Palm oil glut to impact producing countries

According to Nikkei Asia, weak prices for palm oil are pushing Indonesia and Malaysia - two of the world's biggest producers to boost domestic use through developing jet fuels and expanding biodiesel programs.

Widely used in Indonesia for cooking oil and applications such as personal care and cleaning products, palm oil is an important sector in Southeast Asia's largest economy with the industry employing millions of workers. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter and it is the country's top export commodity, apart from coal. Palm oil is similarly important in neighboring Malaysia, the world's second-largest producer and exporter.

The benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) price in Malaysia ranged from 3,500 ringgit (US$755) to 4,200 ringgit per ton between January and June. That is compared to the all-time high in April 2022 of almost 7,000 ringgit per ton, following the launch of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which sent prices of all edible oils skyrocketing. That run-up in prices for palm oil, traditionally the cheapest among vegetable oils, was a continuation of one caused by pandemic-related disruptions since late 2020.

"Elevated inventories in India and mainland China, an expected increase in global soybean production through the 2023-24 season, and the upcoming September-October period of peak palm fruit yields - all point to downward pressure on prices through the remainder of 2023, BMI, a research unit of Fitch Group, said in an August 15, 2023 note.

"Through the medium term, it remains our view that average annual palm oil prices will continue to ease."

BMI forecast an average price of 3,800 ringgit per ton for Bursa Malaysia-listed third-month palm oil futures contracts in 2023, down from the average of 4,910 per ton last year. It also forecast prices will continue to fall, reaching 2,400 ringgit a ton in 2027 -- on par with a five-year pre-COVID pandemic average of close to 2,420 ringgit per ton.

The declines have hurt incomes of major palm oil producers after many enjoyed record profits in 2021 and 2022.

In Malaysia, state-owned conglomerate Sime Darby Plantation reported that second-quarter net profit fell by 54% to 380 million ringgit from the same period in 2022. FGV Holdings, also government linked, saw its plantation sector plunge 97% to 13.76 million ringgit, mainly due to the lower average CPO price compared to the previous year and on top of lower CPO sales and 37% higher CPO production costs.

In Indonesia, net income at top producers Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology, Astra Agro Lestari and Salim Ivomas Pratama declined 85%, 54% and 71%, respectively, in the first half of 2023, to 284.3 billion rupiah ($18.7 million), 367.6 billion rupiah and 128.4 billion rupiah.

Political issues also weigh on producers. A European Union regulation on deforestation-free supply chains entered force on June 29, 2023. S&P Global said in August that combined with the EU's renewable energy directive, which limits the use of palm oil for biofuel in EU markets starting in 2030, the new law is "seen as another layer of restrictions by palm oil producing countries."

Indonesia and Malaysia account for about 85% of global palm oil trade while the EU is typically the third largest importer after China and India. Indonesia, Malaysia and the EU have reportedly agreed to form an ad hoc task force to hash out issues related to the implementation of the deforestation regulation.

To deal with the market and political pressures, Jakarta and Kuala Lumpur are seeking new ways to utilize the commodity.

State-owned airline Garuda Indonesia in August announced the start of a static test on a "sustainable aviation fuel," or "bioavtur," on an engine used in its Boeing B737-800 NG fleet, with ground and flight tests to follow. Garuda's bio jet fuel is jointly developed by Indonesian state oil company Pertamina and the Bandung Institute of Technology.

Also last month, Indonesia expanded its mandatory B35 biodiesel program -- produced by Pertamina -- nationwide, after a partial introduction in February. B35 has a higher palm oil content in the diesel mix than the B30 launched in early 2020. Indonesia is next targeting B40 for 2030.

Indonesia is pushing the biodiesel program expansion as palm oil prices have fallen from the record highs. Malaysia is also exploring its own biofuel efforts.

The Malaysian Palm Oil Board and state energy giant Petronas signed an agreement in August to study using cooking oil and palm oil waste as sustainable aviation fuel. In the second phase of the National Energy Transition Roadmap launched late last month, the government included a B30 biodiesel mandate on heavy vehicles by 2030 after rollout by 2025.

Yusuf Rendy Manilet, economist at Indonesian think tank Center of Reform on Economics, sees Indonesia's biofuel policy as ultimately viable. 

"The government's goal is to reduce dependency on imports of oil by leveraging biofuels in order to improve the trade balance," Manilet told Nikkei Asia. "In the long run, with more biofuels becoming available and oil imports reduced ... fuels will become more affordable and lead to improving purchasing power."

BMI said increasing biofuels uptake could pose a "major upside risk" to its price outlook for edible oils overall. "An increase in the rate of diversion of palm oil to the manufacture of blended biofuels -- or, the greater diversion of alternative edible oils, such as soy oil, to biofuels - would tighten the supplies of edible oils for food consumption."

It added that the developing El Nino weather phenomenon, marked by drier and hotter weather in Southeast Asia, poses another major upside risk to its palm oil price outlook over the next 12 to 18 months -- although "much depends on the eventual strength of the El Nino event itself."

BMI said the 2014-16 El Nino, one of the most severe of modern times, led to double-digit annual declines in percentage terms for crop yields in both Malaysia and Indonesia over the 2015-16 season -which resulted in palm oil prices rising by 1,000 ringgit per ton during the period.

EPA proposes sales of higher ethanol blend gasoline

The US Environmental Protection Agency on Wednesday proposed a rule that would allow sales of gasoline with a higher ethanol blend in certain US Midwest states - a win for corn growers but a potential logistical challenge for the oil industry.

The proposal comes in response to a request from the governors of corn-producing Midwestern states including Iowa, Nebraska and Illinois, that the agency lifts an effective ban on E15, or fuel containing 15% ethanol, to lower pump prices and help farmers.

The EPA's proposal would take effect in the summer of 2024, a year later than the governors had requested.

The EPA enforces summertime regulations preventing E15 sales because of concerns it contributes to smog in hot weather. Research has shown, however, that E15 may not increase smog more than E10, which is sold year-round and contains 10% ethanol.

Proponents of the EPA's proposal say that increased E15 supply would lower pump prices by expanding the volume of available fuel, and help farmers in the meantime.

However, critics of the idea - including those in the refining industry - have voiced concerns that a piecemeal approach to augmenting E15 sales could lead to distribution challenges.

Both the biofuel and oil industries have said they would prefer a nationwide policy allowing E15.

The EPA will hold a public hearing for the proposed rule in late March or early April 2023, it said.

The American Petroleum Institute, an oil group, said major changes to the fuel infrastructure system will be needed to accomplish the governors' request, because high ethanol fuel grades require different equipment.

The API expects an additional one or two years beyond 2024 will be needed to minimize impacts to consumers, said Will Hupman, API's vice president of downstream policy.

The oil refining industry has traditionally balked at efforts to expand the ethanol market because it competes with gasoline at the pump and can be costly to blend.

The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers, an oil trade group, said late on Tuesday that implementing a new fuel blend in select states in 2024 would create issues, including leaving the Midwest region with tighter fuel supplies during the peak summer driving season.

"Not every refinery, pipeline and terminal serving the Midwest has the ability to seamlessly produce, transport and store a new blend of gasoline, and it could take years to permit and complete infrastructure projects to resolve this," said Patrick Kelly, AFPM's senior director of fuels and vehicle policy.

The rule could cost the Midwest's fuel supply chain and consumers up to US$800 million per year, Kelly added.

The biofuel industry gave a mixed response to the announcement.

The Renewable Fuels Association said it was glad to see the EPA taking action, but disappointed that it was a year later than the governors had requested.

"By law, EPA should have finalized approval of the governors' petition more than seven months ago, which would have given the marketplace more than enough time to adjust and prepare for implementation this summer," said Geoff Cooper, the RFA's chief executive.

Members of the biofuel industry say E15 saves consumers money. Drivers saved an average of 16 cents per gallon this past summer because of E15, said Growth Energy Chief Executive Emily Skor.

US President Joe Biden lifted the ban last summer to try to lower historically-high gasoline prices.

Some in the oil industry are so opposed to a piecemeal approach to E15, that in November they supported for the first time a bill to expand nationwide sales of E15.

The legislation was introduced by Senator Deb Fischer from Nebraska and Senator Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota and supported by the American Petroleum Institute.

Both oil and biofuel groups this week reiterated that a nationwide, legislative fix would be the best solution.

"A legislative approach that addresses the needs of all stakeholders would provide a more durable and less disruptive solution than creating requirements for costly new fuel blends," AFPM's Kelly said.

 

bp joins Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation as a strategic partner

bp has joined the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation (GCMD) as a strategic partner, which was marked by a partnership agreement ceremony in Singapore. GCMD was set up to help drive decarbonisation of the maritime industry and bp is pleased to be working with GCMD to help further this aim.

GCMD is based in Singapore – one of the world’s busiest ports. It was set up as a non-profit organization in August last year to help the maritime industry meet or exceed the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) GHG emission reduction goals for 2030 and 2050. It aims to achieve this by creating opportunities for cross-industry collaboration and sharing its projects’ outcomes, aimed at helping fuel the energy transition within the maritime industry. This partnership adds S$10 million (USD$7.4 million) in funding, giving GCMD’s efforts a further boost.

Carol Howle, bp’s executive vice president for trading & shipping, said: “bp has helped shape the shipping industry for more than 100 years. A net zero future for the maritime sector demands industry collaboration, and GCMD is bringing to the forefront the conversations that matter most. As part of GCMD, we look forward to working with key industry players to further progress solutions at the pace and scale needed to help this carbon-intensive sector transition.”

Professor Lynn Loo, GCMD’s chief executive officer, said, “bp’s net zero ambitions and investments in low carbon solutions are aligned with GCMD’s mission and projects. Together with bp and our other partners, we aim to foster collaboration to address challenges and untangle the complexities of decarbonising shipping. We look forward to working closely with and leveraging bp’s experience and expertise in our pilots and trials.”

bp trading & shipping (T&S) is one of the world’s leading energy trading houses. At any one time, about 300 ships are on the water for bp, enabling it to move around 240 million tonnes of product every year. bp will look to leverage GCMD’s findings in its own maritime activities and share developing best practices with its customers through bp’s gas and low carbon energy business that integrates the company’s existing natural gas capabilities with its low and zero carbon businesses and markets, including wind, solar and hydrogen.

bp is also supporting zero carbon supply chains by driving new decarbonisation technologies and capabilities to create innovative zero carbon energy solutions. Safe development of hydrogen, ammonia, biofuel, and carbon markets is a priority for bp, and aligning with the GCMD on these projects provides a strategic fit.

As part of the partnership, Lambros Klaoudatos, bp’s senior vice president of shipping, will sit on GCMD’s board. The strategic partnership with GCMD follows bp’s ties with the Global Maritime Forum (GMF), Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping (MMMCZCS) in Europe and the Blue Sky Maritime Coalition in the US. Together, these organizations are helping drive decarbonisation of the maritime sector and provide global support for bp’s maritime decarbonisation journey across its key trading and shipping regions in Asia, Europe and the US.