The most punishing setback for Putin came on the eve of the summit, when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan hashed out a deal to admit Sweden into NATO after more than a year of resistance.
Erdoğan’s reversal not only puts the gears in place to expand the borders of the western security alliance — it also signals the Turkish leader is moving closer to the west and away from Putin.
“He’s no longer interested in being dependent on Putin economically and strategically,” said Asli Aydıntaşbaş, a visiting fellow at Brookings Institution with the Turkey Project. “I think Russians are upset. I think the Kremlin is very upset.”
It also helped repair Turkey’s strained relations with its NATO allies and gave President Biden a major win heading into the high-profile summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.
At the end of the summit, Biden declared that NATO was more united than ever in its history.
“We will not waver,” Biden affirmed in the Wednesday speech. “Our commitment to Ukraine will not weaken. We will stand for liberty and freedom today, tomorrow and for as long as it takes.”
Erdoğan’s Sweden approval also came just days after he freed Ukrainian fighters from the Azov regiment, a move that deeply angered the Kremlin because the prisoners of war were supposed to remain in Turkey until the end of the war.
Aydıntaşbaş said the prisoner release is an even bigger blow than the Sweden deal, the latter of which was likely anticipated. She assessed the Turkish leader has now sensed Putin has become weak — especially after the Wagner revolt — and is drifting closer to Biden.
“I wouldn’t call this a reset, but it lays the groundwork for a reset between the West and Turkey and that would be a big deal,” she added. “Because at the end of the day, Turkey is NATO’s second largest army and its drift away from the West has been a big issue.”
Aydıntaşbaş, however, acknowledged Erdoğan often makes deals for transactional benefits, and since he does not view the Ukraine war as a binary issue, he is likely to continue to play both sides.
Erdoğan only backed Sweden after he extracted concessions from the West, including enhanced counterterrorism operations, more arms sales and Swedish support for Turkey’s European Union membership hopes.
Erdoğan may also have won a deal to purchase long-awaited F-16 jets from Washington to modernize his air force, as the US announced the paused sale was moving forward a day after the Sweden agreement.
At the summit, Western allies also agreed to boost defense spending levels, a commitment that, if adhered to, would strengthen the alliance and its support for Ukraine. Members are now pledging to spend a minimum of 2 percent of gross domestic product on military resources and security.
NATO has for years tried to get the commitment to stick, to no avail. But Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said 11 allies have now reached or exceeded the target, while overall spending by Canada and Europe increased by 8.3% this past year.
“This is the biggest increase in decades,” Stoltenberg said. “And we expect this number will rise substantially next year.”
Putin secured a minor victory in the dashing of Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, with GOP presidential contender and former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley saying that Biden made Putin’s day by refusing to commit to Kyiv’s future NATO membership.
But the US and Ukraine sought to minimize the damage at the end of the summit.
NATO decided against fast-tracking Kyiv into the alliance or setting a clear timeline for membership, a move Ukraine says will only embolden Russia and allow Moscow to use inclusion into the alliance as a bargaining chip in peace talks.
But the alliance still took steps toward admitting Ukraine, removing a procedural hurdle, establishing a NATO-Ukraine council and affirming that Kyiv is closer than ever to membership.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who had expressed disappointment in the membership process just a day earlier, said he held a powerful meeting with Biden Wednesday.
“The meeting was at least twice as long as planned, and it was as meaningful as it needed to be,” Zelensky tweeted. “If the protocol had not stopped the meeting, we would have talked even longer.”
NATO allies this week also announced big steps toward supporting Ukraine in the long run, putting a damper on Moscow’s hopes of weakening Western support for the war.
A coalition of 11 NATO countries set a date for F-16 training in August for Ukrainian pilots; France confirmed the shipment of much-needed long-range missiles for Ukraine; and the Group of Seven (G7) economic and political bloc announced a long-term security commitment for Kyiv.
Russia has tried to downplay the news coming out of the summit. Moscow’s Foreign Intelligence Service chief told state-run media outlet TASS that the summit did not bring “any surprise to Russia.”
But Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Russia’s attempts to weaken the narrative have largely failed.
“From a Russian propaganda perspective, it makes sense to downplay this as much as possible,” she said. “But the facts just speak against Russia, especially the long-term commitment of G7 members to deter Russia and to erode the optimism in the Kremlin [hoping] everyone in Europe gets tired.”
The Vilnius summit showed allies are standing by Ukraine, even as there are concerns about a lagging counteroffensive launched in early June and the prospect of a longer war, Fix said.
“At the beginning of this year, the messaging was all about Ukraine [and] what it means for this one counteroffensive this year,” she continued. “And I think that was recognized as a bit of a trap.”
This is “sort of an attempt to make clear that the commitment is not only until the end of this year, but the commitment will also extend to the next year.”
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