United States admits its failure in acquiring airbase near Afghanistan border

The US military has already started conducting over the horizon operations as it withdraws from Afghanistan, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Thursday. 

Speaking to the Senate Armed Services Committee, Austin declined to confirm a report in The New York Times that the military is considering continuing to provide air support to Afghan forces if Kabul or another major city starts to fall to the Taliban after US troops leave.

But he said that capabilities such as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) have already started to be flown into Afghanistan from outside the country during the withdrawal.

“In terms of our efforts to establish over-the-horizon capability, I would just point to the fact that, as we have retrograded a lot of our capability out of country, we are doing a lot of things over the horizon now,” Austin said. “ISR is being flown from Gulf countries. A lot of our combat aircraft missions are being conducted from platforms in the Gulf. And so we have the capability now to do that.”

As all American troops withdraw from Afghanistan in line with President Biden’s order to be out by September, US officials have insisted the military will be able to keep terrorism threats in check through what’s known as over the horizon operations, or those launched from outside the country.

But plans for exactly how those operations will work and where those troops could be based are still being crafted.

The United States does not have any basing agreements with Afghanistan’s neighbors, and various geopolitical concerns, such countries’ relations with Russia, appear to make any such agreements unlikely.

Pentagon officials have touted the military’s presence elsewhere in the Middle East, such as the Gulf region, as being able to provide over the horizon capabilities, but Gen. Frank McKenzie, the top US commander in the region, has also warned that means longer flying times to and from Afghanistan, which in turn means less time for assets to be over the country.

At Thursday’s hearing, Austin said the military is looking to shorten the distance for those over the horizon forces.

“What we are looking for is the ability to shorten the legs going forward by stationing some capability in neighboring countries. That is still a work in progress,” he said, adding he does not have a timeline for when the plan will be done.

Another open question as US troops withdraw has been the fate of Afghans who helped them and are at risk of being hunted down and killed by the Taliban.

Lawmakers and outside groups have been pushing the Biden administration to evacuate those Afghan allies to a safe location such as Guam amid slow processing of their requests for Special Immigrant Visas.

Pressed on the issue Thursday by Sen. Angus King, neither Austin nor Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley specifically committed to evacuating Afghans, but vowed, as they have before, to “keep faith” with those who helped the United States.

 “In terms of specific actions, Department of State has the lead on the Special Immigrant Visa program and some other programs with respect to those Afghans that have supported us,” Milley said. “That planning is working through the system right now, but I can commit to you that it's my belief that the United States government will do what is necessary in order to ensure the safety and protection of those that have been working with us for two decades.”

King replied that “the term working through the system is what gives me some concern,” to which Milley responded, “I understand.”

“This is very important to us and we're pushing as hard as we can on our end to move as fast as we can,” Austin added. 

Is Netanyahu hoping against hope?

The musicians aboard the Titanic continued playing as the ship went down, acting as if they were oblivious to the disaster taking place that would soon submerge them. Similarly, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made a point of looking like he is continuing to do his job, as if this coming weekend will not be his final days at the Prime Minister’s Residence. 

There are no moving trucks. There has been no speech acknowledging defeat. And of course, there has been no contact whatsoever with incoming Prime Minister Naftali Bennett or anyone close to him.

There are interesting references in private conversations to Ariel Sharon’s last-minute success in blocking Shimon Peres from forming a government in 1990. Sharon helped Agudat Yisrael MK Eliezer Mizrachi go into hiding, protected by bodyguards hired by Sharon, leaving Peres to face the wrath of his wife, Sonia, who made a rare appearance in the Knesset plenum’s visitors’ gallery for naught.

Five of the seven MKs in Yamina have been assigned bodyguards to protect them, as has New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar. But the guards are there to enable them to vote, not to help them avoid voting. If anyone goes into hiding, it might be backbench Ra’am (United Arab List) MKs Walid Taha and Saeed Alharomi.

It would only take one MK to vote against the coalition for it to lose its narrow majority and keep Netanyahu in power. Sources close to those involved in preventing the government’s formation said there was still a 15% to 20% chance that they could manage to stop it.

They said that the leak of the coalition guidelines to Channel 12’s political analyst Amit Segal was proof that there is somebody within the new coalition who is working to sabotage it. Clauses in the coalition deal that would have prevented a Netanyahu comeback were changed after the backlash from the leak that night, and that was already an achievement for Netanyahu.

Knesset Speaker, Yariv Levin has deliberately set the vote on the new government for Sunday in order to add an extra day between the publication of the coalition guidelines and the vote, hoping to maximize the effect of an outcry to potentially wavering MKs. Levin also got away with scheduling it for late Sunday afternoon, not the morning, to allow more time for tension to build.

Only after the agreements are signed will the final appointments be revealed. Labor leader Merav Michaeli has been hiding the role of MK Gilad Kariv, a Reform rabbi whose appointment to certain roles could be considered very controversial. Nachman Shai, who is not an MK, is expected to be named Diaspora Affairs minister, but Kariv, who finished second in Labor’s Knesset primary, will either receive a deputy minister’s post in a sensitive ministry or be put in charge of an influential Knesset committee.

Shas, United Torah Judaism and Likud intend to use Kariv to attack the coalition, continuing their efforts to turn Reform into a dirty word. Kariv’s support for the American left-wing lobby group J Street will undoubtedly be highlighted. Netanyahu already attacked J-Street’s founder, Jeremy Ben-Ami, on social media this week in an effort to paint the Bennett-Lapid leadership as a “J-Street government.”

The comparisons of the new coalition to Iran, Syria and North Korea are just the start. Netanyahu’s associates say he truly believes the entire world will be threatened if Israel’s enemies perceive the Jewish state as weakened without him in power.

His critics, of course, say his actual motivation is to avoid the wrath of his wife, Sara, not Iran. It is no wonder that all compromise proposals Netanyahu negotiated had he been part of a coalition kept his family living on Balfour Street, even during the time he would have rotated out of the premiership.

With that much at stake, it is no wonder that Netanyahu will leave no stone unturned ahead of Sunday’s vote. Only if the vote happens and he is officially out of power will Netanyahu play his final song and get ready to move.

“It’s not over yet,” said a source close to Netanyahu. “He always prepares for the worst scenario, but there is more happening than meets the eye. Let’s see on Sunday.”

Why does United States want an air base in Pakistan?

According to reports coming through western media the Government of Pakistan (GoP) refuses to publicly acknowledge that it has allowed the CIA operations and will want to proceed cautiously with a new relationship. In the recent past, the US has used a base in Pakistan to launch drone strikes against militants but, the facility had to be vacated in 2011, when US relations with Pakistan unraveled.

William J. Burns, Director CIA, recently made an unannounced visit to Islamabad to meet the chief of the Pakistani military and Head of the Directorate of Inter Services Intelligence. US Defence Secretary Lloyd J. Austin also has had frequent calls with the Pakistani military chief about getting the country’s help for future US operations in Afghanistan.

Historically United States has maintained bases in Pakistan and details can be tracked down starting from cold war era spying of USSR. At one time it became a security threat for the very existence of the country.

During long Afghan war the bases located in Pakistan were to be used for logistic support, but their use for drone attacks was common. While the rulers tried to cover up the deal, public dislike got louder with the passage of time.

The saga of the use of these bases is very interesting, at one time air support was provided to Afghan fighters, known as Taliban involved in Jihad against USSR. However, in post 9/11 era these bases were used against the same Taliban, labeled bad Taliban. In this regard Shamsi base remained in limelight for a long time.

All the times the United States has used ‘arms twisting’ tactics to get control of airbases in Pakistan. In this regard, a conspiracy theory got public attention, when the aero plane of chief of Pakistan Air Force was blown up in air. A number of other senior officers on board were also killed. It was said that his plane was blown up only because he was vehemently opposing establishment of the US air bases in Pakistan.

Alleged killing of air chief, makes solving of jigsaw puzzle easy. Afghanistan is a landlocked country and air support from Arabian Sea is not only too expensive, but time consuming also. Therefore, base/bases have to be established in countries enjoying common border with Afghanistan.  

India could be used but it is too far. United States does not enjoy cordial relations with Iran. Qatar is also too far. In such limiting conditions only Pakistan offers sustainable and cost effective option.

For the incumbent government of Imran Khan allowing establishment of the US bases in Pakistan is not an easy task. It is but obvious that this decision could become a security threat for Pakistan.

 

An uneasy calm prevailing in Pakistan’s neighborhood

Having lived in turmoil area for decades, I feel a bit uncomfortable when a clam prevails in Pakistan’s neighborhood, because it is usually followed by some uncalled-for incident. 

Most of us know that focus of the United States has shifted away from South Asia and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to South China Seas. India is still struggling to control widespread pandemic. Iran is getting ready for Presidential elections scheduled for 11^th June 2021. On top of all a ceasefire has been established between Israel and Hamas.

Afghanistan

As per plan, most of the US soldiers will leave Afghanistan over the next few weeks, which will require ensuring greater air-surveillance and setting up quick response teams to tackle any emergency, mainly because uninterrupted supply lines have to be maintained for thousands of the US contractors that will continue to work in Afghanistan after the departure of troops.

One of the fears is that Afghanistan will once again plunge deep into civil war. This time the situation will be more alarming because of presence of groups supported by United States, Russia, China, India and Iran. In the past Pakistan had faced influx of Afghan refugees, but this time the threat is greater, because of presence of hundred and thousands of militants, who may slip into Pakistan in search of safe heaven.      

India

At present India faces multiple issues, besides COVID. These include boarder issues with China, growing resentment in Bangladesh and Afghanistan. Lately, Maldives has also been offended because of Indian infiltration in its affairs and India not supporting Palestinian cause. India also faces expulsion from Iranian Chabahar port after Iran and China signed various economic cooperation agreements with Iran.    

Iran

A rather complex situation has emerged after the announcement of Presidential elections in Iran. Not only number of candidates is large, but internal rifts are being created to show cracks in the system. The biggest setback is slow down of JPCOA negotiations. It is also becoming evident that there is no likelihood of easing of sanctions in near future. Pakistan has been a victim of imposition of US sanctions on Iran, particularly due to abandoning of Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline.

Iran has been openly accused of proxy wars in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. Israel has drilled into the minds of Arabs, “Iran is a bigger threat as compared to Israel”. This has not only smashed unity of Muslim Ummah, but also causing transfer of billions of dollars to the United States and other countries manufacturing lethal arms.

Is Israel handing over control of Gaza to Egypt?

There are many rumors that the Egyptians are planning to return to the Gaza Strip. Many people here are convinced that the Egyptian-sponsored reconstruction work is part of a plan to pave the way for a permanent Egyptian security presence in the Gaza Strip.

The Egyptians are working to achieve Palestinian national reconciliation and reunite the West Bank with the Gaza Strip. Egypt has invited representatives of several Palestinian factions to Cairo as it supports the establishment of a Palestinian state comprising of West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem.

It may be recalled that during the 1948 War of Independence, the Arab League established the “All-Palestine Government” to govern the Egyptian-controlled Gaza. Palestinians living in the enclave were issued “All-Palestine” passports. Egypt did not offer them citizenship. After the dissolution of the All-Palestine Government in 1959, Egypt continued to control the Gaza Strip until 1967. The Egyptians never annexed Gaza and chose to administer it through a military governor.

After the establishment of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas on 21^st May 2021, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Sisi has pledged US$500 million to help rebuild the houses and buildings that were destroyed during the fighting. Dozens of Egyptian bulldozers, cranes and trucks entered the Gaza last Friday. This created an impression among the Palestinians that Egypt is planning to return to the coastal enclave it ruled between 1948 and 1967.

It is not clear if Egypt wants to go back to the days when it was administering the Gaza. But Sisi’s decision to contribute to the reconstruction effort shows that he wants to be heavily involved with everything concerning Gaza.

Some critics go to the extent of saying that the presence of the Egyptian construction teams in the Gaza means that Hamas and other Palestinian factions will not be able to resume the rocket attacks on Israel.

They say, “It will be hard for Hamas to initiate another round of fighting with Israel when there are many Egyptians inside the Gaza Strip. If Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad starts firing rockets at Israel while the Egyptian construction teams are working in the Gaza, the two groups will get into trouble with Egypt.”

The Head of Egypt’s General Intelligence Service, Abbas Kamel, last week made a rare visit to the Gaza, where he met with leaders of Hamas and other Palestinian factions and discussed with them ways of maintaining the ceasefire and the reconstruction efforts.

It is on record that relations between Egypt and Hamas were strained after Sisi came to power in 2013 after deposing President Mohamed Morsi and outlawing the Muslim Brotherhood. In 2015, an Egyptian court listed Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, as a terrorist organization. Morsi and other members of the Muslim Brotherhood were later charged with spying for Hamas and Iran.

Until a few years ago, Egypt’s state-controlled media had accused Hamas of helping Muslim terrorists who attacked Egyptian security forces in the Sinai. Hamas has strongly denied the charges, saying it does not meddle in the internal affairs of any Arab country. The relations between Egypt and Hamas have improved over the past few years.

Jerusalem flag march cancellation gets mixed response from Muslims and Zionists

A flag march through the Old City of Jerusalem was called off on Monday after Israel Police rejected the organizers' request that participants be allowed to march through the Old City's Damascus Gate. The march was viewed as a possible way to set off violence on the eve of the swearing in of a new government in the Knesset.

Defense Minister Benny Gantz held a briefing on Sunday to discuss the march and urged the police to cancel it. 

On Sunday, Hamas Spokesperson Khalil al-Hayya warned that ‘provocations’ against Palestinians should be stopped, including the flags march, so that this upcoming Thursday ‘is not like 11^th May, or Jerusalem Day, when rockets were hurled towards Jerusalem.

In protest, Palestinian activists groups are planning a counter-march for Thursday, N12 reported.

Israel Police emphasized that the current route of the march has been rejected, but that it could be approved if the route were to change to exclude Damascus Gate.

Religious Zionist MK Bezalel Smotrich called the decision a shameful surrender to terrorism and Hamas threats. His fellow party member, Itamar Ben-Gvir, said that he would still march the planned route. "I do not plan to give up," Ben-Gvir said.

Likud MK May Golan, who was heavily criticized on Monday for referring to Yamina and New Hope Party leaders Naftali Bennett and Gideon Sa'ar as suicide bombers due to their decision to form a government without Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said she would join Ben-Gvir in marching anyway.

The Joint List released a statement in response to the cancellation which said that "Racist hate demonstrations and calls for murder are not protected under freedom of expression and protest. Especially when it comes to occupied territory."

"We will continue to stand firm against the Right's attempts to ignite Jerusalem and the entire region and lead to bloodshed," the statement added.

Originally, the march was scheduled to pass through the Damascus Gate near the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood. Organizers said that the march was needed to make up for the one that was cancelled last month on Jerusalem Day due to the escalation in tensions on the Temple Mount and with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. 

A few hours before the controversial Flag March was scheduled to take place, the Sovereignty Movement is expected to launch the 'Greater Jerusalem' project, calling for the expansion of Jerusalem to include Gush Etzion, Mevaseret, Ma'aleh Adumim and parts of the Binyamin Regional Council.

The announcement of the project is scheduled to take place during the third Youth Sovereignty Conference in the Oz veGaon Nature Reserve in Gush Etzion and will "focus on the centrality of Jerusalem in the life of the people of Israel and the State of Israel," the group wrote in a statement.

The leaders of the sovereignty movement, Yehudit Katzover and Nadia Matar, said that the choice to focus on the conference on the centrality of Jerusalem in the life of Israel and the State of Israel stems, among other things, from a reaction to violent riots which shook mixed-ethnicity cities nationwide last month and the threats against Israel which were seen coming from Iran, Turkey, Hamas and Hezbollah.

"The struggle for the path of Zionism and the righteousness of the path of Zionism begins in Jerusalem," they said.

"The enemies of Israel clearly recognize the centrality of Jerusalem and they wave it again and again as a pretext for attacking Israel," the statement said, adding that last month's riots "also began under the pretext of Arab defense of Jerusalem."

"In the face of all this, the clear and distinct voice of the Israeli youth is imbued with the belief in the righteousness of his way, aware of his mission in the Zionist chain, and especially well aware of the importance and centrality of Jerusalem, the eternal capital of the eternal people," the statement continued.

According to Katzover and Matar, the conference's purpose is not just a celebration of Jerusalem. They are also hoping it leads to renewed calls for a unilateral annexation of territories which are currently under the control of the Palestinian Authority.

"In this spirit," Katzover and Matar said in their statement, "the third conference of the sovereignty youth will be held, and from it will emerge a renewed call for the application of Israeli sovereignty over the entire country from the Galilee through Judea, Samaria, Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley to the Negev."

Critics of unilateral annexation of the West Bank say that forcing a regime on Palestinians without supplying them with full and equal voting rights would result in a form of apartheid and that forcing one while supplying them with equal voting rights would mean an end to the Jewish majority in Israel. 

The organizers of the conference said that at the end of the gathering, which has so far enrolled hundreds of youths from all over the country, buses will allocated to take interested participants to the march.

The Sovereignty Movement released another statement after police announced the cancellation, saying "It is very unfortunate that we are folding under Hamas threats. The sovereignty of Jerusalem is violated and our dignity as a free people in our country and our capital is trampled."

"The enemies feel and understand the spiritual power of Jerusalem, they know very well that Jerusalem is the center of our being and therefore harm it," the statement said, again referring to Hamas.

The statement reiterated the 'Greater Jerusalem' project, saying "Jerusalem must grow, become stronger and become a metropolis with satellite cities in order for its national and international status to be strengthened, so that its demographics change with an absolute Jewish majority."

The Sovereignty Movement has not announced whether the buses to central Jerusalem will be called off due to the march's cancellation.

Maldives turning foe for India and Israel

Maldives, a small country with a population of around half a million people with Muslim majority, faces likely retaliation from India for supporting Palestinians. In this endeavor,  support of Israel can't be ruled out. While the probability of an assault is low, both the countries can follow the typical 'regime change' mantra of United States.

Maldives have suspended all relations with Israel – including imposing a ban on all Israeli products ‑ because of the atrocities committed against the people of Palestine. Lately, President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih said via Twitter that the people of Maldives stand in solidarity with Palestine.

If one can recall, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih won the most votes and was sworn in as the Maldives new president in November 2018. There was also a change in foreign relations. His predecessor Abdulla Yameen was politically very close to China with some ‘anti-India’ attitude, but President Solih reaffirmed the previous ‘India-First Policy’ and Maldives and India strengthened their close relationship.

The spokesperson to the President, Mohamed Mabrook Azeez, added that the stance of Maldives was clear. “We stand against injustice and in solidarity with the Palestinian people’s struggle to secure their inalienable right to statehood,” Mabrook said.

He further said all relations between Maldives and Israel were now suspended, including the import of Israeli products. Import of most Israeli products was banned by Maldives since 2014. Only special medical products could be imported, and that require a special permit.

During the recent conflict in Palestine the Maldivian public showed their support for the Palestinian cause by using the colours of the Palestinian flag all over the island nation.

The public outcry to ban Israeli tourists from Maldives has also increased. An emergency motion was submitted to the Parliament by opposition party Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) member, Ahmed Shiyam, calling to ban Israeli tourists.

It is worth mentioning that The Maldives established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1965, as it was the third state to recognize Maldives. But Maldives suspended the ties in 1974.

In 2009, under President Mohamed Nasheed, Maldives signed cooperation agreements with Israel on tourism, health, education, and culture. In 2010, the Israeli government sent a team of eye doctors to treat patients and train local medical personnel in Maldives.

In May 2011, the Maldives’s then-foreign minister, Ahmed Naseem, became the first top official from the Maldives to visit Israel. However, the renewed relationship did not develop into full diplomatic relations.

But in July 2018, under President Abdulla Yameen, Maldives terminated the cooperation agreements with Israel.

In 2020, after UAE and Bahrain recognized Israel and it was reported the government had discussed establishing ties with Israel, but the Maldivian foreign minister denied having initiated discussions regarding establishing ties with Israel.