is now inevitable.

Israel carried out a large strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs on Friday evening, which it said targeted the Hezbollah leader, flattening at least six residential buildings.

Nasrallah, who led Hezbollah for more than three decades, was by far the most powerful target to be killed by Israel in weeks of intensified fighting with Hezbollah.

According to the United Nations, more than 50,000 people have fled Lebanon for Syria, as Israel’s attacks on Lebanon have killed at least 700 people since Monday.

Israeli jets pounded south Beirut and its outskirts throughout the night into Saturday, in the most intense attacks on the Hezbollah stronghold since the group and Israel last went to war in 2006.

Nasrallah had rarely been seen in public since 2006. He was elected secretary-general of Hezbollah in 1992, aged 32, after an Israeli helicopter gunship killed his predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi.

Hezbollah

The Lebanese group confirmed in a statement its leader had been killed “following the treacherous Zionist strike on the southern suburbs” of Beirut.

The group’s statement said Nasrallah had “joined his great and immortal martyred comrades, whose path he led for nearly 30 years, during which he led them from victory to victory”.

The group said it pledged “to the highest, most sacred and most precious martyr in our journey” to “continue its jihad in confronting the enemy, in support of Gaza and Palestine, and in defence of Lebanon and its steadfast and honourable people”.

Hamas

Hamas has condemned the killing of the Lebanese leader as “cowardly, terrorist act”.

“We condemn in the strongest terms this barbaric Zionist aggression and targeting of residential buildings,” the group said in a statement, accusing Israel of disregarding “all international values, customs and charters” and “blatantly threatening international security and peace, in light of silence, helplessness and international neglect”.

“In the face of this Zionist crime and massacre, we renew our absolute solidarity and stand united with the brothers in Hezbollah and the Islamic resistance in Lebanon,” the group said.

Fatah

The Palestinian Fatah movement also offered condolences and condemned the assassination, emphasizing “the historical relationship between the Lebanese people and their resistance and Palestine”.

Iran

Mourning Nasrallah’s killing, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said in a post on X that “the glorious path of the Resistance leader … will continue and his sacred goal of liberating Jerusalem will be achieved.”

Iranian Vice President Mohammad Javad Zarif also expressed his condolences, praising Nasrallah as a “symbol of the fight against oppression”.

Earlier, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned what he called Israel’s “short-sighted” policy in the region.

“The massacre of the defenceless people in Lebanon once again… proved the short-sighted and stupid policy of the leaders of the usurping regime,” Khamenei said in a statement before Hezbollah officially announced its leader’s death.

Iraq

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani condemned the attack as “shameful” and “a crime that shows the Zionist entity has crossed all the red lines”.

In a statement, Sudani called Nasrallah “a martyr on the path of the righteous”.

The leader of the Sadrist movement in Iraq, Muqtada al-Sadr, announced three days of mourning, writing on X: “Farewell to the companion of the path of resistance and defiance.”

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Israel’s recent attacks in Lebanon as part of what he called an Israeli policy of “genocide, occupation, and invasion”, urging the UN Security Council and other bodies to stop Israel.

In a post on X, Erdogan, without naming Nasrallah, said Turkey stood with the Lebanese people and its government, offering his condolences for those killed in the Israeli strikes, while saying the Muslim world should show a more “determined” stance.

France

The French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs said in a statement that it is in contact with the Lebanese authorities and France’s partners in the region to prevent destabilization and conflagration.

The ministry also stressed that the security and protection of civilians must be guaranteed.

Courtesy: Al Jazeera 

 

Israel kills Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in Beirut

The Israeli military declared on Saturday that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been killed in an airstrike in Beirut on Friday.

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah and one of its founders, was eliminated together with Ali Karki, the Commander of Hezbollah’s Southern Front, and additional Hezbollah commanders, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a statement.

Nasrallah, aged 64, was one of the founders and secretary general of Hezbollah. He has led Hezbollah for more than three decades. Nasrallah oversaw Hezbollah’s transformation into one of the most powerful paramilitary forces in the Middle East.

Israeli Air Force jets conducted a targeted strike on the central headquarters of the Hezbollah, which was located underground embedded under a residential building in the area of Dahiyeh in Beirut,” the IDF said.

“The strike was conducted while Hezbollah’s senior chain of command were operating from the headquarters and advancing terrorist activities against the citizens of the State of Israel,” sources added.

Following the announcement, the army chief warned this is “not the end of our toolbox.” Israel has been escalating its attacks on Hezbollah.

Overnight, Israel launched further strikes on southern Lebanon, targeting what it says are stores of Hezbollah weapons. State-run media in Lebanon says there have been casualties.

Lebanon has recorded more than 100,000 people displaced by the recent conflict, but authorities said the true number is likely much higher. Up to half a million people are likely internally displaced, said Dr. Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s health minister.

Hezbollah began firing on northern Israel the day after Hamas’ October 07 attack on the country. Around 60,000 Israelis have been forced from their homes, whom the Israeli government has committed to returning.

Last week, Israel massively ramped up its military campaign against Hezbollah, killing hundreds and displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians, according to the Lebanese government.