Friday 28 July 2023

Can Wang Yi improve US-China relations?

According to Nikkei Asia, Chinese President Xi Jinping's decision to recall senior diplomat Wang Yi to head the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reflects a misstep, but it could be a crucial move ahead of US-China summit in November 2023.

"Qin Gang's fall from grace was as unexpected and abrupt as his elevation over the heads of many experienced diplomats," said Daniel Russel, a former diplomat who now is an expert at the Asia Society Policy Institute, United States. "Since both moves are attributed to China's leader, this episode will be seen as an embarrassing lapse in judgment at the top."

By and large, analysts do not expect any change to the direction of China's foreign policy, guided by Xi's thinking on diplomacy, aimed at seeking to assert global influence in line with the country's development achievements.

"Whether this is, in fact, effectively a placeholder appointment until a younger official gets the nod is unclear, but for now Wang is the most dominant foreign affairs official in China for a very long time," said Bill Bishop, a China expert at sinocism.com.

Known for his tough-talking style, the 69-year-old Wang held the ministerial portfolio for a decade before being promoted in October last year to head the Communist Party's Foreign Affairs Commission in charge of policymaking. He is also a member of the party's top decision-making body, the Politburo.

"Wang's oversight of policy implementation is therefore likely to strengthen the consistency of Beijing's diplomatic messaging and actions, while further cementing the party's already strong guidance of foreign affairs," US consultancy Eurasia Group wrote in a note.

His return, while signaling a comeback for more aggressive "wolf warrior" diplomacy, is seen as crucial ahead of a series of international events, notably the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit to be hosted by the United States later this year.

"A key agenda item in US-China relations is whether the working and ministerial level can set the conditions for a successful visit of Xi to San Francisco for APEC in November," said Rorry Daniels, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis.

Reappointing Wang also reflects Xi's preference for someone with a track record of defending China's positions, such as its stance on Taiwan, well as asserting the country's interests amid geopolitical tensions with the United States and its allies.

"This could complicate the Biden administration's efforts to maintain and build on the recent detente in the bilateral relationship," Eurasia Group wrote.

Wang's reappointment has been broadly welcomed in Indonesia. "Wang Yi's return could even be bringing a sense of predictability and ease to Indonesian ministers, who already have good relations with him for a long time," said one analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

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