Wednesday 31 May 2023

Japan partially shuts down refining capacity

Japan has shut down one million barrels per day (bpd) refining capacity temporarily out of 3.3 bpd due to turnarounds and technical issues across, this translates into shutting down 31% of the country's overall capacity.

Japan's largest refiner Eneos has shut down 35% of its oil refining capacity, shutting down four plants with a total capacity of 618,100 bpd. The company has an overall 1.7 million bpd capacity across its ten units, which accounts for over 52% of Japan's total oil refining capacity.

Eneos shut its 145,000 bpd Sendai refinery on May 28 and its 141,000 bpd Sakai plant on May 17 for turnarounds. The two refineries are expected to restart operations in mid-July and late-July, respectively.

The company was also forced to shut its 203,100 bpd Kashima refinery on May 24 and 129,000 bpd Chiba plant on May 12 because of technical problems. The restart dates of the Kashima and Chiba plants are still unknown.

Another refiner Idemitsu also shut its 190,000 bbd Chiba refinery on April 28 for a scheduled maintenance. It is expected to last around two months, said market participants. Idemitsu's 70,000 bpd Keihin refinery operated by Toa Oil has delayed resuming operations after it started a turnaround in January this year.

Fuji Oil on May 23 has halted operations at its 143,000 bpd Sodegaura plant for a turnaround, with the shutdown planned for a month.

Cosmo Oil was forced to halt the 102,000 bpd No.2 crude distillation unit at its 177,000 bpd Chiba plant on May 16 because of some technical difficulties but resumed operations on May 28.

Japanese refiners have struggled with stable refining operations as their plants are getting old. Ageing refineries cause technical issues, and firms need more time for turnarounds to avoid unexpected shutdowns. Earthquakes also trigger technical issues at old refineries in Japan.

Eneos said earlier this month in its revised mid-term strategy that it has raised its budget for refinery maintenance during April 2023-March 2026 by 30% compared to the April 2020-March 2023 fiscal years, allocating US$3 billion to lift operating rates.

Lower runs also weighed on Eneos and Cosmo's profits from fossil fuel-related businesses in the 2022-23 fiscal year. Idemitsu's refinery issues also led to negative financial impacts, the firm stated in its April-December 2022 results.

 

United States: Bill passed raising debt ceiling

The House on Wednesday night passed a bipartisan bill to suspend the debt ceiling, overcoming vocal opposition from conservative and liberal lawmakers and bringing the country one step closer to avoiding an economy-rattling default ahead of next week’s deadline.

The legislation — which was crafted through negotiations between President Biden, Speaker Kevin McCarthy and their designees — cleared the chamber in a bipartisan 314-117 vote and now heads to the Senate, where leaders are hoping for swift consideration as the default deadline looms.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the US could run out of cash to pay its bills by June 5, 2023, a situation that would plunge the country into its first-ever default — which economists and administration officials have warned would be catastrophic for the economy.

The bill suspends the debt limit through January 01, 2025, while also implementing a slew of cost-cutting measures including new spending caps over the next two years and a clawback of billions of dollars of unspent COVID-19 funds. It also includes permitting reform, puts an end date on Biden’s pause on student loan repayments and beefs up work requirements for federal assistance programs.

Wednesday’s vote marked a victory for McCarthy, who led his conference in passing a sweeping debt limit bill in April, got Biden to the negotiating table after the president for months insisted on a clean debt ceiling increase, and succeeded in narrowing those talks to just him, the president and their appointed deputies. McCarthy’s deputies then extracted concessions from the White House refused proposals like increasing taxes and worked furiously to sell the ultimate agreement to his conference.

“Passing the Fiscal Responsibility Act is a crucial first step for putting America back on track,” McCarthy said on the House floor Wednesday. “It does what is responsible for our children, what is possible in divided government, and what is required by our principles and promises.”

“Yes, it may not include everything we need to do,” he continued, “but it is absolutely what we need to do right now.”

But the deal simultaneously heightened the chances that McCarthy — who fought for his Speakership over 15 ballots in January — could face a challenge to his gavel from disgruntled conservatives who felt betrayed by the agreement he struck with the White House.

The vote also notched a win for Biden, who achieved the Democrats’ goal of punting any future debt limit increase beyond the 2024 presidential election.

Both camps, however, saw their fair share of opposition.

Seventy-one Republicans and 46 Democrats voted against the bill in the House — mostly liberals and conservatives protesting specific provisions of the bill. Their numbers, however, were never a threat to the bill’s passage because of a hodgepodge of moderates and leadership allies who — despite some acknowledging the bill wasn’t exactly what they wanted — threw their support behind the measure.

Conservatives, generally speaking, were frustrated with the lackluster magnitude of spending cuts in the agreement and the absence of several provisions that were in the debt limit bill — titled the Limit, Save, Grow Act — that House Republicans passed in April. 

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Tuesday estimated that the bipartisan debt limit deal could reduce projected deficits by about US$1.5 trillion over the next decade, a meager assessment compared to the roughly US$4.8 trillion the nonpartisan scorekeeper said the GOP bill would save.

Ahead of the high-stakes vote, more than 30 Republicans went on the record saying they would not vote for the bill, with some encouraging their GOP colleagues to join them in opposition.

“I want to be very clear: Not one Republican should vote for this deal. Not one,” Rep. Chip Roy said during a press conference Tuesday. “If you’re out there watching this, every one of my colleagues, I’m gonna be very clear: Not one Republican should vote for this deal.”

“It is a bad deal,” he added.

Liberals, on the other hand, voiced concern with the size and scope of spending cuts in the bill, and accused Republicans of holding the US economy hostage by forcing cost-cutting provisions in conjunction with the debt limit hike.

Work requirements also emerged as a particularly controversial topic throughout negotiations — which McCarthy dubbed a red line and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called a nonstarter. 

The legislation implements new work requirements for recipients of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program — formerly known as food stamps — who are aged 50 to 54 and do not have dependents, and it includes some additional work requirements for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program.

The bill does, however, include food stamp work requirement exemptions for individuals experiencing homelessness, veterans, and those 24 years or younger who were in foster care when they turned 18.

The CBO estimated that the work requirement changes would actually increase spending by US$2.1 billion over the next 10 years.

The bill came to the floor for a final vote on Wednesday after a drama-filled procedural vote that drove Democrats to trigger an emergency effort to help Republicans advance the bill.

While votes on rules, which govern debate over legislation, typically break along party lines, 29 Republicans broke from the GOP and opposed the rule on Wednesday as a way to boycott the debt limit bill. Shortly before the vote closed — as the bill was poised to be blocked — 52 Democrats threw their support behind the rule, bringing the final vote to 241-187 and allowing the debt limit bill to advance to the floor for a full vote.

“From the very beginning, House Democrats were clear that we would not allow extreme MAGA Republicans to default on our debt, crash the economy or trigger a job-killing recession. Under the leadership of President Joe Biden, Democrats kept our promise. And we will continue to do what is necessary to put people over politics,” Jeffries said on the House floor Wednesday.

He noted the last-minute scrambling on the debt limit bill.

“The question that remains right now is what will the House Republican majority do? It appears that you may have lost control of the floor of the House of Representatives. Earlier today 29 house republicans voted to default on our nation’s debt and against an agreement that you negotiated,” Jeffries said. “It’s an extraordinary act that indicates just the nature of the extremism that is out of control on the other side of the aisle.”

House passage of the Biden-McCarthy deal puts Congress closer to capping off a months-long saga over the debt ceiling, which began when the nation hit its borrowing limit on January 19, forcing the Treasury Department to begin implementing extraordinary measures so the country could continue paying its bills and stave off a default.

And it changes the political dynamics in the House GOP for McCarthy. 

McCarthy in January had made concessions and commitments on House rules and spending in order to secure the Speakership. The various factions of the conference had generally gotten along in the months since, but the right flank’s disappointment in the debt limit deal shattered that.

Rep. Dan Bishop even called for a vote to oust McCarthy as Speaker – though did not commit to making that move.

Allies of McCarthy hope that the discontent will blow over. 

“I think you’ll see that there’s still a broad cross-section of this conference that wants to try to figure out a way to do things together,” Rep. Dusty Johnson said.

McCarthy, for his part, is brushing aside the looming threat.

“Everybody has the ability to do what they want. But if you think I’m gonna wake up in the morning and be ever worried about that?” he told reporters Wednesday. “No, doesn’t bother me.”

 

 

Transition from OPEC to OPEC Plus

OPEC was founded in 1960 in Baghdad by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela with an aim of coordinating petroleum policies and securing fair and stable prices. Now, it includes 13 countries, which are mainly from the Middle East and Africa. They produce around 30% of the world's oil.

There have been some challenges to OPEC's influence over the years, often resulting in internal divisions, and a global push towards cleaner energy sources and a move away from fossil fuels could ultimately diminish its dominance.

OPEC became OPEC Plus in 2016 after joining hands with 10 of the world's major non-OPEC members, including Russia.

OPEC+ Plus represents around 40% of world oil production and its main objective is to regulate the supply of oil to the world market. The leaders are Saudi Arabia and Russia, which produce around 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil each.

OPEC member states' exports make up around 60% of global petroleum trade. In 2021, OPEC estimated that its member countries accounted for more than 80% of the world's proven oil reserves.

Because of the large market share, the OPEC decisions affect oil prices. Its members meet regularly to decide how much oil to sell on global markets.

As a result, when they lower supply when demand falls, oil prices tend to rise. Prices tend to fall when the group decides to supply more oil to the market.

On April 02, 2023 OPEC Plus agreed to deepen crude oil production cuts to 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd) or 3.7% of global demand, until the end of 2023, which helped to push up oil prices by about US$9 a barrel to above US$87 per barrel over the following days, but Brent prices have since lost those gains.

During the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Arab members of OPEC imposed an embargo against the United States in retaliation for its decision to re-supply the Israeli military, as well as other countries that supported Israel. The embargo banned petroleum exports to those nations and introduced cuts in oil production.

The oil embargo pressured an already strained US economy which had grown dependent on imported oil. Oil prices jumped, causing high fuel costs for consumers and fuel shortages in the United States. The embargo also brought the United States and other countries to the brink of a global recession.

In 2020, during COVID-19 lockdowns around the world, crude oil prices slumped. After that development, OPEC Plus slashed oil production by 10 million barrels a day, which is equivalent to around 10% of global production, to try to bolster prices.

The current members of OPEC are: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, Angola, Libya, Nigeria, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Venezuela.

Non-OPEC countries in the global alliance of OPEC Plus are represented by Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Brunei, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, South Sudan and Sudan.

Tuesday 30 May 2023

United States and South Korea in talks to release frozen Iranian assets

Officials from the United States and South Korea are holding talks over unfreezing Iranian funds held in South Korean banks, according to a South Korean daily.

The talks are focused on releasing the US$7 billion Iranian funds that have long been blocked in South Korean banks due to US sanctions on Iran. The funds are oil revenues dating back to the period prior to the re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran in May 2018.

Citing diplomatic and government sources, The Korea Economic Daily said, “Korean and US government officials are involved in working-level discussions under Washington’s leadership to unfreeze the Iranian funds.”

The newspaper said the funds, if released, would only be used for public and humanitarian purposes such as UN dues and COVID-19 vaccines.

“If all goes to plan, we expect our strained relationship with Iran to improve significantly,” said a Seoul government official.

If talks turn out to be successful, the frozen money will be allowed to be transferred to Iranian bank branches in neighboring Middle Eastern countries, not directly to Iran, to monitor the flow and use of the funds, sources said.

The Korean newspaper also pointed to media speculation over the concessions that Iran is expected to make in exchange for getting its money unfrozen. It said that media reports alleged that Iran would release US prisoners and limit uranium enrichment levels to 60% in return. These speculations have so far not been confirmed by officials.

The frozen Iranian funds have been the biggest obstacle to improvement in Tehran-Seoul relations. They have also been a source of tensions between the two countries.

South Korea seems to be willing to improve its relations with Iran by releasing its funds. “Analysts said if the US$7 billion Iranian funds are released, it would significantly improve Seoul’s relations with Tehran, an energy and military power in the Middle East,” the Korean newspaper wrote.

“There is nothing South Korea can gain from becoming an enemy of Iran,” said Sung Il-kwang, a Korea University professor. “Korea will benefit from gaining access to Iran’s huge market.”

 

QatarEnergy to sign long term LNG supply deal with Bangladesh

QatarEnergy will sign a long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply deal with Bangladesh's state-owned gas company Petrobangla on Thursday, the second Asian sales deal to be sealed for Qatar's North Field expansion project.

The 15-year agreement is for the supply of 2 million tons annually, Petrobangla's Chairman Zanendra Nath Sarker told Reuters.

Supplies are set to start in January 2026, he said.

The agreement will be one of many to come this year as state-owned QatarEnergy secures sales for its mega expansion of North Field, a source with direct knowledge of the new contract agreement, who did not wish to be identified, said.

Qatar is the world's top LNG exporter and competition for LNG has ramped up since the start of the Ukraine war, with Europe in particular needing vast amounts to help replace Russian pipeline gas that used to make up almost 40% of the continent's imports.

But Asia, with an appetite for long-term sales and purchase agreements, has been ahead so far in securing gas from Qatar's massive production expansion project.

This will be Bangladesh's second long-term deal with Qatar as it desperately looks for long-term LNG deals at a cheaper rate after prices spiked following the Ukraine war last year.

The contract will be QatarEnergy's second to Asia since it started selling the gas expected to come on stream from the North Field expansion project.

The two-phase expansion plan will raise Qatar's liquefaction capacity to 126 million tons per year by 2027 from 77 million.

Qatar's first Asian deal, with Sinopec, the longest to be signed at 27 years for the supply of 4 million tons a year, was followed by the state-owned Chinese company taking a 5% stake in the equivalent of one North Field East LNG train.

QatarEnergy's sales and purchase agreements to supply Germany with around 2 million tons of LNG annually through a partnership with ConocoPhillips cover at least a 15-year period.

Bangladesh has a 10-year LNG import deal with Oman Trading International. That LNG is priced at 11.9% of the three-month average price of Brent crude oil plus a constant price of 40 cents per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

Under its first 15-year deal with Qatar, Bangladesh pays 12.65% of the three-month average price of Brent oil plus a constant of 50 cents per mmBtu.

The North Field expansion project will help guarantee long-term supplies of gas globally. North Field is part of the world's biggest gas field that Qatar shares with Iran, which calls its share South Pars.

QatarEnergy chief Saad al-Kaabi said last week there was big demand for LNG and that he expects by the end of the year to have signed supply deals for all the gas expected to come on stream from the North Field expansion.

 

China to invest in Suez Canal Economic Zone

Chinese companies have pledged to invest over US$3 billion in new Suez-based projects.

Egypt's Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) secured the investments from Chinese companies active in chemical, textile and apparel, power, pipes, and iron and steel industries. The investment agreements and commitments were secured during the visit by SCZone Chairman, Walid Gamal El-Din.

Focus of the deals appears to be the Suez Economic and Trade Cooperation Zone (SETC), an industrial estate near the city of Suez, jointly established by the governments of China and Egypt, for the purposes of inviting Chinese companies to set up industries, as part of the Belt and Road project.

The SETC was built by the Tianjin Economic-Technological Development Area (TEDA). The TEDA Suez zone was created in 2008 and extended in 2016 during a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt.

Last week, the SCZone delegation held discussions with Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co, regarding a proposed US$2 billion ductile cast iron pipe manufacturing plant in the Sokhna Industrial Zone, Zawya said.

“The first phase of the project will have an annual production capacity of 250,000 tons of ductile iron pipes, which is expected to increase to 500,000 tons per year in the second phase,” it said.

Shandong Tianyi Company planned to establish bromine and caustic soda production plants in TEDA Suez, with a total investment of $310 million.

“The bromine production plant, valued at US$110 million, will cover an area of 270,000 square meters and have an annual production capacity of 140,000 tons,” it said.

Several other projects in textiles, power generation, apparel and fashion and other industries, worth tens of millions of dollars, to be located in Suez, Sokhna and Abu Khalifa were also announced.

While in China, Gamal El-Dien also met with officials from the China-Africa Development Fund, to discuss investments in the pharmaceutical, automotive, and green fuel industries. His counterparts expressed readiness to finance Chinese investment projects in SCZone, including those related to green hydrogen.

 

Fuel prices likely to fall globally

Global prices of diesel and motor gasoline have corrected significantly by 46% and 50% since the start of the calendar year 2023, due to rising concerns of global recession majorly emanating from Western/European front, to presently stand at US$86/US$90 per barrel, for gasoil and gasoline respectively.

Refiner’s main input, crude oil selloffs (Arab Light/ WTI/ Brent down 9.5%/9.8%/10.7% since start January 2023) have also remained rampant throughout CYTD as an overall direct repercussion of US-Fed’s hawkish stance (debt ceiling conundrum, banking crisis) resulting in significant stockpile build up over the previous week, softer demand in China amid COVID concerns, availability of low cost Russian crude towards China and India and finally easing prices of RLNG globally (US$9.3/mmbtu, down 60%YoY), resulting in power generation demand for diesel to fall drastically.

Moving forward, analysts expect gasoline cracks to gain strength and remain elevated with the onset of summer driving season beginning 1st June in the western front, where-in last time both gasoline/gasoil spreads peaked during July last year.

Overall, heightened geopolitical tensions will continue to provide major support to prices and in case OPEC Plus stands firm on it supply cut decisions, the prices may possibly increase further.

Naturally, domestic refinery margins have fallen sharply from their multi year highs from US$26/ US$45/bbl for MS/ HSD back in June2022, to presently stand at US$-0.2/2.6/bbl (down 100%/94%).

This has subsequently pushed domestic ex-refinery prices down by 10%/ 27% from peaks of PKR224/ PKR276 per liter in last summer, for MS/ HSD, even with the currency depreciating by 42% during this time.

Using the aforementioned space, IFEM margin was pushed into the positive territory as well which had been mostly negative for several months now.

Local refiners are also expected to reap benefits of the aforementioned fuel inflation expected during the summer season, which pushed the domestic cracking spreads as high as US$25/ US$45 barrel last year, for MS/ HSD respectively. Assuming Arabian Gulf gasoline/ gasoil prices increase by +10% from current levels, this is expected to raise domestic MS/ HSD prices by PKR18/ PKR21 per liter, respectively.

Outlook: Moving forward, sector profitability may remain firm in the near term as refined product margins are expected to remain strong during 2Q/3QFY23 alongside healthy inventory gains amidst increasing ex-refinery prices, but may eventually cool off post summers and the commencement of Middle Eastern capacities (one million bpd capacity inclusion beginning October 2323).

Although, worsening furnace oil yields in the wake of falling FO demand may be a risk to look out for as FO crack spreads presently stand at negative US$28/bbl.