Is bidding farewell to fossil oil possible?

The western mantra to get rid of fossil oil is getting louder. There are suggestions that countries have to take extra measures to contain carbon emission. In this race the developed countries, particularly United States and its allies are promoting clean energy i.e. solar, wind and gas. In the mean time the pressure is mounting on the less developed countries, currently using fossil oil and coal.

The International Energy Agency (EIA) expects US$2.8 trillion of investment in energy this year, with roughly 60% of that going toward clean energy. In the past two years, clean energy investment has risen 24% as compared to 15% for fossil fuels.

Producers of fossil fuels reaped huge profits in 2022, but less than half their cash flow is going towards new supply. Unsurprisingly, Middle Eastern producers lead in terms of spending on new supply.

A question arises, why the sudden surge in clean energy investment? The main explanations include volatility in fossil fuel markets, renewed interest in energy security, rising appreciation of the disruption created by climate events and greater societal interest in slowing climate change.

The largest increases in spending on clean energy by far have come from China, the European Union and the United States. Despite high interest in clean energy, the transition faces many challenges, chief among them the complexity and cost of developing and growing new energy supply chains.

The ongoing energy disruptions in the wake of the hostilities in the Ukraine have had a dramatic impact on export of LNG from the United States.

In the newly released edition of the Natural Gas Monthly, published by the Energy Information Agency (EIA), part of the US Department of Energy, the changing dynamics of the US export trades are described in detail.

In the publication, the EIA notes, “During the first four months of 2022, the United States exported 74% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe, as compared to an average of 34% a year ago.”  It adds, “In 2020 and 2021, Asia had been the main destination for US LNG exports, accounting for almost half of the total exports.” Overall, US LNG exports saw an 18% increase as compared to 2021.

Exports have averaged 11.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during the first four months of 2022, aided by the opening of new export facilities. The increase in US LNG exports was driven by additional export capacity at Sabine Pass (Train 6) and at nearby Calcasieu Pass, with a facility that came online in early March. The Sabine Pass terminal loaded nearly 110 LNG cargoes during Q1 2022. Venture Global’s Calcasieu terminal, Louisiana began exporting in March, when five cargoes were loaded - four to Europe and one to Japan.  

The move towards European destinations had already begun before the late February invasion of Ukraine, with the huge inventory draw downs underway in advance of the winter season. The EIA said, “The United States became the largest LNG supplier to the European Union and the United Kingdom in 2021. They said that LNG imports from the United States to the EU and the UK more than tripled during January to April, 2022, as compared to 2021, averaging 7.3 Bcf/d.”

The EIA pointed out, “During the first four months of 2022, US LNG exports to Asia declined by 51% to 2.3 Bcf/d as compared to 4.6 Bcf/d in 2021.”

Its analysts also alluded to a drop-off in moves to China due to the extremely high Asian LNG prices and pandemic-related lockdowns. China received only six LNG cargoes from the United States in January–April 2022 or just 0.2 Bcf/d as compared to 1.2 Bcf/d in 2021. Japan and South Korea also saw declines.