Regime Change: Best Pastime of United States

It may be recalled that when Imran Khan’s government was removed through ‘non-confidence vote’ he openly alleged that the United States was behind this. Although, the US administration categorically denies having played any role, many in Pakistan don’t accept the denials.

This morning I was lucky enough to find an article an article by by Lindsey A. O'Rourke published in The Washington Post as back as December 23, 2016 which stated that the United States tried to change governments of other countries 72 times during the Cold War era.

The CIA has concluded with “high confidence” that Russia intervened covertly during the presidential election to promote Donald Trump’s candidacy. They based this assessment on the discovery that Russian security agencies had hacked the Republican National Committee, the Democratic National Committee and the Hillary Clinton campaign — and had released selected Democratic documents to WikiLeaks to undermine Clinton’s candidacy.

However, it must be remembered that The US has a long history of hacking other democracies. If true, Russia’s actions are reminiscent of Cold War covert political warfare, with an Internet-era twist. Following are six key things the research uncovered about those efforts.

Obviously, studying covert interventions is tough. By definition, the operations are designed so that the intervening state can plausibly deny it was involved, deflecting blame onto other actors. It’s impossible to get reliable cross-national data, given how widely countries vary in their rules about government transparency and freedom of the press. Add in flourishing conspiracy theories, and it can be hard to separate historical fact from fiction.

To tackle these problems, the writer has spent the past several years investigating allegations of US-backed covert regime changes during the Cold War. She has done so by going through relevant documents from the National Archives, National Security Archive and presidential libraries. Fortunately, the combination of the US government’s declassification rules, congressional inquiries and journalistic coverage has revealed a great deal about these operations.

1. From 1947 to 1989, the United States tried to change other governments in other countries 72 times

That’s a remarkable number. It includes 66 covert operations and six overt ones. These 72 US operations were during the Cold War — meaning that, in most cases, the Soviet Union was covertly supporting anti-US forces on the other side. However, a look at these US actions allows us to survey the covert activities of a major power, so we can glean insight into such interventions’ causes and consequences.

2. Most covert efforts to replace another country’s government failed

During the Cold War, for instance, 26 of the United States’ covert operations successfully brought a US-backed government to power; the remaining 40 failed.

Success depended in large part on the choice of covert tactics. Not a single US-backed assassination plot during this time actually killed their intended target, although two foreign leaders — South Vietnam’s Ngo Dinh Diem and the Dominican Republic’s Rafael Trujillo — were killed by foreign intermediaries without Washington’s blessing during US-backed coups.

Similarly, covert actions to support militant groups trying to topple a foreign regime nearly always failed. Of 36 attempts, only five overthrew their targets. Sponsoring coups was more successful; nine out of 14 attempted coups put the US-backed leaders in power.

3. Meddling in foreign elections is the most successful covert tactic 

The author found 16 cases in which Washington sought to influence foreign elections by covertly funding, advising and spreading propaganda for its preferred candidates, often doing so beyond a single election cycle. Of these, the US-backed parties won their elections 75% of the time.

Of course, it is impossible to say whether the US-supported candidates would have won their elections without the covert assistance; many were leading in the polls before the US intervention. However, as the CIA’s head of the Directorate of Intelligence, Ray S. Cline once put it, the key to a successful covert regime change is “supplying just the right bit of marginal assistance in the right way at the right time.”

In an election where Clinton won the popular vote by 2.86 million but lost the electoral college, thanks to 77,744 voters in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

It’s impossible to say for sure, but the numbers were certainly close. If Clinton had replicated Obama’s 2012 turnout in those three swing states, she would have won them by more than half a million votes. Even if she had been able to convert just one percent of these states’ Trump voters, she would have won by a combined 55,000 votes.

The Clinton campaign undoubtedly had many strikes against it: high unfavorability ratings, inaccurate polling, FBI Director James B. Comey’s letter and strategic mishaps. Still, Russia’s covert campaign probably compounded these problems. Thanks to WikiLeaks’s slow trickle of hacked emails, the news cycle throughout October was flooded with embarrassing anti-Clinton stories, preventing her from building momentum after the debates.

4. Regime changes rarely work out as the intervening states expect

A Trump presidency might not be as much of a boon for Russia as hoped or feared. Clinton warned in the third presidential debate that Putin “would rather have a puppet as president of the United States.”

However, as the writer showed in a recent International Security article with Alexander Downes, leaders installed via regime change generally don’t act as puppets for long. Once in power, the new leaders find that acting at their foreign backers’ behest brings significant domestic opposition. They therefore tend to moderate their policies or turn against the foreign backer completely. In fact, there are already reports that the Kremlin is feeling “buyer’s remorse” over Trump’s victory, given his unpredictability.

5. Covert regime change can devastate the target countries

Author’s research found that after a nation’s government was toppled, it was less democratic and more likely to suffer civil war, domestic instability and mass killing, at the very least, citizens lost faith in their governments.

Even if Russia didn’t make the difference in electing Trump, it successfully undermined confidence in US political institutions and news media.

As historian Timothy Snyder pointed out, “If democratic procedures start to seem shambolic, then democratic ideas will seem questionable as well. And so America would become more like Russia, which is the general idea. If Trump wins, Russia wins. But if Trump loses and people doubt the outcome, Russia also wins.”

6. The best antidote to subterfuge is transparency

States intervene covertly so that they don’t have to be held accountable for their actions. Amid reports that Russian hackers have been emboldened by the success of the DNC hack, exposing Moscow’s hand is the first step toward deterring future attacks against the United States and upcoming elections in Germany, France and the Netherlands. It may also be the best way to dispel disinformation and restore faith in US democratic institutions at a time when 55% of Americans say they are troubled by Russian interference into the election,

The United States is beginning this effort. Congress has announced bipartisan investigations and Obama ordered a comprehensive report on covert foreign interference into US presidential elections going back to the 2008 election.

Given how serious these allegations are, and especially considering that President-elect Trump rejects the intelligence community’s consensus conclusion, releasing these reports publicly before the inauguration could help set US democracy right.

Getting Federal Budget approved should be the top priority of Shehbaz Sharif

In all probability, the incumbent government, headed by Shehbaz Sharif, is scheduled to present Federal Budget 2022-23 in the lower house on June 10, 2022. There is an overwhelming perception that the economic team hasn’t been able to put its much talked about plans and finalized the nitty-gritty.

This impression is based on the fact that Pakistan and International Monetary Fund are still polls apart, mainly because the Pakistani economic team is not paying heed to the instructions of the Fund.

Over the last six weeks the Shehbaz team has not met even the first target of raising prices of petroleum products and electricity and gas tariffs. Most of the time is being wasted on maligning the previous government headed by Imran Khan, rather than taking into account the harsh domestic and international realities.

The team faces the most tedious task of projecting income and expenses targets and meeting the deficit. It is too obvious that the coalition government has fewer options available to boost income and it will not be able to follow any austerity drive because of the mindset of the ruling elite. There is a consensus that the elected representatives will not be ready to accept any substantial cut in their salaries and perks.

It is feared that the axe will fall on federal and provincial public sector development programs. The top priority areas are: 1) improving irrigation system, 2) strengthening electricity and gas transmission and distribution infrastructures. The mounting circular debt can’t be contained without containing rampant pilferages.

For boosting country’s exports, cost of doing business has to be reduced. The top two expenses to be rationalized are interest rate and energy tariffs. The GoP expects to receive US$2 billion from IMF over the next two years. Experts believe that this much amount can be raised by exporting just one item, one million tons urea. The country has the surplus capacity to produce one million ton exportable surplus urea by ensuring uninterrupted supply of natural to the fertilizer plants.

There is no denying to that fact that huge quantities of wheat, edible oil, POL products and even urea fertilizer are being smuggled to the neighboring countries. The key problems are 1) highly porous borders and 2) restriction on the export of these commodities. These problems can be overcome by plugging boarders and bringing necessary changes in the Trade Policy.

Last but the foremost, the economic team has to come out of the illusion that hike in interest rate can help in containing inflation in the country. Let this be known to all and sundry that Pakistan suffers from cost pushed inflation. The biggest loser of hike in interest rate is the GoP. Let me reiterate that GoP is the biggest borrower and with each hike in interest rate, its debt servicing ability is marred.

 

 

 

Why should OPEC Plus increase energy supplies?

One is shocked and dismayed at the role being played by the developed countries in destroying oil producing countries one after another. Over the years they have partnered with United States in imposing embargoes and/or virtually destroying oil producing countries like Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Libya and Russia being the latest target.

It may be said that only United States can be blamed for the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Instead of facilitating ceasefire, United States is dumping tons of lethal weapons as well as billions of dollars in Ukraine to further fuel the war.

This on one hand has cut off Russian oil and on the other hand stopped export of eatables from Ukraine, adding to unprecedented inflation throughout the world.

The ministers from the Group of Seven countries on Friday called on Oil Producing and Exporting Countries (OPEC) to act responsibly to ease a global energy crunch brought on by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, even as they announced a breakthrough commitment to phase out coal-fuelled power.

The call, made at the end of three-day talks in Berlin focused on climate change, underscored that the world’s major economies were grappling with how to contain inflation and higher energy prices while sticking to environmental goals.

OPEC and its allies, a group known as OPEC Plus, to which Russia is a part has so far rebuffed Western calls for a faster increase in oil production to lower surging prices.

“We call on oil and gas producing countries to act in a responsible manner and to respond to tightening international markets, noting that OPEC has a key role to play,” said a communiqué issued at the end of the G7 talks.

“We will work with them and all partners to ensure stable and sustainable global energy supplies.” Ministers from the G7 group stressed that they would not let the energy crisis derail efforts to fight climate change.

They announced a commitment on Friday to work to phase out coal-powered energy, although failed to set a date for doing so.

The commitment was weaker than a previous draft of the final communiqué which had included a target to end unabated coal power generation by 2030.

Sources familiar with the discussions said Japan and the United States had both indicated they could not support that date. But the pledge still marked the first commitment from the G7 countries to quit coal-fuelled power.

The war in Ukraine has triggered a scramble among some countries to buy more non-Russian fossil fuels and burn coal to cut their reliance on Russian supplies.

 

 

 

 

If India can buy Russian oil, why can’t Pakistan?

In Pakistan it is common that ministers often talk about decisions to be made by other ministries. One such trespassing was committed by Minister of State for Petroleum Musadiq Malik on Friday. He said that an increase in electricity tariff would follow fuel price adjustment through withdrawal of subsidies.

Talking about PTI’s claims of 30% cheaper oil and LNG import deals with Russia, the minister said there was no agreement or memorandum of understanding on record which could prove such claims. However, he admitted that the former energy minister had written a letter to the Russian minister showing interest in purchasing oil and gas from Russia, but there was no response from the other side.

Pakistan’s ambassador in Moscow approached the Russian energy ministry, but did not get a response either on cheaper oil or gas, said Malik.

I am ready to accept that Imran Khan spread disinformation, but will Malik be kind enough to share, has the incumbent government approached Russia for the purchase of cheaper oil?

I have a glut feeling that the present government, living under the shadow of the US administration just couldn’t have dared to do that.

Lately, India expressed its intention to continue to buy cheap oil from Russia.

"We will get cheap oil from Russia," the government official told reporters on Wednesday, adding that the average price at which the world's third largest oil importer buys crude is currently above US$100 a barrel.

With concerns that conventional payment routes could be blocked due to Western sanctions on Moscow, including on banks, work was ongoing to set up a rupee-rouble trade mechanism to facilitate transactions, the official said.

Without elaborating further, the official added that no final decision had been taken and all possible ways to pay for goods were still under discussion.

While Russia's oil exports have not to date fallen under Western sanctions, some international traders have avoided buying the barrels given the disruption to payment systems and shipping.

The official also said India was increasing its dependence on coal due to surging power demand, adding that state-run Coal India will produce more coal in the coming months.

There’s been a significant uptick in Russian oil deliveries bound for India since March after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began — and New Delhi looks set to buy even more cheap oil from Moscow, industry observers say.   

China, already the largest single buyer of Russian oil, is also widely expected to buy more oil from Russia at deep discounts, they say. 

Major oil importing countries such as India and China have been grappling with higher crude prices, which have soared since last year. While oil prices have been volatile in recent weeks, swinging between gains and losses, they are still around 80% higher compared to a year ago.

“We believe that China, and to a lesser extent, India will step up to buy heavily discounted Russian crude,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler.

“Urals crude from Russia is being offered at record discounts, but uptake is limited so far, with Asian oil importers for the most part sticking to traditional suppliers in the Middle East, Latin America and Africa,” the International Energy Agency said on March 17, 2022. Urals crude is the main oil blend that Russia exports.

“As of mid-March, we see the potential for 3 million barrels a day of Russian oil supply to be shut in starting from April, but that could increase if restrictions or public condemnation escalate,” the IEA said.

 ‘Significant uptick’ of Russian oil bound for India

However, since the beginning of March, five cargoes of Russian oil, or about 6 million barrels, have been loaded and are bound for India – set to be discharged in early April, he told CNBC in an email.

“This is about half the entire volume discharged last year — a significant uptick,” Smith said. 

 “Today, the Government of India’s motivations are economic, not political. India will always look for a deal in their oil import strategy. It’s hard not to take a 20% discount on crude when you import 80-85% of your oil, particularly on the heels of the pandemic and global growth slowdown,” Kapadia told CNBC in an email.

Both countries have had a long history. Russia has supported India on a variety of areas including the provision of military and defense-related equipment — as much as 60% of the Asian country’s needs, according to Kapadia.

In the late 1950s, India also leaned on Russia for rupee-ruble currency swap arrangements to finance its imports when the former was “broke,” said Kapadia.

Russia has also supported India on crucial issues such as the dispute with China and Pakistan surrounding the territory of Kashmir.

“White House pressure to curb purchases of crude oil from Russia has fallen on deaf ears in Delhi,” said Kapadia. “The real question will be how the US and Europe respond to India should they extend an olive branch to Russia by providing them an outlet for their oil.”

 

Pakistan: Like Minister, Prime Minister also lacks rational thinking

Yesterday, I posted a blog; its title was How can Finance Minister sound so dumb? My heart was even heavier to read the news today, “Prime Minister Shehbaz announces Rs28 billion relief package to mitigate impact of fuel price hike”.

I have all the reasons to believe that the prime minister is not fully aware of nitty-gritty of managing economy of Pakistan. However, he has a team of ‘economic experts’, which is fully aware of the targets agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and prevailing state of the affairs.

Having gone through the details I arrived at the conclusion that the prime minister is either stubborn or does not listen to what is being advised by the experts.

Reportedly, on Friday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced his government would launch a new relief package of Rs28 billion per month to protect the poor from the burden of petrol and diesel price hike.

Any government has a right to pay subsidy provided it has enough money in its kitty. Pakistan already faced huge budget deficit, therefore, it can’t afford to pay untargeted subsidies.

Prime minister said under the relief package, the premier said, 14 million poor families, comprising 85 million people, would be given Rs2000 per family. I am surprised to read his statement as he is creating a new breed of baggers. He is also opening floodgates of corruption.

He said this was in addition to the monetary assistance being given to them under the Benazir Income Support Program. This relief package will be added in the next budget, the premier said.

Prime minister hasn’t come out of the shadow of Imran Khan. In his first address to the nation — a day after his government removed fuel subsidies and increased the price of petrol by Rs30, he made two points: 1) it was because of the previous government  2) he had to take the difficult decision with a heavy heart.

He termed the PTI government's decision to grant fuel subsidy a trap for the upcoming government. "Petroleum prices are increasing worldwide but they (PTI government) subsidized fuel despite knowing that the treasury cannot bear its burden."

The hike in petroleum prices is a universal phenomenon and Khan can’t be blamed for this. The added insult is huge depreciation of Pak rupee. This depreciation was mostly because of failure of the incumbent government to revive relationship with IMF.

This is also to remind the prime minister that his government is yet to announce increase in electricity and gas tariffs. Would he further increase the subsidy?

In my opinion, much of the burden of common man would be reduced if government orders 50% reduction in the remunerations of MPAs, MNAs, Senators and Ministers.  Similarly ‘fuel’ allocations should also be reduced to half.

If common man is required to pay higher prices of petroleum products, electricity and gas why perks of elected representatives can’t be reduced to half?

 

 

 

Pakistan: How can Finance Minister sound so dumb?

I am completely shocked after reading the details of press conference of Finance Minister, Miftah Ismail, particularly his rationale for the hike in the prices of petroleum products. Two of his explanations sound too comical.

The finance minister said: 1) the decision has been taken to revive the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program and 2) the government had no other option but to raise the prices, adding that the government would still bear a loss.

Many of the readers would burst into laughter after reading that the government was aware of the political repercussions of the decision, saying "we will face criticism but the state and its interests are important to us and it is necessary for us to save it."

He didn’t have the realization whatsoever, when he said, the country could have gone in the "wrong direction" if the steps were not taken.

He said the decision was a tough one for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, saying "we cannot let the state sink for the sake of politics."

He claimed the price revision was not solely due to the IMF's pressure, saying "the Fund indeed refused to grant further loan until we raise prices ... but we [also] had to take this decision after all."

One can recall, the price hike came a day after the government and the IMF failed to reach an agreement on an economic bailout mainly because of the indecision of Shehbaz Sharif government on fuel and electricity subsidies and resultant next year’s budget uncertainties.

I am inclined to draw a conclusion that the strings on incumbent government are still pulled by certain external forces, if not many of the acts sound ‘childish’.

It may be recalled that most of the analysts, even the worst critics of PML-N policies have been asking the incumbent government to announce hike in the prices of energy products and get US$ one billion tranche released.

I may also go to the extent of saying that general public was ready to accept the hike to avoid further delays in discussions with the IMF. However, Pakistanis will be right in asking the Minister, what took you so long to arrive at the conclusion which was writing on the wall?

Shehbaz Sharif government deprives overseas Pakistani from voting rights

In a highly contemptuous move, the government headed by Shehbaz Sharif has deprived overseas Pakistanis from voting on Thursday. The move simply shows that he and his team has no regard what so ever for those who have been remitting billions of US dollars every month and are the saviors of Pakistan. 

The remittance flows are one of the largest sources of foreign income for Pakistan. These prove to be more stable than capital flows and remained resilient during the coronavirus pandemic.

It is the remittances of overseas Pakistanis that have saved the country from committing default. The amount received from International is paltry around US$2 billion per annum, which alone cannot keep the country afloat.

The National Assembly of Pakistan passed the Elections (Amendment) Bill 2022 on Thursday, which seeks to remove the use of electronic voting machines (EVMs) in general elections as well as disallows overseas Pakistanis from voting.

Parliamentary Affairs Minister Murtaza Javed Abbasi presented the bill that was passed with a majority vote, with only members of the Grand Democratic Alliance opposing it.

Before presenting the bill, Abbasi presented a motion for allowing the bill to be sent directly to the Senate for its approval, bypassing the relevant standing committee. The motion was also passed by the NA with a majority vote.

Speaking about the legislation, Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar said it was of immense significance. He recalled the previous PTI government had made multiple amendments to the Election Act, 2017, including those that allowed the use of EVMs and granted overseas Pakistanis the right to vote in general elections.

He also dispelled the impression that the amendments were aimed at depriving overseas Pakistanis of their right to vote. "Overseas Pakistanis are a precious asset of the country and the government does not believe in snatching their right to vote," he said.

It may be recalled that the remittances from overseas Pakistanis rose to a record high of US$3.1 billion in April, 2022. Remittances crossed US$3 billion for the first time ever. These inflows increased 11.2% MoM and 11.9%YoY basis.

As a result, total remittances in 10 months of this fiscal year rose to US$26.1 billion, 7.6% higher than in the same period in 2020-2021. The figures suggest that Pakistani expatriates sent home more funds to support their families.