China expels US Navy destroyer from South China Sea

Beijing on Tuesday announced its military has “expelled” a US Navy destroyer sailing near Nansha Islands – also known as Spratly Islands – in the South China Sea in a fresh escalation of tensions between Beijing and Washington.

China said the southern command of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) deployed ships and aircraft to warn US destroyer USS John S. McCain as it sailed through the disputed waters of the South China Sea (SCS).

The incident took place as Shandong, China’s second aircraft carrier, was said to be conducting drills in the SCS region after sailing through the Taiwan Strait on Sunday.

China claims nearly the entire SCS but that claim is disputed by several maritime neighbors including the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia, besides Vietnam and Taiwan, which China says is a breakaway region.

“The Chinese PLA on Tuesday expelled US destroyer USS John S. McCain after it trespassed into China’s territorial waters off Nansha Islands in the South China Sea,” said Senior Colonel Tian Junli, a spokesperson for the PLA southern theatre command.

China firmly opposes the US warship’s trespassing, said Tian, warning that the US moves undermine the peace and stability of the region.

“Such actions by the US have seriously violated China’s sovereignty and security and severely undermined peace and stability in the SCS,” Tian added.

The US guided-missile destroyer had last week practised anti-submarine warfare with a French submarine and Japanese carrier in the Philippine Sea.

A statement from the US 7th Fleet Public Affairs said the warship was conducting freedom of navigation operations in the SCS.

“On December 22, USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) asserted navigational rights and freedoms in the Spratly Islands, consistent with international law. This freedom of navigation operation (“FONOP”) upheld the rights, freedoms, and lawful uses of the sea recognised in international law by challenging restrictions on innocent passage imposed by China, Vietnam, and Taiwan,” the statement said.

“All interactions with foreign military forces were consistent with international norms and did not impact the operation,” it added.

The US statement added that unlawful and sweeping maritime claims in the SCS pose a serious threat to the “…freedom of the seas, including the freedoms of navigation and overflight, free trade and unimpeded commerce, and freedom of economic opportunity for SCS littoral nations”.

In April, China had scrambled aircraft and deployed ships to track and expel a frontline US warship from near another Beijing-controlled region called Paracel Islands - also known as Xisha Islands in China and Hoang Sa Archipelago in Vietnam - in the SCS.

Accusing the guided-missile destroyer USS Barry of carrying out a “provocative act” and violating Chinese sovereignty, the PLA’s southern command had then said the intrusion of the American warship prompted it to “track, monitor, verify, identify and expel” it.

US China Rivalry: Southeast Asia cannot afford another tyranny

A new super powers contest would be a disaster for Southeast Asian states which struggle to maintain autonomy and prefer to selectively follow their wishes. The new world order must accommodate China’s interests and the United States should compromise, rather than resisting the inevitable.

The colonial era in Southeast Asia extended from 15th to late 20th century. During this period, the Western powers – including United States competed for occupying and governing Southeast Asia. Although, the colonies finally won independence, the colonial masters continue to impose economic, political, cultural and sometimes military pressures to influence the foreign and domestic policies of their former colonies. 

Now a new neocolonial era is in the offing. This time, the struggle for domination of the region is between the West and China. It is for the control of commercial, technological and maritime as well as military access. The current contest still involves coercion that clearly challenges Southeast Asian countries’ independence and sovereignty. They were – and are – viewed as pawn in a great power contest.

The world has changed dramatically since the previous colonial and neocolonial periods in Southeast Asia. China has now risen and is challenging the victors in the Cold War and the post-World War II order that the US built and now leads.

In this new neocolonial era, the methods of “colonialism” might have changed but the fundamental intent of subjugating Southeast Asian nations to their national interest has not. Now, instead of physical conquest and occupation, China and the United States are trying to impose their socio-economic norms. This is manifested in the contest between China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the US’ Free and Open Indo-Pacific and its spawn.

According to US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, China’s belt and road is an attempt to create “vassal states [and] a tyrannical regime all around the world for global hegemony”. China views the Indo-Pacific initiative as an attempt to impose a Western version of new order on it and the region, thereby constraining its rise and right to regional leadership.

Kiron Skinner, a former Director of Policy and Planning in the US State Department said China and the US “seek adherence to their set of values. This is a fight with a really different civilization and a different ideology.” US Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe has called China the “greatest threat to America today and the greatest threat to democracy and freedom worldwide since World War II”. While many might dispute these assertions, they do indicate the view deep within the upper reaches of the US government foreign policy apparatus.

At its heart is a clash of political systems – “efficient” authoritarian communism versus “inefficient” democratic capitalism – and their underlying values. US leaders are worried that China is proving that for itself and perhaps other developing countries, its system is superior in the eyes of its people.

Although, the US hoped that China’s values and political system would become more like its own over time, that is now recognized as unlikely and probably always was. This has shaken the US establishment to the core because it challenges the fundamental assumption that the world wanted to – and would – become like it.

This clash of fundamental values and norms is driving the US-China neocolonial competition for the political allegiance and support of Southeast Asian countries. They will continue to pressure them to side with their system.

Some Southeast Asian nations have tried to take advantage of this contest by hedging and thus benefiting from the largesse of both China’s economic strength and the US security blanket. However, this is proving to be an increasingly dangerous game as the two competitors crank up the pressure to choose sides. If there is resistance by Southeast Asian countries to the entreaties of the competing powers, neither is beyond angry threats, military intimidation and formal or informal sanctions to get their way.

A particular concern is that the intensifying competition for influence and military dominance in the region could spill over into their domestic politics, with the US and China each aiding its supporters and hampering its opponents. This happened during the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, and it could happen again.

This great power contest could be a disaster for some Southeast Asian countries. These countries are struggling to maintain their strategic autonomy and would like to follow great power wishes only when their interests align, but they cannot resist such pressures alone. They need to do so in unison.

However, their cohesion is in jeopardy. As outspoken Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte warned, “The South China Sea issue is Asean’s strategic challenge. How we deal with this matter lays bare our strengths and weaknesses as a community.”

The colliding ambitions and values of China and the US suggest the inevitability of a fundamental clash. The window for compromise is closing. China is on an upwards trajectory of increasing power, not unlike America was in its postcolonial days.

The US is still ahead and on top. It should compromise while it can still significantly influence the terms rather than resist the inevitable with needless suffering for all concerned. The international order must at least partially accommodate China’s interests.

Of course, there will be stresses and strains, but confrontation is the easy way out of this dilemma. The harder but better way for all concerned is for the US to determine and negotiate where, when and how to compromise on what.

History shows the US cannot be top dog forever. Negotiating will provide an extension of its supremacy and the possibility of a soft landing. The Joe Biden administration has an opportunity to move in this direction.

Goreh-Jask oil pipeline to open Indian Ocean gates for Iranian oil

It is no secret that Islamic Republic Iran enjoys strategic geopolitical position. It is located at the heart of the world’s oil production center and the trade corridor connecting east and west. The country for more than four decades has been enduring sanctions. To counter the US strategy of Maximum Pressures, Iran has no option but to come up with new strategies for diversifying its exports and trade routes. Goreh-Jask oil pipeline is one of these initiatives.

This pipeline is going to provide Iran with an alternative route for the country’s crude oil exports that are currently carried out through the Strait of Hormuz. The pipeline will open a new gate for Iranian oil to the Indian Ocean by transferring oil from Goreh in Bushehr Province to Jask on the shores of Gulf of Oman. The pipeline project is nearing completion, as per the schedule.

Implementation of the Goreh-Jask pipeline is also in line with the country’s programs for the integrated development of Makran shores in the southeast, which has been one of the major policies of the country considering the significance of the trade with the South Asian countries.

According to the Managing Director of Iran's Petroleum Engineering and Development Company (PEDEC) Touraj Dehqani, Goreh-Jask pipeline consists of 1,000 kilometers long 42-inch diameter acid-compatible pipes, five pumping stations, two pigging stations and a metering station at the end of the line.

“Offshore facilities also include wharves, support ports, and related loading facilities and pipelines. Also, electrical systems and storage facilities are under construction to be partly commissioned in the first phase.”

Dehqani stated that the first phase of this project with a capacity to transfer over 300,000 barrels of crude oil per day will be ready for operation by the end of the current Iranian calendar year. The transfer capacity of the pipeline can be increased up to 30 million barrels per day in the second phase, he said.

Despite all the limitations created by the external factors like the US sanctions, the decline of oil prices and the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the project has reached over 80 percent of physical progress in less than two years, a very significant achievement for the country’s oil industry.

Over 95 percent of the equipment, machinery, and technical parts used in this project have been supplied by domestic companies, another achievement for the country’s industrial sectors to overcome the hardships imposed by the sanctions and turn them into opportunities for flourishing in every aspect.

As one of the country’s most strategic project at the moment, the first phase of the Goreh-Jask oil pipeline is expected to come on stream by the end of this year and hopefully, Iran would need this new export hub at the Indian Ocean to come back to the oil market with full force after the US sanctions are lifted.

Back Sea Brewing Conflict

Many experts from United States find the whole swath of territory in Eastern Europe, near Russia, very far away and hard to conceptualize. This part of the world involves a number of countries, small and large that is generally neither the most frequently discussed in the US news nor frequented by the US tourists.

To make sense of much of this remote region, it can be helpful to take a perspective that centers on the Black Sea and views that body of water as the key point of reference for much of the region. Doing so not only helps clarify what Russia is up to in its neighborhood, but also shines a spotlight on Chinese activity.

The Black Sea region is best viewed as having three big anchors—Ukraine to the north, Turkey to the south, Russia to the northeast. Then there are three countries on either side of the region—Romania, Bulgaria and Moldova on the left or west, Georgia and Armenia and Azerbaijan to the east.

Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria are NATO allies; the US and NATO’s other twenty-six members (making for a grand total of thirty) are sworn to their defense through a mutual-defense treaty. And even though Ukraine is not a NATO ally, the United States did promise (along with Russia) back in 1994 to help protect its security—which is why the Russian aggression against Ukraine since 2014 has been so concerning.

None of this is to say that the US needs to prepare for war against China, or Russia for that matter, in the Black Sea region. The Black Sea is far from the Chinese coasts; the main military concerns are with China in the western Pacific region.

Moreover, as Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, told a group of people at the Brookings Institution on 2nd December 2020, the US is in a period of great-power competition but it is not in a period of conflict, and the goal should be to keep things that way while competing effectively against Russian and Chinese influence.

Indeed, as with many parts of the world, China does not pose a direct military threat, rather it challenges the US interests in the realms of economics, technology, and espionage. To be specific:

- China is offering loans, through its Belt and Road Initiative, to many countries along a vast periphery and perimeter. This includes the Black Sea. But buyer must be cognizant that China’s money comes with strings. The US needs to help regional countries understand this and so that they can accept any loans with their eyes wide open.

- China’s software and hardware are optimized for intrusive monitoring of the population, Black Sea inhabitants will be monitored if and when they accept Chinese technology, even from private firms, in realms like 5G. China’s civil-commercial-military-intelligence “fusion law” formalizes this; Beijing isn’t even pretending to do otherwise.

- China is actively trying to buy into sectors that have huge security implications. A prime example is the manufacturer Motorsich in Ukraine, which builds high-quality engines for helicopters and aircraft. A struggling Ukrainian economy may make such assets relatively easy pickings for a purportedly friendly but also devious foreign investor

- In general, Chinese infrastructure comes with long-term controlling interests

- Default on Chinese loans results in Chinese ownership of assets—and the default is a distinct possibility when big projects are foisted upon unsuspecting countries with weak economies and a lack of transparency in their investment decisions.

The US can do a lot to help in ways that are already showing promise in other regions around the world. Malaysia and Pakistan, for example, have figured out that they can say no to massive Chinese projects that would bring them little in the way of jobs (since China brings along most of its own workers for Belt and Road projects) and much in the way of debt. A central database that tracks such Chinese efforts, and helps countries do the calculus of pros and cons for each proposed investment before signing any contracts, can go a long way towards defeating such practices.

The US needs to be a part of the leadership in this region. The EU and NATO are important, to complement our diplomacy with both those organizations, the incoming Biden administration should recognize the Black Sea as a region of importance, requiring a focus on diplomacy and economic engagement.

The good news is that war does not have to be the future for the Black Sea. Military support is important, but it is just one of our tools for engagement in this vital region. To avoid bad news, the US must engage effectively, be patient, and sustain its efforts, when it chooses to do. It is time to choose.

Iran Pakistan Opening New Border Crossing

The spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran unveiled opening of the second border crossing with Pakistan. In a statement released on Friday, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh said the second official border crossing between Iran and Pakistan is being inaugurated on Saturday, 19^th December 2020.

During a recent visit to Islamabad, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and his Pakistani counterpart agreed on the opening of Rimdan-Gabad border crossing between the two countries, the negotiations over which had been already held, the spokesperson added. 

“Accordingly and under the arrangements made between the officials of the two countries and the organizations in charge, the Rimdan-Gabad border crossing will be inaugurated by the relevant high-ranking officials of the countries in the (Iranian) province of Sistan and Baluchistan as the second official border crossing between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Islamic Republic of Pakistan,” he noted. 

The opening of the new border crossing would raise the economic and trade exchanges between Iran and Pakistan, Khatibzadeh stated, adding, “Creation of this border crossing between the two friendly and neighbouring states and the recent inauguration of Khaf-Herat railroad demonstrate that the Islamic Republic of Iran attaches special significance to interaction and cooperation with its neighbours and considers close cooperation with the neighbouring countries as the way for the West Asia region’s progress and excellence.”

 

Need for a regional alliance inclusive of Iran and Turkey

Lately, a controversy started after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recited epic poems that sparked widespread outrage in Iran, with many Iranian officials strongly rejecting any territorial claims against Iran.

However, the dispute was settled when Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu called his Iranian counterpart Javad Zarif on Saturday evening to assure him that his country respects the Islamic Republic of Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Turkey and Iran are two major neighbors with a rich history and deep ties who have lived in peace for nearly 400 years. Cooperation and mutual respect have always been a top priority.

Turkey and Iran are two major countries with solid-state traditions, and two neighbors who have lived in peace for nearly 400 years since the Treaty of Qasr-e Shirin (Zuhab) was signed in 1639.

Although, there have been disputes between these two states through the course of history, cooperation and mutual respect have always been a top priority.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended the ceremonies of Nagorno-Karabakh’s liberation from the occupation of Armenia, which had been backed by Western imperialism.

During his speech in the ceremonies, he proposed a six-country platform for the issues in the Caucasus, which Turkey, Iran, Russia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and even Armenia.

Unfortunately, instead of paying attention to this proposal to unite West Asia, firestorms were blown over a poem that Erdogan read during his speech, and the important point sadly got ignored.

There is need to understand very well that the possible winners of the cooperation between Turkey and Iran, would not only be these two countries but also entire West Asia. In case of a dispute between the two countries the beneficiaries will be the United States and Israel.

Turkey, as a neighbor, respects Iran’s territorial integrity and national sovereignty and has never pursued a policy that targets to disrupt the Iranian territorial integrity, in its entire history. On the contrary, Ankara has mostly pursued a policy that prioritizes the internal stability of Iran.

On the issue of the nuclear deal, the Turkish government, together with the Brazilian government, played as a mediator that protected Iranian interests in the international arena and tried to put an end to the imperialist approach towards Iran.

Turkey has continued its trade activities with Iran despite all international pressures and embargoes, an indication of the goodwill and the willingness of Turkey to cooperate.

Turkey, which has been fighting against the American puppet PKK terrorist organization for nearly four decades, is pursuing a policy against any movements that want to partition and weaken the countries of the region, as part of the imperialist plans.

Unfortunately, there are some groups in Turkey that are not comfortable with the cooperation between Turkey and Iran, just like similar groups in Iran. These groups consist of Atlantic supporters, and/or those who look at the world from a sectarian point of view. The way to neutralize these groups would be through even deeper cooperation between Ankara and Tehran.

The good relations between the two countries and the unchanging border for 400 years are the clear signs that the Turkish government and the Turkish nation do not have the slightest problem with the territorial integrity of Iran.

Any misunderstanding between the two countries makes it much easier for the United States, Israel and their sectarian puppets to infiltrate and cause friction between Ankara and Tehran. It is not a secret that Israel wants Ankara-Tehran relations to collapse.

There is need to understand the statement from the Turkish presidential spokesman Omer Celik saying "let us not make our enemies happy". Turkey believes that the Iranian officials know that the winners of a possible dispute with Turkey would be the United States and Israel.

Some groups in the region had been hoping for the election of Joe Biden instead of Trump before the elections. Especially some opposition parties in Turkey have welcomed Biden's election win. Some articles, praised Biden's election victory, in connection with the nuclear deal with Iran.

It was only the methodology that changed with Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, but the final goal of the US imperialism would still be to rule over West Asia by destabilizing the area. Those who hope the United States will change policy fail to understand the US foreign policy.

President Erdogan's proposal for a six-country platform in Baku can be considered in this context.

The imperialist siege in the Eastern Mediterranean has been growing and Israel, which now has the support of the West, wants to gather the Arab countries under the name of "normalization", and put them into an anti-Turkey and anti-Iran camp.

The nations of West Asia can frustrate this unholy alliance of the imperialist powers with their own alliance. Turkey and Iran are the main dynamics of a possible regional alliance, along with Russia.

If these countries are united against the US imperialism the region from the Caucasus to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (West Asia) can be stabilized. Otherwise, some radical nationalist and sectarian perspectives will make it easier for imperialism to rule over the region.

Arab recognition of Israel to redefine the Middle East

Many countries have established diplomatic relations with Israel in quick succession. The decision to establish diplomatic relations by itself cannot create alliance. In case of the Arab world, the matter is different. Within each country, there are factions that are hostile to Israel. Any regime that opens relations with Israel will have to face this reality. Each state that has recognized Israel has broken a barrier. Among many Arabs, it is a violation of a fundamental principle.

Morocco established diplomatic relations with Israel, soon after three other Arab countries – the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan – normalized ties. In Morocco’s case, part of the deal was US recognition of Morocco’s claim to Western Sahara, just as it had agreed to remove Sudan from its list of state sponsors of terrorism.

This process, which began with the UAE, is rooted partly in the US Middle Eastern policy that has played an important role in implicitly endorsing the process and occasionally adding a sweetener. The US also made it clear that it was withdrawing its forces from the region and reducing its commitments. That left the region without the power that held it together.

Public hostility among nations in the region, and especially with Israel, is possible as the US has served as coordinator and bridge. These countries could and did work together, but only through secret contacts and US coordination. Without the United States, each state was left to either go it alone or form meaningful relations on the whole. The US policy forced the countries of the region to face a reality they had tried to hide

This sounds like the usual US mantra, “They needed each other because the Sunni Arab world had enemies, none more dangerous to their interests than Iran. The Arabs framed their policy on the assumption that the United States would guarantee their interests, and even their existence, against an Iranian threat.

That remains possible, but what the United States has done, create uncertainty. Iran cannot be sure of what the United States would do under any particular circumstances, neither can the Arabs. Each has to prepare itself for a situation, minus United States, rather than simply an American reaction.

At the same time, the Iranians have a weakened position. One of their strategies was to play off Arab states against Israel, the United States or each other. They could also take advantage of conflicts that periodically flared up between fragmented Arab states. Now Iran has less room to maneuver, while the Arabs find themselves needing to negotiate with neighbors rather than offload risk and responsibility to the United States.

The decision to establish diplomatic relations by itself would not normally create an alliance. The US and China have diplomatic relations, but they are not allies. But in the case of the Arab world, the matter is different. Within each country, there are factions that are hostile to Israel. Any regime that opens relations with Israel must face this reality.

The threat here is internal and each state that has recognized Israel has broken a barrier. In the US and Israel, this is a welcome break. Among many Arabs, it is a violation of what has been a fundamental principle.

Saudi Arabia, wary of the intense feelings on such matters in a significant sector of society, has not taken the step of recognizing Israel, even though it has cooperated with Israel for quite a while. Given the politics of the region, recognition may as well be an alliance. There is little to lose and much to gain for Arab states that have recognized Israel.

The implicit alliance leaves Iran in an extremely difficult position. The Arab world was hostile in many ways before. Now it is organized around Israeli power, making Israel even more dangerous to it. In addition to ruinous sanctions, internal political tension and the potential threat of the United States, it now faces the possibility not only of Arab hostility but of Arab alignment with Israel. In many ways, this is the worst-case scenario for Iran, and the intelligence services arrayed against it will do all they can to encourage the internal opposition.

Iran’s counter is a serious one. The recognition process leaves the Palestinians isolated from their former allies. Iran can portray itself reasonably as the only champion of the Palestinians and the only true enemy of Israel.

The Arab states have regarded Palestine as a side issue for a long time, but the same is not always true for their citizens. Iran’s move is to adopt the Palestinian cause as its own, and speak to the Arab public in terms of the betrayal of the Palestinians and capitulation to Israel.

It is not clear that any Arab regime will be forced to change policy or be overthrown. It is not clear that Iran’s formal isolation will cause regime change, but what is clear is that if Iran undertakes military action of any sort against states that have recognized Israel, Israel will be free and even welcomed, to undertake disproportionate retaliation. Any Iranian allies in the region, such as those in Syria or Iraq, would face the same.

What this move has done is to vastly widen the circumstances under which Israel can attack Iran without facing condemnation in the Arab world. The balance of power has shifted dramatically in the region since the 1970s, when it was Israel facing unified hostility.

Now it is Iran that faces hostility. How unified it will be remains to be seen. Unity is rare in the Arab world, but the risks to Arab regimes of both participating in and destabilizing the emerging structure would be too big a stake. Many things could go wrong, but it is a profound redefinition of the Middle East.

Trade will be the toughest test for Biden’s foreign policy

Joe Biden campaigned to restore America’s standing in the world by repairing ties with the US allies, create greater domestic equity through improvements in the Affordable Care Act and aggressive efforts to advance the interests of women and minorities, and accelerate US efforts to reduce greenhouse gases.

Biden can’t accomplish these massive programs without big deficits or taxes, which a Republican Senate is not likely to permit. He could pay his campaign debts with surgical improvements to the ACA funded by dedicated levies, and coax Republican cooperation by offering torts reform and bending to wherever ideas the GOP may have about improving competition. He also needs more aggressive enforcement from Justice Department Civil Rights Division and Departments of Labor and Education.

Internationally, Biden must reckon with a China that will soon have a larger economy, has an impressive navy, is flexing its muscles in the South China Sea and Straights of Taiwan, and suppressing democracy in Hong Kong. At best we are in a stalemate and at worst, we could be pulled into a ruinous confrontation that establishes China as the pre-eminent power in the Pacific.

France and Germany combined are as populous as and about four times richer than Russia. Clearly the Europeans can afford to entirely provide for their own defense. The Europeans will be told, albeit more politely, to do much more for themselves, because America’s resources are needed in the Pacific.

China’s economy is at once complex—a state-orchestrated market system, similar to  that of Germany and Japan in the 1930s—and simple—a free rider in the international trading system created principally by the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The WTO permitted China to accomplish export-led growth and create an economic and military juggernaut that is now bent on reshaping the entire global system to serve the values and vision of the Chinese Communist Party.

The WTO system was designed to link together democratic market economies and assist developing countries by establishing rules that promote trade based on comparative advantage. The agreements very much look as if they were written by economists to create work for lawyers.

Beyond reducing tariffs and quotas—quite effectively but for agriculture and textiles—the WTO agreements lay out general rules for product standards, customs administration, subsidies, intellectual property regimes and other instruments of domestic policy that clever bureaucrats can manipulate for mercantilist purposes. It leaves to dispute settlement panels and an Appellate Body to elaborate their situational meaning.

The rules are general, because technology and the ways governments can subvert open trade are constantly evolving. A de facto common law system has emerged, which when it works well, provides predictable limits on the protectionist pressures special interests can bring to bear on domestic politicians.

China’s economic system is too inconsistent with Western market economies for the WTO to accommodate. It has run circles around WTO dispute settlement and does most whatever it likes. It targets Western industries by closing its markets, forces foreign investors to transfer technology to gain market access, and subsidizes exports. It has accomplished dominant positions, for example, in solar panels and 5G technology.

The Obama and Trump administrations responded by refusing to approve judges to the Appellate Body and that crippled dispute settlement. The Europeans, Chinese and others countered  the US policy by creating a contingent arbitration mechanism outside the WTO to review dispute settlement panel findings.

China should not be in the WTO, but the Europeans want to deal with Beijing there. China has grown too large for the United States to confront without allies, and the Europeans want tangible gestures that show Trump era abuse of America First is over. President Donald Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs are on the table but the Europeans have quite a laundry list of issues.

Ambassador Robert Lighthizer proposed replacing the Appellate Body with bilateral arbitration that would not set precedents—but without precedents, the WTO system is rudderless and subject to the whims of the biggest player—soon to be China.

The Biden administration could approve the appointment of new appellate judges but condition that on an American exception for dispute settlement with China.

That would permit the United States to impose remedies it deemed necessary to counter China’s aggressive protectionism and force the Europeans and other advanced industrialized countries to consider the same. China needs trade to prosper. Excluding China from WTO dispute settlement would force it to take multilateral negotiations more seriously or face increasing isolation.

Israeli Iron Dome intercepts cruise missiles for first time

The Israel Missile Defense Organization (IMDO) has successfully completed a series of live-fire intercept tests of the Iron Dome and David’s Sling weapon systems against threat-representative cruise and ballistic missiles. It is the first time the Iron Dome system intercepted a cruise missile. The tests demonstrated an interoperable capability of the different interception system.

The IMDO is a division of the Defense Ministry. The tests were conducted in cooperation with the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA).

Rafael Advanced Systems led the tests via a testing site in Central Israel, with the participation of the IAF and the Navy.

The successful series is a critical milestone in the augmentation of Israel’s operational capabilities in defending itself against current and future threats, the Defense Ministry said in a press release.

The series tested the capabilities of a new and advanced version of David’s Sling and included a number of scenarios simulating future threats. The results of these tests will enable IMDO and industry engineers to evaluate and upgrade the system’s capabilities.

The IMDO and Rafael also successfully demonstrated the capabilities of the Iron Dome in intercepting a variety of threats, including UAVs and cruise missiles, the Defense Ministry said. Moreover, it demonstrated the interoperability of the multilayered air-defense mechanism (Arrow missile, David’s Sling and Iron Dome), helping ensure that these systems will be able to intercept different threats simultaneously during a conflict.

“For the first time, [the test] assessed the combined interception capabilities of the multilayered air-defense system of the State of Israel,” Defense Minister Benny Gantz said. “This is one of the most advanced air-defense mechanisms in the world, and it protects the state from threats near and far.”

“The systems in this multilayered mechanism provide Israel with a top-tier strategic capability, enabling us to operate effectively in every scenario,” he said.

Brig-General (Retired) Pini Yungman, Executive Vice President and head of Rafael’s Air and Missile Defense Division said, “The capability that was demonstrated in this series of tests ensures the security of the State of Israel and its ability to contend with current and future threats. When the different systems in the multilayered mechanism are combined, they may face a variety of simultaneous threats and defend the citizens of the State of Israel.”

Representatives of the MDA and Israeli defense industries, as well as IAF soldiers, participated in the tests.

Rafael is the prime contractor for the development of David’s Sling, in cooperation with the American company Raytheon. IAI’s Elta Systems developed the MMR radar, and Elbit Systems developed the Golden Almond BMC.

“I would also like to thank our partners in the US Department of Defense, US Missile Defense Agency, US government and US Congress, which supports the State of Israel in the development of these systems and aids us in ensuring Israel’s security and operational superiority,” Gantz said.

What could be likely fate of Abraham Accords in Biden era?

Biden is in favor of the Abraham Accords, but they have strings attached that make his administration uncomfortable. There are expectations that the strings attached to the Abraham Accords will not be cut by the Biden administration. The US has a clear system of continuity, especially when it comes to diplomatic positions. The world has seen this with Israel over the decades. Biden may have drastically different view on foreign policy than Trump, but he is likely to make certain compromises.

Over the last few days, two countries ‑ Morocco and Bhutan – have established relations with Israel. It seems more normalizations will come in the coming weeks before US President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration on January 20.

US Vice President Mike Pence is going to Israel and may announce that some other countries have forged diplomatic ties with Israel. It’s yet unclear which these countries are, but Saudi Arabia is not likely to be one of them. The Kingdom is expected to wait and see how things go with Biden administration before making any move.

Broadly, Biden favors the Abraham Accords, which have led to ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. He and his foreign policy advisers have said positive things about them. Still they likely to seek normalizations come in conjunction with progress in the peace process with Palestinians.

Biden administration may not pursue diplomatic ties for Israel and Arab countries with the same zeal as US President Donald Trump, but it would be unlikely to create any obstacles. Let no one forget these normalizations have strings attached that could be uncomfortable for the Biden administration.

Many senior Emirati figures, along with high-level Israeli and American officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, have said that the sale of F-35 fighter jets to the UAE was not part of the negotiations leading to the Abraham Accords.

That sale just squeaked by a Senate bill aiming to block it, but whether it will be completed before Trump leaves office is unclear. Biden could oppose the sale because many Democrats in the Senate are concerned about UAE’s involvement in the wars in Yemen and Libya.

Sudan is keen in getting off the US list of state sponsors of terrorism, seeks debt forgiveness and aid after Omar al-Bashir was overthrown last year. The US insisted that diplomatic relations with Israel be part of the deal and Sudan pushed for “legal peace,” by which Khartoum will pay over US$300 million to victims of terror, and no further lawsuits can be brought against the country for its past support for terrorism.

This, too, faced obstacles in Congress, though supporting Sudan’s nascent democracy has bipartisan support. Senators Robert Menendez and Chuck Schumer seeking to carve out an exception for victims of the 9/11 attacks, among others, to sue Sudan, which harbored Osama bin Laden and hosted Al Qaeda training camps in the 1990s.

Sudanese officials have told US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that they will not move forward with ties with Israel if the bill granting Khartoum immunity from future lawsuits does not pass by the end of 2020.

In the meantime, an Israeli economic delegation has already been to Sudan, and Israel has been lobbying Congress to pass the legal immunity bill, without taking a position on 9/11 victims. Sudan may not stop the normalization process, because Israel can help the East African country in Washington.

Democrats do not generally oppose the “legal peace” for Sudan, even though details must still be worked out, and Biden has not said anything to indicate he would block it. Yet the matter is unlikely to be at the top of his agenda if it is not done by 20th January 2021, and those delays could be a strain on the new Sudan-Israel ties.

Morocco is perhaps the most controversial move of all three. The US became the first country to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. The Trump administration’s message was that decades of attempts at negotiations between Morocco and the leadership of the Sahrawi, the non-Moroccan people living in the region, have gone nowhere and autonomy under Morocco’s king is the way to move forward.

This has serious implications when it comes to international law that can radiate outward to Judea and Samaria, Crimea and beyond – as different as those land disputes may be – and the Trump administration has boxed Biden into a change of policy.

Iran, India and Uzbekistan meeting on Chabahar Port

Iran, India, and Uzbekistan are scheduled to hold their first online meeting on cooperation in Iran's Chabahar Port on Monday, 14th December 2020, the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced.

The trilateral working group meeting will be jointly chaired by Deputy Ministers of Iran and Uzbekistan and a secretary from India, Hindustan Times reported.

The announcement came a day after Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev proposed during a summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi that a trilateral meeting should be held with Iran to promote Chabahar port.

According to the website of the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Indian Government welcomes Uzbekistan's interest in using Chabahar port, in Southeastern Iran, as a transit port, which provides economic opportunities for traders in the region.

In addition to Uzbekistan, other Central Asian countries have shown interest in using the port.

“This would open up economic opportunities for the traders and business community of the region. Besides Uzbekistan, other Central Asian countries have also shown interest in using the port. India seeks to cooperate closely with regional countries on this issue,” the statement by the Indian ministry said.

India currently operates one of the terminals of Chabahar port and offers loading and unloading services in the mentioned terminal.

“The strategic project has been given a waiver from sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran in view of its importance in shipping cargo and humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan," the report highlighted.

Following an India-Uzbekistan Summit on Friday, Adarsh Swaika, Joint Secretary (Eurasia), Indian External Affairs Ministry, said the two sides had discussed the ways to overcome the lack of overland connectivity.

Mirziyoyev gave his in-principle concurrence to joining the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) when Modi reiterated a proposal on Uzbekistan’s participation in the project.

“We would welcome any initiative that increases connectivity between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan or with other Central Asian countries,” Swaika said.

Chabahar Port, the only Iranian ocean port, is a strategic port with unique opportunities that can attract investments from Iranian and foreign private sectors.

The development of the Chabahar Port is important for the economic development of regional countries and in this regard endorsing regional agreements with neighboring countries are of significant importance for Iran so that it can increase its transit share to connect the shores of the Indian Ocean to Russia, northern Central Asia, and the Caucasus.

Oman Indonesia likely next in line to normalize relations with Israel

According to some diplomatic sources, the two countries that are in line to establish diplomatic relations with Israel in the coming weeks are Oman and Indonesia.

The Trump administration is continuing its efforts to bring more Arab and Muslim countries into the Abraham Accords, in which the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco have already agreed to normalize relations with Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu said on Saturday night, after Bhutan agreed to forged ties with Israel outside of the framework of the accords, that Israel is “in touch with additional countries that want to join and establish relations with us.”

Regional Cooperation Minister Ofir Akunis confirmed to Army Radio on Sunday morning that Vice President Mike Pence would visit Israel in January 2021. According to Akunis, during his visit, Pence may announce that another country will establish relations with Israel.

The source identified Oman and Indonesia as two countries with which talks have advanced and with whom normalization could be announced before US President Donald Trump leaves office on 20th January 2021.

On Friday, Oman welcomed the announcement of ties between Israel and Morocco, expressing hope that they will further endeavor to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting peace in the Middle East.

Netanyahu visited Oman in 2018 and met with its then-leader, the late Sultan Qaboos. Israel had enjoyed unofficial trade relations with Oman during 1994-2000, and the countries cooperate in opposing Iranian aggression.

Israel and Indonesia do not have formal diplomatic relations but there is trade and tourism between them and Indonesia bought arms from Israel in the 1970s and 1980s and Indonesian soldiers were trained in Israel.

Then-prime minister Yitzhak Rabin met Indonesian president Suharto in Jakarta in 1993.

Contrary to Hebrew media reports, the diplomatic source said normalization with Saudi Arabia was unlikely before US President-elect Joe Biden enters office, although the Saudis have given tacit approval to other parts of the Abraham Accords

Israel normalizes ties with Bhutan

Israel established full diplomatic relations with Bhutan for the first time on Saturday. Israeli Ambassador to India, Ron Malka and his Bhutanese counterpart Vetsop Namgyel signed the final agreement normalizing ties.

The countries’ foreign ministries held secret talks over the past year for forging official ties, which included visit of delegations to the two capitals, Jerusalem and Thimphu.

The effort to establish relations between the two countries was not connected to the Abraham Accords, which led to four Arab countries – United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco normalizing ties with Israel over the last four months, through the US mediation. Interestingly, Bhutan does not even have official diplomatic relations with the US.

Bhutan a Buddhist kingdom in the Himalayas enjoys border with India and the Tibet, Autonomous Region of China. It has gone to great lengths to keep itself isolated from the rest of the world in order to avoid outside influences and to preserve its culture and natural resources. The country limits tourism, especially from outside South Asia.

The landlocked country has formal diplomatic relations with only 53 other countries – a list that does not include the US, UK, France and Russia, has embassies in only seven of them. Neither does the country have ties with China, having closed its border to the country on its north after China’s 1959 invasion of Tibet.

Malka said in an exclusive interview with The Jerusalem Post that the ceremony marking official diplomatic relations between Israel and Bhutan was “exciting... modest, but very special.” The ambassador said that in recent years, Bhutanese governments have reached out to Israel.

“They have been impressed by Israel’s abilities for many years, and their prime minister wanted relations,” he said. “We advise them on topics that are important to them like water management, agriculture and technology... education and professional training as well. They’re very interested in the topic of medicine.”

Bhutan’s government “thinks of Israel as a leading country in technology and innovation that can help them progress and use more advanced technology and train their youth.”

Another area in which Thimphu has sought Jerusalem’s advice is in building a national service program for its youth.

As for tourism, the country that limits the number of outsiders who can enter will now likely be more open to Israelis, Malka said, though no precise numbers have been discussed.

“They let very few people visit, even though it is very attractive, because they want to preserve its history and its nature and environment,” Malka said. “It was very hard before, but now Israelis will be more accepted – and they will want to develop [Israeli] tourism.”

Malka has visited Bhutan twice and said that it is “a very special place that is different from anywhere else. They really preserved their culture and their natural resources. There is not even one traffic light; it is very natural.”

It is still unclear if Israel will open an embassy in Thimphu; Malka may become the non-resident ambassador to Bhutan, just as he is to Sri Lanka in addition to residing in Delhi, from which Thimphu is a two-hour flight.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi and Foreign Minister of Bhutan Tandy Dorji spoke on the phone last weekend.

“I want to thank the Kingdom of Bhutan and praise the decision to establish full diplomatic relations with Israel,” Ashkenazi said. “I invite my friend Foreign Minister Dorji to visit Israel to promote cooperation between the countries. I hope that in the next year we will host the King of Bhutan for his first official visit to Israel.”

Ashkenazi also thanked Malka and the embassy staff for working to strengthen Israel’s ties to Bhutan and for bringing them to fruition.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised the new relations and called it “another fruit of the peace agreements,” adding that Israel is in touch with more countries that want to establish ties with the Jewish state.

Hundreds of Bhutanese citizens have participated in agricultural training programs through MASHAV, Israel’s development agency.

Israel briefly had a non-resident ambassador to Bhutan in 2010. Mark Sofer, was ambassador to India and non-resident ambassador to Sri Lanka at the time.

In 2017, Gilad Cohen, the head of Israel’s Asia-Pacific division, became the most senior Israeli official to visit Bhutan. During his trip, he met the country’s prime minister.

Bhutan, which is about twice as large as Israel but only has 800,000 residents, is thought to be one of the most beautiful countries in the world, allowing television and the Internet only in 1999.

It uniquely measures its quality of life by “Gross National Happiness” instead of gross domestic product (GDP) – in fact, the World Happiness Report was a joint initiative of the Bhutanese prime Minister and the UN secretary General in 2011.

That metric emphasizes sustainable development, environmental conservation, preservation of culture and good governance, as well as mental and physical health, among other values.

The Bhutanese are thought to be among the happiest people in the world, and the happiest in Asia, but they are also among the world’s poorest.