According to, Alan Paul Varghese, an independent foreign
affairs and geopolitical analyst based in New Delhi, it became clear that India
continues its alignment with the West and Israel.
At the BRICS Plus extraordinary meeting hosted by South
Africa on the conflicts in West Asia, it became clear that India continues its
alignment with the West and Israel. While most of the members reiterated how
Israel’s settler colonialism is the root cause of the conflict, Indian external
affairs minister S. Jaishankar stood firm on blaming Hamas. He also stated that
there can be no compromise to terrorism.
The Modi doctrine of diplomacy for the past nine years has
stagnated India’s internal reputation and aspirations. Narendra Modi had
skipped the online meeting due to the election campaigns in poll-bound states.
Though the officials stated that Modi was preoccupied with
the campaign schedules, it is obvious that the outcome of the extraordinary
meeting was anticipated.
In a close examination of recent diplomatic events by India,
one can categorically see how the Modi doctrine is failing to capture its
promised achievements.
While
the economy is trailing and seldom benefitted through trade agreements, the
only resort of Narendra Modi and Jaishankar was their self-projection as the
leader of the Global South.
It is noteworthy that the extraordinary meeting succeeded
the Voice of Global South Summit which had references to ongoing genocide in
Palestine.
BRICS
Plus comprising of mostly countries from the global south has proved that India
is isolated for its stand on the Israel-Palestine issue. This isolation has a
serious impact on the future geo-political prospects of India.
In evaluating the BRICS extraordinary meeting Iran urged the
members to cease economic and military interactions with Israel. Vladimir Putin
who attended the meeting criticized the US monopolization of mediation efforts.
He urged the international community to unite in an effort to achieve a speedy
de-escalation and a ceasefire in Gaza, as well as a political solution to the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and added that the BRICS nations and regional
actors could play a leading role in this process.
This can be a possible indication of Argentina’s
disassociation from BRICS as Milie, a far-right economist is a proactive
supporter of dollarizing the economy.
Xi Jinping in his address said “The root cause of the Palestinian-Israeli
situation is the fact that the right of the Palestinian people to statehood,
their right to existence, and their right of return have long been ignored. It
has been often reiterated that the only viable way to break the cycle of Palestinian-Israeli
conflict lies in the two-state solution, in the restoration of the legitimate
national rights of Palestine, and in the establishment of an independent State
of Palestine. There can be no sustainable peace and security in the Middle East
without a just solution to the question of Palestine. China calls for early
convening of an international peace conference that is more authoritative to
build international consensus for peace and work toward an early solution to
the question of Palestine that is comprehensive, just, and sustainable.”
Saudi Arabia called for the cessation of arms and ammunition
supplies to Israel.
Argentina’s newly elected President Javier Milie condemned
Hamas and demanded that Israel must adhere to international humanitarian law.
India had three diplomatic events before this extraordinary
meeting. The ICC World Cup, Voice of Global South Summit, and ministerial
dialogue between India and Australia.
During the World Cup Modi tried for cricket diplomacy by
inviting his counterparts of the UK and Australia. Though Rishi Sunak expressed
his readiness, due to some reasons he didn’t make his presence.
A sideline discussion with Anthony Albanese prior to the 2+2
ministerial dialogue was expected to boost talks in favour of India. But Albanese
prioritized the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit over his QUAD partner.
The core weakness of Modi doctrine – neglecting the
neighbours was visible in the failed innings of cricket diplomacy. In the
interview given to The Hindu, Australian finance minister Penny Wong in reply
to a question on whether India’s urge to take action against the Khalistan
group was fulfilled, she said “ ….In relation to that I’d say is we respect
your sovereignty. And we also are very clear about the line between peaceful
protests, freedom of expression, and violence and vandalism.”
She has
already clarified that the cooperation with India is for the balancing of power
to counter China. The failed cricket diplomacy, Australia’s stand on the
India-Canada standoff, and the statements by Wong proved how India has turned
into a vassal of the Western countries under the Modi doctrine.
The current stand of the union government has isolated India
in the Global South. Meanwhile, China is on the verge of emerging as the new
dominant player in West Asian geopolitics. In the background of the Saudi-Iran
peace deal that was brokered by China, Arab countries held direct talks with
Beijing.
The officials holding meetings with China were from Saudi
Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Indonesia, Palestinian authorities, and the Organization
of Islamic Cooperation, among others. Succeeding this South Africa, one of the
strongest allies of China in the African continent hosted the virtual meeting
of BRICS. Joining the dots, China is set to emerge in the role of mediator.
Arab countries met Chinese diplomats to give a strong message to the USA too.
With the BRICS extraordinary meeting, China was able to
successfully entrap the United States between the Zionist pressure for
continuous aggression and the Middle East pressure for a ceasefire. One will
not be mistaken to assume that China is working to diminish the outreach of US
in West Asia.
Though,
a joint declaration was not issued from the statements of various leaders
except Jaishankar all others demanded a ceasefire and held Israel’s settler
colonialism as the reason for the conflict. They endorsed the initiatives of
Arab countries for establishing peace. South African parliament has voted for
the closure of the Israel Embassy in Pretoria.
Undoubtedly India has trailed from its glorious legacy of
being the voice of global south. China emphasized on the strategy that India
forgot during the Modi era. In the past, India’s diplomacy focused on creating
a New Economic World Order based on the liberation of Asian, African, and Latin
American countries from neo-colonialism. The Non-Aligned Movement led by India
comprised countries that gained independence from colonial regimes.
These were not powerful countries but had the potential of
multiple dimensions. It was never the service or submission to power that
helped India and NAM to develop their influences. China has built deep economic
cooperation with African and Asian post-colonial countries than with the
Western countries.
Bharath Karnad assessed Modi’s foreign policy as “bowing to
the powerful and bullying the weak.” Such policies only result in the rupture
of the country’s power.
In an article written by Rahul Nath Choudhary in East Asia
Forum, he noted that the majority of free trade agreements signed by India
failed to cater better results. In the period between 2017 and 2022, India’s
exports to its FTA partners increased by 31%, while its imports increased by
82%. India’s FTA utilization remains very low at around 25%, while
utilization for developed countries typically is 70% to 80%.
The
alternative for this – bilateral agreements and multilateral forums can be
achieved if India could revamp another NAM based on multipolarity and
de-dollarization. If the escalation continues in West Asia the future of
India’s Middle East Corridor will be forever at a crossroad. Even a peace
treaty based on the intervention of China and BRIC countries will bring the
same fate.
