On the one hand, President Trump declared on Saturday night
that a deal with Iran had been ‘largely negotiated’ and the Strait of Hormuz
would be included in a potential deal. On the other, Iran’s semi-official news
agency, Tasnim, said on Sunday that under draft terms of the US-Iran
negotiations, the Strait ‘will not return’ to pre-war status, but added more uncertainty
by stating that ship traffic would return to previous levels.
Whatever happens in the next few days, the tanker market
will take months to return to some semblance of normality. If there is a deal,
London-based shipbroker, Gibson, expects some residual hesitancy in transiting
the Strait, with only higher-risk owner ready to commit. The voyages are likely
to follow tried and tested post-war routes close to the Iranian or Omani
coastlines, the broker said, especially as uncertainty remains over the
location of possible mines.
Gibson said that of the 157 mainstream tankers of more than
25,000 dwt lying in the Gulf at the time of its report, 123 were laden and
‘will attempt to exit swiftly’.
Meanwhile there are 150 ballasters above that deadweight promptly
positioned in the Gulf of Oman and ready to be fixed for export cargoes in
short order. Freight rates will be high and volatile, the broker predicted,
until the risks and hazards are deemed to be low.
Port congestion is likely, loading schedules will have to
re-established, export infrastructure and port operations remain uncertain. But
all parties in the supply chain will be keen to get cargoes moving again as
quickly as possible.
However, Gibson also points out that there are further
challenges in the longer term. It could take months for tanker positioning to
return to normal.
Significantly more tankers are now positioned in the West
largely because of record volumes of both crude and product exports out of the
US Gulf.
Ballasters are unlikely to react immediately and
Western-located tankers are weeks away from the Gulf. Their owners will be
unlikely to commit to a pricy ballast haul without a paying cargo to cover the
eastbound leg, Gibson said.
Overall, the shipbroker’s analysis is cautiously optimistic.
But some on the ground in the Gulf are less so.
ADNOC CEO, Sultan Al Jaber, attending an Atlantic
Council event last Wednesday, said: “Even if this conflict ends tomorrow, it
will take at least four months to get back to 80 per cent of pre-conflict
flows, and full flows will not return before the first or even second quarter
of 2027”.
Analysts said that this was among the most pessimistic of
views from top industry executives. However, it underscored the severity
of what the International Energy Agency has called the largest-ever energy
crisis because of the almost total closure of the Strait.
Courtesy: Seatrade Maritime New
