Iranian oil exports to China expected to hit 856,000 barrels per day in March 2021

Iranian crude oil exports to China are surging and expected to hit record highs in March despite the US sanctions on the country’s oil industry. Chinese imports of Iranian crude oil are expected to hit 856,000 barrels per day in March, the most in almost two years and up 129% from last month, Bloomberg reports.

Iranian shipments to the province of Shandong, which accounts for a quarter of China’s refining capacity, have surged so much this month they’re causing congestion at ports and filling up storage tanks.

The surge in China’s crude imports from Iran comes as many of other Iranian oil buyers are still waiting for the US President Joe Biden to remove sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

“The surge is related to lower costs but also, politically, to a sense that this might be an interim period between the outgoing administration and the Biden administration figuring out its position on Iran,” said Michal Meidan, Director of the China Energy Program at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

Iranian oil production and exports have been both increasing over the past few months despite the US sanctions and the Iranian Oil Ministry has announced its readiness for boosting the country’s crude oil output to the pre-sanction levels in case of the US rejoining the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Back in January, the data from SVB International and two other firms indicated that Iranian oil exports were climbing in January after a boost in the fourth quarter despite US sanctions.

Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister Amir Hossein Zamaninia had said earlier that the country started boosting its oil production and would be able to reach pre-sanction levels within two months.

Iranian oil won’t create any surplus in the oil market and the market will be able to accommodate the country’s maximum oil output of up to four million barrels a day, Bloomberg quoted Zamaninia as saying on the sidelines of the Iran Oil Show in Tehran in late January. 

Brewing Israel Jordan crisis

The fragility of one of Israel’s most important regional allies ‑ Jordan ‑ with whom security ties are often described as a cornerstone of regional stability – was underscored by a series of apparent tit-for-tat diplomatic price-tag attacks, most recently.

On Wednesday, Israel prevented Hashemite Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah from visiting the Temple Mount. Jordan in retaliation refused on Thursday to authorize Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flight path to the United Arab Emirates, causing the trip's cancellation.

It's the latest diplomatic skirmish in a 26-year relationship fraught with crises brought on by religion, geo-politics and violence.

Netanyahu might have glossed over the incident, pointing out that the flight path was later approved, but it's harder to brush away the persistent simmering tensions.

Here is a look at 10 Israeli-Jordanian crisis points, many of which center around the Temple Mount, as the present crisis does.

1. Prince Hussein denied access to Temple Mount

Israel might have barred Hussein from entering Israel because he wanted to bring a security retinue that was larger than agreed. But the issue at the heart of the dispute is about control of Jerusalem’s Temple Mount, the most holy site for Jews and third-holiest site for Muslims.

There were those in Israel who felt the size of the security details was a deliberate show of Jordanian power and a statement against its authority over the site, which lies within Israel’s sovereign borders.

Israel wants Jordan to accept its sovereignty over the Temple Mount.

The Hashemite Kingdom’s special custodial relationship to the Temple Mount, known to Muslims as al-Haram al-Sharif, is one of the central pillars on which rests a monarchy whose family claims to descend from the Prophet Mohammed, and which takes pride in a long history as the keeper of holy Islamic spaces.

The British in 1924 during its rule over Mandatory Palestine granted the Hashemite Kingdom a special custodial role over the al-Aqsa compound.

The 1994 Israeli-Jordanian Peace Treaty enshrined that role, but events over the last decade have made Jordan nervous about the future status of that relationship. Wednesday's border snafu was a stark reminder that its custodial relationship could be in jeopardy.

2. West Bank annexation

Israeli willingness to advance a plan to annex 30% of the West Bank over the last two years, including the Jordan Valley, created an immediate public backlash among the Jordanian public that could have threatened to undermine the Hashemite Kingdom, had Netanyahu not suspended the plan in August 2020.

Palestinians make up over 50% of the population in Jordan, so tensions in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict often translate into public pressure on the Jordanian leadership to take a hasher tone with Israel.

3. A Saudi role on the Temple Mount?

There was public speculation that in order to entice Saudi Arabia to normalize ties with Israel, the Trump administration had considered weakening Jordan’s sole role as custodian of al-Aqsa Mosque compound by offering a role to the Saudi Arabian monarchy, the House of Saud.

It was a move that would have been a violation of the 1994 peace treaty, and which struck a particularly sensitive nerve because of the competition between the Hashemites and the House of Saud as the spiritual keepers of the Islamic faith.

A century ago, Hashemites lost control of Mecca and Medina to the House of Saud, so its only foothold on Islamic holy spaces is now its special custodial role over the al-Aqsa compound in Jerusalem.

4. Israeli drive to change Temple Mount status quo

The Temple Mount, where the biblical Temple once stood, is one of the most volatile flash points in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

It is governed by a very careful arrangement among Israel, Jordan and the Islamic Wakf (Islamic trust), which administers the site that everyone can visit but where only Muslims can worship. The ban on non-Muslim worship has been in place since the aftermath of the Six Day War.

Former US president Donald Trump’s peace plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict alluded to a change in that status quo that would allow for those of all faiths to pray there, including Jews.

There has been a growing political movement within the Israeli Right, including by ministers of Netanyahu’s own Likud Party, to allow Jewish worship at the site.

Netanyahu has continually spoken of maintaining the status quo, but persistent comments by his ministers as well as legislative drives in the Knesset has given Jordan cause for concern.

Jordan's persistent warnings about the erosion of the Temple Mount status quo has, in turn, inflamed Palestinians and helped spark violent incidents in Jerusalem and the West Bank.

5. Temple Mount metal detector crisis

A brief crisis erupted in the summer of 2017 after two Israeli policemen were shot to death by the Lion’s Gate entrance to Jerusalem’s Old City by three Israeli-Arabs, who had just visited al-Aqsa Mosque compound for the weekly Friday prayers. After the attack they ran back in the direction of the Temple Mount, where they were killed by Israeli police.

To prevent further such attacks, Israel placed metal detectors at the entrance to the Temple Mount to ensure that Muslim worshipers were not armed. The decision sparked immediate violent protests in Jerusalem and the West Bank, and created an immediate diplomatic backlash with Jordan. By July 25, Israel decided to remove the detectors and calm was restored.

6. Dispute over Jordanian detained

In 2019, a dispute broke out between the two countries when Israel detained but initially refused to release two Jordanians it suspected of security transgression, Hiba Labadi and Abdul Rahman Miri. Israel released them only after Jordan recalled its ambassador.

7. Violence at the Israeli Embassy compound in Amman

In July 2017, a violent incident occurred in an apartment within the Israel Embassy compound in Amman that left two Jordanians dead. According to Israel, a Jordanian worker violently stabbed the embassy’s deputy director of security, while moving furniture in his home. The landlord was also present. The security guard defended himself, fatally shooting 16-year-old Mohammad Jawawdeh, and also mortally wounding the landlord, Bashar Kamel Hamarneh.

8. Jordan shuts down Island of Peace

In light of Israeli-Jordanian tensions, King Abdullah in 2019 refused to extend a land lease with Israel that had been an annex to the 1994 peace treaty between the two countries. Under the terms of the deal, privately owned Jewish land near the Sea of Galilee was given to Jordan, but Israelis were allowed to farm the site and tourists could visit what had become known as the Island of Peace.

9. Island of Peace massacre

In 1997, during Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s first term in office, a Jordanian soldier killed seven Israeli school girls who were on a field trip to the Island of Peace. Ahmed Daqamseh was tried and convicted in Jordan, which released him 20 years later in 2017.

10. Failed poison plot by Mossad against Khaled Mashaal in Jordan

A Mossad plot to poison former Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal in Jordan in 1997 was foiled by the country’s security forces, but only after the poison had been injected. Israel gave Jordan the antidote and freed Palestinian prisoners, including Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, in exchange for the release and return of the two Mossad agents.

Will Saudi Arabia quit Yemen war?

Reportedly, Biden administration has ramped up pressure on Saudi Arabia to bring war in Yemen to end and the Kingdom has reluctantly accepted to go along with the US initiative. In his early days as President of United States, Joe Biden sent a clear message to Saudi Arabia that the days of Washington giving unwavering support for Saudi military operations in Yemen are over. 

This war has to end. And to underscore our commitment, we’re ending all American support for offensive operations in Yemen, including arm sales, said Biden in a recent speech at the State Department.

Not only Biden administration removed Yemen’s Ansarullah movement from the US government’s list of foreign terrorist organizations, Veteran diplomat, Timothy Lenderking has been appointed the US special envoy for Yemen.

The US approach towards Yemen changed after the new administration realized that Saudi Arabia can never win this war and there is an urgent need to offer the Monarchy a face-saving. 

Saudis don’t seem to agree with the US proposal. They still insist on excluding the Ansarallah movement and returning the obsolete, self-proclaimed government of Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, who resigned in 2015 and left Yemen open for foreign intervention. 

Saudi intervention in Yemen was aimed at achieving one goal, eliminating Ansarallah and Sanaa-based government. To justify its assault on Yemen, Saudi Arabia claimed that Ansarallah is backed by Iran and that the war on Yemen was primarily focused on eliminating foreign influence in the country.

Saudis and their allies besieged Yemen and prevented free coming and going to Yemen. Despite the blockade, the Saudis failed to defeat the Sanaa government; which now seems to be stronger than ever given its recent attacks on several strategic targets deep inside Saudi Arabia.

An official spokesman at the ministry told Saudi Press Agency on Sunday that one of the petroleum tank farms at the Ras Tanura Port in the Eastern Region, one of the largest oil shipping ports in the world, was attacked by a drone.

The official added that another deliberate attempt was made to hit Saudi Aramco’s facilities. The spokesman said a ballistic missile fell near Saudi Aramco’s area in the city of Dhahran. The spokesman said that both attacks did not result in any injury or loss of life or property.

The Yemeni forces claimed responsibility for the attacks on Aramco facilities. They said the attack came in response to ongoing aggression and siege against Yemen. 

The latest attacks indicated that Saudi Arabia has not only unsuccessful in defeating Yemeni forces, but it also failed in protecting itself from Yemen’s retaliatory strikes.

Instead of ending the war in Yemen, Saudis continue to level accusations on Iran, claiming that the missile and drones used by the Yemeni forces to target Saudi Arabia’s oil port and facilities were supplied by Iran. 

Saudi Arabia can quit war by ending its military operations and leaving Yemeni factions to pursue a political solution at their own. Saudis have failed in finding ways out of the Yemen crisis. Now that the US is negotiating for an end to Yemen war, Saudis should put an end to this unwinnable war. 

If Saudis continue the war, they may lose not only the war, but also their credibility. Saudis may not like the US plan, but the effort may prove a blessing in disguise.

Biden sends B-52 heavy bomber over Persian Gulf

Last week, a B-52 bomber of United States Air Force flew over the Middle East, the fourth time since Joe Biden became President of the United States. Washington said the flybys were due to instability in the region, but the reference was very clearly to Iran. 

What was more unusual about these flights than the previous was that the US Central Command announced that these were accompanied by supporting aircraft from Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Israel is a US ally and Saudi Arabia has been allegedly cooperating with Israel for years but has still not recognized it. Qatar has perhaps the closest relationship with Tehran and it is a key intermediary between Iran and the United States. If the purpose of these flights was to warn Iran; such warnings have little impact.

In a clear signal to Iran, a ‘Stratofortress bomber flew over the Persian Gulf, before the plane was spotted in Israeli airspace heading back to its base in the US. It was escorted by Israeli Air Force F-15s as it passed over Israel. It was the seventh mission into CENTCOM’s area of operation in the last four months and the second deployment of the heavy bomber since Joe Biden became president on January 20.

It is believed that the United States continues to deploy combat-ready capabilities into the US Central Command area of responsibility to deter any potential adversary, and make clear that it is ready and capable of responding to any aggression directed at its interests. Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander, US Central Command had said, “We do not seek conflict, but no one should underestimate our ability to defend our forces or to act decisively in response to any attack.”

One can recall that Iranians or their proxies have launched attacks at the US bases in Iraq. They have also damaged an Israeli merchant vessel off the Lebanese coast. The Biden administration’s pledge to revive the nuclear treaty has been rejected by Iran. Since Biden has made restoring the agreement an important objective of his presidency, Iran may feel Biden is desperate for a deal.

The flight of the B 52s didn’t matter, despite two of Iran’s greatest enemies – Israel and Saudi Arabia joining hands. Israel may be eager to strike Iran, but sees itself restrained by the United States.

Iran’s primary goals are to restore its economy and prevent an attack from the West. It can’t leave Iraq alone, nor can it abandon its allies in Yemen and elsewhere. Demonstrating real regional power is a foundation of its security. Iran knows its relative importance to the United States that gives it a sense of security.