Pakistan: PTI or Devil’s Advocate

 Although, some of the political parties appear to be sympathizers of Taliban and its offshoot Teherik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) but of lately Pakistan Therik-e-Insaf (PTI) has emerged as the Devil’s advocate. This is not an allegation but an inference drawn from the latest statement of Imran Khan, Chairman PTI given at Peshawar while talking to media. 

As reported in media Imran Khan urged the government to declare ceasefire if it was serious about holding peace talks with militants in Pakistan. PTI chief also called on the government to allow militants to open up office in Pakistan, similar to the Afghan Taliban office in Qatar to facilitate the dialogue process.

Khan said that on one hand, there were talks of holding negotiations but on the other hand war was still ongoing. He asked how it would be possible to hold peace talks without the ceasefire. He also said that after the fourth All Parties Conference (APC), it was decided to hold peace talks; however no initiative has been taken as yet.

While talking about Peshawar church bombing which killed 81 people, Khan alleged that the tragedy had been politicized. He said 170 blasts had taken place in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in the past nine years under previous governments, but PTI had not politicized those tragedies.

To put the record straight it is necessary to bring it to the notice of PTI Chairman that during the election campaign while ANP, MQM and PPP meetings were attacked by TTP for supporting the war on terror, the banned outfit spared PML-N and PTI.

Now these two political parties are vehemently pleading negotiation with the terrorist outfits. Strangely, the government is being asked to stop operation against the perpetrators who take pride in claiming responsibility of killing of innocent people, soldiers and officers of Pakistan Army and other law enforcing agencies, sabotaging and destroying sensitive installations.

One completely fails to understand logic behind Imran’s demand of allowing the terrorists to open office in Pakistan. It seems completely insane because TTP is a banned outfit; it had killed thousands of innocent citizens, personnel of security forces and also caused enormous damage to sensitive installation, including Mehran Naval Base in Karachi, where aircrafts responsible for the surveillance of coastal line were destroyed.

The prerequisite for negotiations with any group at war with the government is that it lays down weapons and stop killing innocent people and attacking personnel of law enforcing agencies.  It seems PML-N and PTI are begging the terrorist to come to negotiation table rather than telling them categorically that ‘talks can’t be held unless these banned outfits lay down arms’. These two political parties are constantly ignoring messages coming from TTP, which claims to be at war with Pakistan Army.

Keeping in view the recent happenings in Syria one is often forced to draw the conclusion that the militants at war with Pakistan Army are being funded, supplied the most lethal weapons and also given training to use these are supported by ‘Enemies of Pakistan’. The sole purpose of these perpetrators is to weaken Pakistan economically and plunge the country into anarchy.

The perpetrators are killing people in the name of Islam but are not attacking occupying forces in Afghanistan. In fact they have become accomplice of CIA by creating a justification for prolonging stay of Nato troops in Afghanistan.

By weakening Pakistan they are also facilitating India in the creation of its hegemony in the region. The United States in the biggest proponent of granting India status of ‘Regional Super Power’. This objective can’t be achieved without causing serious dent to Pakistan.

Pakistan US relationship: Need for overcoming trust deficit

Historically diplomatic relationships between Pakistan and United States have often suffered due to changing policies of the super power, which has its own agenda to pursue. Despite fighting the US proxy war in Afghanistan for nearly four decades the US mantra ‘do more’ continues. Fighting this proxy war has the biggest fallout in the shape of growing militancy in Pakistan, influx of arms and drug and drug money. 

The situation is really odd for Pakistan as it was asked to support Taliban when USSR attacked Afghanistan in an attempt to get access to warm waters. The friends turned foe when United States attacked Afghanistan on the pretext that Taliban had provided safe haven to OBL. As the time came for withdrawing US-led Nato troops from Afghanistan United sates divided Taliban in two faction, good and bad. This put Pakistan at a very embarrassing point because Taliban decided to take revenge from Pakistan Army for supporting Nato troops. It made Pakistan jittery as bad Taliban were moved from Afghanistan to Syria to fight yet another proxy war of United States. No one really knows what will be the next US move.

As regards dealing with Taliban, particularly it offshoot TTP and its accomplice LeJ, Pakistan has no option but to weed them out as these outfits are openly challenging writ of the government. They are not only killing innocent people but martyring soldiers and sabotaging sensitive installations. On top of all they (perpetrators) very proudly claim responsibility of killing and sabotaging. Ironically, armed forces and elected civilian government don’t seem to on the same wavelength. The policy of appeasing Taliban followed by the civilian government doesn’t allow the forces to undertake ‘operation clean up’ or an open war as some critics prefer to call it.

It is also evident that United States wishes to promote India as ‘Regional Super Power’ by assigning it a role in Afghanistan and Iran, assigning responsibility for maintain security in the Indian Ocean and also to check China. All these objectives put Pakistan at a disadvantages position because of: 1) unresolved Kashmir issue, 2) Pakistan’s relationship with Iran and China and 3) Pakistan’s stake in Afghanistan. The dichotomy of US policy is evident from India getting in reward ‘nuclear technology for civilian use’ for deserting Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project. While India has been allowed to continue its oil purchases from Iran, Pakistan is being pressurized to also quit Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project or get ready to face economic sanctions.

One can say it categorically that the US policies have always remained tilted towards India and Pakistan continues to play the role of ‘mercenaries’ in Afghanistan. Despite that Pakistan has been hosting millions of Afghan refugees for nearly four decade, some of the ‘US Touts’ are inflicting the worst damage on Pakistan, particularly in Karachi. Worst of all these elements have been trying to create a breach between the two sects, Sunnis and Shias, to plunge the country deep into anarchy. Destroying peace in Karachi is the first target to put Pakistan’s economy in complete disarray.

Added to this is the US support for ‘Garand Baluchistan’. The unrest in the province is affecting oil and gas exploration in the province. Any action against the perpetrators is projected as exploitation of Balochs and used for raising demand for an independent Baluchistan. If Pakistan asks the United States to change its policies, it must be heeded for the good of the region and not as a disagreement with the super power.

Oil Vultures

While globally debate is going on regarding United Sates getting ready to attack Syria and the entire world is concerned about the potential fallout of this attack, oil vultures are concerned about movement of crude price, in case the US undertakes this assault.

 

US President Barak Obama faced stiff resistance at the G-20 summit against attacking Syria without UN Security Council endorsement that, which is confusing these vultures. They still believe that the US strike on Syria would spread unrest and further disrupt Middle East crude supplies that would lead to hike in oil prices. Though, Syria is not a major oil producer, yet any regional contagion has kept the markets on a tight leash.

Many analysts are sitting with crossed fingers and exploring what will happen if a military action against Damascus ultimately gets underway — despite the odds. Pundits seem divided; some are deeply concerned about the long term impact on oil markets and the instability that it might cause in the region. They are of the view that prices per barrel could easily go up to US$130 or even beyond. 

Others are stressing that any military action in Syria is more likely to cause prices to fall because markets have already risen in anticipation of a US intervention and there is little actual oil at risk in Syria. They believe that if Syrian civil war spread over two years hasn’t sparked an energy crisis, US intervention isn’t going to make a difference. But markets may get some jolts on the possible unwinding of the massive stimulus program by Federal Reserve. 

“The higher the run-up prior to the event (strike on Damascus), the greater the post-event decline,” underlined Morgan Stanley in a note last week. In a study of major conflicts in the Middle East since the 1973 oil crisis, Morgan Stanley found that in most Middle Eastern conflicts — including when Israel bombed an Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 and the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 — oil prices were lower six months after the initial surge.

Another reason some investors expect a drop in oil prices is the fact that markets tend to factor in geopolitical concerns before any event. The rise means there is potentially a greater risk of a price correction if money managers run for the exit at the same time.

This report should be an eye opener for Muslim oil producing countries that are demanding the United States to attack Syria at the earliest and are also assuring of the fullest monetary support. They have a myopic view that assault will hike oil price. They are ignoring reports emanating from Washington that Tehran has ordered militants in Iraq to attack the US Embassy and other American interests in Baghdad in the event of a military strike on Syria

The point to be kept in mind is that Israel is taking full advantage of the volatile situation. While Syria remains gripped in turmoil, Israel has given exclusive exploration rights to a 153-square mile radius in the southern part of the occupied Golan Heights to a subsidiary — of the New York-listed company Genie Energy — advised by former vice president Dick Cheney and whose shareholders include Jacob Rothschild and Rupert Murdoch.

Syria: US War Mania

It seems that after having failed in mulling support from other countries, except Saudi Arabia for attack on Syria the United States is intends to undertake the assault at its own, even contrary to the wishes of US citizens.

The major setback came when British Parliament rejected the move and other countries also followed its footprints. The decision of the Britain parliament should have been an eye opener for the sole surviving super power.

It is feared that any direct involvement of United States can plunge many countries in a zero sum game that has became the hallmark of the US foreign and military policies. At present US soldiers wearing combat uniform are present in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya and their sole purpose seems to be killing the locals rather than maintain peace.

Ironically, the US Congress has hardly asked its President and his advisers why do they wish to bring regime change, topple governments and worst of all keep on supplying arms to the rebels in various countries.

The US administration hasn’t learn any lesson even after the killing of its ambassadors/diplomats, the most recent being in Libya and earlier in the blowing up of aircraft of Pakistan’s President Ziaul Haq.

A closer look at the ongoing proxy US war in Syria, clearly establishes that despite supplying millions of dollars and tons or lethal weapons to the rebels President Assad has remained in power.

Over the last two years nearly one hundred thousand Syrians have been killed and the entire country has become a heap of debris.

It is feared that the rebels supported by the US have used gas with an ultimate objective of maligning Assad’s regime. This perception seems to carry weight if one looks at whatever has happened in the recent in Egypt.

The United States followed it often repeated mantra of declaring Hosni Mubarak, a failed and corrupt ruler, only after after he became redundant.

Elections were held and public verdict came contrary to the US expectations, it was never thought that Muslim Brotherhood could win the election.

First attempts were made to keep Morsi under pressure but ultimately Egyptian Army Chief was asked to topple and arrest the elected president. When public came out on streets army was advised by the US to open fire and now army chief is being used as scapegoat.

It has been highlighted repeatedly that a proxy war is being fought in Syria, where most of the countries aspiring to be the regional or world super powers are supporting Syria, only because they want to inflict defeat on the United States, the sole surviving super power.

Ironically, the US is losing its patience because it considered Assad another Saddam. It may not be wrong to say that since Saddam killed hundreds and thousands of Iraqis, he had lost public support, as against that Assad continues to enjoy support of Syrians. 

One needs to find reply to a question, why the US is adamant at destroying Syria?

The reply is simple without destroying Syria the United States can’t get the entire region under its claws. The involvement of Russia, China, some GCC countries, Iran and Lebanon has made it difficult for the US to get a walkover.

Not only that the US is getting desperate its also completely ignoring the possible fallout of attack on Syria.

Even a small mistake can destroy peace of the region and also affect countries that have been supporting terrorism around the globe, in the name of Jihad.

Pakistan’s Survival at Stake

Killing of around 100 people is less than 24 hours in selected cities of Pakistan clearly shows that there is some thing grossly wrong, which even the rulers are not able to understand. Some cynics say the rulers understand the ground realities but can’t take any action against the perpetrators. Attacks on security personnel are a clear indication that insurgents are openly challenging writ of the government.

Sunday’s attacks seem to be aimed at proving a few points the most important being; if personnel of security services are not safe or can’t protect themselves, how can they protect ordinary people and more importantly frontiers of the country?

Perpetrators are trying to create breach between Sunnis and Shias, which is purely foreign agenda. The countries keen in maintaining their hegemony have exploited this in Iraq and Afghanistan but are facing a lot of resistance in Syria.

Over the last four decades the external forces have created fanatics in Pakistan, who consider all others Muslims ‘inferior’ and are also killing people belonging to minorities, indiscriminately.

Ironically, some of the political parties still have soft corner for these fanatics and are suggesting negotiations with them rather than taking stern action against them. One completely fails to understand the logic as these fanatics openly claim responsibility of killing but some quarters are still insisting on negotiations.

One of the points of concern is that since 2001 these perpetrators have killed people and the number ranges from 40,000 to 80,000. However, the most regrettable point is that under the prevailing system not even one perpetrator has been punished.

Ironically, those at the helm of affairs have not been able to distinguish between political activist and militants. They also fail to recognize the fact that around the world rebel groups are created, provided fund and arms only to plunge the countries into anarchy.

One need not go through the history but a closer look at whatever is happening in Egypt, Turkey and Syria is enough to open eyes of Pakistanis. When Hosni Mubarak became redundant a movement was sponsored against him and general elections were also held. Now the same external powers have facilitated dismissal Muhammad Morsi. Almost a similar story is being enacted in Turkey.

These external powers have been supporting rebels in Syria for last two years and nearly 90,000 innocent people have been killed. Interestingly, the external forces are still blaming the Syrian government for these killings but at no point accept the fact that they are responsible for these killings.

At times it is being felt that this world is being ruled by mad people who have only one objective, how to kill more people? On the face value, these people look most respectable, as they own businesses worth trillions of dollars, in reality they are ‘merchants of death’. They are the sellers of lethal weapons and are always busy in creating conflicts among people and countries so that they can sell more arms.

Historically, Pakistan has remained in focus because of its location as it is surrounded by three most volatile countries i.e. Afghanistan, India and Iran. The global and regional super powers have special attraction for all these countries and wish to further consolidate their position by following centuries old saying “Divide and Rule”.

Pakistan: Dilemma of Policy Planners

With every passing day the conviction seems to be getting stronger that PML-N government headed by Mian Nawaz Sharif hardly has any sense of priority. Many of its announced plans lack coherence and at the best can be termed wishful thinking and worst of all complacency is based on perceptions rather than ground realities.

The country is suffering from severe balance of payment crisis, which demands following multi pronged strategy, negotiations with International Monetary Fund (IMF) being the top priority. It seems the government has hardly done any homework prior to commencing negotiations with the lender of last resort.

Those at the helm of affairs suffer from the illusion that the United States needs Pakistan rather than realizing the harsh reality that India is being promoted as regional super power and also being assigned an important role in Afghanistan after the pullout of US-led Nato forces.

The entire focus of Senator Ishaq Dar seems to be on mobilizing additional taxes and withdrawing subsidies.  PML-N government has been talking about resolution of circular debt issue by borrowing more but completely ignoring the urgent need to overcome the two most contentious issues: rampant pilferage and poor recovery. Injection of billion of rupees may reduce the debt for the time being but it will reappear soon.

Some of the analysts are of the view that Mian Sahib is surrounded by people having vested interest, seeking funds on concessional terms for establishing power generation facilities. These analysts also believe that another ‘power scam’ is in the making.

To substantiate their argument they say that the country has installed capacity of over 28,000MW but actual utilization hovers at less than half. Therefore, the top priority should be running of power powers at optimum capacity utilization rather than adding new capacities.

Some of the cynics say that Since Dar is an accountant by profession his entire focus is on profit and loss statement and balance sheet rather than achieving synergy, economy of scale and off course there is no focus on restoring confidence of investors.

At present Pakistan is suffering from ‘confidence deficit’ which is even worse than budget deficit and trade deficit put together. Local investors are shy because of looming energy crisis and deteriorating law and order situation.

Mobilizing additional tax without putting the economy on track is ‘hoping against hopes’. Since bulk of Pakistan’s revenue collection comes from indirect taxes, people must have ample purchasing power. Bleak outlook for the economy, eroding purchasing power and shrinking job opportunities forces people not to spend. On top of all failure of the government to contain price hike adds to the woes of masses.

There is an old saying ‘action talks louder than words’ but in case of PML-N there is hardly any action but big talk, mostly blame game. Both Pervez Musharraf and Asif Ali Zardari are being held responsible for the poor state of economy.

People listened to this during the election campaign but now want action to remove some of the malice. PML-N had sought 100 days to put the economy on track but its real challenge will be getting the budget endorsed by the IMF to enter into an agreement with the Fund.

Ironically most of the members of National Assembly can’t comprehend impact of budget proposals and impact of these on masses. They consider clapping their sole duty during the speeches of Prime Minister and Finance Minister and saying ‘I second’ their sole responsibility. In return members are given huge development funds which are mostly spent on development of their home town rather than those areas which need the funds most.

Though, it was expected that collectively ANP, MQM, PPP and PTI will emerge as strong combined opposition, not much has been delivered as yet. Many analysts fear that the present opposition will also be the ‘friendly opposition’ only. Since some of the leading parties have formed government at province, these are effectively part of ruling junta and not the opposition.

Pakistan: Musharraf Treason Case

On the floor of National Assembly Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif has given a policy statement on trial of ex-President and retired General Pervez Musharraf. He wants this treason case to go to its logical conclusion, with the consensus and support of all the political parties.

However, some constitutional experts warn that this could open Pandora’s Box. Some experts go to the extent of saying that going further on this sensitive case could destabilize the country, which can prove detrimental to the continuation of PML-N government but more importantly initiating extreme instability in the country.

Some of the experts say that ‘Mian Sahib is running too fast and may lose the breath too early’. They say Mian Sahib should have waited for a while and focused on other pressing issues. In fact the biggest threat is fast changing scenario in Afghanistan, which could have severe impact on Pakistan. United States is directly negotiating with Taliban and also seems adamant at giving a major role to India, which certainly does not bode well for Pakistan.

Some experts go to the extent of saying that ranks and files of Pakistan Army will not tolerate life imprisonment or hanging of a retired General. Some of those who abrogated the Constitution of Pakistan will also have to face the music. If one person has to face the brunt, how can others remain insulated? They refer to Ziaul Haq who made Mian Sahib provincial minister, which led to his deserting the then Prime Minister, Mohammad Khan Junejo, in an attempt to get even closer to Ziaul Haq.

While Mian Sahib seems adamant at punishing Musharraf, a question also has to be answered, who issued instructions not to allow lending of Musharraf’s plane in Pakistan? The point has to be kept in mind that not only the life of Chief of the Staff was put at stake but had the plane ran out of fuel, all the passengers on board would have lost their lives.

Some insiders say that efforts were also made to push the plane into Indian Territory. They say India would have immediately shot down the plane or minimum brought it down, arrested, trialed and hanged the in service General and Chief of the Staff. This would have provided India and ideal opportunity to punish the ‘Kargil Hero’. Over the years Mian Sahib has been saying that Musharraf had taken the decision at his own without even informing him.

One of the conspiracy theories is that United States wishes to close ‘Musharraf Chapter’. This does carry some weight because aircraft carrying Ziaul Haq along with many generals, who played key role in Afghan resistance against USSR, was blown up. Ejazul Haq, son of Ziaul Haq has been saying over the years that blowing up of plane was not an accident but an act of sabotage, in which the US Ambassador in Pakistan and a brigadier general also lost their lives.

Some of the critics say that over the years Pakistan Army and ISI has been maligned badly and pushed to the wall. Musharraf has also been accused of conspiring to kill Akbar Bugti and Benazir Bhutto. Bothe these allegations are aimed at portraying that Army has been involved in some heinous crimes. Interestingly Musharraf is being trialed for issuing instructions to kill or abrogating the Constitution but hardly any action is being taken against those who claim responsibility of killing of dozens of people and attacking sensitive installations.

Courtesy: The Financial Daily