Iran third largest oil producer of OPEC family

According to OPEC’s first report of 2025, Iran maintained its position as the organization’s third-largest oil producer in December 2024, with an average daily production of 3.314 million barrels.

Data from OPEC’s Secretariat revealed that the organization’s 12 member states produced a combined total of 26.741 million barrels per day (bpd) in December, marking an increase of 26,000 bpd from November.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq retained their positions as the top two producers, with daily outputs of 8.938 million barrels and 4.019 million barrels, respectively.

Production from OPEC Plus members, which includes OPEC countries and allied producers, reached 13.913 million bpd in December, a decrease of 40,000 bpd compared to the previous month.

Overall, the combined output of OPEC and its allies in December totalled 40.654 million bpd, slightly lower than November’s 40.669 million bpd.

Iran’s heavy crude oil price averaged US$73 per barrel in December 2024, reflecting 0.3% increase. For the entire year of 2024, the average price of Iran’s heavy crude stood at US$79.71 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the OPEC Reference Basket price averaged US$73.07 per barrel in December 2024, a 1.0%MoM increase.

OPEC’s January report forecasts that global oil demand will grow by 1.45 million bpd in 2025, reaching a total of 105.2 million bpd.

The organization also projects that global demand will rise by an additional 1.43 million bpd in 2026, bringing the total to 105.63 million bpd.

  

Red sea threats likely to prevail over

A potential end is in sight to the war between Israel and Hamas that has claimed tens of thousands of lives and upended international supply chains, although last minute wranglings over the terms of a ceasefire are ongoing.

A ceasefire in the conflict that sparked Houthi attacks on shipping in the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden will not immediately remove the risk to ships within the Houthis’ range of attack from the coast of Yemen.

Speaking to Seatrade Maritime News on January 14, Daniel Muller, Intelligence Analyst for the Middle East at Ambrey, said that the Houthi attacks on shipping are closely linked to the war in Gaza as a means of targeting assets linked to Israel and its allies. However, the point at which Houthi attacks will end is unclear, and there is a risk of a return to civil war in Yemen, he warned.

“It is assessed highly unlikely the Israel Defence Forces would withdraw from the Gaza Strip straight away. Therefore, it is assessed unlikely that a ceasefire would immediately result in the Houthi ceasing attacks on merchant shipping. Ambrey assesses the Houthi actions to be linked to Israeli military forces operating within the Strip,” said Muller.

While the details of the ceasefire agreement have not been officially announced, reports indicate that it will bring about a three-stage process, beginning in the first stage with a full and complete ceasefire for six weeks, the release of dozens of hostages, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from populated areas of Gaza.

The second stage would see remaining Israeli hostages released along with the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, and a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

The third and final stage is understood to be the reconstruction of Gaza, which has been devastated by Israeli strikes and invasion since October 2023.

“Ambrey assesses the Houthi actions to be linked to Israeli military forces operating within the Strip,” said Muller. If that assessment holds to be true, the Houthi threat to shipping would remain until the end of stage two of the peace process. The risk assessment for ships is complicated by a recent lull in attacks, due in part to reduced Houthi capacity and in part to a lack of viable targets as ships continue to avoid the area within Houthi targeting range. A long break in attacks will need to be assessed against viable opportunities to attack targets considered valid by the Houthis.

Whether the ceasefire progresses or not, the political situation in Yemen will remain of significance to the shipping industry, as developments there could lead the Houthis to target a wider range of vessels.

“A resurgence of the Yemeni Civil War remains possible, which could lead to a change in intent, targeting coalition shipping instead of Israel-affiliated vessels.

The US is reportedly attempting to garner the intelligence support of Saudi Arabia and the Internationally Recognised Government of Yemen to increase the effectiveness of US airstrikes against the Houthi.

“The Houthi have repeatedly warned Saudi Arabia not to intervene against the Houthi’s attacks on Israel. Any active support of US airstrikes in northwest Yemen may be construed as a direct attack against the Houthi and a revival of the Yemeni Civil War. Renewed clashes in Taiz in December 2024 did not lead to an escalation of the internal conflict yet indicated the fragility of the unofficial ceasefire,” said Muller.

Muller said a return to ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would be gradual, a point Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, agreed with.

“Xeneta does not expect a full return to Red Sea transits immediately. But the ceasefire may mean that more shipowners will look at the risk differently and therefore perhaps bring ships back.

At first those containerships with a capacity below 10,000 teu, lastly the very large 18,000-24,000 teu containerships,” Sand noted in a Linkedin post.

Sand said a return to the Red Sea will bring increased scrapping in the containership segment, as the market loses the roughly 1.8 million teu of capacity demand sustained by rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope. Plans will be in place for the return to the Red Sea, he said, a position supported by the new container alliances due to come online next month, which have published plans for both Suez Canal and Cape of Good Hope rotations.

Freight rates across the container, tanker and dry bulk markets are expected to fall significantly when the Red Sea reopens.

 

Lebanon: Growing Mistrust

The stance of those who have deliberately thwarted Hezbollah’s political victory in the presidential race and who openly declare their absolute loyalty to Washington is not shocking. What is shocking, however, is the stance of Hezbollah’s so-called allies, who have shamefully submitted to the higher foreign orders.

According to the Tehran Times, this same team has expressed its concern about the anti-Hezbollah team's relentless attempt to drag Lebanon into a “civil conflict”. Hence, they have communicated with the Shiite duo in a bid to reach an understanding on forming a national cabinet capable of running Lebanon until the parliamentary elections scheduled for May 2026.

They further warned Judge Nawaf Salam, the prime minister-designate, to avoid “being manipulated as a tool of confronting the Shiites or the resistance (movement), and to take the initiative to expand the circle of trust in his upcoming government.”

The Saudi-American orders have dictated the renunciation of the “January 09 National Understanding” that secured the election of Gen. Joseph Aoun as president after pledging not to violate political balances.

Sources confirmed that Walid Bukhari, the Saudi ambassador to Beirut, met Fouad Makhzoumi (the founder of the National Dialogue Party and a member of the Renewal Bloc in the Lebanese Parliament) ordering him to withdraw from his candidacy. The meeting made it clear that the nomination of MPs Makhzoumi and Ashraf Rifi was nothing but a poor play.

President Aoun has been reportedly quoted as saying, “I found myself before an international and Arab opportunity to carry out a major rescue operation. The understanding was a way to facilitate matters. As for now, I do not know how things will go.  Nevertheless, I will do my best with the prime minister-designate so that the government is not formed in a way that threatens the stability of the country.”

“We regret those who want to spoil the consensual beginning of the presidential term. It is our right to demand a ‘constitutional government’. We will monitor the steps. We are waiting – with all wisdom – and we will see their efforts to ‘expel Israel and return the prisoners’,” said Mohammad Raad, the chief of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc. Raad intended to reassure the people, amidst the growing threats, that any “rebellion” will be met with unexpected retribution that will hinder the reconstruction of what was destroyed by the US-backed Israeli aggression.

Undeniably, Lebanon’s political dilemma has reached a dangerous peak. The selection of Judge Nawaf Salam to form the upcoming cabinet was nothing but a deception that the Hezbollah and Amal Movement duo were subjected to, especially since the anti-Hezbollah team wanted this entitlement as a political gain for Washington after its aggression failed to eliminate the resistance movement.

Seemingly, this team will not stop at excluding the legitimate representatives of the Shiites from the cabinet. It will take revenge on the very existence of the Shiites in the country, simply because of their anti-imperialism stance.

 

Saudi Arabia welcomes Gaza ceasefire

According to the Saudi Gazette, Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed the Kingdom's welcome of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, commending the efforts of Qatar, Egypt, and the United States in facilitating the deal.

Saudi Arabia emphasized the importance of adhering to the agreement, calling for an end to Israeli aggression in Gaza, the full withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces from the Gaza Strip and all Palestinian and Arab territories, and the return of displaced individuals to their homes.

The Kingdom further stressed the need to build on this agreement to address the root causes of the conflict.

It reaffirmed its support for the Palestinian people's rights, particularly their right to establish an independent state along the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Saudi Arabia expressed hope that this agreement would bring a permanent end to the brutal Israeli war, which has resulted in over 45,000 deaths and more than 100,000 injuries.

Earlier, Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman announced the success of mediators in reaching a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, noting that its implementation is set to begin this Sunday.

During a press conference in Doha, Sheikh Mohammed stated that the first phase of the agreement will last 42 days and include the release of 33 Israeli detainees in exchange for an unspecified number of Palestinian prisoners.

He highlighted that Qatar, Egypt, and the United States “will work to ensure the implementation of the agreement,” with mechanisms in place to monitor its execution and address any potential violations.

The Qatari minister expressed his hope that “no military operations would be conducted during the period leading up to the implementation of the agreement.”

 

 

Russia and Iran to sign strategic partnership

According to Reuters, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will hold talks in Russia on January 17 after which they will sign a long-awaited comprehensive strategic partnership pact, the Kremlin said on Monday.

The two leaders will discuss options for further expanding ties between Moscow and Tehran, including in the trade and investment, transport and logistics, and humanitarian spheres, the Kremlin said.

Putin and Pezeshkian will also talk about regional and international issues, it added.

Russia has developed closer ties with Iran and other countries hostile towards the United States, such as North Korea, since the start of the Ukraine war.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said in October last year that Moscow and Tehran intended to sign the strategic partnership pact which would include closer defence cooperation.

The United States accused Tehran in September last year of delivering close-range ballistic missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine, and imposed sanctions on ships and companies it said were involved in delivering Iranian weapons. Tehran denies providing Moscow with the missiles.

Syria: Others Deciding Future

Key Arab and international figures gathered in Riyadh for critical meetings on the future of Syria, focusing on humanitarian and political support one month after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan chaired the Arab foreign ministers’ meeting, which included the Arab League Secretary-General, the Gulf Cooperation Council Secretary-General, and top diplomats from Egypt, Syria, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, Oman, Lebanon, and Bahrain.

Western foreign ministers and the UN special envoy to Syria are set to join the discussions later, alongside the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock highlighted the opportunity for unified international action to rebuild Syria, calling for a Syrian-led political process.

Speaking to reporters, she said, "A united effort for fair dialogue and reconstruction offers hope for the Syrian people."

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy emphasized his country’s support for Syria's transitional government. Lammy stressed the need for inclusive governance, humanitarian aid, and measures to counter chemical weapons and ISIS threats.

"The international community must unite to back the Syrian people as they build a democratic and diverse nation," he said, announcing plans to meet with Prince Faisal bin Farhan and other regional leaders.

Saudi officials reiterated their commitment to supporting Syria, stating that the aid bridge will remain open until humanitarian stability is achieved, under the guidance of the Saudi leadership.

This meeting follows the December summit in Aqaba, Jordan, where the Ministerial Contact Committee affirmed their commitment to standing by the Syrian people during this transformative period.

Venezuela: Maduro sworn in for third term

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whose nearly 12 years in office have been marked by deep economic and social crisis, was sworn in for a third term on Friday, despite a six-month-long election dispute, international calls for him to stand aside, and an increase in the US reward offered for his capture, reports Reuters.

Maduro, president since 2013, was declared the winner of July 2024 election by both Venezuela's electoral authority and top court, though detailed tallies confirming his victory have never been published.

Venezuela's opposition says ballot box-level tallies show a landslide win for its former candidate Edmundo Gonzalez, who is recognized as president-elect by several countries, including the United States. International election observers said the vote was not democratic.

The months since the election have seen Gonzalez's flight to Spain in September, his ally Maria Corina Machado going into hiding in Venezuela, and the detentions of high-profile opposition figures and protesters.

Gonzalez has been on a whistle-stop tour of the Americas this week and had promised to return to Venezuela.

But Machado, appearing in a video posted on social media on Friday, said the moment was not right for his return.

"Edmundo will come to Venezuela to be sworn in as constitutional president of Venezuela at the right time," Machado said. "Today, it isn't viable for Edmundo to enter Venezuela. I've asked him not to do so because his integrity is fundamental for the final defeat of the regime and the transition to democracy, which is very close."

"Maduro consolidated the coup and the violation of our constitution," Machado added, calling for street protests. "It's time to do whatever is necessary to restore it."

The government, which has accused the opposition of fomenting fascist plots against it, has said Gonzalez will be arrested if he returns and offered a US$100,000 reward for information leading to his capture.

"Soon, very soon, whatever they do, we will manage to enter Venezuela and put an end to this tragedy," Gonzalez said in his own remarks from the Dominican Republic, asking the military to ignore "illegal orders" from Maduro and cease any repression.

In the latest in a series of punitive steps, the outgoing Biden administration increased its reward for information leading to the arrest or conviction of Maduro on drug trafficking charges to US$25 million, from a previous US$15 million.

It also issued a US$25 million reward for Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and a US$15 million reward for Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, as well as new sanctions against eight other officials including the head of state oil company PDVSA Hector Obregon.

The US indicted Maduro and others on narcotics and corruption charges, among others, in 2020. Maduro has rejected the accusations.

The US move coincided with sanctions by Britain and the European Union, each targeting 15 officials including members of the National Electoral Council and the security forces, and Canadian sanctions targeting 14 current and former officials.

The Maduro government has always rejected all sanctions, saying they are illegitimate measures that amount to an "economic war" designed to cripple Venezuela.

"The outgoing government of the United States doesn't know how to take revenge on us," Maduro said during his inauguration speech, without directly mentioning sanctions.

The Venezuelan communications ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the sanctions, while US officials declined to comment on possible further sanctions, including on the oil industry.

Maduro and his allies have cheered what they say is the country's resilience despite the measures, though they have historically blamed some economic hardships and shortages on sanctions.

Maduro's inauguration was illegitimate, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement, and the US will not recognize him as president.

"The Venezuelan people and world know the truth – Maduro clearly lost the 2024 presidential election and has no right to claim the presidency," Blinken said.

Later on Friday, Padrino led members of the armed forces in a separate ceremony, where they swore complete loyalty to Maduro.