Why Biden-Abdullah meeting termed eminent?

King Abdullah of Jordan is scheduled to meet President Joe Biden at the White House on 19th July 2021. He becomes the first Arab leader to be welcomed by the US president since he took office in January this year.

The official visit marks a crucial reset to US-Jordanian ties, which had suffered under President Donald Trump. The last time King Abdullah visited the White House was in June 2018.

Announcing the visit Jordan’s Royal Court said it will “cover strategic ties between Jordan and the United States and means of bolstering them across several sectors, as well as the latest regional developments.”

On 7th July, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said the visit will “highlight the enduring and strategic partnership between the United States and Jordan, a key security partner and ally of the United States. It will be an opportunity to discuss the many challenges facing the Middle East, and showcase Jordan’s leadership role in promoting peace and stability in the region.”

She added that President Biden looks forward to working with the king “to strengthen bilateral cooperation on multiple political, security, and economic issues, including the promotion of economic opportunities that will be vital for a bright future in Jordan.”

For King Abdullah it is vital that he renews US support for his role as guardian and custodian of Muslim holy places in East Jerusalem — an issue that had come under threat during the last months of Trump’s presidency.

In a bid to woo Saudi Arabia into concluding a separate peace deal with Israel, Western media reports suggested that Netanyahu and Kushner might have been ready to offer Riyadh custodianship of Al-Aqsa Mosque, replacing King Abdullah.

Saudi Arabia has repeatedly supported Jordan’s special role at the holy mosque. One thing is clear that President Biden supports the new détente between Israel and Jordan as exemplified by the recently unannounced visit by Bennett to Amman and the ensuing agreement to supply water-parched Jordan with an additional 50 million cubic meters of Israeli water.

In recent years Jordan had become increasingly dependent — to the anger of many Jordanians — on Israeli natural gas and water. Israel also agreed to allow Amman to increase its exports to the West Bank to US$700 million annually, from US$160 million.

Before he left Amman the king met with the Palestinian President, who, according to sources, authorized him to take any steps needed to convince the US administration to revive the peace process. Both Amman and Ramallah lost a lot of political sway during and after the recent Israel-Gaza war, when Hamas emerged as a key player in Palestinian politics at the expense of the Palestinian Authority.

Jordan has no formal ties with Hamas, while Abbas failed to reconcile with the movement, which controls Gaza. Following the death of a Palestinian activist, while in the PA’s custody in late June, protests broke out in the West Bank calling for Abbas’ ouster. The Palestinian leader, whose term as President ended almost a decade ago, has never been more unpopular among his own people. His own Fatah movement has splintered as he postponed legislative and presidential elections earlier this year.

For King Abdullah there are other issues that he would like to discuss with the Biden administration as well. Jordan’s economy is suffering with record unemployment and poverty rates and a soaring public debt. Public pressure is mounting on the government to provide socio-economic solutions — a key factor in a sedition plot involving the king’s half-brother and a former aide aimed at destabilizing the kingdom, which the Biden administration helped expose last March.

Behind closed doors the king, who is accompanied on the trip by Queen Rania and Crown Prince Hussein, will probably ask President Biden to find ways to exempt the kingdom from penalties under the Caesar Act regarding trading with Syria, Jordan’s northern neighbor. The war-torn country is in bad need of basic goods and materials that Jordan can provide, especially to southern Syria. The White House will almost certainly put pressure on the king to speed up the process of adopting genuine political and economic reforms while improving the kingdom’s human rights and freedom of speech records.

But from a strategic angle, the two countries are boosting their military and intelligence cooperation. Earlier this month the US announced that it was redeploying military assets and personnel from Afghanistan and Qatar to Jordanian bases. This comes after the two countries signed a controversial defense agreement last January that was not ratified by the Jordanian parliament.

As the two countries mark more than 70 years of bilateral ties, there is no doubt that the King, who will also meet senior administration officials; Congress leadership; members of the Senate Armed Services, Foreign Relations, and Appropriations committees; and members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, will return to Amman feeling much better about the future of this strategic relationship. The question is how will this relationship shape the future of Jordan in a fast changing region?   

Iranian dissidents visiting Israel to seek help for bringing regime change in Iran

A delegation of Iranian dissidents and expatriates plans to pay a solidarity visit to Israel next week with officials from the Trump administration.

The mission is being organized by the Institute for Voices of Liberty (iVOL), a policy institute dedicated to encouraging freedom, human rights and democracy in Iran.

The mission will include eight Iranian expats and four former officials and is meant to demonstrate support for Israel in light of the latest attacks by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, alleged to be Iranian proxies.

The delegation will meet with Foreign Ministry representatives, visit an IDF unit and hear from security experts. It plans to visit towns in the Gaza Strip periphery, as well as the northern border to learn about the threat from Hezbollah. The participants will also tour historic sites in Jerusalem.

The Abraham Accords show there is potential for greater peace, security and prosperity in the Middle East and that Iranians also deserve to take part, despite their hostile and antisemitic regime, former US Deputy National Security Advisor Victoria Coates was quoted as saying.

Coates cited an op-ed she and Len Khodorkovsky, a former senior adviser to the US special representative for Iran, wrote in The Jerusalem Post, calling for a “Cyrus Accords” between Israel and Iranians, named after Cyrus the Great, the Persian king who allowed Jews to build the Second Temple in Jerusalem.

“This iVOL mission is an important step towards realizing that vision; once the Islamic Republic joins so many other ruthless, authoritarian regimes on the ash heap of history,” Coates said.

Khodorkovsky is expected to join the delegation, as well as Ellie Cohanim, former Deputy Special Envoy to Monitor and Combat Antisemitism, who was born in Iran, and US Department of Defense strategist Adam Lovinger.

Most of the members of the group will be traveling to Israel for the first time. They will meet with Israelis of diverse backgrounds and religions during their visits to Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and other locations near the Gazan and Syrian borders targeted by the regime in Iran and its terrorist proxies.

The organization “exists to reflect the voices of freedom-seeking Iranians,” said iVOL Board Member Bijan R. Kian, an Iranian-American who was convicted of illegal lobbying connected with the investigation of former National Security Advisor, Michael Flynn.

“We organized this historic mission to Israel to show the solidarity of free Iranians with the people of Israel and to separate freedom-seeking people of Iran from the criminal, inept and corrupt regime that has forced itself upon them,” he said.

Iranian dissidents, Institute for Voices of Liberty, Israel, Iran, Cyprus Accord Middle East,

South Africa facing widespread social unrest

Widespread social unrest gripping South Africa following the arrest of a former president saw key logistics arteries for the continent shuttered as rioters torched trucks and caused millions of dollars in damage to stores and warehouses, spurring concerns about looming shortages.

The Road Freight Association says more than 35 trucks have been either wholly burnt out or very badly damaged since July 10 on key routes in KwaZulu-Natal province, home to sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest port of Durban, as well as in the coal-rich Mpumalanga region and the economic hub of Gauteng, where Johannesburg is located.

The arson led to the closure of the N3 highway that links Durban to Johannesburg and is also the start of trucking routes used to transport goods and commodities to and from nations as far north as the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Estimating the operational-asset costs to haulers at about US$21 million and counting, RFA Chief Executive Officer Gavin Kelly said that’s just the “tip of the iceberg.”

“The cost to the South African economy will run into millions of US$ lost as business confidence from foreign investors, and those who use South Africa as a transit hub, turn away from us,” Kelly said. “The ‘Gateway to Africa’ has been lost and these attacks will further cement the move of transit freight from South Africa to neighboring countries.”

The freeze on N3 movement is hurting citrus farmers in the country, which is the world’s biggest exporter of the fruits after Spain and is in the middle of its shipment season, said Christo van der Rheede, the executive director of AgriSA, the nation’s largest commercial farmers’ group.

“They can’t harvest their produce because they can’t transport it to the harbor,” he said. Van der Rheede has also received reports of sugarcane fields that have been razed, livestock theft and intimidation of farmers.

Russia warns US against deploying its troops in Central Asian States

Reportedly, Russia has strongly warned the United States against deploying its troops in the former Soviet Central Asian nations following their withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow conveyed the message to Washington during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s summit with US President Joe Biden in Geneva last month.

The warning comes as the US military said that 90% of the withdrawal of US troops and equipment from Afghanistan is complete. Biden said the US military mission in Afghanistan will conclude on 31st August 2021.

“I would emphasize that the redeployment of the American permanent military presence to the countries neighboring Afghanistan is unacceptable,” Ryabkov said. “We told the Americans in a direct and straightforward way that it would change a lot of things not only in our perceptions of what’s going on in that important region, but also in our relations with the United States.”

He added that Russia has also issued the warning to Central Asian nations. “We cautioned them against such steps, and we also have had a frank talk on the subject with our Central Asian allies, neighbors and friends and also other countries in the region that would be directly affected,” Ryabkov said in an interview published in a magazine.

On Monday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized that Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are all members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and any presence of foreign troops on their territories must be endorsed by the security pact. He added that none of those countries have raised the issue.

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan both host Russian military bases. Kyrgyzstan, which hosted a US military base that supported operations in Afghanistan, closed it in 2014.

Uzbekistan, which also hosted a US base, ordered it shut in 2005 amid tensions with Washington.

“I don’t think that the emergence of new American military facilities in Central Asia would promote security in the region,” Lavrov said.

The Biden administration has reportedly considered Uzbekistan and Tajikistan that border Afghanistan, as well as Kazakhstan, as possible staging areas for monitoring and quickly responding to possible security problems that may follow the US military’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.

“I don’t think that anyone is interested in becoming a hostage to such US policy and intentions, and in inviting retaliation,” Lavrov said.

The Russian foreign minister questioned what results would be achieved with a small US presence outside Afghanistan when a 100,000 strong NATO force inside the country “failed to do anything.”

“Most probably, they simply want to ensure their military presence in Central Asia and be able to influence the situation in this region.”

As the American and NATO troops were swiftly pulling out, the Taliban have made quick gains across the country. They claimed on Friday that they now control 85% of Afghanistan’s territory.

Russian officials have expressed concern that the Taliban surge could destabilize Central Asia.

Taliban advances already have forced hundreds of Afghan soldiers to flee across the border into Tajikistan which called up 20,000 military reservists to strengthen its southern border with Afghanistan.

Last week, a senior Taliban delegation visited Moscow to offer assurances that the insurgents’ advances in Afghanistan do not threaten Russia or its allies in Central Asia.