Can BRICS currency be adopted?

Brazilian President called on Wednesday for the BRICS nations to create a common currency for trade and investment between each other, as a means of reducing their vulnerability to dollar exchange rate fluctuations. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva made the proposal at a BRICS summit in Johannesburg.

Officials and economists have pointed out the difficulties involved in such a project, given the economic, political and geographic disparities between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Brazilian president doesn't believe nations that don't use the dollar should be forced to trade in the currency, and he has also advocated for a common currency in the Mercosur bloc of South American countries.

A BRICS currency increases our payment options and reduces our vulnerabilities, he told the summit's opening plenary session.

South African officials had said a BRICS currency was not on the agenda for the summit.

I n July, India's foreign minister said, "There is no idea of a BRICS currency". Its foreign secretary said before departing for the summit that boosting trade in national currencies would be discussed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said the gathering, which he attended via video link, would discuss switching trade between member countries away from the dollar to national currencies.

China has not commented on the idea. President Xi Jinping spoke at the summit of promoting the reform of the international financial and monetary system.

Building a BRICS currency would be a political project, South African central bank governor Lesetja Kganyago told a radio station in July.

"If you want it, you'll have to get a banking union, you'll have to get a fiscal union, you've got to get macroeconomic convergence," Kganyago said.

"Importantly, you need a disciplining mechanism for the countries that fall out of line with it... Plus they will need a common central bank... where does it get located?"

Trade imbalances are also a problem, Herbert Poenisch, a senior fellow at Zhejiang University, wrote in a blog for think-tank OMFIF.

All BRICS member countries have China as their main trading partner and little trade with each other.

BRICS leaders have said they want to use their national currencies more instead of the dollar, which strengthened sharply last year as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and Russia invaded Ukraine, making dollar debt and many imports more expensive.

Russia's sanctions-imposed exile from global financial systems last year also fuelled speculation that non-western allies would shift away from the dollar.

"The objective, irreversible process of de-dollarisation of our economic ties is gaining momentum," Putin told the summit on Tuesday.

The greenback's share of official foreign exchange reserves fell to a 20-year low of 58% in the final quarter of 2022, and 47% when adjusted for exchange rate changes, according to International Monetary Fund data.

The dollar still dominates global trade. It is on one side of almost 90% of global foreign exchange transactions, according to Bank of International Settlements Data.

De-dollarizing would need countless exporters and importers, as well as borrowers, lenders and currency traders across the world, to independently decide to use other currencies.

 

Chinese President calls for BRICS unity

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for unity among his BRICS counterparts at a summit in South Africa on Wednesday as he pushed the case for expanding the grouping to face a global period of turbulence and transformation.

Leaders of the bloc of leading developing nations Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa are meeting in Johannesburg with discussions around establishing a framework and criteria for admitting new members topping the agenda.

While all BRICS members have publicly expressed support for growing the bloc, divisions remain over how much and how quickly.

Bloc heavyweight China has long pushed for expansion and views its deteriorating relations with Washington as well as heightened global tensions resulting from the Ukraine war as adding urgency to the enlargement project.

"The world is undergoing major shifts, division and regrouping ... it has entered a new period of turbulence and transformation," Xi said.

"We, the BRICS countries, should always bear in mind our founding purpose of strengthening ourselves through unity."

BRICS group countries have economies that are vastly different in scale and governments that often seem to have few foreign policy goals in common, complicating decision-making.

The economy of China for example, is more than 40 times larger than South Africa's, Africa's most developed country.

Russia, isolated by the United States and Europe over its invasion of Ukraine, is also pushing to quickly grow BRICS and forge it into a counterweight to the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is wanted under an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes, sees BRICS membership as a way of showing the West he still has friends.

He did not travel to South Africa but used a video address to attack Western powers.

"I want to note that it was the desire to maintain their hegemony in the world, the desire of some countries to maintain this hegemony that led to the severe crisis in Ukraine," he said.

South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Tuesday that he and Xi had similar positions on BRICS expansion. But pushback has come from Brazil and India, which have both forged closer ties with the West.

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Tuesday rejected the idea the bloc should seek to rival the United States and Group of Seven wealthy economies.

While he is pushing for neighbour Argentina to join, he said any new members would need to meet certain conditions, so the group does not become a "Tower of Babel".

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Wednesday his country, which is wary of Chinese dominance, fully supported expansion.

However, an Indian official familiar with discussions late on Tuesday between the leaders said Modi indicated there have to be ground rules about how it should happen and who can join.

India and China periodically clash over their disputed Himalayan border.

More than 40 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, say South African officials, 22 of whom have formally asked to be admitted.

Details of criteria for joining could be included in a joint declaration due to be finalized on Wednesday.

Beyond the enlargement question, boosting the use of member states' local currencies in trade and financial transactions to lessen dependency of the US dollar is also on the summit agenda.

South African organizers had said there would be no discussions of a common BRICS currency, an idea floated by Brazil as an alternative to dollar-dependence.

At least 15 potential new member countries - including Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Argentina - are under consideration to join the bloc's New Development Bank (NDB), its chief financial officer said on Wednesday.

The NDB, which has long tapped China's capital market for funding, is registering an Indian rupee bond program worth US$2.5 billion over five years, after it issued its first South African rand bond last week.

 

Iran oil exports exceed 2 million bpd in August

Iran oil exports continue to increase in August, surging above two million barrels per day (bpd) which is their highest since the beginning of the year, Bloomberg reported citing TankerTrackers data.

It was already known that Iran's shipments were surging, but the data for August would represent a marked leg higher if maintained for the remainder of the period. The flow rate for the past 28 days shows shipments running at a rate of 2.1 million barrels a day, the Bloomberg report said.

As reported, TankerTrackers’ satellite images show a new surge in Iran's flows in August amid the reduction in the supplies of other top exporters.

Bloomberg added that the increase in Iran's shipments will boost global supply when Saudi Arabia and Russia curb output.

Earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that China’s oil imports from Iran have been soaring in August so that the shipments are expected to reach 1.5 million bpd, the highest since 2013.

Citing estimates from data intelligence firm Kpler, Blomberg put China’s imports of Iranian oil during the January-July 2023 period at 917,000 bpd on average.

Iran has been ramping up oil exports this year as it becomes more geopolitically assertive, with most of the shipments heading to China, Bloomberg said.

In late July, Kpler said that Iran’s oil shipments to China have more than tripled over the past three years despite the US sanctions on the country and the increase in Russia’s shipments to the Asian country.

According to the data analyzing firm, Iranian crude exports to its major trade partner have been hovering around one million bpd in 2023, while the figure was roughly 325,000 bpd in 2020.

Also, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a recent report titled ‘Oil 2023’ confirmed Iran's daily export of one million barrels of oil to China, saying, “Despite severe financial restrictions, Iran managed to increase its crude oil production by about 140,000 barrels per day in 2022 to an average of 2.5 million barrels per day. It seems that Tehran has maintained its crude sales to China, which has been around one million barrels per day since the third quarter of last year.”

According to official data, Iranian oil production also increased in the current year so that in May the country’s oil output reached 2.9 bpd, 350,000 bpd more than in 2022.

Earlier in April, Bloomberg reported, “Chinese private refineries are buying more Iranian oil despite the rising competition for supplies from Russia.”

“So-called teapots are prioritizing the flows, with Russian supplies getting pricier as mainstream buyers such as state-owned Chinese refiners and Indian processors take a greater share,” the report read.

In March, China’s imports of Iranian crude and condensate jumped 20%MoM to 800,000 barrels a day, and are on track to extend gains in coming months, Emma Li, an analyst with data intelligence firm Vortexa told Bloomberg that month.

While Iranian oil has long been sanctioned by the US, refiners in China have proved to be a consistent outlet.

Most Iranian oil used to go to state-owned refineries but the private refiners in Shandong especially are now running the show, said Homayoun Falakshahi, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler.

 

BRICS no rival to G7 and G20, says Lula

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said on Tuesday that the BRICS bloc of nations aims to organize the developing Global South and is not meant to rival the United States and the Group of Seven (G7) wealthy economies.

His comments point to a divergence of vision as leaders of the bloc - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - arrived in Johannesburg for a summit that will weigh expanding the group as some members push to forge it into a counterweight to the West.

Heightened global tensions provoked by the Ukraine war and Beijing's growing rivalry with the United States have pushed China and Russia - whose President Vladimir Putin will attend the meeting virtually - to seek to strengthen the BRICS bloc.

Their vision of an expanded BRICS capable of rivaling US and European global dominance has, however, been met with skepticism by some members. And the outcome of the debate over enlargement could determine the future of a bloc long criticized for a lack of cohesion.

"We do not want to be a counterpoint to the G7, G20 or the United States," Brazil's Lula said on Tuesday during a social media broadcast from Johannesburg. "We just want to organize ourselves."

Summit host South Africa welcomed China's Xi Jinping, the leading proponent of enlarging BRICS, for a state visit on Tuesday morning ahead of meetings with the grouping's other leaders planned for later in the day.

"I am confident that the upcoming summit will be an important milestone in the development of the BRICS mechanism," Xi said shortly after his arrival in South Africa.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said during a bilateral meeting with Xi that their two countries had similar views regarding expansion.

"We share your view, President Xi, that BRICS is a vitally important forum which plays an important role in the reform of global governance and in the promotion of multilateralism and cooperation throughout the world," he said.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also attending the August 22 to 24 summit.

Putin, who is wanted under an international arrest warrant for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, will not travel to South Africa.

Beyond the enlargement question, boosting the use of member states' local currencies is also on the summit agenda. South African organizers, however, say there will be no discussions of a BRICS currency, an idea floated by Brazil earlier this year as an alternative to dollar-dependence.

BRICS remains a disparate group, ranging from China, the world's second biggest economy now grappling with a slowdown, to South Africa, an economic minnow facing a power crisis that's led to daily blackouts.

Russia is being hammered by sanctions over its war in Ukraine is keen to show the West it still has friends.

India, however, has increasingly reached out to the West, as has Brazil under its new leader.

Two members - India and China - have periodically clashed along their disputed border, adding to the challenge of decision-making in a group that relies on consensus.

Expansion has long been a goal of China, which hopes that broader membership will lend clout to a grouping already home to some 40% of the world's population and a quarter of global GDP.

The leaders will hold a mini-retreat and dinner on Tuesday evening where they are likely to discuss a framework and criteria for admitting new countries.

India, which is wary of Chinese dominance and has warned against rushing expansion, has positive intent and an open mind, Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra said on Monday.

Brazil, meanwhile, is concerned that expanding BRICS will dilute its influence, though Lula reiterated on Tuesday his desire to see neighbour Argentina join the bloc.

While a potential BRICS enlargement remains up in the air, the grouping's pledge to become a champion of the developing world and offer an alternative to a world order dominated by wealthy Western nations is already finding resonance.

Over 40 countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS, say South African officials. Of them, nearly two dozen have formally asked to be admitted, with some expected to send delegations to Johannesburg.

 

Iran issues warning on US provocative presence in Persian Gulf

Iran’s Foreign Ministry has issued a warning against the provocative escalation of the US military presence in the Persian Gulf, saying that it is taking place just when regional nations are mending fences.

Nasser Kanaani, the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, stated that instability in the Persian Gulf region serves the interests of littoral states.

Talking to reporters at a weekly press conference, Kanaani stressed that the security of the region, especially that of the Persian Gulf waterway, must be ensured within the region itself by the Persian Gulf states. It is a general principle.

The United States has sent new fighter jets and destroyers to the Persian Gulf, especially at a time that Iran and Arab countries on the southern shores of the Persian Gulf are taking steps to open a new chapter in ties.

“Coinciding with growing convergence among regional countries, we hear claims made by the US government and witness an increase of its military forces, a measure that is provocative. However, we are optimistic that cooperation between the countries of the region will advance faster,” Kanaani added.

He also reiterated how very important the Persian Gulf region and the Strait of Hormuz are to Iran’s security, stressing that the Iranian Navy will respond to any illegal activity in the area professionally and legally.

The spokesperson also addressed allegations that a container of Iranian crude oil that the US had confiscated was unloading off the Texas coast.

“I read the story in the media and I have no confirmed information. There is a general principle that says the era of hit-and-run is over. Iran will not stand idly by in relation to any violation of the nation’s rights and will cut the hands of the aggressors,” he remarked.

Kanaani also said that the acts of trespassing on tankers carrying Iranian oil are a clear example of piracy.”

In response to a recent move according to which the US agreed to release Iranian funds blocked in South Korea, Kanaani also stated that Washington was forced to acknowledge Iran’s rights.

“The release of Iran’s assets comes at a time when the US tries to block them by imposing unilateral sanctions. However, we forced the United States to pay attention to Iran’s rights through our good diplomatic and legal efforts,” he added. 

After former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and reinstituted economic sanctions on Tehran, South Korea blocked US$6 billion of Iranian oil revenues. They resisted releasing them under pressure from the US.

He averred that a maximum framework of two months has been specified for the process, stating that Iran is working hard to get its assets released from Iraq.

Part of the process has been completed, he added.

Also, he ruled out the possibility of any meeting between the Iranian and U.S. presidents on the sidelines of the upcoming UN General Assembly meeting in New York, saying, “Such a plan is not on the agenda.”

He emphasized that indirect negotiations between Iran and the US are taking place in relation to a number of specific matters, such as the exchange of prisoners and the release of Iran’s foreign assets.

 

Goldman sees US shutdown over spending “more likely than not”

The United States government looks "more likely than not" to shut down later this year due to political differences on spending that could temporarily hit economic growth, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note.

The Goldman economics analysts said prior shutdowns - which occur if Congress fails to pass annual spending bills - have stemmed either from disagreement on the level or distribution of spending, or a dispute over other issues that one party wants to address in spending legislation.

"At the moment, both types of risks are in play," Goldman said in the note.

A broad government shutdown stands to directly reduce growth by around 0.15 percentage points for each week it lasts, while the reduction could be 0.2 percentage points a week when including a modest impact in the private sector, according to Goldman.

However, the analysts said, in the quarter following the government reopening, growth would rise by the same amount.

Markets have not had strong reactions to three past shutdowns, in 1995-96, 2013, and 2018-19, according to the note.

Equity markets were flat or up at the end of those shutdowns, though in each instance equity prices were lower at some point in the days following the start of the shutdown than when it began, the analysts wrote, while the 10-year Treasury yield declined more consistently after the start of the shutdowns.

The Goldman analysts said a shutdown is not a foregone conclusion, pointing to support for a temporary extension after the end of the fiscal year on September 30, 2023.

They also noted that compared to the severe macroeconomic impact of a failure to raise the US debt limit, the less dramatic economic effect of a shutdown also makes it more likely that Congress fails to act in time.

Iran natural gas export on the rise

According to the managing director of the National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC), Iran’s natural gas exports in the current Iranian calendar year increased by 16% as compared to the previous year.

According to Majid Chegeni, the country’s annual liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports also registered a 22% increase this year, IRNA reported.

“Since the beginning of the 13th government tenure, more than 5,297 villages with 307,000 households and 41 cities with 94,000 households have been connected to the national gas network,” he said.

He further noted that currently more than 98.6% of the country’s urban population and 86.3% of the rural population enjoy natural gas through the national network.

According to Chegeni, since the beginning of the 13th government’s administration (August 2021), more than 680 trillion rials (US$1.4 billion) has been invested in different areas and sectors of the gas industry (rural and urban gas supply projects, gas transmission lines and pressure boosting stations, refineries and research affairs).

The official further mentioned some of NIGC’s priority projects, saying, “Strengthening the gas network in the northeast of the country is one of the most important projects of the National Iranian Gas Company.”

He pointed to the smartening of the gas distribution network as another priority project of the National Iranian Gas Company and added, “The implementation of this project is one of the legal duties and responsibilities of the NIGC.”

“Last year, the consultant contractor of the project was selected, and soon the project will be implemented as a pilot in six provinces, and after that, the project will be implemented throughout the country, and we hope to be able to distribute 27 million smart gas meters across the country,” he explained.