The most vulnerable people in Europe, the elderly and those
living alone or on low pay to medium paychecks will pay the highest price:
Death.
More people will perish in Europe this winter because of
unaffordable household energy costs than those who have died on the battlefield
in the Ukraine war, according to research by the British weekly newspaper The
Economist.
Last week, the United Nations said the official civilian
death toll from the Ukraine war has risen to nearly 6,900, with civilian
injuries topping 10,000. Whilst the death of military forces in Ukraine has
been difficult to verify, the number of soldiers thought to have died in
Ukraine is estimated at 25,000-30,000 for each side.
The
Economist modeled the effect of the unprecedented hike in gas and electricity
bills this winter and concluded that the current cost of energy will likely
lead to an extra 147,000 deaths if it is a typical winter.
Should
Europe experience a particularly harsh winter, which is something likely when
considering the growing effects of climate change, that number could rise to
185,000. That is a rise of 6.0%. It also reports that a harsh winter could cost
a total of 335,000 extra lives.
Even in the rare case of a mild winter, that figure would
still be high with tens of thousands of extra deaths than in previous years. If
it is a mild winter, research by The Economic indicates the death toll would be
79,000.
The Economist's statistical model included all 27 European
Union member countries along with the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Norway.
It is anticipated that Governments across Western Europe would
be alarmed and concerned by these shocking figures published by the study.
But it remains to be seen what measures these governments
will take to prevent so many extra fatalities in their own countries because of
the energy shortage.
The energy crisis itself began when Europe, which was
heavily reliant on Russian gas, imposed heavy sanctions on Russian energy
exports following Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Before the war, Russia supplied
40-50% of the EU’s natural-gas imports. One of Europe’s strongest economies,
Germany for example, had become dependent on Moscow’s gas flows and had no Plan
B.
The move clearly backfired on Western economies, with
inflation reaching record levels not seen in decades, mainly as a result of the
soaring energy prices. That has left pensioners and other poorer as well as
middle-class income households facing a choice of putting food on the table
this winter or heating their homes.
The study by The Economist says that despite European
attempts to stockpile as much gas as possible to fill their storage facilities,
many consumers are still being hurt by the rise in wholesale energy costs.
Even as
market prices for fuel have slightly declined from their peaks, the real
average residential European gas and electricity costs are 144% and 78% above
the figures for 2000-19.
As it is being hurt the most, Europe could take serious and
concrete efforts to push both Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table and hold
peace talks that would bring an end to the war.
That
would ease a lot of problems facing the continent – and the world – from energy
shortages to the global food supply chain disrupted by the war. However,
critics argue, this would backfire on many Western arms manufacturers who are
making lucrative profits from their weapons shipments to the warzone.
There are many officials and other influential figures in
the West, especially the U.S. congress (despite America not being included in a
study by The Economist), who have links to arms manufacturers; which makes the
possibility of peace somewhat unlikely.
While
the United States has sent weapons to the tune of US$40 billion dollars,
European countries show no sign of opting for peace with the new British Prime
Minister Rishi Sunak, the latest to announce plans of maintaining or increasing
military aid to Ukraine next year
The other course of action is for Western governments to
ease the cost-of-living crisis by spending more on social welfare and hiking
the tax rates for the rich.
This would save lives by allowing families to heat their homes
but many Western governments are taking the opposite route, by claiming they
need to cut spending in order to strengthen economic growth in the long
run.
As things stand, the new research by the Economist will add
to the fears already facing families in Europe ahead of the winter season. The
lower the temperatures will be in Western Europe, the more likely it will be
that higher-than-usual death tolls are going to hit the continent.
As The Economist notes, although heatwaves get more press
coverage, cold temperatures are usually deadlier than hot ones. Between
December and February, 21% more Europeans die per week than from June to
August.
The report says that in the past, changes in energy prices
had a minor effect on mortality rates in Europe. But this year’s hikes to
household bills are remarkably large.
The Ukraine conflict has exposed other massive costs that
have accompanied the violence. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development estimates that the world economy in 2023 will be US$2.8 trillion
smaller than was estimated in December 2021, before the fighting erupted in
February.
The British weekly newspaper, which built a statistical
model to assess the effects of the sharp rise in energy prices, forecasts
deaths based on weather, demography, influenza, energy efficiency, incomes,
government spending, and electricity costs, which are closely correlated to
prices for a wide variety of heating fuels.
It used data from 2000-19, (excluding 2020 and 2021 because
of covid-19) and says the model was highly accurate, accounting for 90% of the
variation in death rates.
High fuel prices can exacerbate the effect of low
temperatures on deaths, by deterring people from using heat and raising their
exposure to cold.
It says that with average weather, the study found a 10%
rise in electricity prices is associated with a 0.6% increase in deaths, though
this number is greater in cold weeks and smaller in mild ones.
In recent decades’ consumer energy prices have had only a
modest impact on winter mortality, because energy prices have moved or swung
back and forth in a regular rhythm.
In a typical European country, increasing fuel prices from
their lowest level in 2000-19 reduce the temperature from the highest level in
that period to the lowest which means colder weather increases the death rate
by 12%.
The study cites the case of Italy, where electricity bills
have surged to nearly 200% since 2020, extending the situation, which it said
was a linear relationship that yields extremely high death estimates. It has
been reported that the country will suffer the most extra deaths. The results
show that Italy, which has an older population along with soaring higher
electricity prices makes it the most vulnerable.
Other countries such as Estonia and Finland are also
expected to suffer from higher fatalities on a per-person basis. People in
Britain and France will also be affected. The model for the effects of
fatalities from high energy costs did not include Ukraine.
However, damage to the energy infrastructure in Ukraine as a
result of the war, will also certainly have a dire humanitarian effect on
Ukrainians as well.
Over the past weeks, many reports have emerged citing
Europeans as saying they will be forced to switch the heating off because of
the high fuel prices, essentially exacerbating the effect of cold temperatures
on deaths by raising people’s exposure to low temperatures.
The most vulnerable people in Europe, the elderly and those
living alone or on low pay to medium paychecks will pay the highest price:
Death.
