Ukraine may force Middle Eastern rivals to upgrade their toolkit

According to an article by James Dorsey, struggling to remain on the sidelines of the 21st century’s watershed war in Ukraine, Middle Eastern nations are discovering that they may be fighting their battles with an outdated toolkit.

As a result, the Ukraine war could saw off the legs from under the table of Middle Eastern détente that already are built on shaky ground.

For the past 18 months, Middle Eastern rivals – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Turkey, Iran, and Israel – have sought to hedge their bets by diversifying their relationships with major powers, the United States, China, and/or Russia.

Increasingly, the rivals are finding out that the Ukraine conflict threatens to narrow their ability to hedge. The conflict has, irrespective of the outcome of the war, reduced not only big power competition to a two- rather than three-horse race but also opened the door to Cold War-style international relations based on the principle of ‘you are with us or against us.’

Even if portraying the Ukraine conflict as a showdown in a titanic battle between democracy and autocracy may be misleading and/or overstated, it does not distract from the fact that the war has shaken, if not undermined, a major pillar of autocracy, Russia.

Even so, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel may privately welcome potential Russian sabotage of negotiations in Vienna to revive the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement, given that they view it as deeply flawed. Middle Eastern states may also find that the sabotage is one of Moscow’s last hurrahs as it is hit by harsh Western sanctions and drawn into what is likely to be an all-consuming quagmire.

As fears grew of a Russian monkey wrench, Iranian Spiritual Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei defended Iran’s support of militias in various Arab countries, including the Houthis in Yemen who have been firing missiles and drones at targets in the two countries. On Thursday, a Houthi drone attacked a refinery in Riyadh, causing a small fire.

“Our presence in regional issues is our strategic depth… (It’s) a means of power,”  Khamenei told Iran’s Council of Experts that includes the country’s most powerful clerics.

Turkey and Israel have so far been able to package their hedge by exploiting their close ties to both Russia and Ukraine to play the role of mediator even if mediation at this stage of the war has little if any chance of success.

By contrast, Saudi Arabia and the UAE find themselves far more exposed and in the ironic position of sharing a boat with their nemeses, Iran and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, as they maneuver in a geopolitical minefield. Like the conservative Gulf states, Iran too has sought to remain on the sidelines of the Ukraine conflict.

More fundamentally, the conflict could upset the house of cards on which Middle Eastern détente is built. The driving principle of that détente is to kick the can down the road on significant disagreements over issues, including political Islam and Palestine in favour of closer economic, and in the case of Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and potentially Qatar, closer security cooperation.

This week, Israel Defense Forces chief Aviv Kohavi reportedly discussed military cooperation with his Qatari counterpart, Salem bin Hamad bin Mohammed bin Aqeel Al-Nabi, during an official visit to Bahrain. Unlike Bahrain and the UAE, Qatar has refused to formalize its informal relations with Israel as long as there is no settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine resonates among the Gulf’s smaller states, three of which know first-hand what bullying by larger neighbours in violation of international law means. Iran has occupied three Emirati islands in the Gulf since 1971. Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990 while fears of a military intervention accompanied a 3.5 year-long Saudi-UAE-led economic and diplomatic boycott of Qatar.

This week, Washington Post columnist Farid Zakaria argued that the Ukraine conflict has ushered in a new era “marked by the triumph of politics over economics. For the past three decades, most countries have acted with one lodestar in mind: economic growth. They have embraced trade, technology, and domestic reforms, all to produce more growth. Those kinds of choices are possible in an atmosphere in which one does not have to worry that much about the core issue of national security.”

That could be as true for the Middle East as it is for much of the world, particularly if sitting on the fence becomes less of an option and fault lines sharpen if the Vienna talks fail.

Already, the crown princes of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed, may find that they overplayed their cards when they allegedly refused to take a phone call from US President Joe  Biden to discuss cooperation in increasing oil production to reduce prices.

Mr. Biden ultimately spoke to King Salman, with Mr. Bin Salman listening in although not participating. Mr. Biden had earlier offered to talk with Mr. Bin Salman, breaking a boycott of the crown prince because of his alleged involvement in the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Mr. Bin Zayed is proving to be the most overexposed. The UAE has already begun to dither on the oil production with its powerful ambassador in Washington, Yusuf al-Otaiba, suggesting that the Emirates was considering a hike, only for Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei to reiterate the country’s commitment to current OPEC+ production levels.

Emirati officials insisted that the two statements were not contradictory. They said the UAE favoured a production increase but was bound by OPEC+ agreements. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on March 31.

The manoeuvre was partly an Emirati effort to cover the country’s flank and partly a demonstration of the UAE’s ability to help reduce prices. Oil prices dropped 13 per cent after Mr. Al-Otaiba’s remarks.

The influx of Russians looking for places to safely park their money and assets; leaks about real estate holding of oligarchs in Dubai, including ones belonging to now sanctioned individuals; stepped-up private aircraft traffic between Moscow and Dubai, and the sighting of Russian-owned superyachts off the UAE coast could not come at a worse time.

Earlier this month, the Financial Action Task Force, a Paris-based international anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism finance watchdog, grey listed the UAE for lagging in identifying illicit funds flowing into the country. The listing that groups the UAE alongside 22 others, including Pakistan, Syria, South Sudan, Yemen, and Myanmar, dealt a blow to the country’s image as a go-to global financial hub.

 “What separates Dubai from other traditional havens for dirty money is the amazing secrecy. As a fugitive in Dubai, you can snatch up property, stash your yachts and set up bank accounts with very few obstacles. It’s also one of the few autocracies that’s a destination — rather than a transit location — for illicit flows,” said Jodi Vittori, who co-authored a study of Dubai’s financial flows.

Some Bangladeshi media outlets echoing western anti Russia campaign: Russian ambassador

Russian Ambassador to Bangladesh Alexander V Mantytskiy has slammed a section of Bangladeshi media for what he called ‘biased approach’ in their coverage of the situation in Ukraine and Russia’s actions there. He described it as ‘deliberate efforts’ to damage Dhaka-Moscow relations.

“I consider the biased approach of certain Bangladeshi media towards the situation in Ukraine and Russia’s actions is a result of deliberate efforts by those forces that have always sought to undermine mutually beneficial cooperation between the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, which started 50 years ago,” he said in an open letter to editors of print and electronic media, heads of radio and TV channels in Bangladesh.

The ambassador referred to 1971 when Bangladeshis overthrew — with the active support from India and the then USSR — the rule of non-Bengali oppressors.

He said the Russian-speaking people of Donbas in East Ukraine have been struggling to obtain the same rights for eight years while suffering from ‘genocide unleashed by the Kyiv regime’.

The time is ripe for Russia to come to the rescue once again, for the same cause, to ensure the right to speak the mother tongue and to end language-based discrimination, said the Russian envoy.

“I hope that through my open letter, your readers will be able to get acquainted with an alternative point of view on the developments around Ukraine,” said the ambassador.

Against the backdrop of ‘anti-Russia campaign and blatant Russo-phobic hysteria’ from western mainstream media, the ambassador said certain Bangladeshi newspapers and broadcasters ‘widely echoed and spread’ those.

He said his letter to editors is an effort to explain to the Bangladeshi readers once again the goals and tasks behind the ‘special military operation’ of Russia in Ukraine.

According to the Russian ambassador, the goals are: to protect Russian-speaking civilians in Ukraine subjected to genocide by the Kiev regime for eight years; to eliminate neo-fascism; to prevent the development of nuclear weapons in Ukraine; and to stop the deployment of NATO military bases in Ukraine.

Tasks, according to him, are: to demilitarize and to free Ukraine from Nazi ideology; to put an end to neo-fascism that has raised its head in Ukraine after being defeated in the Great Patriotic War; to eliminate military threats on the border of the Russian Federation; to disarm aggressive entities of Ukraine, posing threat to peaceful coexistence; and to identify and punish persons who have committed crimes against the civilian population of Ukraine and citizens of the Russian Federation by legal procedures in the courts of the Russian Federation.

“We do not plan to occupy Ukrainian territory. We are not at war with the Ukrainian people. We do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force. We have explained many times that the situation in Ukraine has evolved in such a way that it has come to pose a direct threat to Russia’s security,” said Ambassador Mantytskiy.

 

Zelensky a Thug and Ukrainian Government incredibly evil, says Madison Cawthorn

Republican Madison Cawthorn said that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is a thug and denigrated the Ukrainian government. Karl Rove, a Republican strategist, first mentioned Cawthorn made the remarks while speaking to a crowd in Asheville recently.

Other GOP lawmakers were quick to denounce Cawthorn’s statement, accusing him of favoring Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Like 90% of the country is with Ukrainians and is opposed to Putin,” said Lindsey Graham, who lately came under fire for calling for a Russian ‘Brutus’ to assassinate Putin. “So when you see a member of Congress say things like this, the one thing I want you to know, they are outliers.”

“To my colleague in the House, I would push back and say it’s not Ukraine that is invading Russia,” responded Joni Ernst. “It is Russia invading Ukraine.”

Two North Carolina Republicans hoping to defeat Cawthorn in the GOP primary later this year also took the opportunity to condemn Cawthorn’s remarks.

“Let’s be clear,” said Chuck Edwards on Twitter. “The thug is Vladimir Putin. We must unite as a nation to pray for President Zelensky and the brave people of Ukraine who are fighting for their lives and their freedom.”

“I do not understand how anyone in American public office could call Zelensky a ‘thug’ while Ukraine is under such vicious assault,” said Michele Woodhouse in a statement posted to her campaign website. “Conservatives in my district are terrified that we will lose this republican seat to a leftist Biden democrat if Cawthorn somehow wins the nomination.”

However, Cawthorn has made clear that he does not approve of Russia’s actions either.

“The actions of Putin and Russia are disgusting,” Cawthorn said on Twitter on March 10, the same day the footage was released. “But leaders, including Zelensky, should not push misinformation on America.”

“I am praying for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people,” Cawthorn added. “Pray also we are not drawn into conflict based on foreign leaders pushing misinformation.”

Cawthorn is one of few GOP lawmakers to have criticized Ukraine, though a larger number of members of Congress, on both sides, have called for the United States not to send troops to Ukraine or impose a no-fly zone.

The proper US response to the Russian invasion has divided the old guard of the GOP—including figures like Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Graham who have called for heavy US involvement in the conflict—from more populist-leaning newcomers like Cawthorn, Senate candidate J.D. Vance, and conservative commentator Tucker Carlson, who have demanded that the US stay out of the conflict.

In a statement to a news outlet, a spokesman for Cawthorn explained his position further.

“Cawthorn supports Ukraine and the Ukrainian President’s efforts to defend their country against Russian aggression, but does not want America drawn into another conflict through emotional manipulation,” the spokesman said.

 

Missiles land near US Consulate in Iraq

According to The Epoch Times, at least a dozen missiles landed on targets in northern Iraq, hitting an area near the US Consulate in the city of Erbil in the early hours of Sunday, the state news agency quoted the Directorate General of Counter Terrorism in Kurdistan as saying.

“Several missiles fell on the city of Erbil,” said Governor Omid Khoshnaw, the Iraqi News Agency (INA) also reported. Erbil is the capital city of the autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq.

“No victims or casualties were reported after Erbil blasts,” Saman Barzanji, Health Minister in Iraq’s Kurdistan Province, was cited as saying.

A spokesman for the Kurdish regional government said there were no casualties. A US State Department spokesperson called it an ‘outrageous attack’ but said no Americans were hurt and there was no damage to the US government facilities in Erbil.

No flight interruptions have been reported at Erbil airport.

Footage posted on social media shows multiple explosions. The Epoch Times cannot independently verify the footage.

Sky News Arabia earlier reported that five long-range ballistic missiles targeted the site of a US Consulate currently under construction there. It later reported that 12 ballistic missiles were launched from outside Iraq, citing a statement from the counter-terrorism forces in the Kurdistan region of Iraq.

According to the outlet, one of the missiles fell on the headquarters of the Kurdish satellite channel K24, which is affiliated with the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq, Masrour Barzani. The building is near the US Consulate in Erbil.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the latest attack.

“Seeing reports of Iran-backed attacks on the US consulate in Iraq,” Lisa McClain said on Twitter. “This aggression shows we should absolutely end all Iran Nuclear Deal negotiations now. We must also never buy Iranian oil.”

In the past, US forces stationed at Erbil’s international airport complex have come under fire from rocket and drone attacks that US officials blame on Iran-aligned militia groups. There have been no such attacks for several months.

The last time ballistic missiles were directed at US forces was in January 2020 in retaliation for the killing of Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s Quds Force (IRGC-QF), at Baghdad airport earlier that same month. There were no deaths; however, many US service members suffered head injuries from the strike.

Fars News Agency, which is managed by the IRGC of Iran’s Islamist regime, appeared to link the missile attack to the killing of Soleimani.

Jason Brodsky, Policy Director at United Against Nuclear Iran, wrote on Twitter, “The Soleimani factor in the #Erbil attack tonight is important. Soleimani’s birthday was on March 11, pro-IRGC media are boasting the attack tonight occurred at same time of his death at 1:20 am, the revenge attack on 01/08/20 also occurred at 1:20 am.

“And there are reports the Fateh-110s were used tonight, which also made a cameo appearance in the Soleimani revenge attack on US forces in #Iraq on 01/08/2020. Would note #Iran has also launched Fateh-110s before on #Iraq, e.g. in September 2018 on KDPI HQ in Koya.”

 

Ukraine NATO membership not on agenda, says NATO Secretary General

There is a lot of misinformation out there in the conventional media. It is full of agendas, narratives, and bias. The world has reached a turning point. Now people demand the Truth. They want to read and watch the news free of bias. In today’s blog we explore, how Ukraine was made a big fool by the architects of proxy wars. 

Ukraine’s NATO membership was never imminent and will not be on the agenda in the near future, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Friday.

“It has been clear for a long time that membership for Ukraine was not something that was imminent, not something which is relevant in the near future,” he said at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum.

Stoltenberg emphasized that Ukraine has the right to pursue NATO membership and the organization respects every nation’s choice.

Nonetheless, it’s up to the 30 NATO allies to decide whether Ukraine is ready for membership, he said.

Ukraine’s pursuit of NATO membership plays a critical role in the Russia-Ukraine war.

It may be recalled that in February 2019, then-Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed a constitutional amendment committing the country to become a member of NATO and the European Union after the parliament passed the bill.

Poroshenko told the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine days after he signed the amendment that joining NATO was a guarantee of security for Ukraine.

On the Russian side, Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russia needs to lay down red lines to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO; saying that Ukraine’s growing ties with the alliance could make it a launch-pad for NATO missiles targeted at Russia.

However, the NATO allies were shy about clarifying their stance on letting Ukraine join NATO, though it was clearly not on their agenda before Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

As the war intensified and caused millions of people to flee Ukraine, some NATO leaders started to admit that Ukraine’s membership is not on the agenda and voice objection to membership for the former Soviet Union country openly.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on March 4 that Ukraine’s NATO membership “will not take place.”

“I also made it clear in Moscow and in my visit that this option [Ukraine’s membership of NATO] is not on the table and will not take place,” he said during an interview with German public broadcaster ZDF.

“I said publicly that we all know that Ukraine’s NATO membership is not on the alliance’s agenda today,” he added. “That was understood by the American president, that [was] also understood by the French president.”

Scholz said he shares Russian President Vladimir Putin’s security concern and clarified to Putin that Ukraine will not be allowed to join NATO.

“The Russians were worried about the control issue of their security. [Putin was worried] that NATO has a military setup and rockets in Ukraine targeting Russian territory. That is why we tried to make it clear that this will not occur,” he elaborated.

Carter Center Launches Initiative to Educate US Policymakers on Indian Democracy Issues

According to The Wire India, Carter Center, a United States-based non-governmental organization that focuses on conflict resolution and the advancement of global understanding, is establishing an initiative to educate US policymakers on issues related to democracy and human rights in India.

The initiative, titled I-Policy, hopes to host dialogues and publish original policy research to keep stakeholders informed of key developments in Indian democracy, with emphasis on those that influence US-India ties.

I-Policy will be established in Washington D.C. where Tanmay Misra has been appointed as I-Policy’s strategy officer and Shelby House, the researcher-editor.

I-Policy will be supported by an advisory board whose members include Saman Zia-Zarifi (secretary general of the International Commission of Jurists), James Traub (columnist at Foreign Policy and senior fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation), and Vinod Jose (executive editor at The Caravan magazine). A press release by Carter Center announces that the move aims at offering a resource for American policymakers to ensure that India’s democracy remains robust, especially given rising challenges in the country.

The initiative will launch its official website, to showcase relevant and diverse research and analysis, son.

Carter Center’s CEO Paige Alexander has noted in the release that backsliding in India, the world’s largest democracy, have repercussions for countries everywhere, according to experts.

It is noteworthy that the press release observes, “In recent years, India has seen a significant decline in global indices that measure the strength of democratic norms and practices. Areas of concern include freedom of the press, judicial independence, and protection of minorities.”

India has been listed under countries considered ‘bad’ for journalism and is among the most dangerous places in the world for journalists, according to Reporters Without Borders. In response, The Ministry of Information and Broadcasting had said it does not agree to the conclusion.

Adding that economic stagnation has compounded these problems, the Center says that US companies – including technology firms – have reported difficulties navigating India’s sensitive landscape.

“Failure to address such challenges in a timely and effective manner poses risks to economic prosperity, geopolitical stability, and the US-India strategic partnership,” it says.

Mystery of India firing a missile into Pakistan

India said on Friday it had accidentally fired a missile into Pakistan because of a ‘technical malfunction’ during routine maintenance, giving its version of events after Pakistan summoned Indian envoy to protest.

Military experts have in the past warned of the risk of accidents or miscalculations by the nuclear-armed neighbors, which have fought three wars and engaged in numerous smaller armed clashes, usually over the disputed territory of Kashmir.

Tensions have eased in recent months, and the incident which may have been the first of its kind, immediately raised questions about safety mechanisms.

"On 9 March 2022, in the course of a routine maintenance, a technical malfunction led to the accidental firing of a missile," Indian Ministry of Defence said in a three-paragraph statement.

"It is learnt that the missile landed in an area of Pakistan. While the incident is deeply regrettable, it is also a matter of relief that there has been no loss of life due to the accident."

The ministry said the government had "taken a serious view and ordered a high-level Court of Enquiry."

Pakistani officials said the missile was unarmed and had crashed near the country's eastern city of Mian Channu, about 500 kilometers (310 miles) from the capital, Islamabad.

Pakistan's foreign office summoned Indian charge d'affaires in Islamabad to lodge a protest over what it called an unprovoked violation of its airspace, saying the incident could have endangered passenger flights and civilian lives.

Pakistan warned India to be mindful of the unpleasant consequences of such negligence and take effective measures to avoid the recurrence of such violations in future.

Ayesha Siddiqa, an expert on military affairs and South Asian matters, tweeted that "India-Pak should be talking about risk mitigation".

Both states have remained confident about control of nuclear weapons but what if such accidents happen again and with more serious consequences?

One senior Pakistani security official told Reuters, on the condition of anonymity that the incident had raised alarm and could have escalated into a critical untoward situation.

"The admission that it was a missile was very nonchalant," he said. "What does this say about their safety mechanisms and the technical prowess of very dangerous weapons? The international community needs to have a very close look at this."

The official said it was possibly a BrahMos missile, a nuclear capable, land attack cruise missile jointly developed by Russia and India.

According to the US-based Arms Control Association, the missile's range is between 300 kilometers (186 miles) and 500 kilometers (310 miles), making it capable of hitting Islamabad from a northern Indian launch pad.

The Pakistani official wondered if the incident meant that India had missiles in ready to launch positions and pointed at Pakistan, and that too without any safeguard of a command and control system.

A Pakistani military spokesman told a news conference on Thursday that a high-speed flying object originating from the northern Indian city of Sirsa had crashed in eastern Pakistan.

"The flight path of this object endangered many national and international passenger flights both in Indian and Pakistani airspace as well as human life and property on ground," he said.

A Pakistan air force official said the object, flying at 40,000 feet (12,200 meters) and three times the speed of sound, had flown 124 kilometers (77 miles) in Pakistani airspace.

Happymon Jacob, a professor of international studies at New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, said both sides had handled the situation well.

"It gives me great hope that the two nuclear weapon states dealt with the missile incident in a mature manner," he wrote on Twitter. "New Delhi should offer to pay compensation for the Pak house that was destroyed."