Sunday, 4 January 2026

Capture of Venezuelan President: Return of Colonial Seizure Politics

If reports of the capture and removal of Venezuela’s sitting president are even partially accurate, then what is unfolding is not a crisis of governance or an overdue act of justice. It is the unambiguous return of colonial seizure politics—the doctrine that powerful states may confiscate sovereignty itself when defiance becomes inconvenient.

This is not regime change as an accidental by-product of policy failure. It is regime removal as method. The familiar language of democracy, legality, and human rights is little more than ornamental cover. Strip it away and the operating logic is brutally clear: discipline the non-compliant, seize control, and reorder ownership. This is not the breakdown of the international system; it is the system functioning precisely as intended.

Venezuela was effectively subdued long before this moment. Years of sanctions did not merely “pressure” the state; they systematically dismantled its economic sovereignty. Revenues were strangled, institutions hollowed out, and governance rendered structurally unworkable. This was not unintended harm. It was preparation. Economic suffocation created the conditions in which intervention could later be marketed as inevitable rather than chosen.

When sanctions failed to produce surrender, political fiction followed. The US-engineered experiment of Juan Guaidó was not diplomacy but theater—an attempt to outsource sovereignty without tanks. When even that farce collapsed, escalation became the only remaining option. Empires do not retreat when resisted; they recalibrate.

The capture of a sitting president is not law enforcement—it is a declaration of ownership. By asserting jurisdiction over a foreign head of state, Washington is not upholding justice; it is asserting hierarchy. Venezuela is no longer treated as a sovereign political subject but as a managed space—its leadership provisional, its future externally arbitrated. This is not international law stretched beyond recognition. It is international law discarded outright.

Oil is not the subtext of this intervention; it is the text. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves. Governments that privatize resources on Western terms are tolerated regardless of repression. Governments that insist on national control are destabilized regardless of elections. This is not hypocrisy. It is imperial consistency.

Dismissing Latin American resistance as “anti-Americanism” is willful blindness. From Guatemala and Chile to Panama and Nicaragua, the pattern is consistent: sanctions, destabilization, leadership removal, resource realignment. Venezuela fits perfectly—except this time, the mask is off.

This moment should not be personalized. Trump is not the cause; he is the instrument. The architecture of sanctions, energy interests, and bipartisan hostility to Venezuelan sovereignty predates him and will outlast him.

What is being normalized is more dangerous than Venezuela’s immediate devastation: the idea that sovereignty exists only by imperial permission, that sanctions are preparatory weapons, and that leaders may be seized rather than negotiated with. This is colonialism without occupation—domination without apology.

Saturday, 3 January 2026

Venezuela: Delcy Rodriguez Interim President

The Constitutional Chamber of Venezuela's Supreme Court ordered on Saturday that Vice President Delcy Rodríguez assume the role of acting president of the country in the absence of Nicolás Maduro, who was detained early Saturday morning in an operation by US forces.

The court ruling said that Rodríguez would assume "the office of President of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, in order to guarantee administrative continuity and the comprehensive defense of the Nation."

The ruling added that the court will debate the matter in order to "determine the applicable legal framework to guarantee the continuity of the State, the administration of government, and the defense of sovereignty in the face of the forced absence of the President of the Republic."

 

Will Iran Be the Next Target?

The reported capture of Venezuela’s president should not be seen as an isolated incident. It resembles a full-dress rehearsal—a live demonstration of how far the United States is willing to go to impose political outcomes beyond its borders. For those still clinging to the illusion of sovereign immunity in the international system, this episode should serve as a sobering wake-up call.

Washington has a long record of attempting regime change in Venezuela through sanctions, covert operations, and diplomatic isolation. These efforts largely failed to unseat the government, but they steadily weakened the country’s economy and institutions. When economic strangulation did not deliver political submission, escalation appeared inevitable. The capture of a sitting president marks a dangerous new threshold, one that blurs the line between foreign policy and outright coercion.

History offers unsettling parallels. One may recall the failed attempt by the US in 1980 to free its embassy staff held hostage in Iran. Though framed as a rescue mission, it underscored Washington’s readiness to violate sovereign territory when strategic or political pressure mounts.

More recently, Sheikh Hasina’s transfer to India can be viewed through a similar prism: political outcomes shaped not by domestic consensus but by external facilitation. Different contexts, same method—power over process.

Labeling such actions as “state terrorism” may sound provocative, but the term merits serious consideration. When a powerful state uses fear, coercion, and force to compel political change in weaker nations, the distinction between counterterrorism and terror itself becomes dangerously thin.

The irony is striking, the very actor positioning itself as the global guardian of democracy increasingly relies on methods that undermine international law.

Iran inevitably enters this conversation. Long under sanctions, diplomatically cornered, and persistently portrayed as a threat, Tehran fits the familiar profile. If Venezuela was the rehearsal, Iran could well be the main act. The lesson is stark - resistance invites escalation; sovereignty offers no guarantee.

The world must condemn the US actions unequivocally. Silence today signals consent tomorrow. If such precedents stand unchallenged, no regime—friend or foe—can consider itself safe. The erosion of international norms does not stop with adversaries; it eventually consumes the system itself.

Friday, 2 January 2026

US will intervene if Iran kills protesters, Trump

US President Donald Trump has warned Iran's authorities against killing peaceful protesters, saying Washington "will come to their rescue".

In a brief post on social media, he wrote: "We are locked and loaded and ready to go." He gave no further details.

A senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei responded by saying Trump should "be careful" if he intervened, warning of potential chaos across the Middle East.

At least six people are reported to have been killed in Iran on Thursday after almost a week of mass protests sparked by worsening economic conditions.

In Friday's post on Truth Social, Trump wrote: "If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue."

Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, condemned Trump’s remarks, saying he “should know that American interference in this internal issue is equivalent to chaos across the entire region and the destruction of American interests”.

“We consider the positions of the protesting merchants separate from those of the destructive elements,” Larijani added in a post on X.

“The people of the US should know that Trump began the adventurism. They should take care of their own soldiers.”

Larijani’s remarks likely referenced the US’s wide military footprint in the region. In June, Iran attacked Al Udeid airbase in Qatar after the US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites during Israel’s 12-day war with Iran.

In his post, the US president did not specify what action Washington could take against the Iranian authorities.

Iranian officials earlier said a member of the country's securities forces had been killed on Wednesday in the western city of Kouhdasht.

Footage posted on social media showed cars set on fire during running battles between protesters and security forces.

The protests began on Sunday in Tehran among shopkeepers angered by another sharp fall in the value of the Iranian currency, the rial, against the US dollar on the open market.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has said he will listen to the "legitimate demands" of the protesters.

The protests have been the most widespread since an uprising in 2022 sparked by the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a young woman accused by morality police of not wearing her veil properly. 

 

Yemen: Where Saudi and Emirati Paths Parts

For much of the past decade, Yemen has been framed as a proxy battleground between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Yet beneath this familiar narrative lies a quieter but increasingly significant fault line - the divergence between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Though, both entered the Yemen war as close allies, their strategic priorities have steadily drifted apart.

Saudi Arabia’s engagement has remained fundamentally security-centric. Yemen is Riyadh’s vulnerable southern flank, and the prospect of an Iran-aligned force entrenched in Sana’a poses a direct threat. This explains the kingdom’s consistent emphasis on Yemen’s territorial integrity and its support for a strong, central government capable of asserting authority nationwide. For Saudi Arabia, a fragmented Yemen is not a solution but a long-term liability.

The UAE, while initially aligned with these goals, adopted a markedly different approach as the conflict evolved. Abu Dhabi focused less on Yemen’s political center and more on its strategic periphery. Control over ports, islands, and coastal corridors—Aden, Mukalla, Socotra, and areas near the Bab el-Mandeb strait—became central to Emirati calculations. These assets sit astride vital global trade and energy routes, giving them value far beyond Yemen’s internal politics.

This divergence became most visible in southern Yemen. The UAE backed local militias, most notably the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which advocates autonomy or independence for the south. While these forces proved effective in securing territory and countering militant groups, they also challenged the authority of the Saudi-backed Yemeni government. Repeated clashes between allied factions exposed the incompatibility of Saudi and Emirati endgames.

For Riyadh, decentralization risks prolonged instability and leaves the north vulnerable to sustained Houthi—and by extension Iranian—influence. For Abu Dhabi, a decentralized or divided Yemen, with friendly actors controlling key maritime nodes, offers influence without the burden of governing a fractured state.

Tensions were further sharpened by differing risk calculations. Saudi Arabia remained deeply exposed militarily and diplomatically as the war dragged on. The UAE, by contrast, reduced its direct military footprint after 2019, outsourcing security to local allies while retaining strategic leverage. This asymmetry quietly altered the balance within the coalition.

The Saudi–UAE rift in Yemen is not ideological, nor is it an outright break. It is a case study in how alliances strain when national interests diverge. Yemen has revealed a fundamental truth of regional geopolitics - partners may fight together, but they rarely fight for the same future.

PSX Benchmark index up 3.8%WoW

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) moved upwards sharply during the week, with benchmark Index advancing 6,634 points, up 3.8%WoW, to close at a fresh all-time high of 179,035 points.

Market participation improved by 9.7%WoW, with average daily traded volume rising to 1.3 billion shares, as compared to 1.1 billion shares in the prior week.

Momentum was driven by a favorable new year effect alongside a softer than expected December 2025 inflation of 5.6%.

Sentiments were further buoyed by sharp rally in the E&P sector, following OGDC’s oil and gas discovery in Nashpa Block, where a second formation delivered 4,100 barrels oil and 10.5mmcfd gas, adding to the earlier discovery announced in December 2025.

OMC volumes also increased by 6%YoY during December 2025.

On the macroeconomic front, Trade deficit increased by 24%YoY to US$3.7 billion during December 2025, whereas, GDP grew by 3.7%YoY during 1QFY26.

Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by US$13 million to US$15.9 billion as of December 26, 2025.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) SBP buys US$6.9 billion from currency market in 12 months, 2) FBR collects PKR6.2 trillion in 1HFY26, but falls short by PKR338 billion of target, 3) Pakistan Eyes US$1 billion Liability Settlement via UAE investment in Fauji Group, 4) US seeks Pakistani partnership in locomotive sales, mineral exploration, and 5) Pakistan gets ready to launch first Panda bond in China.

Transport, Property, Vanaspati & Allied Industries, Oil & Gas Exploration Companies, and Pharmaceuticals were amongst the top performing sectors, while Jute, Woollen, Cement, Real estate Investment Trust, and Textile Composite, were amongst the laggards.

Major buying was recorded by Mutual Funds and Companies with a net buy of US$24.5 million and US$9.4 million, respectively. Foreigners and Banks were major sellers with net sell of US$18.8 million and US$10.7 million respectively.

Top performing scrips of the week were: JVDC, SSOM, UBL, FFL, and EFERT, while laggards included: DGKC, CHCC, KTML, KOHC, and MLCF.

AKD Securities foresees the positive momentum in the benchmark index to continue due to further monetary easing driven by improving external account position and continuous focus on reforms amid political stability.

The brokerage forecasts the benchmark Index to reach 263,800 by December 2026.

Investors’ sentiments are expected to improve on the likelihood of foreign portfolio and direct investment flows, driven by improved relations with the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Top picks of the brokerage house include: OGDC, PPL, UBL, MEBL, HBL, FFC, ENGROH, PSO, LUCK, FCCL, INDU, ILP and SYS.

Thursday, 1 January 2026

Year 2026 Key Events

Happy New Year from Nikkei Asia! It's the beginning of 2026, and in newsroom operations, one of the most important tasks is scheduling. Of course, the news never unfolds exactly as we predict. Our profession is to plan, prepare for news and respond flexibly to breaking headlines, grounded in meticulous reporting. With that caveat, I'd like to share my humble predictions on key news events likely to happen this year in Asia and beyond.

First, Asia has some major elections coming up. In Myanmar, the first general election since the military seized power in 2021 is being held in stages, with results expected by the end of January. Even after the election, military-friendly rule will probably remain, as will tensions with pro-democracy forces and ethnic groups. What deserves attention is how regional organizations like ASEAN as well as neighboring and major countries position themselves toward Myanmar's new administration. Following that, elections will be held in Thailand and Nepal. Thailand's general election is expected to significantly impact the country's uncertain relationship with Cambodia.

In business and tech, AI and EVs will be in the spotlight again following last year's booms. Massive data centers were built across Asia, and Chinese-made EVs expanded their market share, particularly in Southeast Asia. In AI, concerns about a stock market "bubble" remain strong, and whether that boom continues, deflates or goes bust will be a significant focus. Since Western markets hesitated to join the rapid EV shift, sales of Chinese EVs are likely to keep surging, especially in Asia. However, the crowded sector has given way to excessive competition, and this year may clearly separate winners from losers.

From June to July, the FIFA World Cup will be held in the U.S., Canada and Mexico. I'll refrain from predicting the champion, but you all know which team I'm rooting for. And this time, I think we might make it pretty far.

In November, the U.S. will hold midterm elections, which will serve as a verdict on President Trump's first two years in office. Over the past year, the president has shaken Asia and the rest of the world with threats and tariffs. This year, especially in the latter half, he will likely have to turn his attention to domestic issues. That said, Trump has defied every prediction so far, so caution is warranted.

How will China's economy evolve? Will U.S.-China relations improve or worsen? Predictions could go on endlessly, so I'll stop here. One thing is for sure in an increasingly uncertain world: Nikkei Asia's reporters and editors will spare no effort to deliver fact-based, insightful journalism on all issues. Please continue to look forward to Nikkei Asia's coverage in 2026.

Courtesy: Nikkei Asia