US to become world's largest LNG exporter

At least three proposed US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants have likely found enough customers to receive financial approvals this year, according to Reuters - developments that would make the country the world's largest LNG exporter for years to come.

After a dearth of plant approvals last decade, developers have secured dozens of long-term contracts to finance new multibillion dollar LNG plants. The pace of approvals has accelerated as Europe has shifted away from Russian gas since Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

About a dozen developers hope to make final investment decisions this year. Many of these projects have been delayed several times, but analysts said at least three have secured enough customers to move ahead soon.

The United States was long an importer of LNG, but natural gas discoveries and production from the shale revolution flipped the country into an LNG exporter in 2016.

United States LNG exports hit 10.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2022, making the country the second biggest LNG exporter after Australia.

Projects best positioned to move ahead include Sempra Energy's Port Arthur plant in Texas, Energy Transfer LP's Lake Charles in Louisiana and NextDecade Corp's Rio Grande in Texas.

They have all or most of the long-term LNG sales agreements needed to convince bank's that the projects are ready for debt financing, say analysts.

Sempra said in January it has sold all the capacity needed to advance the first phase of Port Arthur. Buyers include Poland's Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen SA, US oil producer ConocoPhillips and Germany's RWE AG.

NextDecade has signed deals for about 64% of the first phase of Rio Grande and may soon push it to about 87%, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley. Rio Grande's customers include Exxon Mobil Corp, Shell, Portugal's Galp Energia and Japan's Itochu Corp.

NextDecade could secure a financial go-ahead in the second half of this year, Morgan Stanley said. NextDecade has said that it was targeting a first-quarter FID for the project's first phase.

Energy Transfer signaled on Wednesday it might miss its first-quarter target for a FID due to extreme competition for LNG buyers. It has deals to sell LNG to several firms, including Shell, China's ENN Group and Swiss commodity trader Gunvor.

It takes roughly four years to build these giant plants, so their LNG is not likely to reach markets before 2027. But their production volumes will allow the United States to remain ahead of output from Australia and Qatar.

The United States already has the capacity to produce the most LNG in the world and would have been the biggest exporter if not for the shutdown of Freeport LNG's plant in Texas after a fire in June 2022.

"The United States still sits atop the ranking of global LNG supply additions through 2030 ... followed by Qatar, Mozambique, and Canada," analysts at energy consultancy Tudor Pickering Holt & Co said in a note.

The United States should export around 11.8 bcfd this year and 12.6 bcfd next, estimates the US Energy Information Administration.

The seven US export plants already in service, including Freeport LNG, can turn about 13.8 billion cubic feet of gas into LNG each day.

The next United States LNG plants expected to open are the QatarEnergy-Exxon joint venture at Golden Pass in Texas in late 2024, the first phase of Venture Global LNG's Plaquemines in Louisiana in 2024-2026, and Cheniere Energy Inc's expansion at its Corpus Christi plant in Texas in 2025.

 

Bangladesh succumbs to US pressure and bars Russian ships entering its maritime territory

The Bangladesh government has imposed restrictions barring the entry of 69 Russian ships into its maritime waters in line with US and EU sanctions.

This means that Russian vessels will not be able to bring in shipments of imports, stop for fueling, anchor in the area, or even use sea routes.

The government has sent notices to the relevant ministries, agencies, ports, shipping services, and international organizations regarding the new restrictions.

As a result of these new sanctions, Bangladesh will find it difficult to conduct any trade with Russia.

Bangladesh’s most expensive mega project, the Rooppur nuclear power plant, is being built with the support of Russia. A significant portion of the equipment and materials for that project is imported from Russia. Recently, a shipment from Russia carrying materials for the project was barred from entering Bangladesh’s maritime boundary amid diplomatic pressure from the US.

The ship attempted to dock at India’s Haldia Port to deliver its shipment but was turned away there too. It eventually returned to Russia with its cargo.

“At the request of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the 69 vessels from Russia which were embargoed by the United States have been banned from entering ports in Bangladesh,” said Captain Sabbir Mahmood, registrar of Bangladesh ships at the Mercantile Marine Office, citing the content of the notice.

The ban covers a wide range of ships, including oil tankers and cargo vessels, operated by seven companies. The restrictions mean that no import or shipping agents can import goods from any country using these Russian ships.

“The ban on ships bearing the Russian flag was jointly imposed by the United States and the European Union,” said Azam J Chowdhury, chairman of the Bangladesh Ocean Going Shipowners Association, or BOGSA. “If any product comes to Bangladesh on these ships, then Bangladesh will also be added to the ban. The bulk of our international trade is with the EU and the US.”

The sanctions were imposed due to Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

“As such, we believe that in the overall assessment of the interests of Bangladeshi businesses, the Russia situation will not significantly impact the transportation of goods for global trade.”

Bangladesh has 197 ships that travel in the deep sea, accounting for less than 10 percent of the country’s total trade in international goods.

If Bangladesh businesses stay abreast of the situation, the ban should not have a significant impact on shipping or costs, the BOGSA chief said.

However, some import agents who have had long working relationships with these Russian vessels may be impacted, Azam noted.

Russia is not on the list of the top 20 countries that Bangladesh trades with, according to data from Bangladesh Bank. Nearly 87 percent of all imports come from those countries.

Bangladesh mainly imports wheat and petroleum products from Russia and exports garments to the country.

 

Pakistan: Imposition of additional taxes may lure IMF, but plunge the country deeper in debt trap

After reading the details of mini budget, it may be said that the incumbent government may have succeeded in convincing the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to release a paltry amount. However, the measures would further weaken the already feeble economy. On top of all the fear of default will continue to haunt.

Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar presented the proposal to both the houses to impose additional taxation measures of PKR170 billion. These measures address only one deficit, budget deficit. No measures have been introduced to bridge the current account deficit or improve debt payment capacity of the country.

The release of around US$ one billion by the IMF may pave the way for seeking loans from other lenders, but in no way help in generating additional dollars to boost the foreign exchange reserves of Pakistan.

While the imports are likely to become more expensive, especially after the depreciation of Pak rupee, no measures have been introduced to enhance competitiveness of the Pakistani exporters.

Hike in interest rate, electricity and gas tariffs, sales tax and Federal Excise Duty will collectively increase prices of goods for the consumers and fuel inflation.

In aggregate cost of doing business will be increased and local manufacturers will witness erosion in competitiveness in the global markets.

 

Israel: Zionist regime faces highest resistance in West Bank

In Israel, the extremist ruling regime, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, faces its biggest resistance in the occupied West Bank in two decades. It simply can't put an end to the resistance of newly formed factions by Palestinian youth despite the almost daily military raids on cities, towns, villages, and refugee camps.

The record number of Palestinians Israel murdered last year looks like it will rise sharply this year with the death toll approaching almost 50 already in 2023. 

On Monday, the newly formed Palestinian Lions' Den resistance group said that its forces set up an elaborate ambush for Israeli troops who had entered Nablus to detain militants.

The group said that its forces used explosive devices as well as gunfire against the Israeli soldiers, who were eliminated. 

In a brief media statement, it then forecast that the cowardly Israeli occupation army would deny that soldiers had been killed. Instead, it will say that the deaths occurred in traffic accidents, on the mountains or as a result of illness.

"There were no Israeli casualties," reported Reuters, "but Israeli troops killed a 21-year-old Palestinian during an arrest raid in the occupied West Bank that triggered clashes with gunmen on Monday."

This is while reports have emerged that the Jenin Battalion have used, for the first time, drones in pursuing the occupation soldiers, in what would be a major development.

The use of drones is said to have taken place as violent clashes broke out once again between the resistance factions and the Israeli military, after special Israeli forces stormed the Jenin refugee camp, where they were confronted by the Palestinian resistance.

In a statement, the Jenin Battalion confirmed that the occupation forces targeted it with heavy ammunition and explosive devices, resulting in direct hits.

The Palestinian Ministry of Health announced that two civilians have sustained serious injuries as an outcome of the latest aggression.

The major Israeli raids and long-term military operations in the West Bank have failed to stop the Palestinian resistance. 

At the end of January 2023, the al-Quds Brigades published footage of the Jenin Brigade detonating an explosive device as a truck drove by carrying Special Forces of the occupation army.

Other scenes were shown of the battalion's fighters shooting down a drone that was being used for surveillance by the occupation army.

As the regime kills more civilians, retaliatory operations are also leaving the Israeli Special Forces as well as its settlers dying in rising numbers.

The daily Israeli raids and sieges of Palestinian refugee camps, towns and villages are not bringing the desired results that the regime wants.

It has, therefore, resorted to the other more common option that it has used over the decades of ethnic cleansing with the construction of settlements. 

The new Israeli cabinet has granted authorization to legitimize nine settler outposts in the occupied West Bank while also announcing the mass-construction of new settler units within established settlements as revenge for the Palestinian resistance's lethal operations against the Zionist troops and settlers. 

Over the years, Zionist settlers have constructed and expanded scores of settler outposts themselves. Many are later authorized as legal by the Israeli cabinet. The nine that have been authorized are the first by Netanyahu’s new far-right cabinet.

Illegal settlements to be legalized:

1. Avigil

2. Bet Hogla

3. Givat Harel / Haroeh

4. Givat Arnon

5. Mitzpe Yehuda

6. Malachei Hashalom

7. Ashael

8. Sde Boaz

9. Shaharit

 

A statement from Netanyahu's office also said a planning committee would convene in the coming days to approve new settler units. Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said these would number 10,000.

The international community considers the settlements illegal for stealing the native land of Palestinians. According to the Peace Now watchdog group, since capturing the West Bank in 1967, Israel has established at least 132 settlements.

While statements by extremist ministers in Netanyahu's cabinet deemed the settlement push as a response to recent Palestinian retaliatory operation, they had actually agreed on such plans before their coalition was sworn in on December 29, 2022.

While welcoming the Netanyahu cabinet’s announcement, West Bank settler leader Yossi Dagan urged a total removal of curbs on construction, to enable construction in full swing.

The number of settlers squatting in the occupied West Bank has hit half a million for the first time.  

Israel demolishes Palestinian homes to make way for the expansion of its settlements or the construction of new ones, which effectively means the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians from their indigenous land.

The latest announcement by Netanyahu’s office has been met with demands by the United Nations for Israel for be held accountable for “domicide”.

In late 2022, the Special Rapporteur on the right to housing, Balakrishnan Rajagopal, called for domicide - defined as the massive, arbitrary destruction of civilian housing in violent conflict - to be recognized as a crime under international law.

The UN Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights says the international community must take action to stop systematic and deliberate housing demolition and sealing, arbitrary displacement, and forced evictions of Palestinian people in the occupied West Bank, UN experts said.

In January 2023 alone, Israel reportedly demolished 132 Palestinian structures across 38 communities in the West Bank, including 34 residential and 15 donor-funded structures. This figure represents a 135% increase, compared to the same period in 2022, and includes five punitive demolitions.

The United Nations Human Rights Office says, “The systematic demolition of Palestinian homes, erection of illegal Israeli settlements and systematic denial of building permits for Palestinians in the occupied West Bank amounts to domicide.”

"Direct attacks on the Palestinian people's homes, schools, livelihoods and water sources are nothing but Israel's attempts to curtail the Palestinians' right to self-determination and to threaten their very existence," the United Nations experts said in a statement.

They reiterated concern over the situation in Masafer Yatta, where over 1,100 Palestinian residents are at imminent risk of forced eviction, arbitrary displacement and demolitions of their homes, livelihood, water and sanitation structures.

In November 2022, Israeli authorities demolished a donor-funded school in Isfey al Fauqa. Four other schools in the area are under demolition orders.

“Direct attacks on the Palestinians’ homes, schools, livelihoods and water sources are nothing but Israel’s attempts to curtail the Palestinians’ right to self-determination and to threaten their very existence,” the experts said.

“Israel’s tactics of forcibly displacing and evicting the Palestinian population appear to have no limits. In occupied East Jerusalem, tens of Palestinian families also face imminent risks of forced evictions and displacement, due to discriminatory zoning and planning regimes that favor Israeli settlement expansion – the act that is illegal under international law and amounts to a war crime.”

The experts also expressed alarm at the regime’s endorsement and escalated practice of punitive evictions and demolitions, and other punitive measures applied to alleged perpetrators of attacks and their family members, such as revoking identity documents, citizenship and residency rights and social security benefits.

On January 29, Israeli authorities announced measures to immediately seal off family homes of those suspected of carrying out the attacks on 27 and 28 January in occupied [al-Quds] Jerusalem, including the attack in the Neve Yacoub settlement on 27 January which killed at least seven Israelis. Two families of the alleged attackers were forcibly evicted from their homes, and more than 40 people, including family members, were reportedly arrested in relation to the retaliatory operations.

"The sealing of family homes of suspected offenders and the subsequent demolition of their homes is in fundamental disrespect of international human rights norms and the rule of law. Such acts amount to collective punishment which is strictly prohibited under international law,” the experts said.

They statement added, “We regret that impunity prevails, in particular for human rights violations and potential war crimes committed by the occupying power. It is high time for international adjudication bodies to determine the nature of the Israeli occupation and seek justice and accountability for all crimes committed in the occupied Palestinian territory.”

Washington has voiced its regular strong opposition to the expansion of Israeli statements. But as usual, the statements are lame attempts to try and show that the US upholds international law.

The US has never taken any punitive action against Israel, which is its number one proxy in West Asia. The White House has defended the occupation regime even when its war crimes are condemned by UN agencies. 

 

Pakistan: Refineries asked to raise petrol output

This morning I was shocked to read a news that the government has asked local refineries to overcome the likely shortfall of 8,000 tons of petrol in the country. This clearly indicates that the concerned departments were unaware of the factors responsible for the shortfall: 1) delay in opening of L/Cs due to the limited availability of the foreign exchange and 2) overflowing furnace oil storage tanks of the refineries.

Let me address the second issue first. In the recent past government asked power plants not to use furnace oil. The limited offtake of furnace oil forced the refineries to operate at lower capacity utilization. The decision has no rationale because running of refineries at lower capacity utilization, reduced output of petrol as well as diesel.

The worst has been the decision of the government to stop or delay opening of L/Cs. Though, the government as well as State Bank of Pakistan keeps on denying delay in the opening L/Cs, it emerged to be the harsh reality.

To be prudent, the government must allow: 1) opening of L/Cs for the import of crude oil – available on deferred payment from Saudi Arabia and 2) ensuring operating refineries at optimum capacity utilization.

Lately, PARCO has solicited order for the export of furnace oil, despite the impression that Pakistani refineries are not competitive in the global markets.

Sector experts are of the opinion that the government should immediately allow running of power plants on furnace oil.

Enhanced offtake of furnace oil will allow operating of refineries at optimum capacity utilization and achieve greater synergy and reduction in the cost of production.

World powers oppose Israeli settlement authorization

Foreign ministers of four European countries and Canada joined Washington on Tuesday in opposing a decision by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to authorize nine Jewish settler outposts in the occupied West Bank.

The foreign ministers of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and the United States issued a joint statement voicing concern over the plans announced by Israel on Sunday.

"We strongly oppose unilateral actions which will only serve to exacerbate tensions between Israelis and Palestinians and undermine efforts to achieve a negotiated two-state solution," they said.

Later, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said Ottawa also strongly opposed the expansion of settlements and added that such unilateral actions jeopardize efforts to achieve comprehensive, just and lasting peace.

On Sunday, Israel granted retroactive authorization to nine settler outposts in the West Bank and announced mass construction of new homes in established settlements, prompting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to say he was deeply troubled.

Israel's foreign ministry had no immediate comment but Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, from the hardliner religious nationalist bloc in Netanyahu's government, said he wanted to go further.

"This is our mission. This is our doctrine," Ben-Gvir said. "Nine settlements are nice but it's still not enough. We want much more," he said in a video message.

Most world powers view as illegal the settlements Israel has built on land it captured in a 1967 war with Arab powers.

Israel disputes that and cites biblical, historical and political links to the West Bank, as well as security interests.

Since the 1967 war, it has established 132 settlements on land Palestinians see as the core of a future state, according to the Peace Now watchdog group.

Besides the authorized settlements, groups of settlers have built scores of outposts without government permission. Some have been razed by police, others authorized retroactively. The nine granted approval on Sunday is the first for this Netanyahu government.

Hussein al-Sheikh, a senior Palestinian official, welcomed the joint statement but added, "We demand that words be turned to deeds."

With tensions in the West Bank already high, the move has alarmed world powers which fear an even greater escalation of violence. Israeli forces have conducted near daily raids in the West Bank, pursuing a crackdown begun last year in the wake of a spate of deadly Palestinian attacks.

This year more than 40 Palestinians, including both militant fighters and civilians, have been killed by Israeli forces. At the same time, 10 people have been killed in Israel in two attacks by Palestinians.

 

Pakistan plans to quadruple domestic coal-fired power generation

Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming years, its energy minister told Reuters on Monday, as the country seeks to ease a crippling foreign-exchange crisis.

A shortage of natural gas, which accounts for over a third of the country's power output, plunged large areas into hours of darkness last year. A surge in global prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and an onerous economic crisis had made LNG unaffordable for Pakistan.

"LNG is no longer part of the long-term plan," Pakistan Energy Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan told Reuters, adding that the country plans to increase domestic coal-fired power capacity to 10 gigawatts (GW) in the medium-term, from 2.31 GW currently.

Pakistan's plan to switch to coal to provide its citizens reliable electricity underscores challenges in drafting effective decarburization strategies, at a time when some developing countries are struggling to keep lights on.

Despite power demand increasing in 2022, Pakistan's annual LNG imports fell to the lowest levels in five years as European buyers elbowed out price-sensitive consumers.

"We have some of the world's most efficient degasified LNG-based power plants. But we don't have the gas to run them," Dastgir said in an interview.

The South Asian nation, which is battling a wrenching economic crisis and is in dire need of funds, is seeking to reduce the value of its fuel imports and protect itself from geopolitical shocks, he said.

Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank have fallen to US$2.9 billion, barely enough to cover three weeks of imports.

"It's this question of not just being able to generate energy cheaply, but also with domestic sources that is very important" Dastgir said.

The Shanghai Electric Thar plant, a 1.32 GW capacity plant that runs on domestic coal is funded under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), started producing power last week. The CPEC is a part of Beijing's global Belt and Road Initiative.

In addition to the coal-fired plants, Pakistan also plans to boost its solar, hydro and nuclear power fleet, Dastgir said, without elaborating.

If the proposed plants are constructed, it could also widen the gap between Pakistan's power demand and installed power generation capacity, potentially forcing the country to idle plants.

The maximum power demand met by Pakistan during the year ended June 2022 was 28.25 GW, more than 35% lower than power generation capacity of 43.77 GW.

It was not immediately clear how Pakistan will finance the proposed coal fleet, but Dastgir said setting up new plants will depend on investor interest, which he expects to increase when newly commissioned coal-fired plants are proved viable.

Financial institutions in China and Japan, which are among the biggest financiers of coal units in developing countries, have been backing out of funding fossil-fuel projects in recent years amid pressure from activists and Western governments.