Trump proposes US-Canada merger

According to The Hill, President-elect Trump on Monday raised the idea of a ‘merged’ United States and Canada after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation.

Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social site that, if both nations were to become one, "there would no Tariffs" and that "taxes would go way down."

He also said Canada would be "Totally Secure” from the threat of the Russian and Chinese Ships that are constantly surrounding them," and argued many Canadians would "Love" the idea of being the “51st State” of the United States.

Trump added that the merger would be beneficial for the US, because it would “no longer suffer” from “massive Trade Deficits” and subsidies that it provides to Canada.

Trudeau, who has served as Canada’s prime minister for nine years, announced Monday that he would be resigning before general elections later this year.

His Liberal Party, which Trudeau has led for 11 years, is polling poorly, and the leader has faced mounting crises, including the resignation of a top minister and a confrontation with Trump’s 25 percent tariff plan, among other issues.

 

India: Wheat prices surge to record high

According to Reuters, in India wheat prices surged to a record high on Monday. Due to dwindling supplies, flour mills are struggling to secure the grain to operate at full capacity.

The record prices are likely to lift retail inflation, which eased in November last year after surging to a 14-month high in October, and could influence the central bank's decision on interest rate cuts.

"Wheat supplies are limited in the market. Even after paying record prices, flour mills are unable to secure enough to operate at full capacity," said Ajay Goyal, managing director of Shivaji Roller Flour Mills.

In December 2024, New Delhi lowered the limit on wheat stocks that traders and millers can hold to help boost the grain's availability and moderate prices.

But the curbs failed to bring down prices, which were trading around 33,000 rupees (US$384.66) per metric ton in New Delhi, up from 24,500 rupees in April and far above the government fixed minimum support price of 22,750 rupees for last season's crop.

The stock limit failed to improve supplies and bring down prices, indicating that private players are holding few supplies, and the government needs to sell more wheat from its reserves to bulk consumers, said Pramod Kumar, a flour miller.

The state-run Food Corporation of India (FCI) is selling 100,000 metric tons of wheat to bulk consumers every week, but this is not sufficient to meet demand, as private players' sales are falling, Kumar said.

In November, the government announced plans to sell 2.5 million tons of wheat from state reserves to bulk consumers in the year ending March 2025. This is significantly lower than the nearly 10 million tons sold in the previous season.

The surplus wheat with the FCI is limited, preventing it from offering more to private players, said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.

Wheat stocks in state warehouses totaled 20.6 million tons at the start of December, slightly higher than the previous year's 19.2 million tons, but far below five-year average of 29.5 million

Nippon Steel sues US president Biden

According to Nikkei Asia, Nippon Steel and US Steel have filed a lawsuit against US President Joe Biden and other senior administration officials for exercising "unlawful political influence" over the Japanese company's proposed acquisition of US Steel, as well as a separate suit against rival steel company Cleveland-Cliffs, its CEO and the president of the United Steelworkers (USW) labor union.

In its suit against the US government, Nippon Steel asked the court to set aside Biden's order on Friday blocking the buyout, and to instruct the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to conduct a new review of the US$14.9 billion deal for Nippon Steel to purchase US Steel.

There has never been a case where a prominent Japanese company has sued the US president.

A statement on the lawsuit released Monday by Nippon Steel and US Steel claimed the month-long review by CFIUS, an interagency panel that reviews potential economic security concerns regarding foreign companies' investment, violated the constitutional guarantee of due process.

Nippon Steel, together with its wholly owned subsidiary Nippon Steel North America and US Steel, filed the petition with the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit against CFIUS as well as Biden, CFIUS Chairperson and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and Attorney General Merrick Garland.

According to the statement, Biden, whose Democratic Party draws strong support from labor unions, "ignored the rule of law" to try to achieve his own political objective of winning the US presidential election in 2024 with support from the USW.

The companies said they were "disappointed" to see "a clear and improper exploitation of the country's national security apparatus in an effort to help win an election and repay political favors."

Nippon Steel also plans to argue that certain processes were unreasonable -- namely that CFIUS demanded the company's response in a shorter period than is standard and did not engage in substantive discussions that offered any counterproposals or written comment to its proposals to address security concerns.

Nippon Steel and two other companies have filed a separate civil suit in the US District Court for the Western District of Pennsylvania against Cleveland-Cliffs, its CEO Lourenco Goncalves, and USW President David McCall, alleging they were "engaging in a coordinated series of anticompetitive and racketeering activities" to block the acquisition as a part of "an illegal campaign to monopolize critical domestic steel markets."

Cleveland-Cliffs is the second-largest steel company in the US. It announced its intention to acquire US Steel, but it was outbid by Nippon Steel.

"The illegal agreement is part of a 'merge or murder' strategy by which Cliffs has sought to force an anticompetitive merger with US Steel or severely weaken it as a competitor," Nippon Steel said.

Nippon Steel argues that Cleveland-Cliffs, Goncalves and McCall's "anticompetitive and unlawful actions were brazen and obvious -- consisting of public lies, pressure tactics, and an illegal antitrust conspiracy."

The company is seeking injunctions of such activities and substantial damages.

Nippon Steel believes evidence of these actions can be presented as grounds for the administrative litigation against Biden and others. Using an unusual multiple-suit approach, the company intends to gather evidence through the civil lawsuit for the administrative lawsuit.

The Japanese company also believes there is evidence that Cleveland-Cliffs and the USW, which wanted to prevent the acquisition, had multiple exchanges of correspondence with Biden, including ones that indicate the existence of a deal for the USW to announce its support for Biden, and later for Vice President Kamala Harris, in the presidential election if the acquisition by Nippon Steel was blocked.

Nippon Steel said it would hold a news conference in Tokyo on Tuesday.

Biden's order to block the deal has roused criticism from the Japanese government. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said in a news conference on Monday that the incident has prompted the nation's industrial sector to "voice concerns about future investments between the US and Japan."

"This is something we must take very seriously," Ishiba said. "It would be inappropriate for the Japanese government to comment on the management of individual companies that have been under review under U.S. domestic law, but we would like to urge the U.S. government to take action to eliminate these concerns."

Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yoji Muto told reporters on Monday that Biden's decision was "extremely regrettable and difficult to understand." The minister said he "personally lobbied the Biden administration" to address the strong concerns of the Japanese business community about investment in the U.S., adding that "strong economic ties form the foundation of bilateral relations."

 

US deputy special envoy for Middle East peace

US President-elect Donald Trump on Friday named Morgan Ortagus as deputy special presidential envoy for Middle East peace, joining real estate executive Steven Witkoff, who was appointed special envoy in November 2024.

"She will hopefully be an asset to Steve, a great leader and talent, as we seek to bring calm and prosperity to a very troubled region. I expect great results, and soon," Trump announced on his social media platform, Truth Social.

Ortagus, the former State Department spokesperson during Trump’s first term, expressed her gratitude for the appointment.

"To be given the opportunity to once again represent my country and the Trump Administration in a crucial diplomatic role is a dream come true," Ortagus wrote on X.

She emphasized the importance of the US fostering "peace and stability" in the Middle East, calling her new role a "small" contribution to that goal.

Ortagus served as State Department spokesperson from 2019 to 2021 under then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Before that, she worked as a financial intelligence analyst at the Treasury Department and served as deputy US Treasury attaché in Saudi Arabia from 2010 to 2011.

Saudi oil exports rise to 6.33 bpd

Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports witnessed a significant increase in December 2024, reaching about 6.33 million barrels per day (bpd), recording their highest level in nine months, reports Bloomberg.

The rise came after the OPEC Plus alliance agreed to postpone the start of easing planned production cuts until April, and slow the addition of supplies to the market.

According to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, November 2024 export estimates were revised to 6.16 million bpd, compared with an initial estimate of 6.17 million bpd.

As against this, preliminary data from Kepler showed that Saudi oil exports in November 2024 were 6.06 million bpd, while Vortexa estimated flows at about 6.05 million bpd.

As per the agreement reached by energy ministers of OPEC Plus, current production targets have been extended until the end of 2026, with a slight increase gradually implemented starting in April for the UAE.

The first round of additional voluntary cuts has also been extended until the end of 2026. A plan to phase out a second set of voluntary cuts of about 2.2 million bpd has also been delayed three times so far, and is now set to start in April at a slower pace than previously agreed, with production restored over 18 months instead of the 12 months planned previously.

Syrian people must be aware of dangers

Ammar Hakim, leader of the Iraqi National Wisdom Movement, Saudi spoke on Friday at the ceremony marking the anniversary of the martyrdom of Ayatollah Sayyed Mohammad Baqir al-Hakim and the "Iraqi Martyr's Day" held at the martyr's shrine in Najaf Ashraf. He called on the Syrian people to be aware of the dangers.

He stressed the significance of fostering positive relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, asserting that their cooperation strengthens and dignifies the region.

He emphasized that cooperation between these two Muslim countries strengthens the region and should not be overlooked despite challenges. It is essential to support and foster constructive initiatives between them, aiming to establish long-term economic ties and shared interests through Iraq for the benefit of our nation and the wider Arab and Islamic world.

The current instability in the region, driven by repeated attacks from the Zionist regime on Lebanon and Gaza and threats to regional sovereignty, along with the complex situation in Syria, necessitates vigilance. Any shift in the balance of power will impact the challenges facing Iraq. As a central part of this region, we are at the heart of these complex challenges, the cleric emphasized.

Al-Hakim emphasized that Iraq's security and stability will not be compromised, and the nation will not return to a period of conflicts. He reiterated a zero-tolerance stance against anyone seeking to undermine Iraq's security and sovereignty. 

He cautioned against infiltrators and urged vigilance against those propagating misleading slogans that threaten Iraqi unity. The leader of the National Wisdom Movement stated that Iraq's foreign policy is based on non-interference and that its territory will not be used to threaten neighboring countries or the region.

"However, this does not imply that Iraq will remain passive regarding critical issues facing the Arab and Islamic world. Our nation will not tolerate oppression, and we will not stand by in the face of any aggression or humiliation," Hakim stated.

The leader of the Iraqi National Wisdom Movement emphasized the need to support the Syrian people and their country's independence. He stated that Iraq should welcome the Syrian people and urged them to recognize potential dangers while leveraging Iraq's political experience to build a strong, inclusive government.

Hakim emphasized the importance of ongoing support for Palestine, stating that the Palestinian issue will always be a priority for Iraqis. He affirmed the commitment to the Palestinian people's right to their land, which was taken by the Zionist occupying regime.

 

PSX benchmark index up 5.6%WoW

At Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) positive momentum continued, with the benchmark KSE-100 index posting a weekly gain of 6,236 points or 5.6%WoW and closing at 117,587 points on Friday, January 03, 2025. The rally was led by the Banks, Fertilizers, and Investment & Securities cos.

The removal of ADR tax and implementation of additional taxation resolved uncertainty over the taxation regime, fostered optimism as banks would shift focus toward deposit growth.

Higher dividend expectations from fertilizer stocks and ongoing restructuring further bolstered investors’ confidence.

On the macro front, inflation eased to a 7-year low of 4.1%, taking real positive interest rates to 890bps, implying further potential rate cut in the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Statements from the Finance Ministry and the Prime Minister hinting at interest rates dropping to single digits further fueled this optimism.

A 14%YoY increase in imports widened the trade deficit to US$2.4 billion at end December 2024. Meanwhile, 1QFY25 GDP growth stood at 0.9%, driven by Agriculture and Services sector growth of 1.2% and 1.4%, respectively, while the Industrial sector contracted by 1.0%.

Prime Minister launched home-grown Economic Revival Plan during the week, targeting GDP growth of 6% by FY28, boosting exports to US$60 billion, and taking immediate measures to reduce electricity cost.

Market participation also improved significantly, with average daily traded volume rising by 32%WoW to 1.04 billion shares from 0.79 billion shares a week ago.

Foreign Exchange Reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) declined by US$143 million WoW to US$11.7 billion as of December 27, 2024.

Other major news flow during the week included: 1) FBR falls PKR386 billion short of revenue target in first half of the current financial year, 2) Sale of 15% stake in Reko Diq to be finalized soon, 3) OMC volumes for the month of December were up 3%YoY while 1HFY25 volumes were up 4%YoY, 4) Local cement sales decline 4.8%YoY in December, and 5) IMF refuses reduced sales tax rates for refinery sector.

Engineering, Textile Spinning and Banks were amongst the top performers, while Sugar & Allied and Tobacco sectors were laggards.

Major selling was recorded by Companies and Other organizations with a net sell of US$11.3million and US$9.1 million, respectively. Mutual Fund absorbed most of the selling with a net buy of US$16.9 million.

Top performing scrips of the week were: i) PGLC, PSX, EFERT, DAWH, and MTL, while laggards included: TRG, FCCL, AICL, INDU, and PABC.

Market is expected to maintain its positive trajectory, driven by an anticipated shift of funds from fixed income securities to equities amid falling fixed income yields.

With easing inflation, the upcoming MPC meeting will remain a key focus.

Over the medium term, the KSE-100 is anticipated to sustain its upward momentum through CY25, where Pakistan’s leading brokerage house, AKD Securities forecasts KSE-100 Index to reach 165,215 points by December 2025, primarily driven by the strong profitability of fertilizer companies, higher sustainable ROEs of banks and improving cash flows of E&Ps and OMCs, benefitting from falling interest rates.