Pakistan stock Exchange remains under pressure

Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) benchmark index witnessed an overall volatile week ended on January 07, 2023. Depletion of foreign exchange reserves continued, fueling uncertainty. Reserves have fallen by approximately US$2 billion since December 2022 began, pulling import cover down to alarming low level.

Although, some respite was seen towards energy stocks such as PPL, OGDC and refineries with news amidst gas circular debt resolution and fresh investment in a coastal refinery from Saudi Arab (aided by the much anticipated refinery policy).

Overall, average daily trading volume remained low at 176 million shares, as compared to 214.2 million shares traded in the earlier week. The Index gained 588 points during the week, depicting a 1.45% increase.

The PKR also lost some footing against the US$ and depreciated 0.31% to end at PKR227.14/US$ parity on Friday. CPI was still at multi-year highs, at 24.5% for December 2022, lower than expectations as compared to 26.6% in October 2022.

Finally, Trade deficit for November 2022 was reported at US$2.79 billion, down 28.4%YoY. Foreign exchange reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) were reported at US$5.6 billion as at December 30, 2022.

On the international front, crude oil remained volatile, averaging at US$82/bbl as the global commodity remained in a limbo on the back of on/off Chinese lockdowns and the emergence of the newer COVID Omricon variant.

Other major news flows during the week were: 1) Pakistan will have to repay by January 10, 2023, US$1.3 billion in foreign loans, 2) annual inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was recorded at 24.5% in December last year, 3) The federal cabinet, on Tuesday, approved the Energy Conservation Plan, barring fresh restrictions on wedding halls and markets, 4) Pakistan is eying generating around US$8 billion from the international community and donor agencies for the rehabilitation and reconstruction of the flood-affected people, 5) Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on Wednesday claimed that friendly countries have announced their support.

Sector-wise, amongst mainboard items, Miscellaneous, Refinery and Transport were the top performers. Vanaspati and allied industries, Leather & Tanneries and Cable & Electrical were amongst the worst performers.

Flow wise, net selling was recorded by Mutual Funds with net sell of US$2.9 million). Companies absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$3.2 million.

Company-wise, top performers during the week were: PSEL, SHIFA, ATRL, PPL, and SNGP, while top laggards were: PSMC, HCAR, KEL, GADT, and GATM.

The market is expected to remain under pressure in the near future, driven by the weakness in the PKR against the US$ and the concerns regarding the country’s fiscal health.

Pakistan will have to repay around US$8.3 billion in shape of external debt servicing over next three months of current fiscal year.

Additionally, the political uncertainty and any developments regarding the 9th review by the IMF would remain in the limelight, which would unlock inflows from friendly countries.

Consequently, the market will remain jittery amid uncertainty over economic fronts. Analysts continue to advise a cautious approach while building positions in the market. 

India becomes third largest auto market

India is now the world's third-largest auto market, reports Nikkei Asia. Based on preliminary results, India's sales of new vehicles totaled at least 4.25 million units, topping the 4.2 million sold in Japan.

According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, new vehicles delivered in India totalled 4.13 million between January and November 2022, the report says. India's largest carmaker, Maruti Suzuki sales volume reported on Sunday takes the total to roughly 4.25 million units.

The report adds that the country's sales volume is expected to rise further with the inclusion of pending fourth-quarter sales figures for commercial vehicles. Tata Motors and other automakers are yet to reveal their year-end results.

In 2021, China continued to lead the global auto market, with 26.27 million vehicles sold. The US remained second at 15.4 million vehicles, followed by Japan at 4.44 million units.

Nikkei Asia said India's auto market has fluctuated in recent years. Roughly 4.4 million vehicles were sold in 2018, but volume dipped below 4 million units in 2019, due primarily to the credit crunch that hit the nonbank sector that year.

When the Covid pandemic triggered a countrywide lockdown in 2020, vehicle sales plummeted further below the 3 million-unit mark. Sales recovered in 2021 to approach 4 million units, but the shortage of automotive chips weighed on growth.

Vehicles powered by gasoline, including hybrid vehicles, accounted for most of the new autos sold in India last year, Nikkei Asia said, adding that electric vehicles hardly have a presence. Autos for the Indian market are seen having fewer semiconductors than those sold in advanced economies.

According to Nikkei Asia, the easing of the automotive chip crunch in 2022 provided a springboard for a recovery. Along with Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors and other Indian automakers saw sales grow during last year.

India is home to 1.4 billion people, and its population is expected to outstrip China sometime this year and continue growing until the early 2060s. Incomes are rising as well.

Only 8.5 per cent of Indian households owned a passenger vehicle in 2021, according to British research firm Euromonitor, meaning there is plenty of room for sales growth. The government has started offering subsidies for EVs amid a trade deficit resulting from petroleum imports.

In Japan, 4,201,321 vehicles were sold last year, down 5.6 per cent from 2021, according to data from the Japan Automobile Dealers Association and the Japan Light Motor Vehicle and Motorcycle Association.

Nikkei Asia said the omicron epidemic and the lockdowns in China greatly undercut production, leaving automakers unable to meet demand.

Japan's auto sales peaked in 1990 at 7.77 million units, meaning sales have tumbled by nearly half from the all-time high, according to Nikkei Asia. And the country's declining population offers little prospect for a significant recovery in sales in the foreseeable future.

According to Nikkei Asia, China surged past Japan to become the second-largest auto market in 2006. In 2009, China overtook the US to become the world's largest market. 

 

UN Security Council members stress Al Aqsa status quo

UN Security Council members voiced concern on Thursday and stressed the need to maintain a status quo at the Al Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem, days after Israel's new far-right security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir briefly visited the site, reports Reuters.

The decades-old status quo allows only Muslim worship at the compound, a site also revered by Jews, who call it the Temple Mount. An Israeli official said Ben-Gvir complied with the arrangement that allows non-Muslims to visit but not pray.

Palestinian UN envoy Riyad Mansour pushed for the Security Council to take action - a move that was unlikely given the United States traditionally shields Israel. The United States, Russia, China, France and Britain are all council veto powers.

"What red line does Israel need to cross for the Security Council to finally say, enough is enough," Mansour told the 15-member council, accusing Israel of showing absolute contempt.

Senior UN political affairs official, Khaled Khiari, told the council it was the first visit to the site by an Israeli cabinet minister since 2017.

"While the visit was not accompanied or followed by violence, it is seen as particularly inflammatory given Ben-Gvir's past advocacy for changes to the status quo," he said.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for all parties to refrain from steps that could escalate tensions in and around the holy sites

Israel's UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan told reporters ahead of the meeting, "Jews are permitted to visit the holiest site in Judaism. It is the right of every Jew, every Jew. Israel has not harmed the status quo and has no plans to do so."

Ben-Gvir once called for ending the ban on Jewish prayer at the site, but has been non-committal on the issue since aligning with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Other members of Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party still advocate such a move.

The United States is committed to a two-state solution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians and was "concerned by any unilateral acts that exacerbate tensions or undermine the viability of a two-state solution," US Deputy UN Ambassador Robert Wood told the council.

"We note that Prime Minister Netanyahu's governing platform calls for preservation of the status quo with relation to the holy places. We expect the Government of Israel to follow through on that commitment," Wood said

Maritime City of Fuzhou

Recently, the promotional video of Fuzhou of Fujian Province, titled "What You Didn't Know about Fuzhou -- a Maritime City", was released through overseas social media accounts including "Paris Oriental Center", "Discover Fujian" and "Discover Fuzhou", showing the world Fuzhou, a Maritime City featuring wisdom, innovation, ecology and prosperity.

In the promotional video, Fuzhou's advanced international logistics industry, national deep-sea fishing base, national key cold-chain logistics center and other coastal industries are located on the long coastline which is witnessing a growing marine economy driven by innovation in science and technology.

With superb maritime conditions, Fuzhou's fishing industry is marching into the deeper sea, and the processing of aquatic products becomes more sophisticated, driving the sustainable development of marine industries.

The Golden Coastline of Fuzhou is a paradise for tourists to get closer to the sea where they can feast their eyes on the stunning scenery, enjoy leisure time, learn about the local naval history, use facilities for recreation and fitness or simply stroll along the walkway.

International maritime cooperation programs, such as the "Two Countries, Twin Parks" Project jointly launched by China and Indonesia are making faster progress. A maritime innovation community in the urban sphere of Fuzhou is taking shape.

As one of the first open coastal cities in China, the pulse of Fuzhou's development always aligns with the tempo of the country's reform, according to the Publicity Department of the CPC Fuzhou Municipal Committee.

Nowadays, the vigorously growing marine economy is creating more advantages for Fuzhou. In the favorable context, Fuzhou is constantly tapping new potential for developing the Maritime City with unprecedented strength and boldness as well as a more open and broader vision.

 

Iran a major player of shipbuilding industry

Iran's shipbuilding industry, with more than 50 years of history, has been on a journey toward development since its establishment. At present Iran is considered one of the world’s major shipbuilders manufacturing and repairing all kinds of giant vessels.

Despite all the improvement achieved in the shipbuilding industry over the past few years, there are still many challenges in the way of this old but newly developed industry which calls for special attention.

Modernizing the shipbuilding industry is not only a commercial necessity but also a must Iran as the country heavily relies on its oil industry whose existence is dependent on ocean-going vessels.

As a vital sector in Iran’s shipbuilding industry, repairing must also be given special significance, since for many years Iranian oil tankers and large cargo vessels have been sent to foreign yards for periodic overhauls and this has imposed huge costs on the country’s economy.

Considering Iran’s special geographical position in the region and its shared borders with several coastal countries both in the south and north, shipbuilding has always been among the major industries strongly entangled with the country’s economy.

As Iran’s first modern shipbuilding complex, the Iran Marine Industrial Company, also known as SADRA, was established in 1968 as a small ship repair yard in Bushehr Province, southern Iran. Since then, the company has developed into a major shipbuilding and ship-repairing company in Iran and in the region.

Later in 1973, Iran Shipbuilding and Offshore Industries Complex (ISOICO), which is a subsidiary of the Industrial Development and Renovation Organization of Iran (IDRO), was established as the largest shipbuilding complex in West Asia, in an area of 1100 hectares, 37 kilometers west of the southern port of Bandar Abbas.

At the initial stage, the complex was established with the aim of creating facilities for repairing small and medium-sized vessels. Later, the complex’s equipment and facilities were developed for the construction and repair of large tankers.

In July 2019, ISOICO successfully finished the overhaul operation of a supertanker for the first time inside the country. Iranian technicians managed to repair the oil supertanker “DORE” inside the country for the first time in the history of Iran’s shipping industry.

Following the successful overhaul of the mentioned supertanker, major domestic ship-owners like the National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) and the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), started referring a major part of their overhaul operations to local yards in order to reduce their costs and also to encourage domestic yards to expand their works.

Following the footsteps of the country’s two major shipbuilders, new private companies have also entered the sector over the past few years, making the industry expand its roots both inside the country and at the global level.

According to Saeid Jafari, Director General of the Maritime Industry Department at the Ministry of Industry, Mining and Trade, there are currently 23 yards active in the country which is able to fully meet the needs in this sector.

In addition to repair operations, Iranian shipbuilding companies have also successfully built three large oil tankers for Venezuela.

In September 2022, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced receiving the third "advanced" oil tanker from Iran as part of a bilateral arrangement.

“We have just received another ship with the most advanced engineering and technology in the world,” Maduro said according to Venezuelan state TV. He said that the ship was manufactured by Iran upon Venezuela’s order.

Also, in late December 2022, Head of the SADRA Company’s Caspian Complex Meysam Ra'yat Azad said the company is currently repairing a Russian vessel that has hit large pieces of ice in the Volga River.

This is the first time that a Russian vessel is being repaired by Iran Marine Industrial Company, the official said.

Specialists of the SADRA company are currently trying to fix some of the damages caused to this bulk ship, he added.

Considering all the improvements in Iran’s shipbuilding industry, the sector still has a long way ahead to reach its full potential. The first step in this regard is to develop infrastructure and train more specialized and skilled manpower.

Marginal issues such as customs and clearance problems, etc. should also be seriously considered in order to lure in foreign customers and expand activities at an international level.

Measures should also be taken for all ship repair operations to be carried out in one place. Sometimes a part of the overhaul is carried out in a yard, but due to the lack of infrastructure, skill, or equipment other parts are referred to foreign companies. In this case, the ship owner must spend twice the port fees, the cost of transportation, and most importantly the time for the ship to get ready.

Another important factor that should be taken into consideration is marketing. Shipbuilding yards in Iran are mostly focused on repairing or building ships for domestic companies like NITC and IRISL, however, these companies have only a limited number of orders every year. Iranian shipbuilding yards need to get more orders since more work means more revenue and more money would lead to more development.

 

Pakistan needs US$16.8 billion for rehabilitation and reconstruction

Pakistan is eying generating around US$8 billion from the international community and donor agencies for the rehabilitation and reconstruction of the flood-affected people at the “International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan” scheduled for January 09 in Geneva.

Diplomatic sources said Pakistan needs a total of US$16.8 billion for the reconstruction and rehabilitation of more than 33 million flood-affected people.

“We are trying our level best to arrange half or US$8.1 billion of the total US$16.8 billion from our own resources and for the remaining US$8.1 billion we are hopeful that the international community will extend its support generously so that the vast affected population of the country is rehabilitated,” a diplomatic source said.

When asked how the huge amount of around US$8 billion could be arranged in such a grave economic situation, he explained that the amount would not be spent in one go, rather it is a process and the amount would be generated from Public Sector Development Program (PSDP), as well as, from the public-private partnership.

To another question, he said that to the UN flash appeal of US$816 million, more than US$200 million have been received so far from the international community.

In an informal interaction, a senior Foreign Office official said that Pakistan, in coordination with the donor agencies, will present “Resilient, Recovery, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Framework” before the International Conference on Climate Resilient Pakistan being held in Geneva on January 09.

He said that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and UN Secretary-General António Guterres will co-host the conference while various world leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron and others will also participate.

To a question, he said that France has been very supportive in providing the required assistance for the flood-affected people of Pakistan, adding that Pakistan is also in touch at the highest level with various countries to ensure their participation at heads of state and heads of government level.

The official expressed confidence that the international community will express solidarity with Pakistan for the reconstruction and rehabilitation of flood-affected areas.

“Pakistan is in touch with all the important capitals and a high-level participation from them is expected in the conference,” the official said, adding that the event should also be seen in the context of a diplomatic achievement of Pakistan.

He said that the prime minister has instructed that a small delegation from Pakistan will be accompanying him to the conference while all the provinces have also been asked to ensure their participation either at the level of chief ministers or ministers.

About the transparency in spending international assistance, he said that a procedure has been devised with regard to spending the money in a transparent manner and it will be announced in the proposed “Resilient, Recovery, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Framework”.

Meanwhile, Foreign Office said in a statement that the Conference will serve as a platform to marshal international support for the people and Government of Pakistan to build back better in a resilient manner after the recent devastating floods, as the country transitions from the rescue-and-relief phase towards the monumental task of recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction.

It added that Pakistan will present the Resilient Recovery, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Framework (4RF) at the Conference, and seek international support and long-term partnerships for its implementation.

The 4RF document outlines a prioritized and sequential Plan, defined at the Federal and Provincial levels, and includes the financial mechanism and institutional arrangements for its execution in an open, transparent and collaborative manner.

The Conference will feature a high-level opening segment, to be co-chaired by the Prime Minister and the UN Secretary General, followed by the official launch of the 4RF document and partner support announcements.

The Prime Minister and the UN Secretary General will also hold a joint press stakeout.

At the Conference, according to the statement the Prime Minister will outline Pakistan’s vision for rehabilitating the affected population and reconstructing the damaged infrastructure in a resilient manner, with the support of development partners, and the country’s transition towards a more dynamic and sustainable economic development model.

Federal Ministers from Pakistan will elaborate on the 4RF document and also present Pakistan’s long-term plan for building climate resilience and adaptation, it added.

It added that the perspectives of the four provinces will be articulated by their representatives.

Heads of State and Government, Ministers and high-level representatives from several countries and International Financial Institutions, Foundations and Funds, as well as from international development organizations, private sector, civil society and INGOs will participate in the Conference, it added.

“The Conference will help Pakistan in forging a long-term partnership with its friends and development partners on the basis of the 4RF document, and serve as a demonstration of international solidarity with the people of Pakistan as they commence the journey towards rebuilding their lives and livelihoods,” it added.

Saudia to further cut Arab Light crude prices

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia may further cut the prices for its flagship Arab Light crude grade to Asia in February 2023 after they were set at a 10-month low this month, as concerns of oversupply continued to cloud the market.

State oil giant Saudi Aramco may cut the official selling price (OSP) for the medium sour grade by about US$1.50/barrel in February, according to four respondents surveyed by Reuters, in line with the move in the Dubai benchmark.

That would drag the February Arab Light price to a level last seen in November 2021, and about US$1.75 a barrel over the Oman/Dubai average.

"The near-term market outlook is dim. More Russian barrels are expected to flow to Asia, but demand is not picking up," said one respondent.

The price cut comes as Russia diverts its oil from Europe to Asia, after the European Union banned seaborne crude oil imports from December 05, 2022 alongside a price cap introduced by the Group of Seven (G7) nations that restricts Russian oil trade using Western financial, shipping and insurance services.

Though, Moscow last week banned crude sales to countries that observe the price ceiling on Russian crude oil, its key oil clients in Asia would be unaffected as they did not join the price cap coalition.

Russia became the top crude supplier to both China and India in November, as the Asian countries took advantage of the steep discounts, while the western countries eschewed business with Moscow.

Oil demand is also unlikely to return imminently even though China has removed its stringent COVID-19 restrictions. The sharp spike of infections in the country has dampened people's willingness to travel, the respondents said.

China has raised export quotas for refined oil products in 2023's first batch, a further effort to spur refinery production and capture healthy export margins amid slow domestic demand.

Saudi crude OSPs are usually released around the fifth of each month, and set the trend for Iranian, Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices, affecting about 9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude bound for Asia.

Saudi Aramco sets its crude prices based on recommendations from customers and after calculating the change in the value of its oil over the past month, based on yields and product prices.