India: Modi heads for reduced majority

According to Saudi Gazette, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's alliance may emerge victorious, but it is expected to fall well short of the landslide victory.

Modi’s BJP-led alliance is leading in more than 290 of 543 seats up for grabs, but for the first time in a decade the party looks set to fail to reach an outright majority by itself.

Many observers have been surprised by the strong opposition showing so far. The Congress and other allied opposition parties are projected to get more than 230 seats.

A slew of exit polls at the weekend showed the BJP-led NDA alliance on course for a super majority of two-thirds of parliament, which would have allowed it to make changes to the constitution.

Rahul Gandhi — of the opposition Congress party — told reporters on Tuesday that Modi and the BJP had been "punished" by voters at the ballot box.

Modi, who has retained his seat in Varanasi as he eyes a historic third consecutive term in office, had set a target of 370 seats for the BJP and 400 seats for his alliance. This was up from the 303 seats won by the BJP alone in the last general election in 2019.

Exactly how much of the vote has been counted so far remains unclear. However, as it stands, the BJP is not expected to get the 272 seats on its own that are needed for a majority in the lower house of parliament.

This means — for the first time — Modi would have to rely on smaller parties in the NDA to push through its agenda.

The election was seen by many as a referendum on Modi’s decade in office, during which he has transformed many aspects of life in India, so this would be a major upset. The mood in BJP offices around the country has been described by reporters as somber.

In contrast, at Congress headquarters, party workers have been celebrating the early results. The Indian markets, meanwhile, have been showing jitters — falling more than 2% — testifying to the fact that it’s not been a runaway result so far for the governing alliance.

An average 66% of voters took part in the election, official figures showed. It was the biggest such exercise the world has ever seen, with nearly a billion registered voters – about one in eight of the global population.

Voting was staggered over seven rounds between April 19 and June 01 for security and logistical reasons. Much of the election took place in extreme and deadly heat as temperatures in parts of India soared to nearly 50C.

The BJP and its rivals fought a fierce — at times vitriolic — campaign, with the prime minister denying that he was being divisive when he was accused by rivals of demonizing Muslims.

Modi toured the country, pointing to his achievements in areas such as delivering welfare schemes and raising India’s global profile.

Opposition parties highlighted cost of living issues, high unemployment — especially for young people — and fears that constitutional changes could disempower the disadvantaged. They also promised to stop India’s slide into autocracy.

A number of opposition leaders and government critics have been jailed in recent years, including Delhi’s chief minister Arvind Kejriwal who was taken into custody on corruption charges in April but later briefly released to allow him to campaign.

Indonesian ban on copper concentrate export

Indonesia, a major copper producer, has decided to postpone the start of a ban on its copper concentrate exports until the end of the year in a move that could deflate copper prices after they hit a record high in May.

Indonesia wants its local copper miners to build smelters and start processing the raw material locally, to boost the economy and offer higher-value copper products that are crucial for clean energy equipment and grid upgrades.

The top copper miners in Indonesia, Freeport Indonesia, and Amman Mineral, were expected to start copper processing at their respective new smelters in May 2024, and they had export permits for copper concentrate until May 31.

Indonesia’s Trade Ministry has been giving miners export permits to continue exporting copper concentrate until their newly built smelters ramp up production and reach full capacity.  

Indonesia has previously planned to impose a ban on exports of copper concentrate beginning on June 01, 2024. But the start of the ban will now be postponed to December 31, 2024, Bloomberg quoted Budi Santoso, director general for foreign trade at the Trade Ministry.

The delay of the start of export restrictions could weigh on sentiment in the copper market, where prices hit a record high this month, topping the US$11,000 per ton mark for the first time ever.

Despite weak fundamentals, especially in China, copper prices have rallied in recent weeks as many traders bet that a supply shortage could materialize soon on the market.

Copper stocks monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange continue to rise counter seasonally, hitting 322,000 tons, well above the 130,000 tons seasonal average, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank said.

“We have argued for some time that the scale of the move higher in copper had become detached from short-term fundamentals,” ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note.

“Robust Chinese refined copper output, seasonal higher SHFE copper stocks, and negative refined import premiums for China suggest a less supportive market in the near term.”

 

Anti Israel sentiment sweeping Egypt

Public sentiments against Israel have been growing among Egyptian people since the Tel Aviv launched war on the Gaza Strip on October 07, 2023.

The recent deaths of two Egyptian soldiers at the hands of Israeli troops have fueled considerable resentment against the Zionist regime. 

Abdallah Ramadan was killed in an exchange of fire between Egyptian and Israeli forces near the Rafah Border Crossing in the southern Gaza Strip on Monday. Ibrahim Islam Abdelrazzaq, the other soldier, later succumbed to the injuries he sustained in the gun battle.

Their deaths also sparked anger on social media platforms, the only window for freedom of speech in the Arab country. Many social media users called the soldiers martyrs and heroes who have sacrificed their lives to defend the country. 

They blamed the Egyptian army for not organizing full military funerals for the slain soldiers.  

This came amid heightened tensions between Cairo and Tel Aviv after the Israeli army took control of the Gazan side of the Rafah Crossing on May 07 following a ground assault on the city. 

More than half of Gaza’s 2.3 population had been crammed into Rafah before Israel carried out an incursion into the city and took control of a buffer zone along the border between the strip and Egypt.

According to the UN, over one million people have fled Gaza since Israel’s assault on the city nearly a month ago. 

Egypt has already issued a stern warning to Israel over the Rafah offensive amid reports that the regime seeks to forcibly transfer Gaza’s population to the Sinai Peninsula. 

The recent gun battle incident has plunged relations between Egypt and Israel to a new low.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Egypt told Israel it will not hesitate to respond militarily if it feels its security has been threatened.

Egypt says the Israeli military presence in the Gaza buffer zone appears to violate the Camp David Accords of 1978, the US-brokered agreements that led to a peace treaty between Cairo and Tel Aviv a year later. 

Following Israel’s incursion into Rafah, reports suggested that Egypt had threatened to suspend the treaty if the Rafah offensive continued. 

Egypt has also announced it will formally join the case filed by South Africa against Israel at the International Court of Justice, which accuses the regime of genocide in the Gaza Strip. 

Israel says its offensive in Rafah, which has sparked global condemnation, is in line with its efforts to achieve total victory over Hamas and destroy the resistance group. 

This dream has remained elusive in the face of growing support for the Palestinian resistance. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also been accused of seeking to prolong the war for his political purposes.  

In the meantime, the gun battle between the Israeli and Egyptian forces clearly indicates that the Netanyahu regime does not scruple to violate the accords that Tel Aviv signed with Cairo 45 years ago, for its military and political goals. 

Israel has also signed normalization deals with some Arab states over the recent past years. Palestinians have called these agreements a stab in the back of the Palestinian people and their cause. 

People in Egypt and other Arab countries that have normalized ties with Israel regard Israel as their number one enemy. 

Such resentment and Israel’s warmongering attitude toward Egyptian forces should serve as a red flag for states seeking to build relationships with the regime. 

Israel is an apartheid regime that has butchered more than 36,000 Palestinians in the nearly eight-month-old war on Gaza. Normalization deals cannot change the savage nature of Israel. As the saying goes, a leopard cannot change its spots!

 

Hunter trial begins after Trump conviction

According to Reuters, the criminal trial of Hunter Biden kicked off on Monday in federal court in Delaware as President Joe Biden's son faces gun charges in a historic case that begins four days after Donald Trump became the first former US president to be convicted.

Hunter Biden, 54, arrived at the courthouse for the first trial of the child of a sitting president, in which he will face three felony charges stemming from his purchase and possession of a revolver in 2018. He has pleaded not guilty. It is one of two criminal cases he faces, with federal tax charges brought separately in California.

First Lady Jill Biden, Hunter Biden's wife Melissa Cohen Biden and his half-sister Ashley Biden were in attendance at the trial in Wilmington, before US District Judge Maryellen Noreika.

"Jill and I love our son and we are so proud of the man he is today," Joe Biden said in a statement, adding that a lot of families have loved ones who have overcome addiction.

Trump was convicted by a jury in state court in New York on Thursday of 34 felony counts of falsifying documents to cover up hush money paid to a porn star to avoid a sex scandal shortly before the 2016 US election that put him in the White House. Trump is the Republican candidate challenging Joe Biden, a Democrat, in the November 05 US election.

Hunter Biden's trial gives Republicans a chance to shift attention away from Trump's legal troubles. Trump is due to be sentenced on July 11. He has pleaded not guilty in three other pending criminal cases.

In the case brought by US Special Counsel David Weiss, a Trump appointee, last September Hunter Biden was charged with lying about his use of illegal drugs when he bought a Colt Cobra revolver and with illegally possessing the weapon for 11 days in October 2018. Weiss, who has investigated Hunter Biden since at least 2019, also brought the tax charges.

If convicted on all charges in the Delaware case, Hunter Biden faces up to 25 years in prison, though defendants generally receive shorter sentences, according to the US Justice Department.

Hunter Biden spent the weekend with his father in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, with the pair biking and attending church together on Saturday. The president, who had been expected to depart Rehoboth Beach on Monday, traveled on Sunday evening to his home in Wilmington.

Noreika began screening potential jurors for their ability to commit to serving the length of the trial, which is expected to run through the end of next week.

"Do you think you can put aside your views on gun ownership," she asked a potential juror, who responded that she could be impartial.

Other potential jurors were asked about addiction, convictions and run-ins with law enforcement.

All 12 jurors must agree he is guilty beyond a reasonable doubt to convict.

The case is expected to center on Hunter Biden's years-long crack cocaine use and addiction, which he has discussed publicly and which was a prominent part of his 2021 autobiography, "Beautiful Things." He told Noreika at a hearing last year that he has been sober since the middle of 2019.

Prosecutors will seek to prove that Hunter Biden knew he was lying when he ticked the box for "no" next to a question on a federal gun purchase form asking if he was an unlawful user of a controlled substance.

Prosecution lawyers revealed in court filings that they may use details gleaned from Hunter Biden's phone and iCloud account, including photos of him smoking crack and messages with drug dealers. They said they may call as a witness his former wife Kathleen Buhle, who accused Hunter Biden in their 2017 divorce proceedings of squandering money on drugs, alcohol and prostitutes.

Hunter Biden's lawyers have indicated they may try to show he had completed a drug rehabilitation program before purchasing the gun and may have considered his answer on the gun purchase form to be truthful.

A plea agreement that would have resolved the gun and tax charges without prison time collapsed last year after Noreika questioned the extent of the immunity it extended to Biden. Hunter Biden's lawyers blamed Republican pressure for the failure of the plea agreement.

Noreika entered multiple orders over the weekend that were requested by prosecutors and that appeared to undercut Biden's legal strategy.

The judge said Biden's legal team could not introduce expert testimony that people suffering from substance abuse disorder might not consider themselves an addict.

That testimony could have helped Biden show that he did not know he was lying on the background check form. The government is required to prove that Biden knowingly lied.

Congressional Republicans spent years in vain trying to find evidence of a corrupt link between Hunter Biden's foreign business dealings, including work for Ukrainian energy company Burisma, and his father's political power.

Mexico to have first female president

Claudia Sheinbaum, a Nobel Prize-winning climate scientist, will become Mexico's first female president after winning a landslide election victory and promising to continue the work of her mentor and outgoing leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.

According to Reuters, Sheinbaum, 61, secured between 58.3% and 60.7% of votes, according to the INE electoral institute's rapid sample count released late Sunday night, the most support won by a candidate in a Mexican presidential election since the end of one-party rule in 2000.

Accepting her victory, Sheinbaum thanked Lopez Obrador, calling him "an exceptional, unique man who has transformed Mexico for the better."

Lopez Obrador doubled the minimum wage, reduced poverty and oversaw a strengthening peso and low levels of unemployment - successes that made him incredibly popular and helped Sheinbaum to victory. Analysts believe Sheinbaum will find it difficult to follow in his footsteps.

"We made history!" Sheinbaum told a crowd early Monday morning in the Zocalo square in the heart of Mexico City.

Her victory is a major step for Mexico, a country known for its macho culture and home to the world's second biggest Roman Catholic population, which for years pushed more traditional values and roles for women.

"It's a historic moment, especially for women," said Arlyn Rivera, a 24-year-old student, as she celebrated Sheinbaum's victory in the Zocalo plaza. "Mexican politics deserves more than what we have had in recent years."

"We made history!" Sheinbaum told a crowd early Monday morning in the Zocalo square in the heart of Mexico City.

Her victory is a major step for Mexico, a country known for its macho culture and home to the world's second biggest Roman Catholic population, which for years pushed more traditional values and roles for women.

"It's a historic moment, especially for women," said Arlyn Rivera, a 24-year-old student, as she celebrated Sheinbaum's victory in the Zocalo plaza. "Mexican politics deserves more than what we have had in recent years."

 

 

OPEC Plus extends deep oil production cuts

OPEC Plus agreed on Sunday to extend most of its deep oil output cuts for 2024 but to start phasing them out in 2025, as the group seeks to shore up the market amid tepid global demand growth, high interest rates and rising rival US production. OPEC Plus will hold its next meeting on December 01, 2024.

Oil prices trade near US$80 per barrel, below what many OPEC Plus members need to balance their budget. Worries over slow demand growth in top oil importer China have weighed on prices alongside rising oil stocks in developed economies.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, together known as OPEC Plus, have made a series of deep output cuts since late 2022.

OPEC Plus members are currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global demand.

The cuts include 2 million bpd by all OPEC Plus members, the first round of voluntary cuts by nine members of 1.66 million bpd, and the second round of voluntary cuts by eight members of 2.2 million bpd

OPEC Plus extended the first round of cuts until the end of 2025 from the end of 2024, the group said in a statement.

It also agreed to extend the third round of voluntary cuts into the third quarter of 2024, OPEC Plus sources said, adding that more details were being worked out and would be announced on Sunday.

The countries which have made voluntary cuts in the second round are Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and Gabon. The same countries except Gabon participated in the third round.

The group also agreed to allocate the United Arab Emirates a higher production quota of 3.5 million bpd in 2025, up from the current level of 2.9 million.

OPEC Plus also postponed the deadline for an independent assessment of its members' production capacities to the end of November 2025 from June 2024. The figures will be used as guidance for 2026 reference production levels.

 

 

What after verdict against Donald Trump?

The guilty verdict against former President Donald Trump is a historic milestone, marking the first time in US history that a former president has been held criminally accountable for his actions. This landmark decision has captured significant media attention and spurred widespread discussion about its implications.

However, amidst this focus, there are broader concerns regarding the actions of past and current US presidents in international conflicts. These concerns include illegal invasions, bombing of civilians, and ongoing military support to nations accused of committing war crimes. These critical issues have not received the same level of scrutiny.

Recently, CBS News correspondent Ed O’Keefe questioned National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby about the US administration's role in international conflicts, specifically the ongoing situation in Gaza. This questioning brought to light President Biden's recent three-point plan to address the conflict, which critics argue lacks measures to ensure Israeli compliance with ceasefire agreements and does not condition military aid on adherence to international law.

The call for greater accountability and a shift in US foreign policy is growing louder as the nation approaches its upcoming elections. There is a strong push among citizens to hold leaders accountable for their actions and to support campaigns that prioritize peace, justice, and humanitarian values. This reflects a deepening desire for substantial changes in both domestic and foreign policies to better align with ethical standards and international obligations.