The basic question is straightforward: who will provide
security to ships and their crews, and in return, who will collect charges for
ensuring safe passage? Geographically, the Strait lies between Iran and Oman,
making these two coastal states the natural stakeholders in any future
arrangement.
For decades, the Gulf security framework was built around a
strong American military presence. The United States played a major role in
protecting maritime routes and reassuring regional allies. However, the
geopolitical landscape has changed. Past arrangements no longer fully reflect
current realities.
Iran, despite years of sanctions and pressure, has emerged
as a major regional power with significant influence over Gulf security
dynamics. Its location at the Strait of Hormuz provides it with a strategic position
that cannot be ignored. Any future framework governing the waterway will have
to acknowledge Iran’s role as a neighbouring coastal state.
At the same time, Arab states are reassessing the assumption
that their long-term security can depend entirely on external guarantees. The
perception that Washington’s regional priorities are closely linked with
Israel’s security interests has encouraged some Gulf countries to reconsider
the balance between strategic partnerships and regional self-reliance.
This does not mean that the United States has lost its
influence in the Gulf. Its military presence, diplomatic reach, and economic
relationships remain significant. However, influence is different from
ownership. A foreign security role does not automatically translate into
authority over a waterway located within the jurisdiction of coastal states.
The discussion over Iran’s proposed transit charge —
reportedly around one dollar per barrel — highlights the larger issue.
Financially, such a fee may appear limited when compared with global oil
prices. The real significance is political: accepting such an arrangement would
symbolize recognition of a greater regional role for Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz carries a substantial share of global
energy supplies. Any disruption affects oil, gas, fertilizer, food costs, and
global inflation. Therefore, the world has a direct interest in stability and
predictable rules.
The future of Hormuz may not be determined only by military
strength. It will depend on whether a new regional understanding emerges — one
that balances international navigation rights with the legitimate interests of
countries bordering the Strait.
The central question is no longer whether Iran and Oman have
influence over Hormuz. They already do. The real question is whether the world
is prepared for a new security arrangement where regional powers play a greater
role in managing regional affairs.
