Evaluating Iran’s calibrated response

This is not the first time that Iran and Israel have faced each other. One of the reasons for not expanding the level of tension between these two actors is the agreed level of action and reaction by both the countries.

After October 07, it seems that the Zionist regime is no longer a rational actor due to the shocking blow it received, along with the preference of Netanyahu's personal and party interests over other issues.

The number of killings and civilian casualties, the targeting of hospitals, and the shutting off of water, electricity, and food have made even the regime's traditional allies criticize its irrational behavior.

This irrational behavior emanated from the lack of accurate calculation of Iran's behavior in response to changing the red line drawn in the parties' actions. However, it is also possible that due to the understanding of Tehran's intention not to expand the war and engage in a conflict with economic problems and sanctions, there was hope for continued strategic patience from Iran.

Iran, whose security is based on deterrence, considered the attack on the embassy a serious violation of its existential interest.

In a situation where targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure has been among the goals of Israel and America for years, the main factor that caused such a decision was Iran's significant deterrence. 

However, after this attack on the embassy, what could be the perception about Iran's deterrence? Iran's determination to respond was inevitable; the question of its ability and design was raised.

Iran wanted to give a clear response to Israel in a situation where the Zionist regime was under pressure in the field of public opinion due to numerous violations of human rights, its widening gap with the West and the United States regarding the handling of operations, and future of Gaza.

All these elements indicate that Iran did not seek to expand the conflict with Israel and other actors to open a new front and disrupt this situation.

Therefore, the puzzle of the response to the attack on the consulate had two apparently contradictory and paradoxical variables.

First, the answer must be given in such a way that the damaged deterrence is revived and causes a change in the enemy's perception of this type of strike.

Second, the conflict should not spread, neither in the geographical field nor in the increasing of actors involved.

According to Iran's previous experiences reviving its deterrence, solving this problem and paradox have been two conceivable tools and leverages: 1) Designing a type of military operation that demonstrates its capability (at the tactical and design level) but not at the level of forcing the target to respond and 2) Through political tools. The uncertainty in the minds of the regional and global states regarding their goals should be reduced. 

Now, if we examine the True Promise operation with this statement, these things are evident. According to previous experiences, Iran and the Axis of Resistance have a specific knowledge and understanding of the weak points of the Zionist regime.

One of the most obvious of these weaknesses is the lack of strategic depth and a clear vulnerability regarding the number of strikes and the number of fronts. Also, using the principle of surprise usually increases the success rate.

However, Iran, knowing these cases, presented a designed response in which it did not involve all the actors of the resistance axis who were active during the past months; at the same time, it responded with minimal quantity and quality (according to the Israeli regime's statistics, Hamas in Al-Aqsa Storm operation had used about 3,500 projectiles) and of course, the start of the attack was already known hours ago.

At the same time, during the days before the operation, Tehran had expressed to the regional and extra-regional countries its intention to carry out this "calibrated response."

This operation has shown Iran's maturity in design and implementation. In general, it should be kept in mind that the main audience of deterrence is not public opinion but decision-makers.

Security officials must know the type of target selection, weapons, and tactics used better than anyone else. Until now, it seems that Western officials and experts have received this calibrated response.

 

Pakistan and Iran sign agreements

Pakistan and Iran agreed to increase the volume of bilateral trade to US$10 billion in the next five years following the signing of as many as eight agreements and memorandum of understanding (MoUs) for cooperation in different areas.

Speaking after witnessing the signing of the agreements and MoUs between the two sides, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that a fruitful discussion was held between the two sides including security and investment during the meeting. He said that Iran was among those countries which recognized Pakistan after 1947.

The premier said that these relations would now be used for the prosperity, mutual benefit, and welfare of the people of both sides as this day provides an opportunity for development.

President Raisi and the prime minister expressed strong and unequivocal condemnation of the indiscriminate use of force by Israeli occupation authorities in Gaza for over seven months and reiterated the call for international efforts to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, lifting of the siege and humanitarian relief to the people of Gaza.

The prime minister said that Indian atrocities are continuing in Kashmir as well, Iran has always raised its voice in favour of Kashmiris, and Kashmiris will definitely get their basic rights.

The President of Iran, Ibrahim Raisi, thanked the prime minister and the government of Pakistan for the warm welcome. He said that the UN and the UNSC and other international powers that talk about human rights have proved that they are inefficient and the UNSC could not deliver its task and responsibility with regard to Palestine. He said that today Muslims, people of Iran and Pakistan, and Muslims and non-Muslims are raising their voices all over the world against these human rights violations. He said that the struggle of Palestinians will be successful one day.

The Iranian president said that Pakistan and Iran relations are not only limited to the neighbourhood but are connected with civilization, culture, and religion, which cannot be separated.

The Iranian president said that there are great opportunities for the development of existing relations between Pakistan and Iran. In today’s meeting, it has been agreed to expand political, diplomatic, economic, and commercial relations to the maximum extent possible.

He said that Pakistan and Iran are fighting a war against terrorism, and cooperation between the two countries is necessary in this war, there is a need to work together against organized crime and narcotics etc. as these are threats to both countries and region. Pakistan and Iran are determined to strengthen their bilateral relations and added that the volume of trade and economic cooperation between Pakistan and Iran is very small.

He added,“We have decided to increase the volume of trade to $10 billion in the first phase.”

He said that the brave people of Iran have turned the illegal sanctions into opportunities that achieved development and prosperity for Iran, and Pakistan can benefit from Iran’s development and technological experiences. He said Pakistan and Iran have a common, long and joint border and emphasized for development and prosperity of the people living across the border by going beyond establishing border markets.

Earlier, the two sides signed agreements on judicial assistance in civil matters, veterinary and animal health and in security and MoUs on the establishment of a special economic zone, film exchanges, and cooperation between the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting and the Organization of Cinema and audio visual affairs of Iran, and cooperation between the Ministry of Overseas Pakistanis and Human Development, and Ministry of Cooperatives, labours and social welfare of Iran, as well as MoU between Pakistan Standards and Quality Control Authority and National Standards Organization of Iran, and MoU on legal cooperation.

Iranian President Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi has declared that Pakistan’s territory is respectable for his country, and both Tehran and Islamabad are committed to fight against terrorism and other manifestations of insecurity which endanger the two neighbours and the wider region.

Addressing a joint presser with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif after their delegation-level talks in Islamabad on Monday, President Raisi said the anti-terrorism cooperation between the two countries is inevitable.

President Raisi conveying best regards from the people and the Supreme Leader of Iran to the people of Pakistan said the great people of Pakistan had always been supporting the oppressed people of various areas of the world specially the people of Gaza and had always been defending Islam and raising their voice for the freedom of Quds Al-Sharif.

 

World Economic Forum Special Meeting

Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman will patronize the World Economic Forum (WEF) Special Meeting on Global Collaboration, Growth, and Energy for Development on April 28 and 29 in Riyadh.

More than 1000 global leaders, including heads of state and government, and thought leaders from across the public and private sectors, as well as from international organizations, academic institutions, and non-government organizations will participate in the two-day event convened by Saudi Arabia.

The Special Meeting, which will focus on three central themes of Global Collaboration, Growth, and Energy for Development, will address the most pressing present day global development challenges.

The sessions will witness productive dialogues to enhance global collaboration and stimulate collective international action to devise sustainable solutions in a world marked by growing social and economic disparities, as developed nations surpass pre-pandemic levels of activity, while emerging economies continue to play catch-up, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

Under Global Collaboration, dialogues will explore how to overcome today’s geopolitical upheavals and challenges, especially with the mounting humanitarian crises in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, while looking to foster inclusive dialogues between the Global South and North.

On the topic of Growth, the deliberations at Special Meeting will examine how the trends of transformation, innovation and economic policy-making are helping to create inclusive growth models through new investment frameworks, while looking to outline solutions to the deepening inequalities between developed and developing economies.

Under Energy for Development, leaders attending the meeting will focus on the need to achieve a net-zero future through an inclusive global energy transition.

The Special Meeting marks a continuation of the long-standing technical and policy-making collaboration between Saudi Arabia and the World Economic Forum, and builds on the impact of the Kingdom’s active participation and contributions at the Forum’s annual meetings held in Davos, Switzerland each year.

The agenda of the Special Meeting, which has been designed to revive the spirit of cooperation and collaboration, includes several panel discussions, workshops, and networking opportunities, and represents a unique convergence of global leaders and experts committed to forging a path towards a more resilient, sustainable, and equitable world.

The choice of Riyadh as the host for the WEF Special Meeting is tipped to be as a testament to Saudi Arabia’s global role in fostering international cooperation and collaboration. Since the launch of Saudi Vision 2030, Riyadh has emerged as a global capital and platform for thought leadership and action, innovation, and solutions that deliver worldwide impact, it was pointed out.

Iran to prosper despite external pressures

In mid-April, Iran launched a barrage of rockets and drones at Israel—an unprecedented direct attack that marks a major escalation of tensions between the two perennial geopolitical enemies. Yet even as the external threats to Iran’s economy have increased, the country’s energy sector has appeared to go from strength to strength, with news reports highlighting that Iranian oil exports have recently risen to a six-year high.

Iranian oil exports to rise

Iran’s oil production is estimated to average 3.1 million barrels per day this year, which would be the highest reading since 2018—the year then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions on Tehran. This will be in stark contrast to the Middle East’s other major oil exporters, which unlike Iran are mostly subject to OPEC curbs ‑ output from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE is seen falling this year. As a result, Iran’s economy is expected to grow more quickly than the Middle East and North Africa average in 2024.

Further sanctions to be ineffective

Though Western nations are reportedly readying further sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, they are likely to miss the mark, given Iran’s considerable experience and skill at averting sanctions, and the fact that almost all the country’s oil is already being sold to China, not the West. US President Joe Biden is unlikely to push hard to enforce sanctions given that lower oil supply could spur already-persistent inflationary pressures and dampen his chances of beating Trump in the November elections.

Iran’s economy to be subdued domestically

Deteriorating geopolitics may not overly harm the oil sector, but the same is not true of domestic demand. The national currency has depreciated by over a quarter so far this year in the parallel market as a result of political tensions, which will leave Iran with the unenviable record of having the region’s second-highest inflation rate this year after Lebanon. This will entrench already tough domestic economic conditions and hit consumer spending and investment in turn.

Conflict with Israel is the elephant in the room

The probability is that there will be no all-out war between Iran and Israel. If this were to occur—which is not off the table, given the hawkish military leadership in both countries and the high risk of political miscalculation—all bets would be off, and Iran’s economy would quickly wave goodbye to its current resilience.

 

United States godfathering Israel

Lately, the United States blocked a United Nations Security Council resolution that would have recognized a Palestinian state. Twelve members of the Security Council had voted in favor of the resolution, while two countries – the UK and Switzerland – abstained. The United States vetoed it.

The Palestinian Authority President, Mahmoud Abbas, sharply criticized the US veto, saying in a statement that it was unfair, immoral, and unjustified, and defies the will of the international community, which strongly supports the State of Palestine obtaining full membership in the United Nations.

Israel’s Foreign Minister Israel Katz praised the US for vetoing what he called a shameful proposal.

US State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel had announced earlier that the US would vote against the Security Council resolution, saying that the US has been very clear, consistently, that premature actions in New York, even with the best intentions, will not achieve statehood for the Palestinian people, referring to the headquarters of the United Nations.

He also noted there was no unanimity as to whether the Palestinians met the criteria for membership as a state in the UN, saying the US believes future statehood should be dependent on negotiations between Israel and representatives of the Palestinians.

“The most expeditious path towards statehood for the Palestinian people is through direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority with the support of the United States and other partners who share this goal,” Patel said.

Palestinian attempts for recognition as a full member state began in 2011. They are currently a non-member observer state, a status that was granted in November 2012.

At the time, UN Ambassador of the Palestinian Territories Riyad Mansour called the step a historic moment, adding that he hoped the Security Council will elevate itself to implanting the global consensus on the two-state solution by admitting the state of Palestine for full membership.

Israel’s UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan condemned Friday’s move as consideration of a Palestinian terror state.

“This won’t be a regular state. It will be a Palestine-Nazi state, an entity that achieved statehood despite being committed to terror and Israel’s annihilation,” Erdan added.

The Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs has expressed disappointment over the UN Security Council's failure to pass a draft resolution that would have granted full UN membership to the State of Palestine.

The ministry said this decision contributes to the ongoing challenges faced by the region, particularly by allowing the continuation of Israeli occupation forces' actions without repercussions.

The ministry emphasized that the obstruction of Palestine's full membership in the UN hinders peace efforts and allows violations of the international law to persist.

Saudi Arabia reiterated its call for the international community to take decisive actions to stop attacks on civilians in the Gaza Strip and to support the Palestinian right to self-determination and statehood. This state, according to Saudi Arabia, should be established within the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital, aligning with the parameters set forth by the Arab Peace Initiative and other relevant international resolutions.

 

Israel-Iran encounters and US military strategy

The US military's success in helping Israel stop a recent massive wave of Iranian missiles and drones might suggest Washington is well prepared militarily for whatever comes next as Iran and Israel move from shadow warfare to direct confrontation.

Current and former US officials say US forces are not positioned for a major, sustained Middle East conflict and the Pentagon may have to revisit assumptions about military needs in the region if the crisis deepens.

"I don't think we have all the forces that we would want to support Israel if there was a direct war between them and Iran," said Michael Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East under the Trump administration.

Though Tehran has indicated it had no plans to retaliate for an apparent Israeli strike on Friday, the tit-for-tat attacks have raised fears of an unpredictable regional war that the United States has sought to prevent.

In the months since an attack by Hamas militants on Israel triggered a war in Gaza that has ignited unrest throughout the Middle East. The United States has rushed thousands of US service members to a region that had seen a steadily declining US presence over years.

Many of those new US troops are on warships and aircraft that move in and out of the region, and are only temporarily deployed. That US strategy to rely on surge forces could be tested now Iran and Israel have broken the taboo of open military strikes against each other.

"What it means for the US military is that I think we have to revisit this idea of what are the necessary, sustainable military capabilities that we have to maintain in the region," said Joseph Votel, a retired four star Army general who led US troops in the Middle East.

Votel and other former officials said the US military's success in downing Iran's drones and missiles last Saturday was presumably aided by detailed US intelligence that allowed the Pentagon to anticipate the timing and targets of Iran's attack.

"I think the bigger concern is our ability to be responsive over a sustained period of time," Votel said.

US officials say Iran does not appear to want an all-out war with Israel, and Tehran has played down Friday's strike. Still, experts warn the situation is unpredictable, particularly as long as the Israel-Hamas conflict rages.

US Army General Michael "Erik" Kurilla, the current head of Central Command, told lawmakers last month that he had requested more troops than the Pentagon had sent to his region, which President Joe Biden's administration has said is a lower priority than the challenge from China.

In written testimony to the House Armed Services Committee, Kurilla said a dangerous shortfall in US intelligence assets, targeting expertise and linguists contributes to gaps and seams in our ability to detect and disrupt plots, increasing freedom of movement for violent extremist organizations.

Although Kurilla's comments appeared more focused on Afghanistan, some intelligence shortfalls have already affected US strategy since the start of the war in Gaza.

For example, a lack of detail about Houthi weapons stockpiles before the Iran-backed group started attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea has made it hard to determine the effect of months of strikes on the group's arsenal of missiles and drones, said officials.

Still, sending more US troops to the Middle East and bolstering intelligence assets longer-term could prove difficult, officials say.

"Troops are spread around Europe and those that aren't are going through overdue maintenance cycles," one US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"And Asia is supposed to be the focus."

Another official said it was still unclear whether the US military was prepared to pull forces from Asia or Europe, despite the increase in tensions.

Prior to October, the last time the United States surged thousands of troops into the Middle East was under former President Donald Trump, during a series of escalatory actions that culminated in the US killing of Iran's top general and a retaliatory missile attack by Tehran on a US base in Iraq.

The first US official noted that the surge of troops in 2019 and 2020 was possible because, unlike today, Washington did not have to dedicate so many personnel and resources to Europe, a new reality following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Mulroy said the United States should strengthen its position in the Middle East without abandoning its China-first focus.

 

 

Western media: Bias against Palestinians

A series of studies have been published in recent weeks analyzing coverage of the war in Gaza, and the results reveal an overwhelming bias against Palestinians.

In the first six weeks of the war, the New York Times, Washington Post, and Los Angeles Times used the terms "slaughter" and "massacre" 60 times more frequently in reference to Israelis than Palestinians, despite Palestinian deaths outnumbering those of Israelis by an order of magnitude.

CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News mentioned Israeli deaths four times as often as Palestinians during roughly the same time frame.

And on the four major Sunday morning TV talk shows, Israeli guests outnumbered Palestinians 10 to 1.

In the words of Mehdi Hasan — the former MSNBC journalist whose show was canceled after he committed the unpardonable sin of asking tough questions of a senior Israeli government official — "What else do you call that other than the deliberate dehumanization of the Palestinian people?"