The NATO summit this week delivered yet another blow to
Russian President Vladimir Putin, with allies standing as united as
ever against his war in Ukraine while announcing efforts to expand the alliance
and boost defense spending.
The most punishing setback for Putin came on the eve of the
summit, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hashed out a deal to
admit Sweden into NATO after more than a year of resistance.
Erdoğan’s reversal not only puts the gears in place to
expand the borders of the western security alliance — it also signals the
Turkish leader is moving closer to the west and away from Putin.
“He’s no longer interested in being dependent on Putin
economically and strategically,” said Asli Aydıntaşbaş, a visiting fellow at
Brookings Institution with the Turkey Project. “I think Russians are upset. I
think the Kremlin is very upset.”
It also helped repair Turkey’s strained relations with its
NATO allies and gave President Biden a major win heading into the
high-profile summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
At the
end of the summit, Biden declared that NATO was more united than ever in its
history.
“We will not waver,” Biden affirmed in the Wednesday speech.
“Our commitment to Ukraine will not weaken. We will stand for liberty and
freedom today, tomorrow and for as long as it takes.”
Erdoğan’s Sweden approval also came just days after he freed
Ukrainian fighters from the Azov regiment, a move that deeply angered the
Kremlin because the prisoners of war were supposed to remain in Turkey until
the end of the war.
Aydıntaşbaş
said the prisoner release is an even bigger blow than the Sweden deal, the
latter of which was likely anticipated. She assessed the Turkish leader has now
sensed Putin has become weak — especially after the Wagner revolt — and is
drifting closer to Biden.
“I wouldn’t call this a reset, but it lays the groundwork
for a reset between the West and Turkey and that would be a big deal,” she
added. “Because at the end of the day, Turkey is NATO’s second largest army and
its drift away from the West has been a big issue.”
Aydıntaşbaş, however, acknowledged Erdoğan often makes deals
for transactional benefits, and since he does not view the Ukraine war as a
binary issue, he is likely to continue to play both sides.
Erdoğan only backed Sweden after he extracted concessions
from the West, including enhanced counterterrorism operations, more arms sales
and Swedish support for Turkey’s European Union membership hopes.
Erdoğan may also have won a deal to purchase long-awaited
F-16 jets from Washington to modernize his air force, as the US announced the
paused sale was moving forward a day after the Sweden agreement.
At the summit, Western allies also agreed to boost defense
spending levels, a commitment that, if adhered to, would strengthen the
alliance and its support for Ukraine. Members are now pledging to spend a
minimum of 2 percent of gross domestic product on military resources and
security.
NATO has for years tried to get the commitment to stick, to
no avail. But Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said 11 allies have
now reached or exceeded the target, while overall spending by Canada and Europe
increased by 8.3% this past year.
“This is the biggest increase in decades,” Stoltenberg
said. “And we expect this number will rise substantially next year.”
Putin
secured a minor victory in the dashing of Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, with GOP
presidential contender and former United Nations ambassador Nikki
Haley saying that Biden made Putin’s day by refusing to commit to
Kyiv’s future NATO membership.
But the US and Ukraine sought to minimize the damage at the
end of the summit.
NATO
decided against fast-tracking Kyiv into the alliance or setting a clear
timeline for membership, a move Ukraine says will only embolden Russia and
allow Moscow to use inclusion into the alliance as a bargaining chip in peace
talks.
But the alliance still took steps toward admitting Ukraine,
removing a procedural hurdle, establishing a NATO-Ukraine council and affirming
that Kyiv is closer than ever to membership.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had
expressed disappointment in the membership process just a day earlier, said he
held a powerful meeting with Biden Wednesday.
“The meeting was at least twice as long as planned, and it
was as meaningful as it needed to be,” Zelensky tweeted. “If the protocol
had not stopped the meeting, we would have talked even longer.”
NATO allies this week also announced big steps toward
supporting Ukraine in the long run, putting a damper on Moscow’s hopes of
weakening Western support for the war.
A
coalition of 11 NATO countries set a date for F-16 training in
August for Ukrainian pilots; France confirmed the shipment of much-needed
long-range missiles for Ukraine; and the Group of Seven (G7) economic and
political bloc announced a long-term security commitment for Kyiv.
Russia has tried to downplay the news coming out of the
summit. Moscow’s Foreign Intelligence Service chief told state-run media
outlet TASS that the summit did not bring “any surprise to Russia.”
But Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign
Relations, said Russia’s attempts to weaken the narrative have largely failed.
“From a Russian propaganda perspective, it makes sense to
downplay this as much as possible,” she said. “But the facts just speak against
Russia, especially the long-term commitment of G7 members to deter Russia and
to erode the optimism in the Kremlin [hoping] everyone in Europe gets tired.”
The Vilnius summit showed allies are standing by Ukraine,
even as there are concerns about a lagging counteroffensive launched in early
June and the prospect of a longer war, Fix said.
“At the beginning of this year, the messaging was all about
Ukraine [and] what it means for this one counteroffensive this year,” she
continued. “And I think that was recognized as a bit of a trap.”
This is “sort of an attempt to make clear that the
commitment is not only until the end of this year, but the commitment will also
extend to the next year.”
