Tanker owners await OPEC Plus announcement

OPEC Plus is scheduled to hold its next meeting on Sunday and its decisions on production strategy will have far reaching implications for the tanker owners.

According to Seatrade Maritime News, sector analysts say the picture in far from clear. In its weekly report, Gibson suggests that there could be three possible outcomes.

1- OPEC Plus members could decide to continue with the production cuts in place today.

2- They could implement further cuts, allowing oil producers outside the cartel to boost their market share.

3- They could decide to ease voluntary production cuts to meet the wishes of members hoping to boost oil revenue streams. 

OPEC Plus member states account for more than 40% of global crude tanker trade where rising oil demand in China is likely to underpin crude oil growth of 2.2 million barrels per day this year, according to the projections.

Crude demand is also climbing in other non-OECD countries, notably India, and other countries in Asia, Middle East, and Latin America, Gibson said.

However, the broker notes that few analysts are as bullish about oil demand prospects.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, reckons that likely growth could reach 1.1 million barrels per day, just half the OPEC Plus estimate. The IEA reckons that demand will grow more slowly now that the post-Covid surge has come to an end.

Meanwhile, declining oil demand in Europe is likely to reduce OECD demand which, the IEA suggests, could fall by 140,000 bpd this year. This is the result of the industrial downturn and a mild winter.

Gasoil demand in all three OECD regions over the first quarter fell by 330,000 bpd year-on-year.

Gibson points to lower oil prices, with Brent crude now trading at around US$81-83 a barrel, down from an average of US $89 in April.

These lower prices may suggest a current oversupply, a factor supported by weaker demand growth. These prevailing market fundamentals may deter OPEC Plus from loosening their production cuts too soon, Gibson said.  

Iran imports 4.6 tons gold bars

ran Customs Administration (IRICA) has reported that 4.6 tons of gold worth US$330 million were cleared through customs ports and imported into the country during the first two months of the current year.

The figure is 3.8 times more than the same period last year, when 1.2 tons of gold worth US$79 million were imported into the country, IRNA reported citing figures from IRICA.

Imam Khomeini Airport Customs was the origin of over 91% of gold imports in the first two months of this year.

Late in 2022, the Iranian government approved a plan to facilitate the import of gold as part of its anti-sanctions policy, allowing businesses to import gold to settle their export-related foreign exchange dues to the government.

According to a new directive from the IRICA, imports of gold are exempt from direct taxes, until further notice.

The directive states that the import of various types of gold will continue to be exempt from value-added tax (VAT) as well.

 

Gold price on the rise

Gold prices held steady on Tuesday as the dollar eased, while investors looked forward to key US inflation data that could offer clues on how soon the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates.

Spot gold price was flat at US$2,350.85 per ounce by 0350 GMT, after rising about 1% in the previous session. US gold futures rose 0.8% to US$2,352.00.

"A very strong dollar picture supported by a change in the US monetary policy stance where the Fed starts looking for evidence to kick start interest rate hikes instead of easing could be a major risk as we could see a further corrective move in spot gold," said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst for Asia Pacific at OANDA.

However, in the short term, spot gold is still more skewed towards the positive side rather than the negative side and US$2,310 is a key short-term support for this week, Wong added.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), the Fed's preferred inflation measure, is due on Friday.

Fed meeting minutes released last week showed that the policy response, for now, would involve maintaining the benchmark policy rate at its current level but also reflected discussions of possible further hikes.

Traders' bets indicated rising skepticism that the US central bank will lower rates more than once in 2024, currently pricing in about a 62% chance of a rate cut by November according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Bullion is known as an inflation hedge, but higher rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Vietnam's central bank will stop auctioning gold in the domestic market and launch a new measure to stabilize domestic prices, it said on Monday.

 

US Memorial Day: Remembering Cost of War

Memorial Day in the United States is traditionally a time to honor the men and women who have died in military service. However, it is crucial to use this day to acknowledge the broader and often overlooked consequences of war. We must amplify the voices that expose the true and complete cost of conflict, recommit to peace, and call for an end to the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

What is the point of Memorial Day if not to remember all those who suffer in wars and to renew our commitment to peace?

It is imperative to draw the attention of US citizens to the fact that soldiers are far from the only ones who pay the ultimate sacrifice. The horrifying and unforgettable images emerging from Rafah demand our attention and compassion.

Modern wars have resulted in far more civilian casualties than military deaths. The current situation in Gaza is not merely a war; it is a genocide carried out by an apartheid state, funded and supplied by the United States.

Since the latest Israeli assault on Gaza began, more than 36,000 Palestinians have been killed, including at least 15,000 children. These numbers are staggering and must not be forgotten.

We must also remember the estimated 300,000 to 500,000 Iraqi civilians who lost their lives during the US invasion and occupation that began 21 years ago.

Similarly, over 70,000 Afghans were killed during America's so-called war on terrorism. The uncounted and unknown casualties of US imperialism through the ages add to this grim toll.

The losses suffered in wars cannot be measured merely in numbers. Each life taken represents shattered dreams, unfulfilled promises, and untapped human potential. War devastates families, communities, and entire nations. But perhaps the greatest loss is our humanity, which is eroded every time we allow such violence to continue.

Three months ago, Aaron Bushnell performed an extreme act of resistance, sacrificing his life to protest the genocide in Gaza, stating that "this is what our ruling class has decided will be normal." We must reject this normalization of violence and refuse to let it become our reality.

Let this Memorial Day be a reminder of all who suffer and die in conflicts worldwide. Let it inspire us to seek peace, justice, and humanity in our actions and policies.

Does the next British leader have a plan?

On May22, 2024, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called snap elections for July 04, 2024. Polls suggest that the opposition Labour Party—led by the centrist MP Keir Starmer—will sweep to victory, putting an end to 14 years of Conservative leadership. But what are Keir Starmer’s economic policies?

Thus far, Starmer has focused on small-scale policy pledges, such as hiring extra teachers, cutting hospital waiting times, and improving border security—a cautious approach to policymaking that contrasts with the large challenges the country faces.

Sluggish economic growth

One key challenge for Starmer will be improving Britain’s economy. After easily and consistently outperforming the Euro area economy in the years prior to the 2016 Brexit vote, the Britain has underperformed since. This is despite the tailwind of a population which has boomed by around 2.5 million in the intervening years on surging immigration from outside the EU.

Analysts forecast Britain GDP growth to roughly track Euro area GDP growth over our forecast horizon to 2028. Given higher population growth in the UK, this means the Britain’s GDP per capita growth will actually lag behind that of the Euro area. Starmer has pledged to make Britain the G7’s top-performing economy; but analysts see little chance of this happening. That said, the labor market will be one saving grace: The unemployment rate is hovering close to 4% and should remain there in the coming years, which would be below the G7 average.

Strained public finances

Government finances are likely to present Starmer with further difficulties. Weak growth, together with rising spending pressure from an aging population and the Covid-19 pandemic, has translated into a large budget deficit and stubbornly high public debt in recent years. And public debt is set to stay above 100% of GDP over our forecast horizon.

This will likely tie Starmer’s hands and prevent lavish new spending commitments—particularly given the still-fresh memory of the ill-fated attempt by former PM Liz Truss to play fast and loose with fiscal discipline, which resulted in a sharp spike in market interest rates.

Damaged cross-Channel trade ties

Finally, Starmer will have to grapple with the Britain-EU relations. The Britain-EU trade deal has led to a raft of non-tariff barriers on both goods and services trade with Europe which have hampered both British exports and investment into the country.

While Sunak has succeeded in making ties with Brussels more cordial following persistent political frictions under the premiership of Boris Johnson, the trade deal remains threadbare. A Labour government would likely look to work more closely with the bloc in certain economic sectors, but has pledged not to region the EU, the Single Market, or the customs union, which will continue to hamper exports and investment ahead.

Insight from Analysts

 “Much will depend on the size of Labour’s potential majority: a comfortable majority would make some of the party’s policies, such as overhauling the labour market, realistic and actionable.

However, few of the Labour members of parliament (MPs) that will end up in government as junior ministers have experience in government. Labour will face significant challenges, given that many of the major issues facing the next administration will require large amounts of money to fix (including the National Health Service). Its period in office is therefore likely to be challenging.”

Economic situation

 “The Britain economy has underperformed the US and the Eurozone since the start of the pandemic. The slump in 2020 was deeper and the subsequent recovery levelled off in 2022 even more so than in the Eurozone in the wake of the surge in energy and food prices. The strong Q1 GDP data partly correct an unexpectedly weak finish to 2023. The sharp 2.3% drop in imports, which boosted the net trade component in Q1, was probably a one-off. However, the data also suggest that the UK economy may have started to make up some of the lost ground.

 

 

 

Iranian oil industry achievements under Raisi

In a talk show on national TV, Iranian Oil Minister Javad Oji, explained how much was the late president, Ebrahim Raisi serious about developing oil industry projects.

Oji said that since the victory of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the country had witnessed desirable achievements in the oil sector but none of them were comparable with the great steps taken during the ruling of the 13th administration; which took office in August 2021 under the leadership of President Raisi. 

“Before we come together in 13th administration, my knowledge of the late president Ayatollah Raisi was limited to his activities at holy shrine of Imam Reza but it culminated when he was elected as Iranian president and formed the cabinet in which I was appointed as the minister of petroleum,” Oji said.

The minister said, during the tenure of the 13th administration led by Ebrahim Raisi as the president “we witnessed great leaps forward in view of implementation of oil industry projects, developing upstream and downstream projects including developing oil and gas fields, relying on domestic capabilities, rising oil exports and specifically paying attention to social responsibility.”

Raisi insisted on people’s participation in the implementation of oil industry projects, he said adding “in the first months of the 13th administration taking office, we travelled to oil-rich regions, where by looking at flares the president got worried and ordered removing gas flares by collecting the associated gases.”

He continued: we followed the president demand seriously so that at the end of last Iranian calendar year, 1402, March 20, 2024, we succeeded in collecting 11.5 million cubic meters of associated gases per day which is going to rise to 30 million cubic meters a day at the end of current Iranian calendar year on March19, 2025.

He also said energy imbalances, optimizing energy use and joint oil and gas fields development were among the main concerns of the president so that in every meeting we had he was seeking briefing about the progress of the oil industry projects, insisting on rising production and exports, creating jobs as well as oil revenues situation.

According to Oji, the president, in all his working tours, which went beyond 10 visits to oil industry installations, was very willing to talk with experts insisting that the petroleum ministry should do its best to persuade Iranian elites and experts not to leave the country and it was after his emphasize on the issue that we could absorb more than 900 graduates of Petroleum University of Technology.

He further noted that a great part of Iran’s success to raise oil exports was due to his trips to foreign countries, in which he was presenting Iranian capabilities, trying to build confidence in relations with other countries.

The Oil Ministry was the most successful department of the administration in view of attracting foreign investment in Raisi’s administration, he said, adding the president was very insistent that selling materials as a row should be stopped.

“The 13th administration could raise oil exports by 2.5 times despite harsh sanctions.” Oji concluded.

 

Call for ending attacks on ships in Red Sea

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) on Friday demanded an immediate cessation of hostilities against ships and seafarers navigating through the strategic Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The call comes in response to increasing maritime threats in these crucial waterways.

The IMO's Maritime Safety Committee adopted a resolution in London condemning these acts as "illegal and unjustifiable," highlighting their direct threat to the freedom of navigation and the substantial disruptions they cause to regional and global trade.

This resolution marks the first such formal stance by the IMO member states since the seizure of the MV Galaxy Leader cargo ship by the Yemeni Houthi group in November in the Red Sea.

"Since then, around 50 dangerous and destabilizing maritime attacks have occurred, resulting in the loss of several seafarers' lives, while the 25 crew members of the Galaxy Leader remain hostages," the agency reported, calling for their "immediate and unconditional release."

The resolution criticized the Houthis' actions for endangering lives, impeding vital humanitarian aid deliveries, increasing the cost of such aid, and destabilizing the region. It also emphasized the importance of resolving the crisis through peaceful dialogue and diplomacy.

IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez appealed to governments and relevant organizations to assist affected seafarers and to intensify efforts to resolve the crisis. He highlighted the Red Sea's significance as one of the world’s busiest maritime routes, especially for oil and fuel shipments.