Saudi Arabia to boost oil production capacity

Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, announced the Kingdom's ambitious plan to increase its oil production capacity to 12.3 million barrels per day by 2028. This significant expansion aligns with the Kingdom's strategic goals amidst evolving global energy markets.

The announcement came during a special panel discussion at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum in Russia. The forum, themed "The Future of the Oil and Gas Market: Global Demand Outlook and Producers' Plans," was attended by several OPEC and non-OPEC ministers.

Prince Abdulaziz, who also serves as the chairman of the OPEC+ ministerial meetings, underscored the robust decisions made during the 37th OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting held on June 02 in Riyadh.

He emphasized that the OPEC Plus agreement allows for flexible adjustments to production, including temporary suspensions or reversals if market conditions necessitate.

Responding to market reactions and media interpretations, Prince Abdulaziz criticized some analysts for their negative portrayal of the OPEC Plus decisions.

He cited recent erroneous reports from major financial institutions, arguing that such narratives misrepresent the strength and foresight of the OPEC Plus strategies.

Prince Abdulaziz reiterated the effectiveness of OPEC Plus actions, particularly highlighting the success of the April 2020 meeting during the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent June meeting.

He dismissed claims that OPEC Plus is focused more on market share than price stabilization, asserting that OPEC Plus consistently acts in the best interest of market stability.

Prince Abdulaziz detailed Saudi Arabia’s plans to progressively increase oil production starting in 2025, with significant increments in 2026 and 2027, reaching the target of 12.3 million barrels per day by 2028.

He also noted the Kingdom's commitment to renewable energy, aiming to save one million barrels of oil currently used for electricity generation by expanding renewable energy sources.

In the broader context of OPEC Plus decisions, the group agreed to gradually reduce production cuts by about 2 million barrels per day starting in October. Despite an initial drop in crude oil prices following the announcement, Prince Abdulaziz remains confident that the market will soon recognize the prudence of OPEC Plus policies.

 

US to sanction International Criminal Court

According to the Saudi Gazette, the US House of Representatives has voted to pass legislation that would sanction the International Criminal Court (ICC) after its prosecutor applied for arrest warrants against Israeli officials. The bill passed in the House, it is not expected to become law.

The move comes after The Hague-based court's prosecutor said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant should be arrested on charges relating to the war in Gaza.

The prosecutor is also seeking warrants for three leaders of Hamas.

The bill, proposed by pro-Israel Republicans, targets ICC officials involved in the case by blocking their entry to the United States.

On Tuesday, it passed with a majority of Republican support by a vote of 247-155. Two Republicans voted present and 42 pro-Israel Democrats crossed the aisle to back the legislation.

The legislation will likely be ignored by Democrats who control the US Senate, where it would have to pass before it could be signed into law by the president.

President Joe Biden has also indicated that he strongly opposes the bill and the administration has said it does not support the sanctions.

If it did become law, however, the legislation would also revoke any US visas held by ICC officials and restrict them from making property transactions in the US.

Some Senate Democrats, like John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, an outspoken supporter of Israel, have indicated they would support legislation sanctioning the court.

“I really would like to sanction the ICC for that. That was trash,” Fetterman said of the arrest warrants.

Congressman Chip Roy, a Texas Republican who introduced the legislation in the House, titled the Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act, has called the ICC “a massive threat to US sovereignty”.

The Democrats who opposed the measure largely support Israel, but have criticized Netanyahu's conservative government. Some Democratic opponents said it risked forcing the US to sanction ally nations that support the ICC.

When the measure cleared the House Rules Committee on Monday, Jim McGovern, a Massachusetts Democrat, said, “This bill makes a mockery of the rules-based international order that America helped build.”

The bill's passage comes shortly after Netanyahu was invited by US lawmakers to deliver a speech to Congress this summer, although the date of his speech has not been finalized.

Last month, ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan said he had "reasonable grounds" to believe that Netanyahu and Gallant, as well as Hamas’s Gaza leader Yahya Sinwar, military chief Mohammed Deif and political leader Ismail Haniyeh, bore "criminal responsibility" for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity during the war in Gaza.

It marked the first time the ICC has targeted the top leader of a close US ally.

"The ICC has to be punished for this action," Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson said on Tuesday. "We cannot allow this to stand."

"If the ICC was allowed to do this and go after the leaders of countries whose actions they disagree with, why would they not come after America?"

Israel’s government and Hamas reacted with outrage to Khan's announcement last month.

Netanyahu denounced the warrant applications against him and Gallant as a “moral outrage of historic proportions”.

Gallant accused the prosecutor of drawing a “despicable” parallel between Israel and Hamas and attempting to deny his country’s right to self-defense.

Hamas — which is proscribed as a terrorist organization by Israel, the US and other countries — demanded the cancellation of the warrant applications for its leaders and denounced what it called Khan's attempts “to equate the victim with the executioner".

If the ICC’s judges decide to issue the arrest warrants, it will be up to its 124 member states — including the UK and many other US allies — to decide whether or not to enforce them.

The White House said in a statement on Monday that while the ICC prosecutor’s warrant applications for Israeli leaders were "outrageous", it did not support sanctioning the ICC.

"There are more effective ways to defend Israel, preserve US positions on the ICC, and promote international justice and accountability, and the administration stands ready to work with the Congress on those options,” it said.

Created by a UN treaty in 2002, the ICC investigates and brings to justice those responsible for genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes, intervening when national authorities cannot or will not prosecute.

The US — like Israel — is not a member of the ICC and does not recognize its jurisdiction, but has backed its previous prosecutions and arrest warrants not related to Israel and the Palestinians.

In 2020 under the Trump administration, the US imposed sanctions on top ICC officials, including Khan’s predecessor, after the court began investigating alleged war crimes committed by the US and others in the Afghan conflict.

Recognition of Palestine State

An international media forum aimed at bolstering the drive for the global recognition of an independent Palestine State will be held on Sunday, June 09, 2024.

The Assistant Secretariat for Institutional Communication at the Muslim World League and the Union of News Agencies of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (UNA-OIC) will jointly organize remotely the event titled, “Media and the Palestinian right: Practical steps to build initiatives to recognize Palestine.”

The participants at the forum include officials of the news agencies from Islamic countries, international media unions, representatives of international media, a number of international organizations, and diplomatic, cultural and religious figures.

Muhammad Al-Yami, acting director general of the Federation of Organization of Islamic Cooperation News Agencies, said that the forum will present practical steps to enhance international media cooperation on the Palestinian issue by intensifying media coverage of announcements issued by countries around the world regarding recognition of Palestine, addressing it in a positive manner, and activating the role of media in detecting and preventing war crimes and crimes against humanity.

For his part, Yasser Al-Ghamdi, director general of content at the Muslim World League, said that the forum would put forward practical initiatives aimed at employing the media more effectively in a way fostering the rights of the Palestinian people as stipulated in international laws, including recognition of their independent state, and confronting media discourses that are hostile to these legitimate human rights, taking advantage of the current supportive global situation.

The forum aims to establish a practical basis for Islamic and international media cooperation in order to support initiatives to recognize the State of Palestine and enable the Palestinian people to achieve their legitimate rights, in addition to strengthening the role of the media in resolving international crises and working to spread a culture of peace and coexistence among peoples of various countries and different civilizations.

 

Iran: Contenders for presidential elections

Iran’s Guardian Council has been given five days to vet the candidates running for presidency after candidate registration for snap elections came to an end on Monday.

Over 80 people have been nominated including one former president, one former Parliament speaker, 38 former and current lawmakers, 13 ex-ministers, and three current ministers. At least four women are among the registered candidates. 

The election’s winner will replace Ebrahim Raisi, who embraced martyrdom during a helicopter crash in Iran’s northwestern mountainous region on May 19, 2024. 

In this report, we take a look at the most prominent figures who have signed up to contest the June 28, 2024 presidential elections. 

Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf

Qalibaf has dedicated decades to serving the Islamic Republic in various roles. He is a veteran and commander of the Iran-Iraq war, a former police chief, and former Tehran mayor. Since 2020, he has held the position of parliament speaker. He was elected speaker again in the new parliament last week.
Considered a neo-conservative, Qalibaf has run for president multiple times. In 2005, he secured over 4 million votes but lost in the first round. In 2013, he came in second place with 6,077,292 votes, losing to Hassan Rouhani. Qalibaf withdrew from the 2017 elections in support of Ebrahim Raisi. It is anticipated that Qalibaf will be qualified to run for president for a 4th time. 

Saeed Jalili

Jalili, a well-known conservative, held the position of Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council from 2007 to 2013. He currently serves as a member of the Expediency Council.

Jalili holds a significant role in Iran's foreign affairs. He served as Iran's lead nuclear negotiator and previously held the post of Deputy Foreign Minister for European and American Affairs.

Jalili has twice vied for the post of president. In the 2013 elections, he finished third, garnering 11.31% of the votes. While he initially fielded candidacy for the 2021 elections, he later withdrew in favor of Ebrahim Raisi. He is expected to be qualified to run for the post. 

Ali Ardeshir Larijani

Larijani has tried to appeal to both ends of Iran’s political spectrum in the past decades. He was the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council from August 2005 to October 2007. He also served as parliament speaker from 2008 to 2020. Since then, Larijani has been a member of the Expediency Council, where he served from 1997 to 2008.

Larijani ran for president in 2005 without much success. He registered for candidacy in 2021 but was disqualified by the Guardian Council. He seems to be hoping to face a different fate at the vetting stage this time. 

Ishaq Jahangiri

Jahangiri held the position of Vice President in Hassan Rouhani's government from 2013 to 2021. Before that, he served as the minister of industries and mines, the governor of Isfahan Province, and a member of parliament. 

A well-known reformist, Jahangiri ran for the presidency in 2017. Many observers believed that his decision to enter the race was a strategic move to bolster Rouhani during the debates as he withdrew before the voting began.

Looking ahead to the 2024 presidential elections, Jahangiri, seen as a technocrat, may face challenges in gaining approval from the Guardian Council due to past embezzlement and corruption allegations against his close family members.

Alireza Zakani

Zakani has served as the mayor of Tehran since 2021. He was a member of the parliament from 2004 to 2016 and again from 2020 to 2021, aligning with conservative political views.
Despite announcing his candidacy for the presidency in 2013 and 2017, Zakani was twice disqualified by the Guardian Council. In the 2021 presidential election, he initially ran but later withdrew in favor of Raisi.
Known for his fierce criticism of opponents during the 2021 presidential debates, Zakani earned the nickname "revolutionary tank." Observers speculate that there is a decent possibility the Guardian Council will approve his candidacy for the June 28 elections.

Abdolnaser Hemmati

Hemmati held the position of central banker from 2018 to 2021. Prior to this role, he served as the vice president of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting from 1989 to 1994, and as the chief of the Central Insurance of Iran from 1994 to 2006 and again from 2016 to 2018. 

Hemmati finished in third place during the 2021 presidential election. He is close to pro-reform groups.

A trained economist, Hemmati has received both backlash and praise for his time at the central bank. There is not much reason to believe he won’t be able to run for president a second time.  

Mohammad Mehdi Esmaili

Esmaili currently serves as the Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance, a position he has held since August 25, 2021. His extensive background encompasses roles such as deputy governor of Isfahan, director general of Supervision and Evaluation of IRIB Programs, and chairmanship of the Cultural and Social Commission of the Center for Strategic Studies of the Presidency.

Esmaili has been actively engaged in social and cultural activities for many years, with his involvement dating back to the 1990s when he began his cultural activities as an editor-in-chief of cultural publications.

The minister says he will continue Raisi’s endeavors if approved to compete for the presidency. 

Mehrdad Bazrpash

Bazrpash is a conservative politician and the current Minister of Transport and Urban Development, assuming office in December 2022.  He held the position of President of the Supreme Audit Court from 2020 to 2022.

Bazrpash has also served as a member of the Parliament and the CEO of two of Iran's largest automakers, SAIPA and Pars Khodro. 

The minister was one of the youngest figures registering for candidacy last week.  Though this is the first time he has attempted to run for president, analysts believe Bazrpash’s extensive career makes it highly possible that he will become an official candidate for the 2024 presidential elections.  

Masoud Pezeshkian

Pezeshkian is a reformist politician and cardiac surgeon. He currently represents Tabriz, Oskoo, and Azarshahr in the Parliament, where he served as First Deputy Speaker from 2016 to 2020. He previously served as Minister of Health from 2001 to 2005 under President Mohammad Khatami. 

Pezeshkian has often clashed with conservative politicians. Some of his remarks have been controversial and later found to be baseless.

While Pezeshkian is respected for his expertise in healthcare and education, observers speculate that his history of bipartisan conflict and lack of experience in operational fields may hinder his approval by the Guardian Council to run for the presidential post.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 

Ahmadinejad was president from 2005 to 2013.  Before his presidency, he served a brief two-year term as the mayor of Tehran. He is now a member of the Expediency Council. Ahmadinejad has tried hard to stay in the spotlight since his presidential term ended. 

Despite being considered a principlist by most, Ahmadinejad has adopted conflicting stances over the years. It is highly anticipated that his competence for the elections will not be approved. This prediction is based on the Guardian Council’s previous disqualification of Ahmadinejad when he attempted to run for president in 2021.

Abbas Ahmad Akhoundi 

Akhoundi served as the Minister of Transport and Urban Development from 2013 to 2018. He first entered government in 1993 as the Minister of Housing and Urban Development, making him one of the youngest ministers in Iran's modern history.

Akhoundi is a well-known pragmatist politician, but his fame mostly comes from controversies. During his tenure as the housing minister, he faced impeachment three times and submitted his resignation on three occasions. Critics have condemned him for his "liberal economic views" and for allegedly showing little concern for the less fortunate. Analysts believe he has little chance of gaining the approval of the Guardian Council in the looming presidential elections.

Mohammad Shariatmadari

Shariatmadari is a reformist figure who has held various ministerial positions in the government. He served as the Minister of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare and later as the Minister of Industry from 2017 to 2018. Additionally, Shariatmadari was the Minister of Commerce from 1997 to 2005 during President Khatami's administration.

Shariatmadari played a crucial role in managing Iran's relations with several countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Portugal, Spain, Zimbabwe, Uganda, Kenya, the Philippines, and Thailand for eight years. 

In 2013, Shariatmadari ran for presidency but ultimately withdrew his candidacy in support of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani before the voting commenced.

Ali Nikzad

Ali Nikzad is a conservative currently serving in the parliament. He served as deputy parliament speaker in the previous. He was elected deputy speaker in the new parliament.

Nikzad has an extensive background in executive management, having held positions such as Minister of Transport and Urban Development, Acting Minister of Communications and Information Technology, Acting Minister of Roads and Transportation, and Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the Tadbir Construction Development Group. He has also served as the governor of Ardabil.

Nikzad has not tried to run for the presidency in the past. He is expected to be confirmed to contest the presidential post. 

Sowlat Mortazavi

Mortazavi is a conservative politician who currently serves as Minister Labor and Social Welfare. He has held several high-ranking positions in government, including Vice President for Executive Affairs, Mayor of Mashhad, Mayor of Birjand, and head of Election Headquarters.
In June 2017, Mortazavi was suspended from his position as Mayor of Mashhad and all other political offices after he prevented an audit of the Mashhad municipality.
Analysts believe that even if Mortazavi is approved by the Guardian Council to run for president, there is little chance that he will ultimately manage to take office. 

Amir Hossein Qazizadeh Hashemi

Seyyed Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi currently serves as the Head of the Martyrs Foundation and Veterans Affairs, a position he has held since 2021. Qazizadeh holds conservative views and was appointed as vice president when President Raisi took office in 2021. 

Qazizadeh has a distinguished career in politics and medicine. He has served as a representative of Mashhad and Kalat in four terms of the Islamic Consultative Assembly and was an ENT surgeon before entering politics. 

Qazizadeh took part in the 2021 presidential elections and is anticipated to become an official candidate for the second time this year. 

 

India: Modi heads for reduced majority

According to Saudi Gazette, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's alliance may emerge victorious, but it is expected to fall well short of the landslide victory.

Modi’s BJP-led alliance is leading in more than 290 of 543 seats up for grabs, but for the first time in a decade the party looks set to fail to reach an outright majority by itself.

Many observers have been surprised by the strong opposition showing so far. The Congress and other allied opposition parties are projected to get more than 230 seats.

A slew of exit polls at the weekend showed the BJP-led NDA alliance on course for a super majority of two-thirds of parliament, which would have allowed it to make changes to the constitution.

Rahul Gandhi — of the opposition Congress party — told reporters on Tuesday that Modi and the BJP had been "punished" by voters at the ballot box.

Modi, who has retained his seat in Varanasi as he eyes a historic third consecutive term in office, had set a target of 370 seats for the BJP and 400 seats for his alliance. This was up from the 303 seats won by the BJP alone in the last general election in 2019.

Exactly how much of the vote has been counted so far remains unclear. However, as it stands, the BJP is not expected to get the 272 seats on its own that are needed for a majority in the lower house of parliament.

This means — for the first time — Modi would have to rely on smaller parties in the NDA to push through its agenda.

The election was seen by many as a referendum on Modi’s decade in office, during which he has transformed many aspects of life in India, so this would be a major upset. The mood in BJP offices around the country has been described by reporters as somber.

In contrast, at Congress headquarters, party workers have been celebrating the early results. The Indian markets, meanwhile, have been showing jitters — falling more than 2% — testifying to the fact that it’s not been a runaway result so far for the governing alliance.

An average 66% of voters took part in the election, official figures showed. It was the biggest such exercise the world has ever seen, with nearly a billion registered voters – about one in eight of the global population.

Voting was staggered over seven rounds between April 19 and June 01 for security and logistical reasons. Much of the election took place in extreme and deadly heat as temperatures in parts of India soared to nearly 50C.

The BJP and its rivals fought a fierce — at times vitriolic — campaign, with the prime minister denying that he was being divisive when he was accused by rivals of demonizing Muslims.

Modi toured the country, pointing to his achievements in areas such as delivering welfare schemes and raising India’s global profile.

Opposition parties highlighted cost of living issues, high unemployment — especially for young people — and fears that constitutional changes could disempower the disadvantaged. They also promised to stop India’s slide into autocracy.

A number of opposition leaders and government critics have been jailed in recent years, including Delhi’s chief minister Arvind Kejriwal who was taken into custody on corruption charges in April but later briefly released to allow him to campaign.

Indonesian ban on copper concentrate export

Indonesia, a major copper producer, has decided to postpone the start of a ban on its copper concentrate exports until the end of the year in a move that could deflate copper prices after they hit a record high in May.

Indonesia wants its local copper miners to build smelters and start processing the raw material locally, to boost the economy and offer higher-value copper products that are crucial for clean energy equipment and grid upgrades.

The top copper miners in Indonesia, Freeport Indonesia, and Amman Mineral, were expected to start copper processing at their respective new smelters in May 2024, and they had export permits for copper concentrate until May 31.

Indonesia’s Trade Ministry has been giving miners export permits to continue exporting copper concentrate until their newly built smelters ramp up production and reach full capacity.  

Indonesia has previously planned to impose a ban on exports of copper concentrate beginning on June 01, 2024. But the start of the ban will now be postponed to December 31, 2024, Bloomberg quoted Budi Santoso, director general for foreign trade at the Trade Ministry.

The delay of the start of export restrictions could weigh on sentiment in the copper market, where prices hit a record high this month, topping the US$11,000 per ton mark for the first time ever.

Despite weak fundamentals, especially in China, copper prices have rallied in recent weeks as many traders bet that a supply shortage could materialize soon on the market.

Copper stocks monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange continue to rise counter seasonally, hitting 322,000 tons, well above the 130,000 tons seasonal average, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank said.

“We have argued for some time that the scale of the move higher in copper had become detached from short-term fundamentals,” ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note.

“Robust Chinese refined copper output, seasonal higher SHFE copper stocks, and negative refined import premiums for China suggest a less supportive market in the near term.”

 

Anti Israel sentiment sweeping Egypt

Public sentiments against Israel have been growing among Egyptian people since the Tel Aviv launched war on the Gaza Strip on October 07, 2023.

The recent deaths of two Egyptian soldiers at the hands of Israeli troops have fueled considerable resentment against the Zionist regime. 

Abdallah Ramadan was killed in an exchange of fire between Egyptian and Israeli forces near the Rafah Border Crossing in the southern Gaza Strip on Monday. Ibrahim Islam Abdelrazzaq, the other soldier, later succumbed to the injuries he sustained in the gun battle.

Their deaths also sparked anger on social media platforms, the only window for freedom of speech in the Arab country. Many social media users called the soldiers martyrs and heroes who have sacrificed their lives to defend the country. 

They blamed the Egyptian army for not organizing full military funerals for the slain soldiers.  

This came amid heightened tensions between Cairo and Tel Aviv after the Israeli army took control of the Gazan side of the Rafah Crossing on May 07 following a ground assault on the city. 

More than half of Gaza’s 2.3 population had been crammed into Rafah before Israel carried out an incursion into the city and took control of a buffer zone along the border between the strip and Egypt.

According to the UN, over one million people have fled Gaza since Israel’s assault on the city nearly a month ago. 

Egypt has already issued a stern warning to Israel over the Rafah offensive amid reports that the regime seeks to forcibly transfer Gaza’s population to the Sinai Peninsula. 

The recent gun battle incident has plunged relations between Egypt and Israel to a new low.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Egypt told Israel it will not hesitate to respond militarily if it feels its security has been threatened.

Egypt says the Israeli military presence in the Gaza buffer zone appears to violate the Camp David Accords of 1978, the US-brokered agreements that led to a peace treaty between Cairo and Tel Aviv a year later. 

Following Israel’s incursion into Rafah, reports suggested that Egypt had threatened to suspend the treaty if the Rafah offensive continued. 

Egypt has also announced it will formally join the case filed by South Africa against Israel at the International Court of Justice, which accuses the regime of genocide in the Gaza Strip. 

Israel says its offensive in Rafah, which has sparked global condemnation, is in line with its efforts to achieve total victory over Hamas and destroy the resistance group. 

This dream has remained elusive in the face of growing support for the Palestinian resistance. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also been accused of seeking to prolong the war for his political purposes.  

In the meantime, the gun battle between the Israeli and Egyptian forces clearly indicates that the Netanyahu regime does not scruple to violate the accords that Tel Aviv signed with Cairo 45 years ago, for its military and political goals. 

Israel has also signed normalization deals with some Arab states over the recent past years. Palestinians have called these agreements a stab in the back of the Palestinian people and their cause. 

People in Egypt and other Arab countries that have normalized ties with Israel regard Israel as their number one enemy. 

Such resentment and Israel’s warmongering attitude toward Egyptian forces should serve as a red flag for states seeking to build relationships with the regime. 

Israel is an apartheid regime that has butchered more than 36,000 Palestinians in the nearly eight-month-old war on Gaza. Normalization deals cannot change the savage nature of Israel. As the saying goes, a leopard cannot change its spots!