After six months of brutal fighting and the withdrawal of
the Israeli army from the southern Gaza city of Khan Yunis, multiple Israeli
and western commentators have argued that Hamas is winning the war and making
military history in the process.
Sir Tom
Phillips, a former British diplomat who served as Ambassador to Israel and the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, wrote on April 09 2024 in Haaretz that
Hamas had succeeded in its objective of obtaining the release of as many
Palestinians held in Israeli prisons as possible, and of re-asserting
themselves as a force to be reckoned with.
He added that Hamas had survived the IDF onslaught for
longer than any war Israel has ever fought, and in doing so, they have
thoroughly dented Israel’s much vaunted deterrent status. In brief, and with
daunting potential long-term consequences for Israel, the IDF no longer looks
invincible.
Hamas
has blocked a potential normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel,
which looked inevitable before the war began on October 07, 2023, and put the
Palestinian issue back squarely on the international map after years of the
Palestinian Authority (PA) failing to do so.
A final victory for Hamas, Phillip notes, is the “head-spinning
speed of Israel’s post October 07 delegitimization in the eyes of many in the
world.”
On April 08, Israeli journalist Amos Harel wrote in Haaretz that
Israel’s primary goals in Khan Yunis haven’t been achieved.
Following the withdrawal of the 98th Division from the
southern Gaza city, Harel noted that the Israeli army’s two goals were the
capture of top Hamas officials in Gaza and the rescue of the Israeli captives
currently held by the Palestinian Resistance in Gaza.
“The public should be told the truth. The enormous death and
destruction the IDF is leaving behind in Gaza, alongside quite a few losses on
our side, aren’t currently bringing us any closer to achieving the war’s
goals,” he concluded.
In
an analysis in Yedioth Ahronoth, Israeli political analyst Nadav
Eyal explained that Israel had wished to restore its power of deterrence,
eliminate Hamas, and free the captives held by Hamas in Gaza. But none of these
objectives have been achieved.
“Israel’s failure is not based on presenting the goals of
the war – which were fully supported by all Western countries. The failure lies
entirely in the execution,” Eyal wrote, adding that war is not won just by
killing. A complementary political act is needed.
The first failure, according to the report, was the civilian
suffering in Gaza.
“Those who want to overthrow the rule of Hamas in Gaza do
not conduct a Roman-style revenge campaign; carry out a protective wall or
retaliatory action as if it were the 1950s.”
The Israeli commentator also blamed Israeli Prime Minister
Netanyahu for his attitude towards Washington.
“Netanyahu’s public and evil confrontation with the Biden
administration only emphasized Israel’s weakness,” he said.
Eyal also noted that Israel had become isolated in the
international community and that even its allies in Washington and Brussels
were beginning to turn against it.
“Not only has Israel lost support in most of the West, and
is very close to an arms embargo from Europe, even among its great ally, the
tectonic plates are in motion.”
On March 27, Israeli intelligence officials also noted the
change in Washington. They told The Telegraph that the Israeli
government’s stated goal to eradicate Hamas in the Gaza Strip has become
unachievable after the US turned its back on Tel Aviv by abstaining during a UN
Security Council (UNSC) vote earlier in the week.
“If you’d asked me this a month ago, I would definitely say
yes we can eliminate Hamas because, at that time, the Americans were backing
Israel,” an Israeli intelligence official told the British daily, reportedly
suggesting this assessment had now changed.
The US doesn’t support going into Rafah, which they did
before, so the cards right now are not good, meaning Israel has to do something
dramatic and drastic to change the momentum and climate, highlighting that pressure
is mounting on Israel to reach some sort of a deal, which means Hamas could
survive. Both Hamas and the Iranians are playing on that.”
According
to the official, the belief inside the Israeli security apparatus is that Hamas
is focused on surviving until the summer, when the US election campaign will go
into full gear.
Speaking on the Turkish channel Haber Global, military
analyst and retired colonel Eray Gucuer also suggested Hamas is winning the war
while discussing the Israeli withdrawal from Khan Yunis ahead of a presumed
assault on Rafah.
“If the
Israeli army really is in a situation where it could not attack Rafah except by
withdrawing its brigade from Khan Yunis, this means that it effectively lost
the ground war.”
“Israel, in this war, almost completely destroyed Gaza and
killed thousands of civilians. However, the Qassam Brigades still exist. Until
this moment, it has military superiority on the ground … no one with military
experience can hide his admiration for the amazing tactics adopted by
Al-Qassam… Indeed, they are writing history.”
“Imagine, since the beginning of the war in Gaza and until
today, we still hear about Beit Hanoun and Ben Lahia, Al-Nasr neighborhood, and
Al-Zaytoun neighborhood. Why? Because the Qassam operatives invented a tactic
for the first time in my life that I have seen in the history of guerrilla
wars,” he concluded.
Courtesy: Information clearing House