Is OPEC the other name of Saudi Arabia?

A meeting of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is scheduled for 5th December 2019; the day Aramco is also due to announce the final offer price. The producers are expected to extend their supply pact at the meeting. It is anticipated that delegates may discuss deeper supply cuts amid forecasts of supply glut in 2020.

Analysts are pinning hopes on the meeting because oil prices slipped to US$63 a barrel after spiking to US$72 in the aftermath of 14th September 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities. The current price is below the levels many OPEC countries need to balance their budgets and below the levels officials say they favor.

OPEC, Russia and other allies, known as OPEC+, had agreed to reduce supply by 1.2 million bpd. OPEC’s share of the cut is about 800,000 bpd, to be shared by 11 members, except Iran, Libya and Venezuela.

United States the game spoiler

Voracious appetite for oil of United States has always been a strategic Achilles’ heel, with that vulnerability put on display to the world to during the 1973 Oil Crisis. A chronic hypersensitivity to oil supply crunches and price volatility helps US shape its foreign policy – it has been the driving force behind US partnership with the historic oil market maker Saudi Arabia. That is the reason the US Navy’s 5th Fleet patrols the critical choke points of the Gulf (the Strait of Hormuz), the Suez Canal and the Strait of Bab al Mandeb – the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

US has reached a record breaking 12.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production in November in 2019 – a new high watermark for the industry. Earlier in September, US had achieved something yet more impressive when it exported more petroleum products than it imported. For the world’s leading oil buyer this is a big deal. America consumes over 20% of the global production of 99 million bpd of daily crude production, with China holding the number 2 spot at 13% and India in a distant 3rd at 5%.

Today the US leads the world in the production of petroleum products, including crude oil, petroleum liquids and biofuels with 17.9 million barrels per day, or 18% of the petroleum market. At present the US is ahead of Saudi Arabia, with 12.4 million bpd or 12% of the world's total output, and Russia producing 11.4 million bpd or 11% of the global market.

According to a Reuters report, oil output by OPEC fell in November mainly because Saudi Arabia kept a lid on supply to support the market before the initial public offering (IPO) of state owned Saudi Aramco. It was also supported by reduced production by Angola due to maintenance.

At an average, the 14-member OPEC pumped 29.57 million barrels per day (bpd) during November, down 110,000 bpd from October’s revised figure. Production from the two other exempt producers, Libya and Iran, was reported unchanged.

During November 2019, Saudi Arabia pumped 9.85 million bpd, down 50,000 bpd from October. Riyadh’s output had jumped by 850,000 bpd in October after the September attacks, but remained below its stipulated quota by OPEC. In November, the country pumped around 400,000 bpd less than the agreement allows.

OPEC’s largest production drop of 140,000 bpd was because Angola exported less crude in November due to maintenance. The African producer was already pumping far below its OPEC quota due to a natural decline in production and a lack of new fields coming online, rather than due to voluntary restraint.

The 11-OPEC members bound by the agreement, which for now runs until March 2020, have easily exceeded the pledged cuts. Compliance has been encouraging, although Iraq and Nigeria remain laggards among larger producers.

OPEC’s second-largest producer Iraq has pumped slightly less, but continues to overshoot its target.

Nigeria, which has consistently pumped more than its OPEC target, continued to do so in November, although output edged lower this month.

Among countries pumping more, the largest increase was in Kuwait, which increased output by 70,000 bpd to 2.72 million bpd, reaching its exact quota level.

Ecuador also pumped more after a decline in October, when protests against government austerity measures led to several fields being shut down.

Venezuela, which is contending with US sanctions imposed on state oil firm PDVSA and a long-term decline in output, managed a small boost to supply with exports increasing in November.

Iran Grain Conference opens in Tehran on 2nd December 2019

Tehran, Iranian capital will host 70 renowned foreign companies during a large international conference on grains, oilseeds and related industries on 2^nd and 3^rd December 2019.

The event titled “Iran Grain Conference 2019” is the largest conference ever held in Iran in the field of grains, Sharif Nezam-Mafi, the Board Chairman of Iran-Switzerland Joint Chamber of Commerce which is organizing the international gathering, said in a press conference.

Nezam-Mafi, who is the secretary of the event, said for the first time in the country a conference on grains includes the complete chain of the related products, technology, equipment, industries and all other related issues. “It is a prominent feature of Iran Grain Conference.”

Referring to the high number of participants and sponsors of the event, he said 450 applicants have registered to participate in the conference, of them 70 applicants are from other countries including Russia, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, France, China, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, and the event is sponsored by 35 companies and associations.

He said the foreign participants are all renowned companies in the international level and in fact they are all among the Ten Top companies of their countries in the related fields.

 Networking, major objective of conference

Nezam-Mafi further said that the main objective and role of Iran Grain Conference is “Networking” and in fact it tries to create a proper ground for the Iranian companies to find their foreign partners.

Many of foreign companies think that Iran is an importer of the consumer products, he said, adding, “We intend to let them know that Iran is a major producer in many fields.”

Many specialized panels

Elsewhere in his remarks, Nezam-Mafi referred to holding many specialized panels in various fields on the sidelines of the conference as another prominent feature of the international event and mentioned “Trade” as the subject of the first panel which will discuss international banking during the sanctions.

The panels mainly cover issues related to the future needs and limitations, for example those related to the climate change, and will discuss the possible resolutions, he informed. 

He also named some of the main speakers of the event as Yazdan Seif, Iran’s deputy agriculture minister and CEO of Government Trading Corporation of Iran (GTC), Masoud Khansari, the head of Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (TCCIMA), Ferial Mostofi, a board member of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture (ICCIMA), and Markus Leitner, the Swiss ambassador to Tehran.

 To build a linking bridge

During the same press conference, Hossein Ziaian, one of the Board member of Iran Grain Conference, referred to the status of Iran in the grain market and said that given its potential the country should elevate its status in this field.

“Through inviting private sector and foreign companies we wanted to create a linking bridge through this conference in a way that Iran can promote its status especially during the current condition”, he underlined.

Creating a linking bridge between Iranian companies and foreign ones especially during the sanctions time is in fact a main objective of this international gathering, he noted.

Ziaian further said, “We are planning to hold provincial and regional conferences continuously after holding Iran Grain for further promotion of the country’s status in the field of grains.”

To expand export market

Hossein Yazdjerdi, another Board member of the Conference, who was also present in the press conference, said that Iraq, Afghanistan and North African countries are some major importers of flour in the region and Iran can benefit from this opportunity to expand its export market, adding that Iran Grain Conference is a platform to help the country promote its export status.

The organizers have made many efforts to make this conference as attractive as possible to address many important attendees, he underscored.

Yazdjerdi further elaborated on the status of wheat cultivating in Iran and said, “The good news is that we have achieved self-reliance in production of wheat, but in terms of the quality of this grain we should still try to promote it, as just 40 percent of our produced wheat is of high quality.”

To highlight Iran’s presence

Later in the press conference, Seyed Mohammadreza Mortazavi, the Board Chairman of Federation of Iranian Food Associations and also a Board Member of Iran Grain 2019, mentioned creating stable and effective ties as the major aim of holding this international event and expressed hope that it can highlight Iran’s presence in the global market.

“It is true that we are an importer of many grains, but Iran has a high potential for processing these products”, he further said.

“We have problems in cultivation, import and export of grains, but we hope to find the ways for stable supply of our required grains”, he added.

“There is a 10-year outlook for grain supply, but if the market is not managed properly, we will face serious problems”, the official commented, adding, “We should benefit from our geopolitical status to prevent such problems.”

Such conference missing in Iran

Kaveh Zargaran, Secretary General of Federation of Iranian Food Associations, who is also a board member of Iran Grain 2019, said, “For many years, we have been seeing that the neighboring countries which hold shares very lower than Iran’s share in the grain market, are holding such conferences, but it was missing in our country.”

Now, it is hoped that Iran Grain Conference can highlight the country’s role and status in the grain market, he mentioned in the same press conference.

Analysts using deception to keep oil price high

All the indicators suggest that global crude oil market is suffering from supply glut, mainly because of high shale oil production. Nothing seems to be moving oil price in any way other than Sino-US trade war. The western media is still trying to prove that very thing hinges on the two powerhouses striking a deal, be it global economic growth or oil demand. Any attempt to try to create bullish sentiments seems completely artificial and far away from ground realities.

The markets appear to have turned decidedly bearish with supply/demand imbalances drowning out everything else to the extent that even an epic event, attack on Saudi Aramco oil facilities proved storm in a cup of tea. The event that could have caused the biggest supply disruption in the history only provided a temporary support for prices. 

The western media is still busy in creating illusion by suggesting several scenarios that could induce rally in oil markets and put prices on upward trajectory once again. It is suspected that once a trade deal is reached, then geopolitical risk will again be able to create upsets and the often used recipe will be the rig count, which often creates the highest deception.

During the first week of November 2019, hedge fund bets on US benchmark, WTI that took its price to new highs. Even though US shale producers are pumping crude like crazy and adding to supply, hedge funds see reduced drilling as a sign of lower production next year. 

It can’t be ruled out that western media will use three scenarios for pushing oil prices higher in the near-and mid-term:

Sino-US deal

The long-running trade war between the world’s two biggest economies has brought about a general malaise to the global economy. Negotiations between Washington and Beijing have been long, intermittent and protracted with plenty of confusion.

It is often said, all’s well that ends well - finally, there seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel after the Trump-led team announced they have finalized ‘Phase One’ of the trade negotiations. Oil markets have largely remained indifferent, underlining just how much damage the trade spat has wrought on the global economy. Maybe all those platitudes about confidence bouncing back after an initial deal were a touch optimistic.

Geopolitical Risk

Rising geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East - home to more than 60 percent of the world’s oil reserves is bullish for oil. Tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia reached a boiling point following the 14th September attacks on Aramco’s oil facilities. The New Iran Deal remains a highly emotive issue. Western media alleges Iran has kicked off another round of uranium enrichment. The International Atomic Energy Agency will release a new report, which will clarify whether Iran has been complying with its commitments or not.

The European Union is desperate to forge a new nuclear deal with Iran to replace the 2015 deal that Trump had quit last year. The EU is trying to create a Special Purpose Vehicle that can help the bloc circumvent US sanctions and continue buying Iranian oil. So far, it’s clear the sanctions are working, with oil exports from Iran on a continuous decline.

In the highly likely event that Trump and his European allies are unable to forge a new deal, tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia are likely to escalate. While chances of an all-out war with the US or Saudi Arabia appear slim, tensions in the region are likely to remain high and increase the supply risk.

Declining inventories and rig count

In late October, oil prices surged 3 percent after the US Energy Information Administration reported a surprise decline in US crude inventories. The organization revealed that on a seasonal basis, gasoline demand in the US has been at its highest since 1991. Meanwhile, US oil rig count has been trending south for many months now. The latest Baker Hughes report showed a decline of 5 rigs from the preceding week to 817, and a massive fall from the 1,057 rigs reported at a corresponding point last year. So far, production has continued to rise amid the rig count collapse only because drillers are focusing on bringing the considerable fracklog of uncompleted wells online. Obviously, this can only go on for so long, and at some point, production is bound to get compromised. Right now, it’s the perfect time to play the short-term buy and sell game, buying on the dip and selling on the spike, as long as WTI is trading at a bottom range of between US$49 to US$55.

Can sustainable peace be established in Middle East?

One wonders why Middle East and North Africa (MENA) continue to suffer from internal turmoil as well as proxy wars. Some analysts say the single largest reason behind ongoing turmoil can be ongoing attempts to keep crude oil prices high to facilitate other countries to boost their domestic oil production.

The latest evidence was attack on Aramco facilities in Saudi Arabia to attract high subscription to Initial Public Offering (IPO). The immediate success was, China opting to take US$10 billion stake in one of the largest energy production facility in the world.

Reportedly, Saudi Arabia is making efforts to negotiate an end to the Yemen war by initiating a dialogue with Iran. This move is not likely to be approved by US President Donald Trump, the biggest proponent of maximum pressure on the Islamic republic.

Saudi officials hope that talks mediated by Oman and Britain between the kingdom and Houthi rebels will lead to a revival of stalled talks between the Yemeni insurgents and the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized government of Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.

 Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman has tasked his younger brother and Saudi deputy defense minister, Khalid bin Salman, with engineering an end to the Yemeni war as part of a broader revamp of Saudi foreign policy.

The revamp involves a return to a more cautious foreign and defense policy that embraces multilateralism after several years in which the kingdom adopted an assertive and robust go it alone approach that produced several fiascos, including the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen initiated four and a half years ago. The revamp was prompted by attacks in September on two of the kingdom’s key oil facilities as well as doubts about the reliability of the US defense commitment to the Gulf.

The kingdom’s return to a more cautious approach is also intended to project itself in 2020 as president of the Group of 20 (G20) and repair its image tarnished by the Yemen War, the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, and a domestic crackdown on dissent.

 Trump’s response to the September drone and missile attacks for which the Houthis were blames claimed in some ways was the clearest indication that Gulf States may not be able to count on the United States in times of crisis.

Trumph said that the attack was on Saudi Arabia and the US would certainly help them, but his adoption of a transactional attitude towards Gulf security did upset Saudi Arabia.

 It is being propagated by the US that the attacks on Saudi Arabia suggests that escalation of US-Iranian tensions would make them targets in an environment in which the United States may not wholeheartedly come to their rescue.

The US officials are also suggesting that now the Saudi policy is to lessen their involvement in Yemen and to stop Yemen being some version of a proxy so they (the Saudis) can deal directly with Iran.

United Nations Yemen envoy Martin Griffiths told the UN Security Council this week that the number of air attacks by the Saudi-led coalition had dropped by nearly 80% lately.

Griffiths said, “We call this de-escalation, a reduction in the tempo of the war and perhaps a move towards an overall ceasefire in Yemen,". He also expressed hopes that a negotiated end to the war could be achieved early next year.

However, the efforts to end war as well as gestures towards Iran in recent months by the United Arab Emirates did not stop senior Saudi and UAE officials from adopting a hard line.

“Appeasement simply cannot work with Iran. We hold Iran responsible for the attack on Abqaiq. We do not want war, but Iran needs to be held accountable” said Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir at a Bahrain gathering.

Al-Jubeir’s UAE counterpart, Anwar Gargash added, “The key to stability is deterrence and steadfast resolve of the international community was that Iran must change. If not, sanctions must be increased, not loosened.”